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Assessing Community Vulnerability
to COVID-19 in Malawi: A Spatial
Outlook
Dr. John Ulimwengu, Africawide ReSAKSS Coordina...
Outline
I. Community vulnerability analysis
• Introduction
• Methodology
• Findings
• Conclusion
• Implications
II. Effect...
I. Community vulnerability analysis
Introduction (1)
• The impacts of crises are especially severe in areas where chronic
...
Introduction (2)
• This study focuses on differentiated spatial vulnerability in Malawi
using an overlay of indicators:
• ...
Methodology (1)
• The study used 3 Administrative Regions of
the country and all the 28 Districts therein
(2019)
I. Northe...
Methodology (2)
Various data sources were considered:
Variable Description DATA SOURCE
hfa2 Height-for-age (Prevalence of ...
Findings (1): Country vulnerability index
• The composite vulnerability index
suggests that chronic vulnerability is
highe...
Findings (2): Stunting
• The prevalence of stunting is highest in 9
districts (Dedza, Neno, Mchinji, Zomba
Rural, Ntcheu, ...
Findings (3): Food consumption per capita
• 8 districts (Mulanje, Machinga, Thyolo,
Nsanje, Chikwawa, Chradzulu, Chitipa,
...
Findings (4): Access to health services
• Nsanje, Mangochi, Salima, Nkhotakota, Ntcheu, Mzimba,
and Lilongwe Rural distric...
Findings (5): Disease Burden
• Mzuzu City, Lilongwe City, Balaka, Dowa, Neon,
Thyolo, Nkhatabay and Likoma have higher
pro...
Findings (6): Population density
• All the cities (Blantyre City, Lilongwe City,
Mzuzu City, and Zomba City) have very
hig...
II. Effects of Covid-19 on micronutrient demand
• Covid-19-related price changes affect nutrition through
their impacts on...
Price changes in April-November 2020
• Prices of several staple foods
stayed constant or fell
slightly in April-Nov 2020
•...
Existing micronutrient deficiencies
• Households consume close to
the recommended level of
protein, calcium, and iron.
• C...
Price elasticities of calories and micronutrients
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
Calories Protein Calcium Iron Zinc Fol...
Impact of 2020 food price changes on nutrient demand
• Price changes in April-November 2020 are expected to decrease house...
Key Messages
• The impacts of crises are especially severe in areas where chronic
vulnerability is high.
• Understanding p...
Key Messages (continued)
• We construct an indicator to measure the level of vulnerability to
serious food security conseq...
Key Messages (continued)
• Changes in price during 2020 modestly affected consumption of key
micronutrients, including cal...
THANK YOU
• AKADEMIYA2063 – Kicukiro / Niboye KK 360 St 8 I P.O. Box 4729 Kigali-Rwanda
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Malawi Policy Learning Event - Assessing Community Vulnerability to Covid 19 in Malawi - April 28, 2021

This presentation was delivered by Dr. John Ulimwengu, ReSAKSS Africawide coordinator

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Malawi Policy Learning Event - Assessing Community Vulnerability to Covid 19 in Malawi - April 28, 2021

  1. 1. Assessing Community Vulnerability to COVID-19 in Malawi: A Spatial Outlook Dr. John Ulimwengu, Africawide ReSAKSS Coordinator With analysis by Dr. Greenwell Matchaya, Sibusiso Nhlengethwa, Léa Magne Domgho April 28, 2021
  2. 2. Outline I. Community vulnerability analysis • Introduction • Methodology • Findings • Conclusion • Implications II. Effects of Covid-19 on micronutrient demand
  3. 3. I. Community vulnerability analysis Introduction (1) • The impacts of crises are especially severe in areas where chronic vulnerability is high. • Understanding patterns of vulnerability is thus of major importance to guide strategies to prepare for and respond to crises. • Our goal is to identify areas which, if affected by Covid, would have the least capacity to absorb shocks and would face the most serious consequences. 3
  4. 4. Introduction (2) • This study focuses on differentiated spatial vulnerability in Malawi using an overlay of indicators: • Susceptibility to the spread of the disease: Population density; disease burden • Inability to care for infected people: Health infrastructure • Existing food and nutrition insecurity: Child undernutrition, food consumption • Due to limited resources, the most vulnerable communities should be prioritized in crisis prevention and mitigation efforts.
  5. 5. Methodology (1) • The study used 3 Administrative Regions of the country and all the 28 Districts therein (2019) I. Northern II. Central III. Southern • The 28 districts are: • Northern Region: Chitipa, Karonga, Likoma, Mzimba, Nkhata & BayRumphi • Central Region: Dedza, Dowa, Kasungu, Lilongwe, Mchinji, Nkhotakota, Ntcheu, Ntchisi & Salima • Southern Region: Balaka, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Chiradzulu, Machinga, Mangochi, Mulanje, Mwanza, Neno, Nsanje, Phalombe, Thyolo & Zomba
  6. 6. Methodology (2) Various data sources were considered: Variable Description DATA SOURCE hfa2 Height-for-age (Prevalence of stunting) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2017 Wfa2 Weight-for-age (Prevalence of Underweight) (DHS) 2017 Wfh2 Wight-for-height (Prevalence of wasting) (DHS) 2017 diab Prevalence of diabetes (DHS) 2017 bloodp Prevalence of high blood pressure (DHS) 2017 Assis_pp Proportion of females (15-49) getting assistance from doctor, nurse/midwife, (DHS) 2017 medhelp_disthf Proportion of females (15-49) for whom distance to health facility is a big problem (DHS) 2017 pcfood Food expenditure per capita Malawi Housing Census (2018) density_pop_sup Density of inhabited areas (estimated through remote sensing) Malawi Housing Census (2018)
  7. 7. Findings (1): Country vulnerability index • The composite vulnerability index suggests that chronic vulnerability is highest in the Southern Region and lowest in the Northern Region.
  8. 8. Findings (2): Stunting • The prevalence of stunting is highest in 9 districts (Dedza, Neno, Mchinji, Zomba Rural, Ntcheu, Mangochi, Mzimba, Lilongwe Rural and Ntchisi). • 6 districts (Likoma, Blantyre City, Karonga, Zomba City, Lilongwe City, and Mzuzu City) have lower proportions of stunting and are hence considered much less vulnerable
  9. 9. Findings (3): Food consumption per capita • 8 districts (Mulanje, Machinga, Thyolo, Nsanje, Chikwawa, Chradzulu, Chitipa, and Phalombe) spend the least on food and are considered much more vulnerable. • These are mostly Southern region districts.
  10. 10. Findings (4): Access to health services • Nsanje, Mangochi, Salima, Nkhotakota, Ntcheu, Mzimba, and Lilongwe Rural districts have very low proportions of women receiving assistance from a medical professional during birth. • Lilongwe Rural, Phalombe, Machinga, Balaka, Mchinji Dowa, and Neno have the highest proportions of women who stated that distance was a challenge in accessing healthcare.
  11. 11. Findings (5): Disease Burden • Mzuzu City, Lilongwe City, Balaka, Dowa, Neon, Thyolo, Nkhatabay and Likoma have higher proportions of people with blood pressure problems. • Mzuzu City, Mchinji, Zomba City, Nkhotakota, Dedza, Blantyre Rural, Blantyre City, Lilongwe City and Chikwawa have the highest proportions of people with diabetes.
  12. 12. Findings (6): Population density • All the cities (Blantyre City, Lilongwe City, Mzuzu City, and Zomba City) have very high population densities, thus making them much more vulnerable to COVID-19 impacts.
  13. 13. II. Effects of Covid-19 on micronutrient demand • Covid-19-related price changes affect nutrition through their impacts on demand for key micronutrients. • We estimate micronutrient price elasticities and apply them to actual 2020 price changes to predict impacts on micronutrient demand.
  14. 14. Price changes in April-November 2020 • Prices of several staple foods stayed constant or fell slightly in April-Nov 2020 • Maize prices increased in urban and rural areas • This increase followed a sharp decline in maize prices in March -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Beans Groundnuts (shells) Maize Rice Malawi food price changes, April-November 2020 (percent) Urban Rural
  15. 15. Existing micronutrient deficiencies • Households consume close to the recommended level of protein, calcium, and iron. • Consumption of calories and other key nutrients is inadequate, especially for Vitamins B12 and A. • Deficiencies are more severe in rural areas. Note: AME = Adult Male Equivalent
  16. 16. Price elasticities of calories and micronutrients -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 Calories Protein Calcium Iron Zinc Folate Vitamin B12 Vitamin A Rural Cereals & Products Roots, Tubers, and Plantains Nuts and Pulses Vegetables Meat, Fish & products Fruits Milk and Products Cooked Foods from Vendors Sugar & sweet Oils and Fats Beverages Spices & Miscellaneous -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 Calories Protein Calcium Iron Zinc Folate Vitamin B12 Vitamin A Urban Cereals & Products Roots, Tubers, and Plantains Nuts and Pulses Vegetables Meat, Fish & products Fruits Milk and Products Cooked Foods from Vendors Sugar & sweet Oils and Fats Beverages Spices & Miscellaneous • In most cases, demand for nutrients falls when food prices rise • Demand for calories, protein and zinc is most sensitive to changes in cereals prices • Demand for calcium, iron, and vitamin B12 is especially sensitive to changes in meat and fish prices • Demand for Vitamin A is sensitive to changes in vegetable prices
  17. 17. Impact of 2020 food price changes on nutrient demand • Price changes in April-November 2020 are expected to decrease households’ demand for key micronutrients, especially calories, protein, zinc and folate. • Decreases in demand are larger for rural than for urban households.
  18. 18. Key Messages • The impacts of crises are especially severe in areas where chronic vulnerability is high. • Understanding patterns of vulnerability is thus of major importance to guide strategies to prepare for and respond to crises. • Our goal is to identify areas which, if affected by Covid, would have the least capacity to absorb shocks and would face the most serious consequences. 18
  19. 19. Key Messages (continued) • We construct an indicator to measure the level of vulnerability to serious food security consequences of Covid-19. • Three components: Susceptibility to the spread of the disease, inability to care for infected people, and existing food and nutrition insecurity. • We identify areas of particular concern where governments should focus crisis monitoring and mitigation efforts. 19
  20. 20. Key Messages (continued) • Changes in price during 2020 modestly affected consumption of key micronutrients, including calories, protein, zinc and folate. • Even small changes could exacerbate existing micronutrient deficiencies. • Effects were larger in rural areas, which also suffer from greater existing micronutrient deficiencies. 20
  21. 21. THANK YOU • AKADEMIYA2063 – Kicukiro / Niboye KK 360 St 8 I P.O. Box 4729 Kigali-Rwanda

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