In this short webcast, Jim Greer discusses the benefits of a Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning approach particularly in this dynamic and complex environment. To access this presentation complete with audio, please visit us at www.alisinc.com in our Professional Development tab.
This briefing outlines the Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. (ALIS) program to educate of planners, analysts and decision makers in strategic foresight, alternative futures and scenario-based planning.The ALIS, Inc. Program is IACET compliant. Continuing Education Units can be awarded.
Instructor Notes:What do we mean?What are some examples of acceleration relevant to your organization?What is a reframe?What are tightly coupled vs loosely coupled systems?The degree of interdependency affects coupling
Instructor Notes:Making present decisions with a eye on the future.What are some examples of that aspect of strategic planning from their work?What is the contribution of strategic foresight to Drucker’s definition?Does strategic foresight contribute to near-term decisions? If so, how?
Instructor Notes:Ask the students to describe the strategic planning approach their organization uses?Is it Sequential?Is it Segregating?Is it Rigid?Is it Procedural?Emphasize these models are all aimed at process. There is no content! No problem solving! No breadth and depth! No futures!
Instructor Notes:Definition from “Thinking About the Future” by Hines and BishopWhat leaps out from the definition? What word (s) did you key in on?How will your organization use the results of strategic foresight?
Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentScan for trends, discontinuities, wild cards, and variablesForecast a range of alternative futuresDevelop a strategic vision based on futures implicationsConduct scenario-based planningProvide strategic guidance, strategic communications, a plan of action and a learning system.
Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentSet conditions by building an effective teamUnderstand the rationale, purpose and objectives for the strategic foresight effortMap the current environment
Instructor Notes:Scanning is how we learn what we know in order to engage in strategic foresight, development of alternative futures and scenario-based planning.This is not possible without an organizational learning system. If we don’t have one, we must create one. Scanning must have both breadth and depth.
Instructor Notes:This is one of the most important concepts. Perhaps the most important takeaway from the entire module.The psycho-motor domain equates to training and has a very technical and physical focus.The cognitive domain equates to education and has a very mental focus.The affective domain equates to socialization and has a very moral focus.We have to learn in all three domains if we are to be effective in our strategic foresight efforts.Ask the group, where are current metrics (data collection for learning) focused?Why do we lag in affective learning?Our culture tends to be more technical.We are ethno-centric (we mirror image others rather than learning about them)We are drawn to quantitative vice qualitative assessmentsHow can affective learning improve our strategic foresight and resiliency?
Instructor Notes:The organization must learn in all three loopsMany organizations stay in the single loop modeTriple Loop learning is in all three domains.
Instructor Notes:STEEP = Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and PoliticalAdd – Bureaucratic, information, what others?Differentiate between the types of futures.Preferable – I win the lotteryProbably – I don’t win the lotteryPlausible – I get 4 or 5 numbers right and win a small amountPossible – I win $600 million in the Powerball
Instructor Notes:Goal is a strategic vision that is optimized across all probably futures and satisfices across plausible futuresAssumptions must be challenged, refined, rejected, proposed, testedImplications are critical to scenario-based planning that followsPosit an alternative future in which the US engages in a war in Korea with significant casualtiesWhat are the implications?What are the 2d and 3d order effects?What are the long-range consequences?What are some unintended consequences?What current assumptions do we have that would be invalidated?
Instructor Notes:Organizational innovation is both an individual and collaborative effortLeaders set the tone for innovation. As with most things, unless the leader creates conditions for and promotes innovation, it won’t happen. What might a leader do to promote creativity and innovation?What are considerations for allocating resources to innovation?Probability of outcomeRange of possible gainRiskDesperation?Creative capabilities resident in organization.What management practices will hinder innovation?BureaucracyRisk aversionBias“not invented here syndrome”“the way we’ve always done it” syndromeLack of confidence on the part of leaders
Instructor Notes:One of the critical aspects of strategic foresight is the transition to scenario-based planningScenarios are adjustments off the alternative futures from forecastingMore definition. Focus on what’s relevant to the major issuesUse the scenarios to develop and then synthesize strategic options.
Instructor Notes:Applied Design is an adaptation off the Army Design MethodologyFocuses on framing current and desired environmentIdentifying the problems getting from here to thereDevelop innovative solutions to those problemsAssess throughout planning and executionMake organizational adaptations as identified in conceptual or detailed planning
Instructor Notes:Scenario planning serves multiple purposes; not just strategic planningEffective scenarios are structured to address each of these requirementsWhich of the purposes do the members of the group think most important? Elicit answers from groupWhat other purposes might scenario-based planning serve? Elicit answers from group.Marketing/strategic communications supportAdoption of new roles and responsibilitiesArgument for resources
Instructor Notes:Without action strategic foresight is worthlessStrategic foresight enables effective Executive and strategic messaging. The Futures works enables the development of themes and messages and provides support for innovations and resource investments.Strategic guidance derived from foresight and scenario-based planning guides the future operations of the entire organization.Strategic foresight also provides insights into and the basis for what should be assessed and how.The organizational learning system put in place for strategic foresight is adapted to execution and assessment
Instructor Notes:Starting from an alternative future and the understanding of the trends, discontinuities, etcWe apply this process to develop scenariosUse brainstorming and affinity diagrams to develop ideas about the scenarioPut as much detail into the timeline as necessary
Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentScan for trends, discontinuities, wild cards, and variablesForecast a range of alternative futuresDevelop a strategic vision based on futures implicationsConduct scenario-based planningProvide strategic guidance, strategic communications, a plan of action and a learning system.
This briefing outlines the Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. (ALIS) program to educate of planners, analysts and decision makers in strategic foresight, alternative futures and scenario-based planning.The ALIS, Inc. Program is IACET compliant. Continuing Education Units can be awarded.