African countries have diversified both their exports and trade partners over the last decade, African agricultural trade still suffers from structural problems as well as exogenous shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) analyzes continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. The report finds that many African countries continue to enjoy the most success in global markets with cash crops and niche products. At the intra-African level, countries are becoming more interconnected in trade of key commodities, but there remain many potential but unexploited trade relationships. The report examines the livestock sector in detail, finding that despite its important role in Africa, the sector is concentrated in low value- added products that are informally traded. The report also examines trade integration in the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), which remains limited due to factors including tariffs, nontariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and weak institutions. Finally, the report discusses the implications of two major events affecting African trade in 2020 and 2021: the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

1. Presented by
Ousmane Badiane
Executive Chairperson AKADEMIYA2063
Editors:
Antoine Bouet, International Food Policy Research Institute
Getaw Tadesse, AKADEMIYA2063
Chahir Zaki, Cairo University

2. 2021 AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRADE MONITOR
SELECTED KEY ISSUES AND QUESTIONS
What is Africa’s position in global markets?
What is the competitiveness of African exports?
What is happening to diversification of traded products?
What is the degree of value addition in traded goods?
Are African countries trading more with one another?
Has Covid affected trade?
Trade in livestock sector
Trade in Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)
CHAPTERS NOT COVERED IN PRESENTATION

3. Share of African Exports in World Exports: Selected Sectors: 2003-2019 (%)
AFRICA IS STILL TO GROW ITS GLOBAL TRADE POSITION
Trade shares have remained flat; dominated by Cocoa, Coffee, Tobacco, oilseeds

4. Share of products with comparative advantage by sector and processing stage (%)
TRENDS IN COMPETITIVENESS OF AFRICAN EXPORTS IN GLOBAL MARKETS
Rising competitiveness for a growling share of products

5. Adapted from Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009)
DIVERSIFICATION AND SOPHISTICATION OF AFRICAN EXPORTS
Degree of Diversification
Degree
of
Ubiquity
FEW, LOW VALUE GOODS
FEW, HIGH VALUE GOODS
MANY, LOW VALUE GOODS
MANY, HIGH VALUE GOODS

6. LOWER SOPHISTICATION
LOWER DIVERSIFICATION
HIGHER SOPHISTICATION
HIGHER DIVERSIFICATION
65% of African
Countries 15% of African
Countries
HIGHER SOPHISTICATION
LOWER DIVERSIFICATION
LOWER SOPHISTICATION
HIGHER DIVERSIFICATION
Classification of African and other exporters: 2003-2005
DIVERSIFICATION
UBIQUITY
UBIQUITY
DIVERSIFICATION
Classification of African and other exporters: 2017-2019
35% of African
Countries 85% of African
Countries
DIVERSIFICATION AND SOPHISTICATION OF AFRICAN EXPORTS
ZAF
ZAF
EGY
EGY
CHN
CHN
GER
GER
Countries moved from Few Low Value exports
But have only managed Few Higher Value exports
Only ZAF and EGY achieved Many Higher Value exports
LOWER SOPHISTICATION
LOWER DIVERSIFICATION
HIGHER SOPHISTICATION
HIGHER DIVERSIFICATION
HIGHER SOPHISTICATION
LOWER DIVERSIFICATION
LOWER SOPHISTICATION
HIGHER DIVERSIFICATION

7. TRENDS IN INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
1. Declined from peak in 2013; Stable last 5 years
2. Processed products account for 50 percent
3. Semi-processed make up another 25 percent
4. Unprocessed continued declining trends
US$
Billion

8. Selected Key Traded
Agricultural Products
2015-2019
# of Countries
Both Exporting
and Importing
# of Bilateral Trade
Links between
Countries
Share of Actual over
Total Possible Trade
Links (%)
Rice 42 213 (-13) 7.7 (-13)
Maize 35 240 (+10) 9.8 (+10)
Wheat 20 74 (-35) 5.0 (-9)
Beans 38 223 (+9) 7.8 (+3)
Potatoes 32 164 (+24) 6.7 (+29)
Onions & Shallots 31 191 (+29) 7.2 (+24)
Tomatoes 28 113 (+18) 4.8 (+9)
Bananas & Plantains 26 98 (+20) 4.7 (+9)
Citrus Fruits 32 197 (+35) 6.9 (+6)
Apples 25 119 (-8) 4.5 (-6)
Figures in parentheses represent change compared to 2003-2007 in %
DYNAMICS OF INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE NETWORKS
Networks getting denser, more interconnected; Trade relations expanding, still below potential

9. Selected Key Traded
Agricultural Products
2015-2019
# of Countries
Both Exporting
and Importing
# of Bilateral Trade
Links between
Countries
Share of Actual over
Total Possible Trade
Links (%)
Rice 42 213 (-13) 7.7 (-13)
Maize 35 240 (+10) 9.8 (+10)
Wheat 20 74 (-35) 5.0 (-9)
Beans 38 223 (+9) 7.8 (+3)
Potatoes 32 164 (+24) 6.7 (+29)
Onions & Shallots 31 191 (+29) 7.2 (+24)
Tomatoes 28 113 (+18) 4.8 (+9)
Bananas & Plantains 26 98 (+20) 4.7 (+9)
Citrus Fruits 32 197 (+35) 6.9 (+6)
Apples 25 119 (-8) 4.5 (-6)
Figures in parentheses represent change compared to 2003-2007 in %
DYNAMICS OF INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE NETWORKS
Networks getting denser, more interconnected; Trade relations expanding, still below potential

10. Selected Key Traded
Agricultural
Products 2015-2019
Reciprocity Index
(Share of 2-way
trade in total)
Trade
Concentration
(Share of top 10
country pairs)
Clustering
Coefficient
(Frequency of
trade triangles)
Regional
Homophily
(Likely trading
within regions)
Rice 0.376 67 0.348 0.432
Maize 0.408 59 0.365 0.362
Wheat 0.270 8 0.332 0.504
Beans 0.404 69 0.320 0.317
Potatoes 0.293 78 0.284 0.364
Onions & Shallots 0.314 89 0.328 0.369
Tomatoes 0.266 83 0.222 0.365
Bananas & Plantains 0.204 82 0.283 0.502
Citrus Fruits 0.223 51 0.234 0.188
Apples 0.067 72 0.150 0.213
DYNAMICS OF INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE NETWORKS
Relatively high degree of concentration with regional clustering of trading relationships

11. Selected Key Traded
Agricultural
Products 2015-2019
Reciprocity Index
(Share of 2-way
trade in total)
Trade
Concentration
(Share of top 10
country pairs)
Clustering
Coefficient
(Frequency of
trade triangles)
Regional
Homophily
(Likely trading
within regions)
Rice 0.376 67 0.348 0.432
Maize 0.408 59 0.365 0.362
Wheat 0.270 8 0.332 0.504
Beans 0.404 69 0.320 0.317
Potatoes 0.293 78 0.284 0.364
Onions & Shallots 0.314 89 0.328 0.369
Tomatoes 0.266 83 0.222 0.365
Bananas & Plantains 0.204 82 0.283 0.502
Citrus Fruits 0.223 51 0.234 0.188
Apples 0.067 72 0.150 0.213
DYNAMICS OF INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE NETWORKS
Relatively high degree of concentration with regional clustering of trading relationships

12. Both formal and informal cross-border trade severely affected
50 per cent of countries enacted border closures to trade in response to Covid-19
IMPACT OF COVID ON REGIONAL TRADE

13. THANK Y0U
Access the 2021 AATM Report at
https://akademiya2063.org/index.php
https://www.resakss.org
www.agrodep.org