Overview of the 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) by Danielle Resnick

1. Introduction to the 2020 African Trends and
Outlook Report (ATOR)
Dr. Danielle Resnick, IFPRI
Dr. Xinshen Diao, IFPRI
Dr. Getaw Tadesse, AKADEMIYA2063

2. Achievements
• Africa’s share in world ag GDP increased from
10-12% (2004-2017)
• Nominal rate of assistance to farmers has
been positive since the 2010s
• Significant improvements in land and labor
productivity since 2010
• African agribusiness estimated to be USD
trillion market by 2030
African Agriculture at Crossroads
Concerns
• COVID-19 pandemic, plus locusts, farm
armyworm, and other shocks
• Renewed government intervention in supply
chains during last 5 years
• Resurgence in trade distortions despite free
trade commitments
• Only handful of countries have met CAADP
goals of 6% ag growth, allocating 10% of
budgets to agriculture and 1% of GDP to ag
R&D

3. Questions Guiding ATOR
How have agricultural policy regimes
evolved during the last two decades?
Are current policies for agrifood system
transformation aligned with the
macroeconomic and changing global
trade environment?
Which policy gaps need to be prioritized
to sustain and accelerate growth?
Which institutional and political economy
factors must be considered to make
agrifood system transformation a reality?
These questions are examined with an agrifood systems
perspective

4. Seed
• New cultivars being released, seed companies playing larger role, and greater
adoption among farm households
• Higher quality seed requires improved access to genetic material, investment
in breeding methods, enabling regulatory systems, tackling policy gaps
around biosafety, and building public trust related to counterfeit seed
Fertilizer
• Evidence shows that fertilizer subsidies, though refined over time, do not have
anticipated impacts on productivity growth and may undermine health and
environmental goals
• Fertilizer’s ability to enhance productivity requires concurrent investments in
agronomy, irrigation, soil testing, extension services, and private sector
involvement
Agricultural Input Policies
Counterfeit seeds
tackled with mobile
scratch cards in
Kenya
Source: University of Delaware

5. Mechanization
• Increased farming intensity underscores need for better access to
mechanization
• However, government subsidized mechanization programs revealed as
unprofitable with low demand
• Opportunities to consider different funding modalities and incorporate
maintenance and training initiatives
Irrigation and water management
• Vast biophysical differences requires multiple pathways for irrigation
• Trade-offs between affordability of technologies and environmental and
health goals
• Requires tools to monitor irrigation, water pollution management
systems, water management frameworks, and irrigation targeted at
nutrient-dense cultivation
Agricultural Input Policies
Source: World Bank
Ghana is refining mechanization
interventions

6. Producer organizations
• Producer organizations support access to inputs and information
but vary enormously in structure
• Technical efficiency higher for those in organizations but
especially for those with a board and general assembly
• Support for these organizations requires attention to these
governance differences
Skills development – ATVET
• Need to go beyond farm training to include mechanical and
electrical skills for operating machinery
• Financing, accounting, insurance, and ICT training need to
make farming competitive business
Supporting Value Chain ActorsProducer Organizations in Senegal
Range of Producer Organizations in Senegal
Source: Wouterse and Faye, 2020

7. Processing & midstream value chains
• Dynamism in export growth and food demand create opportunities for
domestic value chains
• Targeted policies needed according to whether value chains operate in
regional vs. global markets, the level of consumer demand, and the
specific challenges faced by SMEs vs. large enterprises
Food safety hazards
• Africa (and Asia) have highest burden of foodborne diseases linked to
lack of clean water, close contact with animals, and intensive use of
agrochemicals and veterinary drugs
• Requires data systems to track food safety issues, mechanisms for
accreditation and certification of businesses, and regulatory
oversight that encompasses both export and domestic markets
• Variegated interventions to account for Africa’s informal food markets,
modern retail outlets, and growing e-commerce operations
Supporting Value Chain Actors
Source: Karl Pauw/IFPRI, Tamale Market, Ghana
Food safety is key concern for urban
markets

8. ICT and digitalization
• Harnessing potential requires attention to ICT policies, internet
connectivity, digital literacy and digital privacy
• Domestic financing essential for sustainability
Agricultural trade
• Rising share of processed and semi-processed products in
region’s exports
• Reforms needed for customs procedures, transport and
communications logistics, and sanitary/phytosanitary standard
compliance
• Contradictory policy narratives continue between free trade
versus national self-sufficiency and food sovereignty
Building Enabling Environment
Source: East African Business Council
ICT critical for food supply chains during
COVID-19

9. Macroeconomic policies
• Risk of debt distress threatens CAADP investment goals
• Macro environment and resource mobilization remain essential
for investor confidence
Political economy
• Agrifood system perspective entails new range of political economy
issues across ministries, between urban/rural authorities, and
among interest groups
• Mechanisms needed for inter-ministerial and multi-level
coordination
Mutual accountability
• Countries that conducted JSR and participate in CAADP more likely
to devote public expenditures to ag sector, which associated with
agricultural productivity gains
• Strong affirmation for mutual accountability processes
Building Enabling Environment
Source: World Bank/IMF LIC DSA database
Number of Low-Income Countries in Africa
by Debt Risk

10. Expectations for agrifood system transformation are enormous
• Create jobs, bolster healthy diets, improve environmental sustainability, ensure gender equality
• Many trade-offs to sustaining agrifood system transformation while meeting other development
objectives
Requires strategic prioritization across the food system, along value chains,
and between the needs of farmers, processors, retailers, and consumers
2020 ATOR provides 4 guiding principles to inform prioritization
• Learn from the past
• Adopt a holistic agenda
• Embrace nuance
• Strengthen policy systems
Conclusions