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AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: COVID-19 Vulnerability Hot Spots

Better preparedness through early identification and targeting of the most exposed communities

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AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: COVID-19 Vulnerability Hot Spots

  1. 1. COVID-19 Vulnerability Hot Spots: Better preparedness through early identification and targeting of the most exposed communities John Ulimwengu, Léa Magne Domgho, Julie Collins John Ulimwengu, PhD Senior Research Fellow (IFPRI) ReSAKSS Africawide Coordinator West Africa Regional Learning Event February 11, 2021 1
  2. 2. MOTIVATION 2 • Effects of crises are not geographically uniform • Both the spread of COVID-19 and the ability to respond to its effects vary between and within countries • The severity of impacts on people’s livelihoods and food security depends in part on existing patterns of vulnerability
  3. 3. OBJECTIVE 3 o Identify areas within countries and regions that show the highest levels of vulnerability to negative impacts of COVID o Describe the status of micronutrient intake and analyze the impact of COVID-19 related food price changes on consumer demand for micronutrients.
  4. 4. METHODOLOGY (1): VULNERABILITY MAPPING 4 Vulnerability: • Propensity to be exposed to spread of COVID 19; • Limited capacity to control the pandemic and care for patients; • Households’ exposure to negative food security impacts 1) Consider various factors shaping vulnerability  Food security and nutrition status  Access to health services  Overcrowding 2) Build composite indicator to create a typology of vulnerability
  5. 5. METHODOLOGY (2): MICRONUTRIENT ADEQUACY 5 1) Estimate the difference between micronutrient intake and their recommended levels 2) Estimate micronutrient price elasticities of demand 3) Use COVID-19-era price data and elasticities to estimate the impacts of price changes on demand for micronutrients
  6. 6. 6 Food expenditure Harmonized Framework Prevalence of stunting
  7. 7. 7 Assistance by health professionals Distance to health facilities
  8. 8. 8
  9. 9. 9 Overall vulnerability index: West Africa
  10. 10. CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES BETWEEN APRIL AND SEPTEMBER 2019 AND 2020, NIGERIA (%) 10 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Price change (%) Rural 2019 2020 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Price change (%) Urban 2019 2020
  11. 11. CALORIE AND MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES, Nigeria  The average micronutrient intake is far below recommended benchmarks for calcium and folate.  Nutrient adequacy for rural households is more than 80% of the recommended intake for vitamins A, B12, calories, proteins, iron, and zinc.  Vitamin A adequacy for urban families is much higher, with levels close to 96.7%.  Rural families perform better than urban households for most nutrients, except for vitamin B12, vitamin A, and folate. 11 Total consumption (per day, AME) Consumption adequacy (%) Urban Rural Recommended intake Urban Rural (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Kilocalories (kcal) 2634.9 3237.0 2750 80.1 86.9 Proteins (g.) 69.5 81.7 50 91.3 94.1 Calcium (mg.) 510.2 541.0 1000 48.5 50.6 Iron (mg.) 22.1 32.6 27.4 70.1 82.2 Zinc (mg.) 11.9 16.8 14 71.9 81.7 Folate (mcg.) 19.0 5.7 400 4.6 1.4 Vitamin B12 (mcg.) 8.3 6.2 2.4 93.0 80.0 Vitamin A (mcg.) 1660.8 1513.1 600 96.7 96.3
  12. 12. IMPACT OF CHANGES IN PRICES OF CEREALS IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2020 ON FOOD NUTRIENT DEMAND, NIGERIA 12  Increases in prices of cereals are expected to significantly decrease demand for key micronutrients as well as calories.  Especially large decreases in demand are expected in rural areas.
  13. 13. CONCLUSIONS • Responses to COVID-19 need to prioritize most severely affected areas • Areas with high levels of chronic vulnerability may be hardest hit • In West Africa, northern Mali, northern Nigeria, southern Niger and Burkina Faso are particularly vulnerable • Food price changes during the lockdown period could significantly decrease consumption of key nutrients • Better planning of restrictions to minimize market disruption could reduce effects on prices and consumption 13
  14. 14.  Compute three types of adequacy measures corresponding to nutrient production, markets and consumption.  Explore potential to bridge nutrient gaps through domestic market linkages and crossborder trade. Identify opportunities to facilitate movement of nutrients from surplus to deficit areas at local and regional levels  Align countries’ NAIP targets to nutrient gaps.  Develop a nutrition smart trade matrix for the region. FUTURE DIRECTIONS 14
  15. 15. THANK YOU AKADEMIYA2063 – Kicukiro / Niboye KK 341 St 22 I P.O. Box 1855 Kigali-Rwanda 15

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