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Introduction to the 2020 African Trends and
Outlook Report (ATOR)
Dr. Danielle Resnick, IFPRI
Dr. Xinshen Diao, IFPRI
Dr. ...
Achievements
• Africa’s share in world ag GDP increased from
10-12% (2004-2017)
• Nominal rate of assistance to farmers ha...
Questions Guiding ATOR
How have agricultural policy regimes
evolved during the last two decades?
Are current policies for ...
Seed
• New cultivars being released, seed companies playing larger role, and greater
adoption among farm households
• High...
Mechanization
• Increased farming intensity underscores need for better access to
mechanization
• However, government subs...
Producer organizations
• Producer organizations support access to inputs and information
but vary enormously in structure
...
Processing & midstream value chains
• Dynamism in export growth and food demand create opportunities for
domestic value ch...
ICT and digitalization
• Harnessing potential requires attention to ICT policies, internet
connectivity, digital literacy ...
Macroeconomic policies
• Risk of debt distress threatens CAADP investment goals
• Macro environment and resource mobilizat...
Expectations for agrifood system transformation are enormous
• Create jobs, bolster healthy diets, improve environmental s...
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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session I– Sustaining Africa’s Agrifood System Transformation: The Role of Public Policies

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Overview of the 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) by Danielle Resnick

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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session I– Sustaining Africa’s Agrifood System Transformation: The Role of Public Policies

  1. 1. Introduction to the 2020 African Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) Dr. Danielle Resnick, IFPRI Dr. Xinshen Diao, IFPRI Dr. Getaw Tadesse, AKADEMIYA2063
  2. 2. Achievements • Africa’s share in world ag GDP increased from 10-12% (2004-2017) • Nominal rate of assistance to farmers has been positive since the 2010s • Significant improvements in land and labor productivity since 2010 • African agribusiness estimated to be USD trillion market by 2030 African Agriculture at Crossroads Concerns • COVID-19 pandemic, plus locusts, farm armyworm, and other shocks • Renewed government intervention in supply chains during last 5 years • Resurgence in trade distortions despite free trade commitments • Only handful of countries have met CAADP goals of 6% ag growth, allocating 10% of budgets to agriculture and 1% of GDP to ag R&D
  3. 3. Questions Guiding ATOR How have agricultural policy regimes evolved during the last two decades? Are current policies for agrifood system transformation aligned with the macroeconomic and changing global trade environment? Which policy gaps need to be prioritized to sustain and accelerate growth? Which institutional and political economy factors must be considered to make agrifood system transformation a reality? These questions are examined with an agrifood systems perspective
  4. 4. Seed • New cultivars being released, seed companies playing larger role, and greater adoption among farm households • Higher quality seed requires improved access to genetic material, investment in breeding methods, enabling regulatory systems, tackling policy gaps around biosafety, and building public trust related to counterfeit seed Fertilizer • Evidence shows that fertilizer subsidies, though refined over time, do not have anticipated impacts on productivity growth and may undermine health and environmental goals • Fertilizer’s ability to enhance productivity requires concurrent investments in agronomy, irrigation, soil testing, extension services, and private sector involvement Agricultural Input Policies Counterfeit seeds tackled with mobile scratch cards in Kenya Source: University of Delaware
  5. 5. Mechanization • Increased farming intensity underscores need for better access to mechanization • However, government subsidized mechanization programs revealed as unprofitable with low demand • Opportunities to consider different funding modalities and incorporate maintenance and training initiatives Irrigation and water management • Vast biophysical differences requires multiple pathways for irrigation • Trade-offs between affordability of technologies and environmental and health goals • Requires tools to monitor irrigation, water pollution management systems, water management frameworks, and irrigation targeted at nutrient-dense cultivation Agricultural Input Policies Source: World Bank Ghana is refining mechanization interventions
  6. 6. Producer organizations • Producer organizations support access to inputs and information but vary enormously in structure • Technical efficiency higher for those in organizations but especially for those with a board and general assembly • Support for these organizations requires attention to these governance differences Skills development – ATVET • Need to go beyond farm training to include mechanical and electrical skills for operating machinery • Financing, accounting, insurance, and ICT training need to make farming competitive business Supporting Value Chain ActorsProducer Organizations in Senegal Range of Producer Organizations in Senegal Source: Wouterse and Faye, 2020
  7. 7. Processing & midstream value chains • Dynamism in export growth and food demand create opportunities for domestic value chains • Targeted policies needed according to whether value chains operate in regional vs. global markets, the level of consumer demand, and the specific challenges faced by SMEs vs. large enterprises Food safety hazards • Africa (and Asia) have highest burden of foodborne diseases linked to lack of clean water, close contact with animals, and intensive use of agrochemicals and veterinary drugs • Requires data systems to track food safety issues, mechanisms for accreditation and certification of businesses, and regulatory oversight that encompasses both export and domestic markets • Variegated interventions to account for Africa’s informal food markets, modern retail outlets, and growing e-commerce operations Supporting Value Chain Actors Source: Karl Pauw/IFPRI, Tamale Market, Ghana Food safety is key concern for urban markets
  8. 8. ICT and digitalization • Harnessing potential requires attention to ICT policies, internet connectivity, digital literacy and digital privacy • Domestic financing essential for sustainability Agricultural trade • Rising share of processed and semi-processed products in region’s exports • Reforms needed for customs procedures, transport and communications logistics, and sanitary/phytosanitary standard compliance • Contradictory policy narratives continue between free trade versus national self-sufficiency and food sovereignty Building Enabling Environment Source: East African Business Council ICT critical for food supply chains during COVID-19
  9. 9. Macroeconomic policies • Risk of debt distress threatens CAADP investment goals • Macro environment and resource mobilization remain essential for investor confidence Political economy • Agrifood system perspective entails new range of political economy issues across ministries, between urban/rural authorities, and among interest groups • Mechanisms needed for inter-ministerial and multi-level coordination Mutual accountability • Countries that conducted JSR and participate in CAADP more likely to devote public expenditures to ag sector, which associated with agricultural productivity gains • Strong affirmation for mutual accountability processes Building Enabling Environment Source: World Bank/IMF LIC DSA database Number of Low-Income Countries in Africa by Debt Risk
  10. 10. Expectations for agrifood system transformation are enormous • Create jobs, bolster healthy diets, improve environmental sustainability, ensure gender equality • Many trade-offs to sustaining agrifood system transformation while meeting other development objectives Requires strategic prioritization across the food system, along value chains, and between the needs of farmers, processors, retailers, and consumers 2020 ATOR provides 4 guiding principles to inform prioritization • Learn from the past • Adopt a holistic agenda • Embrace nuance • Strengthen policy systems Conclusions

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