1. Anita Rubin:
WHEEL, ARROW OR SPIRAL?
Systems Thinking in Futures Studies
TUTU-3 Intensive Course 2010

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The
Hierarchical
Nature of
Reality

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Systems Thinking is ...
…a way to understand phenomena and events, their
characteristics and the relationships between them as
one entity;
…a family of methods/methodology which creates a
flexible and manifold tool to help human problem-
solving in practice.

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Cyclic (circular) time
April JulyJan Oct Jan
warm
cool
hot
cold
Cyclical events
time
• Is based on the alternation of night
and day / periodic system of
seasons;
• distinctive to societies before
industrialisation and to some
primitive societies;
• iterative and rhythmic by
nature;
• slow pace of change;
• striving for conserving things
the same
spring
summer
winter
fall

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Linear time
• Typical to industrialised (Western)
countries;
• Time is understood as a direction from
somewhere to somewhere else, the
present at the top of development ;
• Change is understood as the prerequisite
for development;
• Time is seen as irreversible and uni-
directional
• The future is open, and therefore
• Society and the human being are open
and dynamic to face the futures and their
possibilities.
time
present
course of
development

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 Events and processes advance at different pace in
different places.
 compares to development (evolution);
 is based on events and processes which proceed at
different speed in different places;
Social / cultural time
cultures
time
developmental
phenomenon
 is relative by nature;
 is culture-specific, and
 relates to people´s intepretation of their own
culture and history.

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Psychological time
In relation to a specific situation, individual
people experience, explain and understand
the course of the same, measurable time in
a different way.
Necessary to differentiate the past from the
future.
By nature, time is
 relative,
 situational, and
 tilannesidonnaista ja
 dependent on expectations, hopes, fears,
emotions, events, memories, etc.

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 Based on the idea that everything subordinates to physical /
natural laws and therefore is measurable by instruments
(clocks, watches; scales, mathematical tools, etc.)
 Is absolute, simple, and unambiquous.
 All the material for predicting the future already exists – we
just have to learn to know how to measure it (Isaac Newton).
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Physical, thermodynamical time

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• Stephen Hawking
• conceptual measure for
explaning cosmical facts;
• no beginning, or end, or direction, or order of things;
• no difference between the past, the present and the
future;
• no causality;
• the time of complex systems;
• offers explanation to supernatural and un-explanatory
experiences and phenomena?
Imaginary time

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Spiral time
The course of development follows in many
ways the Hegelian theory of thesis –
antithesis – synthesis, thus forms a spiral
instead of the linear or cyclical model.
Thesis: individualization & privatization
Antithesis: the European heritage of the sense
of community;  so-called neo-communality
Synthesis: new models of doing things together
 empowerment, recruiting by eg. social
media to participate and be active; co-
productivity

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Definitions of a System
A System is…
… a limited number of factors (actors, actions, interactions)
between which there are continuous tensions and
connections to distinguish them as separate wholes;
…an organism which functions according to laws and rules
of its own. The organism is composed of smaller organisms,
but it cannot be directly understood by merely analysing its
sub-organisms.
… a group of characteristics which form a whole and the
parts of which are related with each other in a definable
way.

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• Universal principles of organisation apply to all systems
(physical, chemical, biological, social)
• Mechanistic world view: Full understading of any
phenomenon can be achieved by reducing it to its basic
components and analysing those parts. Universal
anwers can be achieved this way.
• Systemic world view: Phenomena are more than their
parts. Universal answers can only be achieved by
exceeding the material basis and concentrating on the
abstract characteristics of the system.
Principles of systems thinking

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The Hierarchy of a System
• To be eligible for being defined as a system, a being has to have
at least two parts which are interconnected.
• The parts of a system form sub-systems (i.e. a human being 
blood circulation  blood cells  genes, etc.) The top system is
called super-system. The super-system is always more abstract
and more general by nature than its sub-systems
• As such, a system is always more than a mere sum of its parts, or
sub-systems.
• The higher in hierarchy a system functions, the more abstract and
general it is by nature (i.e. a human being  family  community
 municipality  state, etc.)

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The Emergent Nature of a System
A system receives energy, matter and/or information
(input) and produces other kind of energy, matter,
and/or information back to its environment (output).
The third law of thermodynamics
 Specialised energy
 The law of entropy
The formation of a system requires
processes between
• its parts and sub-systems;
• the system and its environment
(open systems).

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Negative feedback
• necessary for the self-direction and learning
ability of the system;
• guides the system to keep on the right track.
Positive feedback
• result, product, i.e. output
• the sum of avoided negative alternatives.
The Role of Feedback
in Open Systems
.../...

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In keeping up the economy of the open system,
the crucial process is regulation, homeostacy.
• the ability of a system to maintain its inner
condition;
• takes place by eliminating redundant
fluctuation and the disturbing influence of
external stimulae or noise.
Homeostacy

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Complex
Systems

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To understand a system…
…focus has to be turned on
• the technical form of information output (i.e., how it is
transmitted and what symbols are used);
• the accuracy of information (i.e. how well the symbols
describe the acitivities of the system);
• how effective the information is (i.e., how that information
influences the environment of the system and how the
output process is necessary for the survival and
managing of the system).

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A Complex System
A system, state, or whole can be defined as complex, if...
• it is open,
• it has a two-way information flow;
• is composed of different, but intertwined parts (elements,
incidents, chains of events, impacts, etc.)
• is indistinct,
• and is laborious to analyse or solve.

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Critical information
Inflowing information which grows in amount or quality and
for which the system is not properly prepared is called critical
information.
The more critical information is flowing into the system, the
more unstable it becomes and the closer it approximates to a
chaotic state.
The system’s ability to self-regulation determines the level of
its order.
i.e. The Universe is not merely a combination of phenomena
acting on their own, separate laws, but a whole of
intermediating complex systems.
(Checkland 1985)

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Natural and Human Systems
2. Human systems have either been consciously built, or they
have emerged as a result of human actions.
• Rational material systems (= planned by people)
(i.e. the distribution network of electricity in a city)
• Planned abstract systems (= human-made conceptual wholes)
(i.e. mathematics, philosophy, education system, etc.)
• Operational human systems (= the systems which have been
created in order to carry out some purpose or to reach a goal
(i.e. a choir, or political parties)
3. Transcendental systems (of which we cannot know
anything)
1. Natural systems form the Nature as
we know it.

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When the amount of information grows in a system, its
ability to provide energy in order to deal with the new /
growing information and accomplish as before
becomes tested:
→ uncertainty and unpredictability grow;
→ the degree of freedom builds up;
→ the possibility of chaos multiplies;
→ and resistance for change increases.
The information which starts the change (pushes the
system off its normal stability) is called critical
information.
The Consequences of System Change

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Self-regulation and fluctuation
New energy or information into human systems causes
fluctuation in its internal processes.
At the same time the system keeps up movement towards
its development (= fluctuation) with the help of cumulative
and positive feedback.
Tendency to self-regulation
(to achieve balance by
using amendatory or
negative feedback.
Tendency towards
more and more specific
and diverse state.
Dissonance?

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Evolutionary development
• The two antagonistic tendencies – to achieve and maintain balance
and to promote development – increases the system’s movement
towards a critical state before chaos.
• Finally it either dissolves (=chaos) or moves onto a higher and more
complex level, where both the self-regulative and attuning processes
start again.
• On this new level the system is more complex and manifold than
before in both its construction and actions.
NORMAL DEVELOPMENT
TRUE DEVELOPMENT (normal again)
Level of
complexity
Time
APPROACHING CHAOS
(i.e. development
becomes unpredictable
Increasing inflow of
energy/information/
matter Qualitative jump PREDICTED
DEVELOPMENT

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A Change in a System
When the level of information in a system grows, new
alternative paths to the future emerge.
The possibilities to maintain order, control the flow of
information, manage the system with old methods weaken,
when the conditions in the system change.
When the amount of new, inflowing information (energy,
matter) reaches a critical point, the systems moves towards a
chaotic state.
Human-made systems are always
moving towards greater complexity.
How to control change?

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1) The growth of information
 change of the grade of order in
the system
2) Change in the amount / model of
behavour of actors:
– an actor leaves;
– new actor/actors appear;
– the chain of operations break .
3) A change in the purpose / meaning of the
system
Causes of change

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More
information /
energy
SYSTEM
Possibilities to
maintain and
create order
diminish
Unpredictable
change and
chaos
Degrees of
freedom
increase
The complexity of the
system increases. What are
the alternative futures of
such system?
More
influential
actors
CHANGE IN SYSTEM
Growth of energy /
information
Alternative future
developments

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mortality rate
population
annual births
annual deaths
birth rate
nutrition
(per person)
cultivated field
area
demanded nutrition
(per person) nutrition
capital on
agriculture
industrial
production
pollution
investments industrial capital
investment
readiness
depreciations
the average duration
of capital
(+)
(+)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(-)
MODELING
E.g. the world
model of the Club
of Rome in”Limits
to growth”
(Meadows et al.,
1972)
Modeling

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The SSM helps to establish a connection between the
visions of the preferred future and organisational self-
understanding based on information gathered from the
present situation. The knowledge gained through this
process is then used to build a change process which
helps in preparing for different possible futures.
The organisation under study is
understood and described as a
systemic whole -- a system which has
recognisable borders, actors, factors,
sub-systems, and interactions between
them.
Soft Systems Thinking (SSM)
Peter Checkland 1985

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1. The world
as we
perceive it,
2. produces…
3. thoughts and
models of action…
5. as tools in Methodology M
to understand the world.
4. which are
being used…
© Auli Keskinen
The World as a Systemic Image

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V = (Core)Vision Meaning, idea, goals
M = Mission Strategies, actions, methods
A = Actors)
Actors, groups, networks, users,
consumers, customers, models of
action, rules, laws, communication
R = Construction
Components, techniques, borders,
division of work,
environment, inner & outer contacs
Describing a system with VMAR-analysis

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1. Problem
situation (un-
structured)
3. Core concepts
of meaningful
systems
2. Problem
situation
(verbalized)
4a. Formal
systems model
4b. Other systems
thinking
4. Conceptual
models
TRUE WORLD
SYSTEMS THINKING
5. Comparison
of phases 2-4
6. Possible,
desirable
changes
7. Action to solve
the problem
situation
The world as a systemic model

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In the SSM process a connection between organisation´s
strategic target setting, vision creation, information about
the present and self-understanding is constructed.
The information gained in the process will be used in
creating an insight on the change processes which are
needed in order to make the best possible future become
reality.
The SSM process also helps the organisation in getting
prepared for different possible futures.
The development processes between the systemic cultural
self-understanding and the actors are especially
emphasized.
The course and activities of SSM

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Naming of the
problem situation
(future-related)
History
Tasks,
matters
Description of the
situation as a culture:
• Analysis of influencing the
activities
• Analysis of information flow
• Analysis of the“social system”
• Analysis of the “political
system”
Present
activities as
they officially
are
Futures model
(how things
should be, i.e.
vision)
Naming of the
possible change
agents
comparison
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Differences between true
situation and the models
Naming of the need of changes:
 systemically desirable
 culturally reachable
Analysis of the
organisational culture
Analysis of activities
with CATWOE
Present
activities as
they really
are
comparison
The course and activities of SSM

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CATWOE is
• A process to create core concept and core vision;
• A means to define the sub-systems, systemic processe,
interaction between the systems and sub-systems, and
the roles of actors who influence its activities;
• A tool to describe the desirable future state as the
model with which the true present situation can then be
compared.
(Checkland &Scholes 1999)
The principles of CATWOE

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Customer (whose choices and actions are influenced by the process)
Actors (who make the thingshappen)
Transformationprocess(the real chain of actions which changes the inflowing resources to
a product.)
Worldview (and values)
Owners (the actors who canprevent or stop the change.)
Environmentalconstraints(the limitsand factors in social environmentwhich do not
change or cannot be influenced by the process)
The factors of CATWOE

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The ACTVOD process
A method which connects SSM and scenario methods (futures table
method)
Actors (who make the things happen)
Customers (whose choices and actions are influenced by the process)
Transformation process (the real chain of actions which take change
forward.)
Values
Obstacles (which decelerate development.)
Drivers (which promote the change.)
The method is carried out by placing the ACTVOD variables in a
futures table and then choosing four to six (or even more) alternative
futures states to each variables. The table enables several alternative
futures images to be created (see Futures Table method for details)
(Hietanen, Kaivo-oja, Lauttamäki & Nurmi 2006)

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 Presents in verbal form the general present actions
and meaning of the system (organisation)
 Is created to answer the following questions:
”What should be done?” (=x)
”How should it be done?” (=y)
”Why is it done?” (=z)
The core concept is presented in the form
”The meaning of the system is to do x by using y in
order to reach z.”
Core concept

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ACTVOD-table
Actors
Customers
Transformation
processes
Values
Obstacles
Drivers for change

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In SSM methodology work (and in futures studies) the vision is
• the active affect in the future, created by a person, group,
organisation or other actor;
• insightful and crucial by nature;
• justifiable from the point of view of actor´s existance and values;
• created from the possible and desirable future state(s) and
actions;
• the starting point of a new concept to deal with the future
challenges,
• and the actualization of which requires active work and change
which takes place through learning new things.
…
Vision

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In addition to the previous characteristics, the core
vision
 describes the system as it could be in the future (=
target state);
 presents the objective of learning and interest in
the larger and more general vision (= affect).
The meaning of the core vision is to motivate the
actors to commit themselves with their choices,
decisions and deeds to the tasks and processes which
are necessary in order to reach the desirable future
Core vision

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1. A directive in which the necessary activities and
changes to direct the present situation towards the
state given by the vision are chronologically stated.
2. A task which defines the general meaning of the
commonly-shared and future-oriented operations. At
the same time, a clarification of the changes, choices
and things which are necessary in order to reach the
goal stated in the vision.
Mission

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