Presented by Natasha Hill & Amaad Qureshi In this session, we will be covering the techniques of estimating Epics, Features and User Stories on an Agile project and then of creating iteration and release plans from these artefacts. Agenda 1. Why traditional estimation approaches fail 2. What makes a good Agile Estimating and Planning approach. 3. Story points vs. Ideal Days 4. Estimating product backlog items with Planning Poker 5. Iteration planning - looking ahead and estimating no more than a few week ahead. 6. Release planning - creating a longer term plan, typically looking ahead, 3-6 months 7. Q&A

1. Plans are nothing;
planning is everything.
Dwight D. Eisenhower

2. Introduction to Estimating and
Planning in Agile
Natasha Hill & Amaad Qureshi

3. About us
Natasha Hill
• Scrum Master
• Agile Coach
• Agile Enthusiast
• Organiser – Psychology of Agile
Scrum Meet-up Group
Amaad Qureshi
• Business Development Manager
• Certified ScrumMaster
• Certified Scrum Product Owner
• Organiser – Agile Connexions
Meet-up Group
• Co-organiser – Agile 101,
AppsJuction Meet-up Groups

4. Agenda
• Planning in Agile
• Story points vs ideal days
• Estimating techniques
• Velocity

5. What is Estimation in Agile?
Estimation in Agile is a method of measuring
how long it will take to complete a user story or
a task.

6. What is a Story Point?
Story point is a relative measure of effort.

7. How tall are these buildings?
Great Pyramid CN Tower The Shard
Giza Paris Toronto Kuala Lumpur London Dubai
139.5m 324m 828m
553m 452m
Eiffel Tower Petronas Towers Burj Khalifa
How tall are these buildings?
Relative vs absolute estimating
2
309m

8. Story Points
• Most popular in Agile
• Relative measures of effort
• Usually assigned using:
 Fibonacci ( 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ...)
 Modified Fibonacci ( 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ...)
 Powers of 2 ( 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, ...)
• Basic math properties apply
5+5=10=5+3+2

9. How long?

10. We can estimate in:
• Story points
• Ideal days (without any disruptions)
• Hours
• T-shirt sizes
• Beer sizes
• Custom sizes

11. We recommend estimating
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
In T-shirt sizes In Story Points In Hours
Less detail More detail

12. Product Backlog
Less detail
More detail
Rowan Bunning @2013

13. How do we estimate?
Planning Poker®- an iterative approach to estimating
Steps:
• Each estimator has a deck of cards with estimates on them
• A story is read and discussed briefly
• Each estimator selects a card that’s his or her estimate
• Cards are turned over so all can see them
• Discuss differences
• Re-estimate if necessary
• Each card deck has: too large, break and ‘?’

14. Example
?

15. Planning poker®

16. Challenge: estimate the size of the animals
in a zoo in story points
• Lion
• Kangaroo
• Rhinoceros
• Bear
• Giraffe
• Gorilla
• Hippopotamus
• Tiger

17. Other estimation techniques
• Gut feeling
• Triangulation
• Relative estimation
• Disaggregation
• Three, two, one...
4
2
Large = 3
1
2
3
1
2
= 12
2

18. When do we estimate?
Release
planning
Iteration
or sprint
Daily Planning
Refinement
Iteration Planning

19. Velocity
• Units of work per iteration
• Can be planned and observed
• Takes a few iterations to stabilise
• Should not be used to measure
progress or to compare teams
Iteration
1
1 3
1
3
1
2
Iterations
Velocity is
measured in the
units you use to
estimate your
user stories

20. Iteration planning
or iteration

21. Challenge: plan each iteration
1. Lion 20
2. Kangaroo 13
3. Rhinoceros 30
4. Koala Bear 5
5. Giraffe 40
6. Gorilla 20
7. Hippopotamus 30
8. Tiger 20
Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3
Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6
Priority Story points

22. Capacity
Capacity = Number of people in the project
x
hours on the project
i.e. take away:
holidays,
meetings,
client’s issues,
etc.

23. Iteration planning
• Whole team
• Look at historic velocity
• Calculate capacity
• Pick story by story, discuss
• Commit to the right amount of work
Iteration Units of
work
1 13
2 15
3 14
4 16
5 0
6 30
7 16
8 15
9 6
10 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The more you estimate, the more accurate you will get!
velocity
velocityiterations
iterations

24. Retrospective

25. Free Resources
• Trello.com – Free organizing tool, great for backlogs and story boards
• Planning Poker.com
• Pointingpoker.com
• Mountaingoatsoftware.com
• Romanpichler.com

26. Credits
• Images: © Mike Cohn, 2015
• Mountaingoatsoftware.com
• Book:

27. QA
Natasha_hill@hotmail.com
Amaad@learningconnexions.com