SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  20
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Staple Food Price Dynamics and
The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern
Africa: Malawi
Presented at the Malawi Policy Event Learning Event by
Greenwell Matchaya*, PhD
g.matchaya@cgiar.org
Co-contributors: Sibusiso Nhlengethwa*, Bhekiwe Fakudze*; Ikhothetsang
Greffiths* *,ReSAKSS/IWMI
PRESENTATION STRUCTURE
• Introduction
• Key messages
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior in
selected countries
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Malawi
• Conclusions and recommendations
INTRODUCTION
• After February 2020: COVID 19 introduction in Southern Africa
• Control measures to curb the spread of the pandemic : restrictions
of the movement of people, Market bans, border crossing
restrictions, curfews, etc.
• Market disruptions
• A focus on maize markets in Malawi, and the SADC
Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas
• In Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, most of maize supply is locally
produced. In Lesotho, imports from RSA -huge
• But there is also a significant cross-border trade among these
countries
• Major production regions in Mozambique include Zambezia,
Nampula, Manica, and Tete provinces,
• While Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo are generally deficit areas
Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas (cont’d)
• In Zambia, the Eastern, and Central provinces may be considered
surplus,
• While the more urban Lusaka and Copperbelt are generally deficit
areas
• The Southern Region in Malawi is generally a food deficit area,
• whereas the Northern and Central regions may be considered food
surplus, although there are internal spatial variations.
Key Messages
• We focus on local staples and community-level markets which
are often overlooked in international data collection efforts.
• In most of the countries examined, price effects of the Covid
crisis propagated very quickly across space.
• The magnitude of price deviations also increased very quickly.
• In some countries, the shock caused prices to rise in deficit
areas and decline in surplus areas as transport restrictions
took hold.
• But in countries that export staples regionally eg. Malawi,
Zambia, Mozambique, trade restrictions overrode those effects
and prices fell both in surplus and deficit areas.
6
Key Messages (continued)
• In responses to future shocks, care should be taken to
minimize disruptions in local market operations.
• Effects of local market disruptions on incomes, access to food,
etc. can be devastating.
• Measures should be coordinated across countries to respond
to crises while minimizing interference in cross-border trade.
7
Methodology
• Our focus is to test whether the disruptions due to Covid-19 have
affected prices of agricultural commodities.
• We use time series price data, to analyse and predict trends
• For the predictions of prices, we utilize the Seasonal Auto
Retrogressive Integrated Moving Average models (SARIMA)
• We also cross-check the robustness of the results with the
Difference- in-Difference methodologies where appropriate
MAIZE GRAIN PRICES CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN DEFICIT AREAS IN MALAWI
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Southern Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Malawi
Kwacha/kg
Maize prices
South Centre North
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Malawi
Kwacha/kg
Maize prices
Blantyre Lilongwe Mzimba
MAIZE GRAIN PRICES CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN DEFICIT AREAS IN MALAWI AND
ZAMBIA
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Southern Africa
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
ZMW/Kg
Maize Grain Prices in Zambia
Average Prices in Surplus Provinces Average Prices in Deficit Provinces
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1st
Week
Jan
4th
Week
Jan
2nd
Week
Feb
1s
Week
March
1st
week
April
4th
Week
April
3rd
Week
May
2nd
Wk
Jun19
1st
Wk
Jul19
4th
Wk
Jul19
2nd
Wk
Aug19
1st
Week
Sep
4th
Week
Sep
3rd
Week
Oct
2nd
Week
Nov
1st
Week
Dec
4th
Week
Dec
3rd
Week
Jan
1st
Week
Feb
4th
Week
Feb
new_maize
3rd
Week
April
2nd
Week
May
2019 2020
Malawian
Kwacha
(MK/kg)
Price (MK/kg)
Blantyre Nsanje
Maize grain prices increased in Lesotho- a deficit country, but decreased in
Mozambique
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior
Southern Africa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
LSL/KG
Urban price dynamics in Lesotho
Observed Price Maseru Predicted Price Maseru
Observed price Berea predicted price Berea
• Many markets experienced a rapid deviation in prices from predicted prices
COVID-19-related market disruptions and staple food price
behavior outside Southern Africa
RAPID INCREASE IN THE SHARE OF MARKETS WITH LOWER-THAN-PREDICTED PRICES FOR
MALAWI
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Rural primary markets
Rising prices Declining prices
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Urban markets
Rising prices Declining prices
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-Malawi
• Prices declined in both urban and rural areas in Malawi, relative to model predictions
• Maize prices declined significantly in March, April and May but started to stabilize in June
with the easing of confinement measures. More reduction in surplus markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
PRICE
PER
KG(MK)
Urban Maize prices
Actual Price Predicted Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
PRICE
PER
KG(MK)
Rural primary maize markets
Actual Price Predicted Price
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price
behavior-Malawi
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
 COVID-19 pandemic has led to some governments measures to control
the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic
 Government pronouncements relating to the need to observe social
distancing to limit the spread, have impeded arbitrage between markets
and further led to rising supplies relative to demand,
 The reduced demand, together with an increase in supplies from the
harvest season have led to rapidly falling prices in local markets
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 Other direct confinement and containment measures too have led to a
general downward trend in prices.
 Affecting the movement of goods and impacting on the cost of food
consumed in the population.
 This happened in each of the focus markets Malawi
• The confinements may have created difficulties in cross-border trade and
may have played a greater role in determining price behavior across the
board in each country, not just in border areas.
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 The potential negative impact from the observed decline in prices shows
the critical importance of trans-border trade for smallholder farmers and
small businesses.
 For instance, while the downward prices many have been good for
consumers, they likely hurt the ability of producers and aggregators to
produce in future.
• To avoid enormous negative effects on demand, future restrictions and
interventions should be sequenced such that the impact on domestic
markets and cross-border operations are minimized
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 Government support to small food supply businesses would be a good
initiative to minimize the impact on producer and aggregator households.

FURTHER INFORMATION
https://www.akademiya2063.org/events.php?lang=en
www.resakss.org
https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/
Thank
You

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central Africa
Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central AfricaCovid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central Africa
Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central AfricaAKADEMIYA2063
 
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...AKADEMIYA2063
 
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...AKADEMIYA2063
 
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern AfricaStaple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern AfricaAKADEMIYA2063
 
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy Responses
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy ResponsesCOVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy Responses
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy ResponsesTurlough Guerin GAICD FGIA
 
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19Francois Stepman
 
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...AKADEMIYA2063
 
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?Francois Stepman
 
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future Prospects
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future ProspectsEast Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future Prospects
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future ProspectsMalachy Mitchell
 
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...essp2
 

Tendances (20)

Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central Africa
Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central AfricaCovid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central Africa
Covid-19 Vulnerability Hotspots in Central Africa
 
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...
Food Staple Market Dynamics: Tracking Local Millet Prices in Senegal During T...
 
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...
Presentation of the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, September 10, AGRF...
 
Nichodemus rudaheranwa2
Nichodemus rudaheranwa2Nichodemus rudaheranwa2
Nichodemus rudaheranwa2
 
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern AfricaStaple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa
Staple Food System Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa
 
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy Responses
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy ResponsesCOVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy Responses
COVID-19 and the Food and Agriculture Sector: Issues and Policy Responses
 
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19
RAPID Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19
 
COVID-19 and Its Impact on African Trade
COVID-19 and Its Impact on African TradeCOVID-19 and Its Impact on African Trade
COVID-19 and Its Impact on African Trade
 
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...
2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session V Enabling Environment for T...
 
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?
COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: How to respond?
 
The Rise in Global Commodity Prices: Implication for Ethiopia
The Rise in Global Commodity Prices: Implication for EthiopiaThe Rise in Global Commodity Prices: Implication for Ethiopia
The Rise in Global Commodity Prices: Implication for Ethiopia
 
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future Prospects
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future ProspectsEast Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future Prospects
East Africa's Role in GCC Food & Agribusiness and Future Prospects
 
Global Food Price Trends and Implications for Food Security
Global Food Price Trends and Implications for Food SecurityGlobal Food Price Trends and Implications for Food Security
Global Food Price Trends and Implications for Food Security
 
Sudan: The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Economy, Household Income, and Poverty
Sudan: The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Economy, Household Income, and PovertySudan: The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Economy, Household Income, and Poverty
Sudan: The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Economy, Household Income, and Poverty
 
COVID-19 & Global Food Systems
COVID-19 & Global Food SystemsCOVID-19 & Global Food Systems
COVID-19 & Global Food Systems
 
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...
COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...
 
2015 ReSAKSS Conference – Day 1 - Ousmane Badiane
2015 ReSAKSS Conference – Day 1 - Ousmane Badiane2015 ReSAKSS Conference – Day 1 - Ousmane Badiane
2015 ReSAKSS Conference – Day 1 - Ousmane Badiane
 
Impact of COVID-19 on the fiscal space for agricultural transformation in Africa
Impact of COVID-19 on the fiscal space for agricultural transformation in AfricaImpact of COVID-19 on the fiscal space for agricultural transformation in Africa
Impact of COVID-19 on the fiscal space for agricultural transformation in Africa
 
Inclusive Food Systems: Before and After COVID-19
Inclusive Food Systems: Before and After COVID-19Inclusive Food Systems: Before and After COVID-19
Inclusive Food Systems: Before and After COVID-19
 
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Household Welfare, Food Security, and Agri...
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Household Welfare, Food Security, and Agri...Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Household Welfare, Food Security, and Agri...
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Household Welfare, Food Security, and Agri...
 

Similaire à Malawi Policy Learning Event - Staple Food Price Dynamics - April 28, 2021

Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the Region
Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the RegionPrice Incentives for maize in Malawi and the Region
Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the RegionIFPRIMaSSP
 
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapemba
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapembaMalawi nd2010 ppt-mapemba
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapembaJulien Grollier
 
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern Africa
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern AfricaPolicy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern Africa
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern AfricaIFPRIMaSSP
 
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...AKADEMIYA2063
 
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapemba
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapembaInformal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapemba
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapembaJulien Grollier
 
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...IFPRIMaSSP
 
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICAGFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICAIFPRI Africa
 
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...Premier Publishers
 
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...IFPRIMaSSP
 
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in Malawi
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in MalawiFertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in Malawi
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in MalawiIFPRIMaSSP
 
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic - April 2...
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic -  April 2...Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic -  April 2...
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic - April 2...AKADEMIYA2063
 
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaZambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaJulien Grollier
 
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaZambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaJulien Grollier
 
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for MalawiPublic grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for MalawiIFPRIMaSSP
 

Similaire à Malawi Policy Learning Event - Staple Food Price Dynamics - April 28, 2021 (20)

Malawi Learning Event - Effects of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production, Food ...
Malawi Learning Event - Effects of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production, Food ...Malawi Learning Event - Effects of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production, Food ...
Malawi Learning Event - Effects of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production, Food ...
 
Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the Region
Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the RegionPrice Incentives for maize in Malawi and the Region
Price Incentives for maize in Malawi and the Region
 
Food Price Volatility and Resilience in Africa
Food Price Volatility and Resilience in AfricaFood Price Volatility and Resilience in Africa
Food Price Volatility and Resilience in Africa
 
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapemba
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapembaMalawi nd2010 ppt-mapemba
Malawi nd2010 ppt-mapemba
 
AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: Effects of COVID-19 on Staple F...
AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: Effects of COVID-19 on Staple F...AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: Effects of COVID-19 on Staple F...
AKADEMIYA2063-Ecowas Regional Learning event: Effects of COVID-19 on Staple F...
 
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern Africa
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern AfricaPolicy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern Africa
Policy and Price Stability: Evidence From Southern and Eastern Africa
 
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...
Effects of Gobal Primary Commodity Market Disruption on Growth and Poverty in...
 
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapemba
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapembaInformal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapemba
Informal stakeholder meeting_malawi-lawrence_mapemba
 
Balancing disciplines & policy space in agricultural trade
Balancing disciplines & policy space in agricultural tradeBalancing disciplines & policy space in agricultural trade
Balancing disciplines & policy space in agricultural trade
 
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...
Maize Marketing Policies and Export Bans in Malawi: Implications for Food Sec...
 
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICAGFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA
GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - ZambiaGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
 
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...
Estimating NTBs costs of Maize Production and Marketing for Smallholder Farme...
 
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...
Discretionary Policy Interventions in Malawi: An Impact Analysis of Export Ba...
 
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in Malawi
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in MalawiFertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in Malawi
Fertiliser Subsidy Reforms and Maize in Malawi
 
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic - April 2...
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic -  April 2...Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic -  April 2...
Malawi Policy Learning Event - Trade in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic - April 2...
 
Malawi Learning Event - Trade in Time of COVID-19 Pandemic - April, 28, 2021
Malawi Learning Event - Trade in Time of COVID-19 Pandemic - April, 28, 2021Malawi Learning Event - Trade in Time of COVID-19 Pandemic - April, 28, 2021
Malawi Learning Event - Trade in Time of COVID-19 Pandemic - April, 28, 2021
 
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaZambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
 
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudendaZambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
Zambia nd2010 ppt-mudenda
 
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for MalawiPublic grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi
 

Plus de AKADEMIYA2063

AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56] - Read-Only (1).pptx
AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56]  -  Read-Only (1).pptxAKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56]  -  Read-Only (1).pptx
AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56] - Read-Only (1).pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAugustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
 Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS ConferenceAKADEMIYA2063
 
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxLea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxPrince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxSilver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference AKADEMIYA2063
 
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMs. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAKADEMIYA2063
 

Plus de AKADEMIYA2063 (20)

AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56] - Read-Only (1).pptx
AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56]  -  Read-Only (1).pptxAKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56]  -  Read-Only (1).pptx
AKADEMIYA2063_SE-GH2forEnergyTransition_MD[56] - Read-Only (1).pptx
 
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxAugustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Kenao Lao - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Mr. Wondwosen Tefera - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Keith Fuglie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Greenwell Matchaya et al - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Getaw Tadesse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fatima Kareem - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Fleur Wouterse - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ebenezer M. Kwofie - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
 Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Dr. Agnes Quisumbing - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
 
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxLea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Lea Magne-Domgho - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxPrince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Prince Agyemang - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Paul Guthiga - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. John Ulimwengu - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxSilver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Silver Nanema - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
Mrs. Tsitsi Makombe - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference
 
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxMs. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Ms. Julie Collins - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr. Ousmane Badiane - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptxDr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
Dr Jean Paul Latyr FAYE - 2023 ReSAKSS Conference.pptx
 

Dernier

Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxMapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxVenkatasubramani13
 
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics InfrastructureChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructuresonikadigital1
 
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .ppt
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .pptMEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .ppt
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .pptaigil2
 
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.JasonViviers2
 
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?sonikadigital1
 
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Guido X Jansen
 
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxTINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxDwiAyuSitiHartinah
 
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Vladislav Solodkiy
 
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)Data & Analytics Magazin
 
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...PrithaVashisht1
 
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best PracticesDataArchiva
 
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024Becky Burwell
 
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product IntroductionVirtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introductionsanjaymuralee1
 
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationMaster's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationGiorgio Carbone
 
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionCI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionajayrajaganeshkayala
 
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerThe Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerPavel Šabatka
 
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityStrategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityAggregage
 

Dernier (17)

Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxMapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
 
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics InfrastructureChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
 
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .ppt
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .pptMEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .ppt
MEASURES OF DISPERSION I BSc Botany .ppt
 
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.
YourView Panel Book.pptx YourView Panel Book.
 
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
 
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
 
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxTINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
 
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
 
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
AI for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
 
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
 
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
 
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024
SFBA Splunk Usergroup meeting March 13, 2024
 
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product IntroductionVirtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
 
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationMaster's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
 
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionCI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
 
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerThe Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
 
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityStrategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
 

Malawi Policy Learning Event - Staple Food Price Dynamics - April 28, 2021

  • 1. Staple Food Price Dynamics and The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern Africa: Malawi Presented at the Malawi Policy Event Learning Event by Greenwell Matchaya*, PhD g.matchaya@cgiar.org Co-contributors: Sibusiso Nhlengethwa*, Bhekiwe Fakudze*; Ikhothetsang Greffiths* *,ReSAKSS/IWMI
  • 2. PRESENTATION STRUCTURE • Introduction • Key messages • COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior in selected countries • COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior- Malawi • Conclusions and recommendations
  • 3. INTRODUCTION • After February 2020: COVID 19 introduction in Southern Africa • Control measures to curb the spread of the pandemic : restrictions of the movement of people, Market bans, border crossing restrictions, curfews, etc. • Market disruptions • A focus on maize markets in Malawi, and the SADC
  • 4. Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas • In Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, most of maize supply is locally produced. In Lesotho, imports from RSA -huge • But there is also a significant cross-border trade among these countries • Major production regions in Mozambique include Zambezia, Nampula, Manica, and Tete provinces, • While Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo are generally deficit areas
  • 5. Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas (cont’d) • In Zambia, the Eastern, and Central provinces may be considered surplus, • While the more urban Lusaka and Copperbelt are generally deficit areas • The Southern Region in Malawi is generally a food deficit area, • whereas the Northern and Central regions may be considered food surplus, although there are internal spatial variations.
  • 6. Key Messages • We focus on local staples and community-level markets which are often overlooked in international data collection efforts. • In most of the countries examined, price effects of the Covid crisis propagated very quickly across space. • The magnitude of price deviations also increased very quickly. • In some countries, the shock caused prices to rise in deficit areas and decline in surplus areas as transport restrictions took hold. • But in countries that export staples regionally eg. Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, trade restrictions overrode those effects and prices fell both in surplus and deficit areas. 6
  • 7. Key Messages (continued) • In responses to future shocks, care should be taken to minimize disruptions in local market operations. • Effects of local market disruptions on incomes, access to food, etc. can be devastating. • Measures should be coordinated across countries to respond to crises while minimizing interference in cross-border trade. 7
  • 8. Methodology • Our focus is to test whether the disruptions due to Covid-19 have affected prices of agricultural commodities. • We use time series price data, to analyse and predict trends • For the predictions of prices, we utilize the Seasonal Auto Retrogressive Integrated Moving Average models (SARIMA) • We also cross-check the robustness of the results with the Difference- in-Difference methodologies where appropriate
  • 9. MAIZE GRAIN PRICES CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN DEFICIT AREAS IN MALAWI COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior- Southern Africa 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Malawi Kwacha/kg Maize prices South Centre North 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Malawi Kwacha/kg Maize prices Blantyre Lilongwe Mzimba
  • 10. MAIZE GRAIN PRICES CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN DEFICIT AREAS IN MALAWI AND ZAMBIA COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior- Southern Africa 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 ZMW/Kg Maize Grain Prices in Zambia Average Prices in Surplus Provinces Average Prices in Deficit Provinces 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1st Week Jan 4th Week Jan 2nd Week Feb 1s Week March 1st week April 4th Week April 3rd Week May 2nd Wk Jun19 1st Wk Jul19 4th Wk Jul19 2nd Wk Aug19 1st Week Sep 4th Week Sep 3rd Week Oct 2nd Week Nov 1st Week Dec 4th Week Dec 3rd Week Jan 1st Week Feb 4th Week Feb new_maize 3rd Week April 2nd Week May 2019 2020 Malawian Kwacha (MK/kg) Price (MK/kg) Blantyre Nsanje
  • 11. Maize grain prices increased in Lesotho- a deficit country, but decreased in Mozambique COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior Southern Africa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 LSL/KG Urban price dynamics in Lesotho Observed Price Maseru Predicted Price Maseru Observed price Berea predicted price Berea
  • 12. • Many markets experienced a rapid deviation in prices from predicted prices COVID-19-related market disruptions and staple food price behavior outside Southern Africa
  • 13. RAPID INCREASE IN THE SHARE OF MARKETS WITH LOWER-THAN-PREDICTED PRICES FOR MALAWI 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Rural primary markets Rising prices Declining prices 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Urban markets Rising prices Declining prices COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-Malawi
  • 14. • Prices declined in both urban and rural areas in Malawi, relative to model predictions • Maize prices declined significantly in March, April and May but started to stabilize in June with the easing of confinement measures. More reduction in surplus markets 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PRICE PER KG(MK) Urban Maize prices Actual Price Predicted Price 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PRICE PER KG(MK) Rural primary maize markets Actual Price Predicted Price COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-Malawi
  • 15. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS  COVID-19 pandemic has led to some governments measures to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic  Government pronouncements relating to the need to observe social distancing to limit the spread, have impeded arbitrage between markets and further led to rising supplies relative to demand,  The reduced demand, together with an increase in supplies from the harvest season have led to rapidly falling prices in local markets
  • 16. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)  Other direct confinement and containment measures too have led to a general downward trend in prices.  Affecting the movement of goods and impacting on the cost of food consumed in the population.  This happened in each of the focus markets Malawi • The confinements may have created difficulties in cross-border trade and may have played a greater role in determining price behavior across the board in each country, not just in border areas.
  • 17. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)  The potential negative impact from the observed decline in prices shows the critical importance of trans-border trade for smallholder farmers and small businesses.  For instance, while the downward prices many have been good for consumers, they likely hurt the ability of producers and aggregators to produce in future. • To avoid enormous negative effects on demand, future restrictions and interventions should be sequenced such that the impact on domestic markets and cross-border operations are minimized
  • 18. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)  Government support to small food supply businesses would be a good initiative to minimize the impact on producer and aggregator households. 