2. Main Messages
1. Poverty and food insecurity increasing rapidly in rural and urban areas
2. Keep the food system working and open (markets/processing/trade/logistics)
3. Need to act now to avoid further deterioration of food insecurity and allow for
a sustainable recovery many good examples of programs underway
4. Bold ideas needed to address long-standing challenges and take advantage of
new opportunities
2
4. 239 Million Undernourished People in SSA
• 69 million people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2019 (IPC3+)
• 2x people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2020 compared to 2019 due to COVID-19
• Malnutrition will worsen, especially child malnutrition
4
Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET)
5. Public support to agriculture in Africa declining
5
Source: CAADP biennial evaluation report 2019
6. In Africa, countries’ current ag transformation strategies often fall short
Based on evidence from 13 SSA economies
6
Agricultural expenditure on ag as share of
total public expenditures
Agriculture budget allocated
to effective enablers2
Agricultural (CAADP) strategies that
have basic building blocks1
Source: ReSAKSS; MAFAP; McKinsey research
No. of countries /w certain percentage
2
6
5
5-10%0-5% >10%
2
3
5
80-100%0-60% 60-80%
No. of countries /w certain percentage
No. of ag strategies with basic building blocks
3
4
6
30-2 4-5
1 Basic building blocks include cost estimates, measurable targets, an explicit gender strategy, mapping against existing resources or funding, and indication of clear priorities
2 % of ag budget allocated to infrastructure, R&D and capacity building vs. direct payments to producers, consumers or other players (specifically categories I-U from FAO’s MFAP)
No. of countries hitting ag disbursement targets
50%+
from target
20-50%
of target
32
5
Within 20%
of target
Share of budget actually disbursed
9. Global Food Markets: Hunger Amid Plenty
9
• Cereal stocks at an all-time high
• International food prices overall moderate
• Only international rice prices are up by 10% (M/M) and 20% (Y/Y)
Global cereal stocks
Source: 2020 AMIS Market Monitor
10. Source: FAO (GIEWS)
Drivers of Food Insecurity in SSA under COVID-19
Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand
60% increase in food prices in some
SSA cities
• Int’l food markets are stable
• Depreciation of SSA currencies
Up to 7% projected drop in 2020 ag &
food production in SSA
• 14% of food imports affected by
export restrictions
• Food markets closed (new health
restrictions / informal vendors)
• Labor disruptions along the food
chain
• Domestic food trade restrictions
and agrologistic disruptions
10
26 – 58 million add’l poor in 2020 in SSA
• 23% drop in remittances
• Loss of jobs and income
• Social Protection Program disruptions
Source: SSAPOV/GMO database. PovcalNet. World Bank/IMF GDP forecasts
Nominal food price changes across key
markets for cereals (schematic)
Poverty rate for SSA will increase by at least
2 percentage points
12. Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand
COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses
Acting Now with a Differentiated Approach
UrgentEmergency
Response–
Safeguarding
incomes
• Strategic food reserves
• Int’l & domestic trade
measures
• Retrofitting food systems for
new C19 guidelines
• Scale up / adjust Social
Protection and Jobs Programs
• Nutrition (health) interventions
• Expand/adapt institutional food
purchases
• HF Monitoring
• Macro (inflation / ExRate)
• Reducing legal/illegal food
taxation
UrgentRecovery
Response–
Safeguarding
livelihoods
• Agrifood SME support and
productive inclusion
• Ag & Food policy reform
• Ag&Food production
/innovation
• Ag&Food public goods / services
• Agile/responsive SP&J Programs
for livelihoods recovery
• Multisector nutrition approach
(health, SP, WASH, agriculture)
• Early Warning Systems (EWS)
• Food & ag market info systems
• E-commerce platforms
12
13. Policy Actions Program Investments Advisory
Overhaul ID systems and registries
(SP, farmer registries)
Reform policies on strategic food
reserves and food aid
Realign ag and food policy incentives
(nutrition/climate smart agriculture)
Intra-regional trade support (AfCFTA)
Deploy agile and shock-responsive SP
and agriculture programs
Crowdsourcing agriculture and food
disruptive technology solutions
Mid-size agri-food financing
Support to local gov’ts / comm. on
food market standards and
opportunities for urban agriculture
High frequency monitoring of
food prices, stocks, HH food
security and logistics/trade
disruptions
Mapping of food system to
identify bottlenecks and
interventions
Quantifying agriculture and
food policies / distortions
COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses:
The Need for a Comprehensive Agenda
Opportunities to leapfrog: gender / youth / capacity building / digital technologies
EmergencyRecovery
13
14. Leveraging Internal Cooperation at the World Bank
14
Agriculture and
Food, 60%
Environment,
Natural
Resources & the
Blue Economy,
15%
Water, 9%
Urban, Resilience
and Land, 5%
Macro, Finance, Social Protection,
Transport, Other 12%
Share of Agriculture and Food Related Lending FY17-19
About 40% of Agriculture and
Food Global Practice mapped
projects are done with
contributions from other
Departments, especially
within the Sustainable
Development Practice
15. Leveraging External Partnerships
Building Coalitions to deliver better together
Many strong partnerships, but we still
need to find solutions to deliver better
together:
Streamlining disparate investments
and isolated interventions toward the
core problem
Integrating risk management into the
existing development frameworks
Focusing on (knowledge for)
implementation – lessons across
partners
Paving the way for future investments
of partners and the private sector
15
According to 2019 FAO estimates, there are 239 million undernourished people in SSA.
69 million out of this number are in a state of acute food insecurity (measured as IPC3 or above)
This number (of 69 million) will double in 2020 due to COVID according to the recent projections by the World Food Program
The immediate health impact of this raise in food insecurity is that we will have an increasing number of malnourished children
Details:
239 million is the number of undernourished people in 2018 (State of Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in the World 2019, FAO)
From this 239 number 69 million are in IPC3+ and this is expected to double in 2020 according to WFP
Source: https://fews.net/
Other details include:
The Global report on Food Crises 2020 (information on the whole year 2019):
73m people in Africa in acute food insecurity (IPC3+) in 2019, concentrated in 36 countries. Out of which 37m: crisis, 26m: weather extremes, 10m economic shocks
129m people in Africa in IPC2 in 2019, concentrated in 32 countries
So that’s 202m in IPC2+ in Africa in 2019 (but that includes North Africa). Details for SSA below:
East Africa: 27m IPC3+, 35m in IPC2 (13.5m children under 5 are stunted, 9.5 million children suffering from acute malnutrition)
Southern Africa: 30m IPC3+, 44.4 m in IPC2
West Africa and the Sahel, and Cameroon: 12m in IPC3+, 48m in IPC2
=69m in IPC3+, 105.0m in IPC2
WFP estimates that the number of people in a situation of acute food insecurity (IPC3+) will double in 2020 as a result of the economic impact of COVIDhttps://www.wfp.org/news/covid-19-will-double-number-people-facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken
SSA has the largest concentration of acute food insecurity. Many countries are heading towards a food emergency (IPC phase 4) with large numbers of people in IPC phase 3 or above-- Ethiopia (8.1 million), Lesotho (0.5 million), Malawi (1.9 million), and Zambia (1.2 million). COVID-19 crisis will significantly worsen the suffering in the areas already severely affected by the locust outbreak in parts of Africa, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.
Based on evidence from 13 Sub-Saharan African economies
Source: McKinsey