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Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and
Implementation Processes
Tsitsi Makombe (Presenter), Wondwosen Tefera, and John M. Ulimw...
What is Being Tracked?
• ReSAKSS provides data & knowledge
products to inform CAADP processes
• Tracks progress on > 30 CA...
Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes
• Operationalizing Malabo Declaration & CAADP RF requires NAIPs aligned with go...
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Government Agricultural Expenditures (GAE)
• Africa’s GAE more than doubled btwn 1995–2003
a...
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Agricultural Growth
• Africa’s agriculture value added growth remained
below 6 percent CAADP...
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Undernourishment
• Prevalence of undernourishment was
on a declining trend for many years
• ...
Progress in CAADP Indicators: Child Malnutrition
• Africa’s prevalence of child stunting,
underweight, & wasting has been ...
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Poverty Headcount Ratio ($1.90/Day)
• Africa has consistently reduced the
incidence of pover...
Conclusions & Implications
• Steady progress in CAADP implementation
• No. of poor people, both proportion & no. of undern...
THANK YOU!
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Intra-African Agricultural Trade
• Remarkable growth in intra-African agricultural
trade
• I...
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
GDP Per Capita
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Africa
CentralAfrica
EasternAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfric...
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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session VI Progress Toward Achieving CAADP Goals

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Presentation on Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation Processes by Tsitsi Makombe, Director of External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063

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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session VI Progress Toward Achieving CAADP Goals

  1. 1. Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation Processes Tsitsi Makombe (Presenter), Wondwosen Tefera, and John M. Ulimwengu Director of External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063 November 5, 2020
  2. 2. What is Being Tracked? • ReSAKSS provides data & knowledge products to inform CAADP processes • Tracks progress on > 30 CAADP indicators using CAADP Results Framework (RF) (2015-2025) [38 indicators] oReSAKSS website: www.resakss.org oFlagship Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) • Chapter 16 in 2020 ATOR discusses progress on 25/38 CAADP RF indicators • 5 quantitative indicators presented today CAADP Results Framework: 2015-2025
  3. 3. Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes • Operationalizing Malabo Declaration & CAADP RF requires NAIPs aligned with goals & targets of the Declaration Malabo Domestication Event • ReSAKSS analysis (with local experts) informs design of NAIPs: SAP, MGM, PPO reports • Agriculture JSR assessments completed in 21 countries & 2 RECs (ECOWAS & EAC) • Two CAADP Biennial Reviews (BRs) held in 2017 and 2019 Region Malabo Domestication Malabo Status Assessment Profile (SAP) Malabo Goals & Milestones (MGM) Malabo Compliant NAIP JSR Assessment Completed 1st BR 2nd BR Africa 25 31 25 21 21 47 49 Central 2 2 2 1 9 8 Eastern 5 6 1 4 6 10 13 Northern 4 3 Southern 9 8 7 2 6 10 10 Western 9 15 15 15 8 14 15
  4. 4. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Government Agricultural Expenditures (GAE) • Africa’s GAE more than doubled btwn 1995–2003 and 2014–2019, from $9.6 billion to $19.6 billion • However, growth in GAE has slowed, 3 % in 2014- 2019 compared with 6.3 % in 2003-2008 • Africa’s share of GAE in total government expenditure is below the CAADP 10 % target (3.3 % in 2014-2019) • Seven countries met or surpassed the 10 % target in 2014–2019 0 4 8 12 16 20 Ethiopia Malawi SierraLeone Senegal Mali Liberia BurkinaFaso Niger Benin Zambia Lesotho Tunisia Mozambique Rwanda Cameroon CapeVerde Togo Morocco Zimbabwe Gambia S.Tome&Principe Madagascar Tanzania Cent.Af.Rep. Namibia Swaziland Uganda Côted'Ivoire Guinea Nigeria Kenya Mauritius Guinea-Bissau Chad Seychelles Egypt Burundi Botswana Congo,Rep. Gabon SouthAfrica Mauritania Sudan Ghana Angola SouthSudan Comoros EquatorialGuinea Algeria Congo,Dem.Rep. Djibouti Eritrea Annualaveragelevel(%) Annual avg. level (2014-2019) CAADP 10% target -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Annualaveragechange(%) GAE Growth (%) Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2019)
  5. 5. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Agricultural Growth • Africa’s agriculture value added growth remained below 6 percent CAADP target, grew at 3.2 % in 2014- 2019 • Higher growth in Central Africa of 4.2 % in 2014-2019 • Ten countries met or surpassed the 6 percent target in 2014–2019 • Gabon, Guinea, Kenya growth of > 10 % -2 0 2 4 6 8 Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Annualaveragechange(%) Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target -12 -6 0 6 12 Guinea Gabon Kenya Guinea-Bissau Niger Zimbabwe Senegal Rwanda Benin Congo,Dem.Rep. Ethiopia Mali Cameroon Mozambique Algeria Lesotho Tunisia Egypt Tanzania EquatorialGuinea Seychelles Cent.Af.Rep. Uganda Togo Mauritania Congo,Rep. BurkinaFaso S.Tome&Principe Comoros Nigeria Morocco Côted'Ivoire SierraLeone Ghana Liberia Madagascar Malawi Botswana Chad Mauritius Swaziland Namibia SouthAfrica Gambia Sudan Burundi Angola CapeVerde Zambia AnnualAverageChange(%) Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target
  6. 6. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Undernourishment • Prevalence of undernourishment was on a declining trend for many years • From 20.6 % in 2003-08 to 18.6 in 2017 • However, since 2015, prevalence started to increase across Africa & many country groupings (esp. Central & Western Africa) • Africa’s, number of undernourished has steadily increased since 2009 • From 159.8 million in 2009 to 205.7 million in 2017 ( up 28.7 %) 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Undernourishedpeople(in millions) Prevalenceofundernourishment (%) Africa Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Undernourished people (in millions) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Prevalenceofundernourishment(%) Eastern Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Africa Western Africa Northern Africa
  7. 7. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Child Malnutrition • Africa’s prevalence of child stunting, underweight, & wasting has been on a declining trend over the last two decades • Despite progress, prevalence of stunting is considered High (esp. Central Africa: 37 %) • Africa’s prevalence of child underweight (at 16.4 % ) & wasting (at 7.3 %) is Medium in 2014-2019 • Child underweight High in Central Africa and Eastern Africa (>20 %) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Prevalenceofchildmalnutrition(%) Africa Stunting Underweight Wasting Indicator < 20% Low prevalence 20-29% Medium prevalence 30-39% High prevalence => 40% Very high prevalence < 10% Low prevalence 10-19% Medium prevalence 20-29% High prevalence => 30% Very high prevalence < 5% Low prevalence 5-9% Medium prevalence 10-14% High prevalence =>15% Very high prevalence SEVERITY OF MALNUTRITION BY PREVALENCE RANGES Prevalence cut-off values Stunting Underweight Wasting Source: WHO (2020).
  8. 8. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Poverty Headcount Ratio ($1.90/Day) • Africa has consistently reduced the incidence of poverty over the last two decades • From 45.6 % in 1995-2003 to 35.8 % in 2014- 2019 • However, number of people living on less than $1.90/day has steadily risen since 2000s, • From 298 million in 2002 to 337 million in 2019 • COVID-19 could drive up to 26-40 million people into extreme poverty in SSA in 2020-2021, erasing years of progress in fighting poverty (World Bank, 2020) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Numberofporpeople(millions) Proportionofpoorpeople(%) Proportion of poor people (%) Number of poor people (millions)
  9. 9. Conclusions & Implications • Steady progress in CAADP implementation • No. of poor people, both proportion & no. of undernourished are increasing • Slowing growth in GAE expenditures • Only 7 countries met CAADP 10 % budget target; 10 met CAADP 6 % growth target • Need to consolidate progress & urgently tackle regressing areas • Raise level of agricultural investments & productivity • Improve market access & trade infrastructure • Keep borders open to promote cross-border trade in food and ag inputs • Invest in better health & food security outcomes; support social protection & resilience building initiatives • Hasten efforts to formulate & implement evidence-based NAIPs
  10. 10. THANK YOU!
  11. 11. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Intra-African Agricultural Trade • Remarkable growth in intra-African agricultural trade • Intra-African agricultural exports nearly tripled btwn 1995-2003 and 2014-2018 [$5.2 billion to $15.3 billion] • Southern Africa dominates intra-African agricultural exports and imports at 52 % and 44 % in 2014-2018, respectively Central Africa 1% Eastern Africa 20% Northern Africa 14% Southern Africa 52% Western Africa 13% Exports (2014-2018) Central Africa 9% Eastern Africa 17% Northern Africa 14% Southern Africa 44% Western Africa 16% Imports (2014-2018)
  12. 12. Progress in CAADP Indicators: GDP Per Capita -3 -1 1 3 5 7 Africa CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica AnnualAverageChange(%) GDP Per Capita Growth Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2019) • GDP per capita has declined since 2008 • Africa’s GDP per capita grew by 3.3 % in 2003-2008, 1.2 % in 2008-2014; 0.2 % in 2014-2019 • Decline linked to the recent global economic slowdown & lower commodity prices, esp. in 2016 • Growth expected to contract further in 2020 due to COVID-19

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