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2020 ReSAKSS Conference - Symposium on Africa's Agri-Food Systems

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Presentation on Africa's Agri-Food Systems Following the COVID-19 Pandemic by Holger A. Kray, World Bank

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2020 ReSAKSS Conference - Symposium on Africa's Agri-Food Systems

  1. 1. Africa’s Agri-Food Systems Following the COVID-19 Pandemic Holger A. Kray Keynote to the 2020 ReSAKSS Conference Photos: ©Dorte Verner; Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
  2. 2. Main Messages 1. Poverty and food insecurity increasing rapidly in rural and urban areas 2. Keep the food system working and open (markets/processing/trade/logistics) 3. Need to act now to avoid further deterioration of food insecurity and allow for a sustainable recovery  many good examples of programs underway 4. Bold ideas needed to address long-standing challenges and take advantage of new opportunities 2
  3. 3. COVID 19 magnifies pre-existing issues
  4. 4. 239 Million Undernourished People in SSA • 69 million people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2019 (IPC3+) • 2x people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2020 compared to 2019 due to COVID-19 • Malnutrition will worsen, especially child malnutrition 4 Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET)
  5. 5. Public support to agriculture in Africa declining 5 Source: CAADP biennial evaluation report 2019
  6. 6. In Africa, countries’ current ag transformation strategies often fall short Based on evidence from 13 SSA economies 6 Agricultural expenditure on ag as share of total public expenditures Agriculture budget allocated to effective enablers2 Agricultural (CAADP) strategies that have basic building blocks1 Source: ReSAKSS; MAFAP; McKinsey research No. of countries /w certain percentage 2 6 5 5-10%0-5% >10% 2 3 5 80-100%0-60% 60-80% No. of countries /w certain percentage No. of ag strategies with basic building blocks 3 4 6 30-2 4-5 1 Basic building blocks include cost estimates, measurable targets, an explicit gender strategy, mapping against existing resources or funding, and indication of clear priorities 2 % of ag budget allocated to infrastructure, R&D and capacity building vs. direct payments to producers, consumers or other players (specifically categories I-U from FAO’s MFAP) No. of countries hitting ag disbursement targets 50%+ from target 20-50% of target 32 5 Within 20% of target Share of budget actually disbursed
  7. 7. Multiple drivers amplify food security risks
  8. 8. Multiple Crises Amplify Food Security Risks 8 (*) IPC 2020 estimates are pre-COVID Source: WFP 2020, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/WFP-0000114546.pdf
  9. 9. Global Food Markets: Hunger Amid Plenty 9 • Cereal stocks at an all-time high • International food prices overall moderate • Only international rice prices are up by 10% (M/M) and 20% (Y/Y) Global cereal stocks Source: 2020 AMIS Market Monitor
  10. 10. Source: FAO (GIEWS) Drivers of Food Insecurity in SSA under COVID-19 Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand 60% increase in food prices in some SSA cities • Int’l food markets are stable • Depreciation of SSA currencies Up to 7% projected drop in 2020 ag & food production in SSA • 14% of food imports affected by export restrictions • Food markets closed (new health restrictions / informal vendors) • Labor disruptions along the food chain • Domestic food trade restrictions and agrologistic disruptions 10 26 – 58 million add’l poor in 2020 in SSA • 23% drop in remittances • Loss of jobs and income • Social Protection Program disruptions Source: SSAPOV/GMO database. PovcalNet. World Bank/IMF GDP forecasts Nominal food price changes across key markets for cereals (schematic) Poverty rate for SSA will increase by at least 2 percentage points
  11. 11. The Need for a Comprehensive Agenda
  12. 12. Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses Acting Now with a Differentiated Approach UrgentEmergency Response– Safeguarding incomes • Strategic food reserves • Int’l & domestic trade measures • Retrofitting food systems for new C19 guidelines • Scale up / adjust Social Protection and Jobs Programs • Nutrition (health) interventions • Expand/adapt institutional food purchases • HF Monitoring • Macro (inflation / ExRate) • Reducing legal/illegal food taxation UrgentRecovery Response– Safeguarding livelihoods • Agrifood SME support and productive inclusion • Ag & Food policy reform • Ag&Food production /innovation • Ag&Food public goods / services • Agile/responsive SP&J Programs for livelihoods recovery • Multisector nutrition approach (health, SP, WASH, agriculture) • Early Warning Systems (EWS) • Food & ag market info systems • E-commerce platforms 12
  13. 13. Policy Actions Program Investments Advisory Overhaul ID systems and registries (SP, farmer registries) Reform policies on strategic food reserves and food aid Realign ag and food policy incentives (nutrition/climate smart agriculture) Intra-regional trade support (AfCFTA) Deploy agile and shock-responsive SP and agriculture programs Crowdsourcing agriculture and food disruptive technology solutions Mid-size agri-food financing Support to local gov’ts / comm. on food market standards and opportunities for urban agriculture High frequency monitoring of food prices, stocks, HH food security and logistics/trade disruptions Mapping of food system to identify bottlenecks and interventions Quantifying agriculture and food policies / distortions COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses: The Need for a Comprehensive Agenda Opportunities to leapfrog: gender / youth / capacity building / digital technologies EmergencyRecovery 13
  14. 14. Leveraging Internal Cooperation at the World Bank 14 Agriculture and Food, 60% Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy, 15% Water, 9% Urban, Resilience and Land, 5% Macro, Finance, Social Protection, Transport, Other 12% Share of Agriculture and Food Related Lending FY17-19 About 40% of Agriculture and Food Global Practice mapped projects are done with contributions from other Departments, especially within the Sustainable Development Practice
  15. 15. Leveraging External Partnerships Building Coalitions to deliver better together Many strong partnerships, but we still need to find solutions to deliver better together:  Streamlining disparate investments and isolated interventions toward the core problem  Integrating risk management into the existing development frameworks  Focusing on (knowledge for) implementation – lessons across partners  Paving the way for future investments of partners and the private sector 15
  16. 16. Africa’s Agri-Food Systems Following the COVID-19 Pandemic Holger A. Kray Keynote to the 2020 ReSAKSS Conference Photos: ©Dorte Verner; Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

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