2. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
2
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
3. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
3Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
4. Dunkin’ Brands reduces costs and risks by
spreading responsibilities
4Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Source: DNKN Website
5. Sales royalties comprise of 63% of the annual revenue for
Dunkin’ Brands
5Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Source: DNKN 2015 10-K
6. Dunkin’ Brands is structured into four segments
6Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
75%
13%
6%
6%
7. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
7Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
8. Dunkin’ Brands occupy a unique market segment
8Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
High PriceLow Price
High Quality
Low Quality Source: fastfoodmenuprices.com
9. 9
Dunkin’ is utilizing strategic promotions and
advertising to declining same store sales growth
9Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Promotions and Advertising DD Perks® Rewards
Source: Brand Promotions
10. Dunkin’ seeks to maximize sales revenue by
responding to consumer trends and competition
10Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Introducing healthy
options
Increasing variety of
popular products
All day menu items
Source: dunkindonuts.ccm
67% of Dunkin’ Donuts sales come
from coffee
Introduced espresso-based beverages
and cold brewed coffee
Increasingly health conscious
consumers
DD Smart® labels on menus
Capitalizing on popularity of
breakfast items
Directly responding to
competition from McDonald’s
11. Dunkin’ introduces new products to reach other
consumer segments and expand market share
11Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
● More than 150 million sold between May
and December of 2015
● 360 million more cups of coffee sold
following K-cup launch
Home
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Work Eating Place Traveling Other
Coffee Consumption in the U.S. By Location In 2016
Source: statista.com
Source: dunkindonuts.com
12. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
12Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuatio
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
13. GROW DD U.S. same store sales and profitability
Revenue growth is primarily driven by same store
sales growth and store expansion
13Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuatio
ACCELERATE DD U.S. store expansion
DRIVE international growth across both
brands
SHORT-TERM
GROWTH DRIVER
MEDIUM-TERM
GROWTH DRIVER
LONG-TERM
GROWTH DRIVER Source: MarketRealist
GROW same store sales growth
of BR U.S.
14. Declining Dunkin’ Donuts U.S. same-store sales growth
pose a risk to future growth
14Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuatio
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (E)
DD U.S. Same Store Sales Growth
5.1%
4.2%
3.4%
1.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Source: Annual Reports
15. 15Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Number of Dunkin’ Donuts Stores Worldwide
U.S. International
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
These risks are mitigated by stable growth in domestic
Dunkin’ Donuts stores
Source: Dunkin’ Donuts Annual Reports
16. Dunkin’ Brands is aggressively expanding into
international markets
16Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
● Dunkin’ signs largest
development agreement in
company history in China
● European Expansion: first
restaurant openings in
Denmark, Georgia, Iceland,
and Poland
● Master franchise agreement
in South Africa
Source: Market Realist
17. Dunkin’ is expected to experience Revenue growth of
5.5% through 2020
17Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Source: 10-K & Projections
Revenue
CAGR=5.5%
18. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
18Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
19. The firm value is ~$6.25B, suggesting an appropriate
price per share of $45.16
19Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
20. Cost growth matches revenue growth, bringing DNKN
gradual increases in net income
20Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuation
WACC: 3.22% Terminal Growth Rate: 2.25% Beta: 0.46
Current Market Value:
$4.09B
Estimated Market Value:
$6.25B
Current Share Price:
$44.61
Estimated Share Price:
$45.16
21. Dunkin’ Brands is fairly valued; the firm is positioned for low,
steady growth and should be valued at $45.16 per share
21Franchise Model Adaptability Growth Valuatio
Adaptable Core
Business
Low Risk
Franchise Model
Stable Revenue
Growth
Currently Fairly
Valued
● Room for expansion with limited capital investment
● Collects revenue royalty, advertising contributions, and licensing
fees from franchisees and partners
● Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain
consumers in unique segment of the market
● Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of
interactions with consumers
● More than 19,000 points of distribution globally
● Three consecutive years of over 5% growth in stores
● Increased expansion into international markets
● The firm is valued at $6.25B, implying a target share price
of $45.16
22. 22Appendix
Appendix
23. Historical Share Prices
24. Key Financial Ratios
25. Base Case DCF
26. Bull Case DCF
27. Bear Case DCF
28. Beta Calculation
29. WACC
30. Sensitivity to Terminal Growth Rate
31. Sensitivity to Beta
32. Sensitivity to Return on Debt
33. Revenue
34. Cost of Goods Sold
35. Selling, General & Administrative
36. Other
37. Franchise Logistics
39. Five Part Plan
40. Advertising
42. Research & Development
43. Supply Chain
46. Debt Financing
49. Advisory Boards
50. Industry at a Glance
51. Market Share
52. Industry Revenue
53. Industry Life Cycle
54. Industry Sales by Product
55. Sector Costs vs. Industry Costs
56. Labor Intensity vs. Capital Intensity
57. Consumer Economic Demographics
58. Smartphones vs. Consumerism
60. Technology Trends
61. Consumer Loyalty
63. Mobile Payments
64. Location-Based Marketing
65. Mobile Ordering
66. Brand Entertainment & Engagement
67. Consumer-QSR Characteristics & Offerings
68. QSR Menu Categories
69. Size of Operations
70. Additional Risks
72. Commodity Volatility
74. Japan Joint Venture
75. South Korea Joint Venture
76. Other Joint Ventures
77. Leadership and Management
79. Dunkin’ Donuts Products
80. Baskin Robbins Products
81. Mobile Apps and Functions
83. DD Perks
84. DD Smart
85. Dunkin’ Donuts SWOT
86. Baskin Robbins SWOT
87. Starbucks SWOT
88. McDonald’s SWOT
89. Carvel SWOT
90. Coffee and Tea Industry Breakdown
91. Ice Cream and Gelato Industry Breakdown
92. Perceptual Map Prices
93. Additional Promotions
94. Social Media
95. Espresso-Based Beverages
33. Revenue
33Appendix
● The two important drivers of revenues are (1) same store sales growth and (2) store growth
○ (1) Same store sales growth has been declining and were negative for the first time in Q4
2015 which is worrisome for Dunkin’ prospects
○ (2) Over 19,000 points of distribution and steadily growing at over 5% in each of the last 3
years
● Dunkin’ generates revenue from five primary sources: (1) royalty income and franchise fees, (2)
rental income from restaurant properties that are leased or subleased to franchisees, (3) sales of
ice cream and other products to franchisees in certain international markets, (4) retail store
revenue at company-operated restaurants, (5) other income
● Breakdown of 2015 revenue: Total- $810,933
○ Franchise Fees and Royalty Income- $513,222
○ Rental Income- $100,422
○ Sales of Ice Cream and other products- $115,252
○ Sales at company-operated restaurants- $28,340
34. Cost of Goods Sold
34Appendix
● Cost of ice cream and other products (pg 38):
○ $76,877 (2015), decreases 7.5%
○ $83,129 (2014), increases 4.9%
○ $79,278 (2013)
● Net margin on ice cream products increased for FY2015 to $38.4M
due to a decrease in commodity costs, increase in pricing, and
favorable foreign exchange rates (these factors more than offset the
decrease in sales volumes)
● Net margin on ice cream products increased slightly for FY 2014 to
$34.4M due to favorable Australia inventory write-offs, an increase in
sales volume, offset by an increase in commodity costs
35. Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
35Appendix
● Personnel costs always increasing (but not at a rate faster than revenue)
● Incentive-based compensation
● “Increase in costs incurred to support our consumer packaged goods”
○ K-Cup Pods. New to the market, costs of packaging
● Gift card business
● Third party product volume guarantee
● Legal/litigation issues, recorded in SGA
○ Bertico and other legal issues on the horizon.
○ Business in Canada. Not enough monetary aid.
36. Other Expenses
36Appendix
● The annual reports classifies operating costs and
expenses into 7 categories. Their total operating costs
and expenses (for example 2015: 451,051) minus the
first four categories (-54,611, -76,877, -29,900, -243,
796) leaves us with our analysis numbers (approx
31,000). The last three categories: Depreciation,
Amortization of other intangible assets, and long-lived
asset impairments charges, therefore make up other
operating costs.
37. ● Nearly 100% franchised
● 20 year agreement, often renewable
● $25,000-$100,000 agreement
● Approximately 5.9% royalties, plus 5% of gross sales go to advertising
● Franchises fund most of new restaurant development
37
Franchise Logistics
38. ● Site must be approved (location, traffic patterns), meet training requirements
(in-house training for franchise managers)
● Abroad, the franchise agreements cover a geographic area
● Evaluate franchisees based on experience, financial background
38
Franchise Logistics, continued
39. Five-Part Plan
39Appendix
● Focus on Coffee leadership, espresso based drinks
● Improving innovation process to successfully, quickly bring new
products to market
● Targeted value and smart pricing, including promotions
● Mobile ordering and delivery tests
● Improve traditional service
40. Advertising Logistics
40Appendix
● 5% of gross sales committed to advertising fund
● Contributions almost exclusively from franchisees, but fund is
controlled by Dunkin’
● “Includes all expenses related to marketing, research and
development, innovation, advertising and promotion, including
market research, production, advertising costs, public relations,
and sales promotions” (2015 annual report, page 4)
● Less than 20% of fund is used for administrative costs
41. Advertising Logistics, continued
41Appendix
● Local advertising sponsored by franchisees must be
approved by Dunkin’, and is occasionally reimbursed
● Goals: Brand differentiation, increase sales
● DD Perks Rewards program-4.3 million members
● Popular Dunkin’ Mobile App makes it easy to order on the
go, caters to Dunkin’s quick-service model
42. Research and Development
42Appendix
● Included in advertising budget
● Lab located in Canton, MA
● Includes sensory lab, test kitchen, quality assurance lab
● Projects driven by consumer research, led by culinary team
44. Supply Chain Structure, continued
44Appendix
● Dunkin’ Brands does not supply goods to franchisees, with the
exception of domestic ice cream via a contract with Dean Foods
● Principal suppliers include The Coca-Cola Company, New England Tea
and Coffee Co., S&D Coffee, Inc., Silver Pail Dairy, LTD, Continental
Mills, and Pennant Ingredients Inc.
● Dunkin’ Brands monitors and approves suppliers for franchises
● 12 suppliers provide approximately half of Dunkin’s goods
● Contingency plans help Dunkin’ mitigate this risk
45. Supply Chain Structure, continued
45Appendix
● CMLs are franchise-owned production centers of baked
goods
● Dunkin’ has a long term agreement with the NDCP is a
franchise-owned distribution center
● NDCP maintains contingency plans with its approved
suppliers
● Some franchises bake donuts on site
46. Debt Financing
46Appendix
● Class A-2-I 1/26/2015: 7.5 million principal/month. 3.262%
interest. 750 million total. Due 2/2019
● Class A-2-II 1/26/2015: 17.5 million principal/month. 3.980%
interest. 1.75 Billion Due 2/2022
● No principal amortization due if leverage ratio is above 5:1.
Rapid amortization if loans not paid by anticipated due dates
● Variable fund notes:repaid on or prior to 2/2020. Libor plus
2.25%, 26.3 million of letters of credit outstanding against
variable fund notes
47. Debt Financing, continued
47Appendix
Year Class A-2-I Class A-2-II Total
2016 7,500 17,500 25,000
2017 7,500 17,500 25,000
2018 7,500 17,500 25,000
2019 721,875 17,500 739,375
2020 X 17,500 17,500
Source: DNKN 2015 10-K
48. Debt Financing, continued
48Appendix
● Average cost of debt 3.67%
● If DNKN issues new debt when interest rates are higher, its debt
payments will increase
● Debt payments divert cashflows, and higher debt increases WACC,
which lowers value
● If there are not enough cashflows to pay debts, the firm will have to
refinance indebtedness, sell assets, or delay capital expenditures
● Presents a risk of default, which would result in seizure of the
company’s resources
49. Advisory Boards
49Appendix
● Advisory boards allow franchise managers to relay information,
problems, and concerns to corporate
● These boards communicate and maintain relationships with
franchises
● District, regional and national level
● Limits legal issues down the road by working with managers (avoid
another Bertico situation)
74. 14 year amortizable franchise rights (and related tax liabilities), and nonamortizable goodwill
Limited trading volume
Lack of market reaction to underperforming stock
Inability to recover the carrying amount
74Appendix
Japan Joint Venture (with B-R 31 Ice Cream Co., Ltd.)
● DNKN owns 43.3% of the Venture, Partner owns 43.3%, and Japanese
shareholders hold 13.4%
● Acquired by three PE firms on 03/01/2006. Known as the BCT Acquisition
● As a result, B-R 31 recorded a step-up in basis
● In Q4 2014, annual impairment test on indefinite-lived intangible assets
found that carrying value exceeded fair value by $54.3M, to a new carrying
value of $8.7M
75. South Korea Joint Venture (with BR-Korea Co., Ltd.)
75Appendix
Due to a deficit of cost relative to the underlying equity in net assets of BR-Korea
Accounted as an impairment of long-lived assets in 2011, and carries amortization through 2016:
2012: $710,000
2013: $634,000
2014: $553,000
2015: $467,000
2016: $375,000
● DNKN owns 33.3% and Korean shareholders own 66.7% of the
Venture
● In 2011, BR-Korea was handed down a $19.8M impairment
charge to equity method investments, reducing carrying value to
$60.8M
76. Other Ventures
76Appendix
DNKN owns 33.3%, Coffee Alliance owns 33.3%, and shareholders own 33.3%
Very stable, incurred impairment charge of $873,000 in 2013, bringing carrying value down to
$1.36M
DNKN sold 80.0% of its franchising business to equity investors in 2013, producing a gain of
$6.3M
Currently retains 20.0% ownership in the Joint Venture, carrying value of $216,000
Very stable, low growth venture
● Spain (with Coffee Alliance, S.L.)
● Australia (with Palm Oasis Pty. Ltd.)
77. Leadership
77Appendix
● Nigel Travis,CEO, Chairman of the Board
● CEO since 2009, Chairman of the Board since 2013
● From 2005-2008, CEO of Papa Johns
● Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration from
Middlesex University in England
● Srinivas Kumar, President
● Has held various roles within Dunkin’, including Vice
President International, Interim COO, and Vice President of
Europe and the Middle East
● He previously worked for the master licensee for Baskin
Robbins
78. Leadership, continued
78Appendix
● John H. Costello
● President of Dunkin’ Brands from 2009 to 2016
● Innovative multichannel marketing
● 2013 store redesign included new furniture and lighting
● Expanded product line, followed consumer preferences
79. Complete List of Dunkin’ Donuts Products
79Appendix
● Espresso based drinks (hot and iced)
○ Lattes
○ Cappuccinos
○ Macchiatos
○ Espresso
● Drip coffee (hot or iced)
● Cold brew coffee
● Tea (hot or iced)
○ Regular tea
○ Green tea
○ Sweet tea
● Hot chocolate
○ Mint
○ Caramel
○ S’mores
● Coolatas
○ Various coffee and fruit-based flavors
● Breakfast sandwiches
● Bakery sandwiches (Tuna salad;Chicken
salad; Chicken wrap; Steak wrap; Ham &
cheese; Chicken bacon; Texas toast grilled
cheese; Turkey, cheddar, bacon
● Bagels
● Cookies
● Danishes
● Donuts
● Muffins
● Munchkins
● Hashbrowns
● Other bakery favorites (apple fritter, biscuit,
brownie, coffee cake, english muffin,
croissant, pretzel twist
● Oatmeal
81. Mobile App and Functions
81Appendix
Source: DD Mobile App
Scan and pay
Access DD Perks
Find Store Locations
Menu
Online Ordering
(encouraged by giving
double the points)
82. 82
Mobile App and Functions, continued
82Appendix
Source: DD Mobile App
84. 8484Appendix
DD Smart
Foods and Beverages with the DDSMART® logo are:
Reduced in calories, fat, saturated fat, sugar or sodium by at least 25% compared to a base
product or other appropriate reference product
and/or
Contain an ingredient or nutrient that is nutritionally beneficial.
Source: DNKN Website
85. Dunkin’ Donuts SWOT
85Appendix
Strengths
● Price/Quality value customers trust
● Internationally recognized and trusted
● Innovative and responsive to
consumer and market trends
Weaknesses
● Franchising model leaves gives up a
small portion of control over operating
units
● Consumer preferences towards
healthier food/snack product
Opportunities
● Growing breakfast/snack
compliments for coffee
● {Something about BR}
Threats
● Variety of coffee substitutes and
competitors (smaller cafes)
● Higher input costs (milk rising)
86. Baskin Robbins SWOT
86Appendix
Strengths
● Extensive flavor varieties
Weaknesses
● Lack of healthy alternatives
● Comparably small number of
locations
Opportunities Threats
● Frozen Yogurt popularity
● High degree of competition
88. McDonalds SWOT
88Appendix
Strengths
● Internationally established brand
● Low prices
● Number of locations
Weaknesses
● High fat and sodium content
● Consumer trends toward healthier
and lower calorie foods diverges from
core offerings
Opportunities
● Growing coffee market segment with
McCafé
● Increasing international presence
Threats
● Large variety of consumer choices
and alternatives to products
● Increasing minimum wages
92. Perceptual Map Prices
92Appendix
Store Price of Small Coffee Price of Small Icecream Price of Glazed Donut
Dunkin’ Donuts 1.99 0.99
Baskin Robbins 2.79
Starbucks 1.85
McDonald’s 1.00
Dairy Queen 1.99
Coldstone 5.00
Carvel 3.48
Krispy Kreme 1.57 0.66
Tim Hortons 1.59 0.99
93. Additional promotions
93Appendix
31 Promotion: $1.31 cone every 31st of the month
highlighting their 31 flavors
Pink Day promotion where you can purchase two
cones for the price of one on specialized day
94. 9494
22.3 M
likes
1.2 M
followers
1 M
followers
4.3 M
members
Facebook DD AppTwitterInstagram
Source: DNKN Newsletters
Appendix
Social Media
Jigar
Demonstrated flexibility in their approach to attract and maintain consumers in unique segment of the market
Implementation of technology to expand on the scope of interactions with consumers
maximize/optimize scope of their efforts
Responsive to changes in
while maintaining (robust)
Jigar
Business model allows for focus on innovation and consumer focus
Commitment to maintaining strategic market placement and adjusting to shifts in consumer and market trends
Alex
Under system, include trademarks and strategy
Select franchisees based on experience, financial background\
Sign 20-year licensing agreement, usually between $25,000-$100,000
5-6% of sales paid to Dunkin’ in royalties
5% sales paid to Dunkin’ for company-controlled advertising fund
Corporation focuses on innovation and marketing
Revenue
Cover Labor/Supply Cost
Alex
Under system, include trademarks and strategy
Select franchisees based on experience, financial background\
Sign 20-year licensing agreement, usually between $25,000-$100,000
5-6% of sales paid to Dunkin’ in royalties
This is where the bulk of DNKN’s revenue comes from (63.29%)
Followed distantly by sales of ice cream products (14.21%) and rental income (12.38%)
5% sales paid to Dunkin’ for company-controlled advertising fund
Alex
International franchising
CMLs, NDCP
The franchise model that Dunkin Brands operate under allows management to focus on following consumer and market behavior and they have been extremely responsive to the trends they observe.
Now we’re going to look into examples of just how they have been successful in adapting their operations
Dunkin Brands occupy a unique market segment
What we’re looking at here is a perceptual map illustrating the placement of dunkin’ brands in relation to many of the key competitors.
Their positioning strategy is appealing to consumers who look for reasonable prices and trusted quality.
This positioning aims to occupy the market in between high and low end of the fast food market place and they see this as a tremendous opportunity in the fact that Dunkin brands are accessible to all demographics and income levels.
The brands’ ability to adapt and respond to shifting consumer preferences has allowed them to maintain this positioning.
Between high and low end of consumer marketplace--makes us accessible to all demographics and income levels
Working with franchisees to make smarter decisions around pricing;
Price to value ratio is important to consumers
Implement various pricing strategies
Segmentation:
Dunkin Donuts appeals to working-class american; on the go; “America runs on Dunkin”
Value oriented, no frills
Reasonable pricing
Historically, Northeastern U.S.
Baskin Robbins
Innovative flavors/variety/hard and soft
Under 18 (families follow)
Average American
Affordability, trusted/recognized
Malls, high foot trafficking areas
tries to operate in between the high and low end of the fast food marketplace. Although a difficult place to operate, this position offers tremendous opportunity as a brand accessible to all demographics and income levels.
67% of dunkin revenue is from coffee
-Following a disappointing same store sales growth in 2015 (which will is going to talk a little bit more about later), Dunkin has developed a strategic plan using promotions and advertising to reverse this trend.
-These promotions and marketing techniques have been successful in driving sales revenue and increasing traffic.
-60% of Baskin Robbins ice cream revenue occurs during promotional periods. They have experienced a 6.1% comparable store sales growth increase, a 5% increase in cake sales, and opened 19 more Baskin Robbins locations because of their strategic promotions and advertising
-over last 10 years Dunkin has invested 2.5 billion on advertising to increase brand awareness and restaurant performance across both brands
-Dunkin Donuts Mobile App
Scan and pay
Access DD Perks
Find Store Locations
Menu
Online Ordering (encouraged by giving double the points)
DD Perks® Rewards
4.3 million members
Earn 5 points for every dollar spent when you pay with DD Card
Free medium beverage for every 200 points
Members only offers can be found on the app
Going to pass it off to amanda who’s going to continue to to discuss further tactics that have helped address their declining sales growth
Promotions
Rewards (app perks)
Technological innovation
Dunkin Donuts demonstrates flexibility in their approach to attract new customers
They adopt effective marketing techniques that boost sales and increase per customer spending through promotions and different product releases
Promotions include
Dunkin Donuts:
free donut on national donut day with the purchase of coffee
Baskin Robbins: several promotions have had positive effects on revenue
Cake sales increased 5% from 2014 to 2015 as a result
Also experienced a 6.1 comparable stores sales growth
Also opened 19 more Baskin Robbins locations
60% of their ice cream is sold during promotional periods
Increase in traffic
They also offer seasonal products that appeal to consumer preferences
This generates enthusiasm for anticipated items such as the annual christmas, fall, valentine’s day donuts and drinks.
This highlights how the company takes advantage of the seasonal shifts in demand and are flexible about adjusting their products to meet new demands.
Committed to adapting business and marketing tactics to encourage customer loyalty by serving customers better than competition and upholding their commitment balancing price and value; take many steps to reward customers and foster brand commitment and loyalty
Connecting to consumer to foster tradition and loyalty
Free to join
Free 2.5 oz. scoop on birthday and $3.00 off an ice cream cake
Also access other promotion and sneak peeks at new flavors, making consumers feel more involved and active in their experience
Cake sales increased 5% from 2014 to 2015
6.1% comparable stores sales growth
19 new Baskin Robbins opened in 2015
60% of ice cream sold during promotional periods
Also have Pink Day promotion when you get two cones for the price of one if you wear anything pink on selected days
31 Promotion: $1.31 cone every 31st of the month highlighting their 31 flavors
Dunkin offers free donut with purchase of any coffee to celebrate free donut day
Promoting
While starbucks just announced they will be raising coffee prices .30, Dunkin is committed to the price/quality balance their consumers trust them for delivering
SEASONAL
Adapting menu items to seasons/holidays (Valentines Day, Christmas, Fall)
Currently Lemon Croissant Donut and Key Lime Square
Baskin Robbins makes cakes for many occasions including Winter holidays, easter, Mother’s day, father’s day, graduations, etc.
HEALTHY OPTIONS
Consumers have become increasingly health conscious and tend to avoid foods that are high in fat and salt content more than ever before. Dunkin has reacted to this changing demand by increasing healthier options like fruit smoothies, oatmeal and egg-white sandwiches.
They have also introduced DD smart logo that appears in their store and online menus to highlight healthier choices
Foods and Beverages with the DDSMART® logo are:
Reduced in calories, fat, saturated fat, sugar or sodium by at least 25% compared to a base product or other appropriate reference product
Contain an ingredient or nutrient that is nutritionally beneficial
VARIETY OF POPULAR ITEMS
67% of Dunkin Donut’s sales come from coffee
Over the past five years, higher-priced forms of coffee, such as espresso, siphoned and filtered coffee beverages, have grown as a share of the coffee segment.
Dunkin responded to this change, making espresso based beverages were one of their fastest growing offerings in 2015 introducing machiato line of products in addition to continuing to offer other espresso-based favorites like lattes and cappuccinos
Cold Brew introduction to directly compete with Starbucks
Increasing popular products
Addition of new ones with changing market preferences and landscape
Committed to adapting business and marketing tactics to encourage customer loyalty by serving customers better than competition and upholding their commitment balancing price and value; take many steps to reward customers and foster brand commitment and loyalty
ALL DAY AND CUSTOM ITEMS
They offer all day menu items, Also all customizable to fit each individual consumer in commitment to satisfaction
In response to McDonald's (who they are trying to compete more closely with for breakfast) recent decision to offer all day menu items, DD announced in feb 2016 that they were offering all day options, the vice president of global consumer engagement announced that breakfast foods is an areas that they want to continue to grow in and they unveiled new menu boards in february that will strategically highlight drink and food options “contemporary, brighter, easier-to-read menu with attractive fonts, imagery and video content, to create an overall warmer, more modern design” to make it easier for customers to personalize orders and have eliminated the combo deals.
Consistent sales growth has been due in part to increase in per consumer spending (evidence that these tactics are working in increasing loyalty and per consumer spending) mainly attributed to premium priced cold beverages and differentiated breakfast sandwiches
K-cup focus
Illustrates the breakdown of coffee drinking market
Depicts how the majority of coffee drinkers (70%) drink at home
Dunkin recognizes this/commitment to adapting to customer tastes and desires
Dunkin launches k-cup to target different consumers/keep up with changing market demands
Closely researching and following habits of consumers
Positive effects on revenue:
sold 150 million K-cup pods sold in 2015
Dunkin Original Blend (although new) was #1 sold K-cup in December 2015 and the brand accounted for 6 of the top 45 K-cups sold through early 2016
Sold 360 million more cups of coffee in in 2015 than 2014 due to launch of Dunkin’ K-cups
Now that we’ve looked at the Franchise Model and Core Adaptability of Dunkin Brands as they relate to the overall value, we’ll now analyze the company’s growth, which has been historically steady and projects to continue increasing.
Here are the four the key drivers of DD Revenue Growth
The 2 most important means or revenue generation are 1) Dunkin Donuts Same Store Sales, which is change in revenue of existing outlets from year to year and 2) Dunkin Donuts US store expansion.
These are the two most significant revenue drivers because Dunkin Donuts US accounts for about 70% of Dunkin Brands revenue, as Alex mentioned earlier in the presentation.
International growth across both brands and Baskin Robins growth across both brands
Dunkin’s plan for growth consists of a 6% growth in stores annually and a 2-4% growth in U.S. comparable store sales over the next five years
In terms of overall growth of Duncan Brands, there are four major means through which Duncan can generate more revenue
As Amanda and Victoria alluded to earlier, Dunkin Brands has implemented a 5-step strategy to try to curtail this risk. But as the graph shows, this downtrend is fairly notable. Since this is such a major source of Dunkin Brands revenue, it could significantly damage future growth.
The strategy they are employing is aimed to increase traffic at DD US, therefore increasing revenue.
With that said, Dunkin Donuts projects a growth rate of between 0 and 2% in 2016
Im gonna pass the baton to David who will talk about the other prospects for Dukin revenue growth
Same Stores Sales: A measure in the revenue generated in existing outlets as compared to the previous year
decline in traffic.
If this trend continues, it could be problematic
Im gonna pass the baton to David who will talk about the other prospects for Dukin revenue growth
Amanda and Victoria talked about the disappointing SSG in DD US over the past few years. This graph illustrates this declining growth. The downward trajectory is concerning for the brand considering that DD US accounts for around 70% of Dunkin Brands total revenue
This graph illustrates the declining growth rate of SSSG that Amanda and Victoria discussed earlier. he downward trajectory is concerning
In-restaurant K-Cup® sales had a negative impact on comparable store sales.
With that said, Duncan’s plan or same-store growth to be between 2 and 4 5 over the ne
DD US projects comparable store sales growth between 0-2% in 2016
2014, 2015 at least 78 weeks previously 54 weeks
Baskin Robins 6.1% growth 2015
growth rate of slightly above 5%
Plans to add between 430 and 460 DD US stores in 2016; continuing the path of over 5% unit store growth
Dunkin Donuts is largely concentrated on the East coast, but in recent years they have paid increasing attention to westward expansion; most notably by opening stores in California
DD long term expansion goals within the US plan for over 17,500 DD stores with as many as 1,000 of those in California alone
May 2016: DD expands to its 42nd state, with plans to develop 15 DD in Hawaii
Sees potential for over 30,000 Dunkin Brand stores worldwide; consisting of over 19,500 in the US
Plans to add 200 net Dunkin brands restaurants in 2016 in international markets
The International market comprises 10% of Dunkin Brands company value, and expanding into the international markets is key for the companies growth
The joint venture called Golden Cup plans to be operating a minimum of 1,459 Dunkin Donuts in China within the next 20 years. The joint venture required an initial investment of $300 Million MORE THAN 1,400 DUNKIN’ DONUTS RESTAURANTS TO BE DEVELOPED IN CHINA AS PART OF NEW JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN Master Franchisees Jollibee worldwide and RRJ Capital.--Currently there are approximately 17 Dunkin Donuts in China--The Franchisees plan to open over 1,400 Dunkin Donuts restaurants over the next 20 years, beginning with the first opening in Q4 2015
Europe: Opened 55 new Dunkin Donuts in Europe in 2015, and now has over 220 DD locations in Europe--Over the past year, the company has celebrated first restaurant openings in Denmark, Georgia, Iceland and Poland, marking the brand’s continued expansion into new European markets, while also opening additional locations in Austria, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Additionally, a master franchise agreement was signed in September to develop 30 Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants in Switzerland.
Latin America: DD is currently expanding aggressively in Mexico beginning in January of 2015, with plans to open up over 100 Dunkin Donuts in Mexico. DD is currently seeking a master franchisee to bring a preliminary 50 Dunkin Donuts to Puerto Rico
South Africa: Master franchise agreement with Grand Parade Investments calls for the development of more than 250 Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants and more than 70 Baskin-Robbins shops in South Africa over the coming years
Jigar
Jigar
QSR- Compete with products from other QSRs, local restaurants, supermarkets, and retailers. Other factors include number and location of restaurants, quality and speed of service, advertising, marketing and price. Compete for franchisees, and cannot guarantee their retention.
Sub-Franchisees- controlled by master franchisees. Constitute another level of removal from DNKN. Master Franchisees are responsible for enforcing company standards
T&P- Includes delivery methods, change in product mix
Econ- changes impacting discretionary spending could impact Dunkin
Property- DNKN Brands have a lot of value, but all trademarks are not registered in all countries. Unauthorized use could diminish Dunkin’s business opportunities. Employees could also violate contracts, share confidential information
Tech- FAST is the system by which U.S. and Canadian Franchisees report their weekly sales and pay their corresponding royalty fees and ad fund contributions. EFTPay is used to make payments against open, non-fee invoices. Could be comprimised by network failures, power outages, hacking, terrorists attacks, improper usage by employees
Supply chain- 12 suppliers provided half of all goods to DNKN. This promotes efficiency but increases vulnerability to shortages, etc. DUnkin develops its own contingency plans and requires lone suppliers of inputs to have contingency plans as well
Int’l- Changes in exchange rates, hyper inflation or deflation, tax laws, tariffs and regulation, anti-american sentimiment, instability, natural disasters and terrorist threats
legal-Franchisees can sue for alleged breaches of contract or wrongful termination. Illness, injury suits from customers. Also employee suits, ranging from harassment, wrongful termination, discrimination.
Lawsuits against a franchisee can include claims against DNKN by virtue of their relationship with the defendant. Not only can this divert royalty income, but DNKN can be sued. Bertico- Canadian franchises felt they weren’t given enough oversight
Compliance with regulations.
The way of reaching the consumer has evolved, but their commitment to the consumer experience remains constant
TRANSITION: similar to how Dunkin changes menu offerings to fit consumer needs, they also are receptive to changes in advertising landscape and have since expanded the way they appeal to and interact with consumers
Social media presence
Instagrams combined have 1,241,000 followers
The Dunkin Donuts and Baskin Robbins pages have 22,346,294 collective “likes” on Facebook
Twitter has over 1 million followers
Snapchat geofilters on national donut day with brand logo; also for seasonal promotions, valentine’s day, and other occasions
Snapchat account consumers can follow; using social media advertising and promotional techniques to appeal to younger consumers and their shift away from traditional advertising (TV, Radio, Billboards)
Hashtags (#MyDunkin, #keepon, #DDPerksLove) allows consumers to promote their products and share their experiences with friends, more interactive role, generates loyalty and personal connection to company
Encourage interaction with the brand
Snapchat geofilters
#MyDunkin, Share your story
Instagram will repost photos they are tagged in
Makes for increased exposure and interaction
Dunkin Donuts Mobile App
Scan and pay
Access DD Perks
Find Store Locations
Menu
Online Ordering (encouraged by giving double the points)
DD Perks® Rewards
4.3 million members
Earn 5 points for every dollar spent when you pay with DD Card
Free medium beverage for every 200 points
Members only offers can be found on the app