1- Horizon Scanning approaches and links to EEA's FLIS (Forward Looking Information and Services) and Global Megatrends 2 - Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario Building Process

1. 1- Horizon Scanning approaches
and links to FLIS and Global
Megatrends
2 - Long-term Future of the
Portuguese Economy - a Scenario
Building Process
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

2. ?
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

3. Horizon Scanning approaches and
links to FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

4. The DPP
Horizon Scanning
Project
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

5. The DPP Horizon Scanning Project is a systematic
process of identification, categorization and analysis
of information, enabling monitoring and warning of
trends, potential paradigm shifts, disruptions and
emerging issues.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

6. The project aims to be useful for different objectives,
applications and users, encouraging them to better
anticipate and understand the external environment
and how it interacts with and influences their policies
and strategic decisions.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

7. The overall objective of the DPP Horizon Scanning
project is to improve DPP’s ability to participate and
lead processes based on anticipation and preparation
for new challenges, risks and opportunities.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

8. The project seeks to achieve a set of more specific
objectives:
• Monitoring of critical issues
• Reporting on emerging issues
• Conducting Benchmarking activities
• Analysis of opportunities and risks for new
activities/industries and/or regions
• Technology monitoring and foresight
• Foster creativity and capitalize on new ideas
• Accelerate organizational learning and agility
• Foster networking (national and international)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

9. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

10. Project Outputs
• Scanning Documents on trends, megatrends,
uncertainties, weak signals and wildcards (organized
according to project taxonomy)
• Scanning Database supported by Personal Brain
mind mapping software
• Production of inputs for the organisation of
Scenario´s workshops, Trend Analysis, Delphi’s,
among others
• Production of inputs for the elaboration of articles,
reports and working papers
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

11. DPP Scanning Docs
DPP Scanning Docs are a continuously updated set of
documents which organize, categorize and analyze
drivers of change (megatrends, trends, uncertainties,
weak signals and wild cards) according to a specific
taxonomy (Economy, Industries, Politics, Geopolitics,
Environment, Territory, Energy, Business, Society,
Health and Technology).
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

12. DPP Scanning Doc Template
1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card
2. Date: document elaboration date
3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy
4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change
5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change
6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping
7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high,
high, medium, low, very low)
8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the
impact of the driver of change
9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of
occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of
occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)
10. Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may
influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified
11. Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts
(Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)
12. Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very
high, high, medium, low, very low)
13. Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link.
Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

13. DPP Scanning Database
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

14. DPP Scanning DB
DPP Scanning DB is a continuously updated dynamic
database, supported by specific software for viewing
and organizing information.
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/Paginas/Scanning-DB.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

15. FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

16. Global Megatrend
Increasing global divergence in
population trends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

17. State of Art
A Growing population with divergent paths
Asians still dominate the world’s population;
Africans keep growing and Europeans are Latin America and North America
Caribbean Oceania
clearly in a reduction model Africa
Europe
Asia
Stabilization
Growth
60% of Europe’s population
Different evolutions: If African’s fertility growth depends on
UK and France
would surpass
rates keep current rhythm, Africa will migration flows (2010), Germany’s
have 3 billion INTERNACIONAISin E2050 and 15
E RELAÇÕES people
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA PLANEAMENTO
indicating a natural
population in
2050
billion in 2100
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
population contraction
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

18. State of Art
A Growing population with divergent paths
Young people represent the largest percentage of population in emergent and
developing countries, but there are different political and social realities, namely
in matter of gender.

19. trend
“AsiaTown”
trend
“Moving East”
trend
Demographic
divergence
trend
Medium-size
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO cities
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

20. Potential Implications
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

21. As emergent countries evolve largely supported by a youthful
society, with an ascending middle class and characterized by
unprecedented urban growth and influence, developed countries
go old and seek immigrants to assure competitiveness and
economic growth.
Migrations flows as a compensation factor for demographic aging
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

22. by 2050, we expect
about two-thirds of
the world’s people to
be living in cities.
Now the increase in
the number of city
dwellers, between
2000 and 2050 is
expected to be
about three billion
people, which was
the total population
of the Earth in 1960.

23. This demographic gap imposes a global
challenge to the planet:
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

24. The divergence in demographic trends is a major
factor in the evolution of five major drivers of
global development:
urbanization
mobility
energy
water
biodiversity
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

25. Drivers biodiversity
mobility urbanization
energy water
"In 1950, there were three times as many Europeans as
sub-Saharan Africans.
By 2100, there will be five sub-Saharan Africans for
every European”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
• (Joel Cohen, October 2011)
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

26. Divergence in population trends: impacts and uncertainties
uncertainty:
collaborative world?
• 75% of biological
biodiversity
species could disappear
biodiversity
in a 300 to 2000 years
Uncertainty:
• Indian population
mobility
• Today, 3,5 billion
Urbanization
impacts on
surpasses mobility
world urbanization
Chinese in 2020 geopolitics
people live in
• Africans surpass and migration cities; in 2050 they
Indians in 2040 flows? will be 6,3 billion
Uncertainty:
urban conflits?
• Impacts of
• Technological capacity
energy
water
urbanization in water
Uncertainty: deeply stressed uncertainty:
• Natural limits areas water
paradigm
energy
• Climate change scarcity and
• Societal change
change or effects conflicts?
(de)growth’
s model?

27. In the case of the urbanization process that has
accelerated in recent years, translated into the fact
that half the world’s population live in cities, the
future will maintain the trend of intensification of
urban areas, which poses an enormous challenge in
terms of reconciling people with more sustainable
management of resources, financial and natural
resources such as energy and water.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

28. The rise of the middle class and consumer power
in the cities of developing countries is an
opportunity for the growth of global activities,
especially services such as those associated with
ICT, particularly telecommunications as well as the
expanding market for activities that are going
through stagnation/contraction within the more
developed world, such as infrastructure
construction.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

29. Therefore, this divergence in demographic trends
contains a challenge for the future urban form, with the
eventual collapse of the megacity and the emergence
of a new wave of medium-sized cities which, taken
together, justify 40% of global growth in 2025
according to the McKinsey Report “Urban World:
Mapping the economic power of cities” (March, 2011).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

30. Vulnerabilities
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

31. The expansion of cities and the middle class in emerging
economies
The population of the developing countries represents 80%
of the world and, according to the latest UN estimates, 97%
of current population growth is justified by emerging
countries, where young people have significant weight (31%
versus 18% in developed countries).
In terms of purchasing power, there is a strong asymmetry
between emerging and developed countries, but the growth
of the middle class in emerging economies tends to be high -
two billion people could "win" the status by 2030, with
profound implications in consumption habits, use of
resources and political pressure.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

32. Increasing pressure on natural resources
Will the planet have a capacity for more than two billion people
by mid-century? Taking food production only, according to FAO,
it would have to increase 70% over current levels, yet the
ongoing technological investment may be insufficient to ensure
this objective. The scarcity of arable agricultural land is a risk,
particularly in emerging countries, where the process of
industrialization and urbanization affects more land for city
building. The scarcity of water resources, including drinking
water affects two billion people and consumption is expected to
increase by 50% until 2025 in developing countries, at a time
when over half the globe may have interruptions in water supply.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

33. Aging in developed countries
The trend towards an aging population seems irreversible,
and currently, more than 80 countries, representing 42% of
the world’s population, have a fertility level below the
natural replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). The trend
is most marked in Europe and Japan, which may lose half of
its population by 2100. The impacts - in terms of demand for
health care are foreseeable, increasing financial pressure on
social security systems and, therefore, questioning the
western social model, but at the same time creating
opportunities for activities related to geriatrics and senior
tourism.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

34. Drivers and Inhibitors
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

35. Drivers
• Industrialization, urbanization and motorization in emerging
countries
• Scarcity of natural resources
• Energy and Food Insecurity
• Expansion of middle class in emergent economies;
• Aging population in developed countries
• Continuing crisis in western countries
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

36. Inhibitors
• Change in energy paradigm;
• Rise of emerging countries in value chains relating to
technology activities;
• Technology transfer from developed to emerging /
less developed countries;
• Migration flows
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

37. Main Actors/Stakehoders
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

38. We can distinguish three main groups:
• developing countries, with high rates of population growth;
• the middle-income countries, undergoing demographic stabilization but
more dynamic in domestic migration flows (from rural to urban areas; from
urban centers to the peripheries, and abroad), with risks of social exclusion
and unemployment;
• the high-income countries with an aging population, where the challenge is
the ability to integrate people.
The major Asian economies are key players in the world demographic trends. In
2025, more than 1.6 billion Asians will live in cities. China and South Asia
account for 90% of Asian population growth and 60% of the global urban
population growth between 2007 and 2025.
China and India are at the heart of this transformation - GDP per capita in
urban India is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9% (China, 10%).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

39. Implications for Portugal
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

40. Portugal is among the developed countries, a clear example of
aging, with the 2nd lowest fertility rate in the world (1.3 children)
for 2010-2015, along with Austria and Malta, and just behind
Bosnia-Herzegovina ( 1.1 children).
The Portuguese population is expected to start declining in 2014,
losing about 4 million inhabitants by 2100, taking into account
the "average" scenario of the United Nations; if the evolution is
is the least favorable, the loss of the resident population in
Portugal could reach 7 million people by the end of the century.
This trend has been offset precisely by immigration, considering
the last census held in 2011, especially in the coastal zone of the
capital and the Algarve region, but the majority of the territory
shows signs of shrinking population.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

41. Zoom Portugal
Natural and migration
contraction (-4,8;-1,7)
Natural contraction and positive Natural and migration positives
immigration (-2,3;7) (3,8;25)

42. Long-term Future of the
Portuguese Economy
Authors
Department of Foresight and Planning
a Scenario Building and International Affairs
António Alvarenga (coordination)
Process
Paulo Carvalho (coordination up to May
2011)
Ângela Lobo
Catarina Rogado
Fátima Azevedo
Miguel Déjean Guerra
Sofia Rodrigues
With the collaboration of:
Manuela Proença
Ana Maria Dias
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

43. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

44. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

45. » Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approaches
to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term low
carbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para a
Ciência e Tecnologia” (FCT).
» The project started in 2010 and is being developed together with “Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “Instituto
Superior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).
» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbon
reduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.
» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools are
being developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based on
Scenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, the
two hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities of
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,
production and family income as well as on economic well-being.
» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:
http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

46. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

47. Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy
Roadmap
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

48. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

49. DPP Horizon Scanning e Cenários
Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3088/Compilacao_Cenarios_Portugal.pdf
Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3089/Compilacao_Projectos_Internacionais.p
df
Colecção de Cenários Globais – Selecção e Análise de Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3214/Coleccao_Cenarios_Globais.pdf
DPP Scanning Docs
http://www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx

50. Workshop
Global Scenarios 2050
KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES
8th November 2010
Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian
Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território

51. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

52. • Context-specific approach
• Project, methodology (and even tool) design
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

53. Methods and Tools: more flexible, intuitive and
lighter Strategy and Management
• SWOT analysis
Foresight • Balanced Scorecard
• Scenario Planning/Thinking (intuitive-logics: SHELL, GBN, SRI, • Gap Analysis
• Core Competencies • Wind Tunneling
etc; Porter)
• Activity System • Implications and options
• Trend Analysis
• Business Idea • Finantial Analysis
• Environmental Scanning
• 5 Forces • Strategic Conversation
• Futures Wheels
• Strategic Groups • Strategic Choice Structuring
• Futures Accelerator©
• Value-chain • Real Options
• Visions Competition©
• End Game Analysis • Enterprise Value Map
• Incasting
• Key Strategic Factors • Strat Bridge
• Future Workshops (future conferences)
/ Internal Factors of Competitiveness
Actors
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Strategic Groups (workshop version; adaptation)
• Role Plays
Methods and Tools: more analitical and heavier
Innovation and Creativity
• Strategic Deep • Ideas Combat© • Scenario Planning (La Prospective, Mathematic/Probabilistic
Dives (IDEO) • Innovators Solution Modeling)
• Mind Mapping • Six Hats (de Bono) • Delphi
• Brainstorming • Po (de Bono) • Structural Analysis (MICMAC)
• Brainwriting • Mobility Vip Cards • Analysis of the “Actors’ Game” (MACTOR)
• Focus Groups • Idea Boxes • Morphological Analysis (MORPHOL)
•Storytelling • Random Word • Smic-Prob-Expert / Cross Impact Analysis (CIA)
• Trend Impact Analysis (TIA)
Competitive Intelligence • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
• Competitive Blindspots • Patent Analysis
• War Games
• Competitive Benchmarking & Tactical Analysis Alvarenga,
• Early Warning (Weak signals) Management Systems Carvalho, 2009
• Benchmarking Studies DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
DEPARTAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

54. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I
Workshop methodology: an
adaptation (of a section) of the
intuitive-logics scenario-building
approach

55. The future will result from the interaction
between Megatrends coming from the
past and shaping the future, Weak
Signals or issues at an embrionary stage
of development, Wildcards that might
surprise us in a positive or negative way,
and Structural Uncertainties that might
take us not just for one but for a plurality
of possible futures.

56. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Megatrends Weak Signals
KEY CONCEPTS
Uncertainties /
Wildcards
Key Uncertainties
Structures, systems Visions /
Scenarios
and heuristics “Intents”

58. Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
António Alvarenga
Catarina Rogado
Sofia Rodrigues
Miguel Guerra
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território

59. Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho
Ana Maria Fernandes António Manzoni
António de Melo Pires Manuela Proença
Ângela Lobo Miguel Duarte Pereira
Guta Moura Guedes Miguel Monjardino
Helena Cordeiro Natalino Martins
João Caraça Nuno Ribeiro da Silva
José Emílio Amaral Gomes Pedro Moreira
José Maria Brandão de Brito Roberto Carneiro
Luís Campos e Cunha Stephan Magnus
Luís Nazaré Vítor Bento
Jorge Marrão João Ferrão
Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn
Patríc ia Fortes

60. Choosing Key Uncertainties

61. 14 Key Uncertainties

62. Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the
Participants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop”
Disruptive Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental
Coexistence Religion Conflict
“Flat” Globalization “Mega-countries”
Western Ideas Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge"
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

63. Scenario
Structures

64. 3 Scenario Matrixes
(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

66. Workshops
Long-term socio-economic
Scenarios for Portugal
27th April and 4th May 2011
Casa do Ambiente e do Cidadão, Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território

67. Scenarios for Portugal 2050 Workshop
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

68. Timeline

69. The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was
also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global”
(Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation
and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

70. What might define the future?
What will remain?
Structural limitations?
What can project Portugal?

71. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Megatrends Weak Signals
KEY CONCEPTS
Uncertainties /
Wildcards
Key Uncertainties
Structures, systems Visions /
Scenarios
and heuristics “Intents”

72. 10 Uncertainties
(in depthscanning2 » “inputs
for discussion”)

73. 1 2 3 4
Evolução do Perfil de Posição e Função de Preferências e Apostas ao Conectividade
Especialização da Economia Portugal no Sistema nível dos Relacionamentos (Física e Digital)
Portuguesa Internacional de Transportes Geoeconómicos por parte de Portugal na
e Logística dos Poderes Públicos e Economia Global
(Padrão de Actividades Investidores Portugueses
Exportadoras)
5 6
Padrão de Urbanização
e Organização do Território
PORTUGAL 2050 Evolução das Soluções/
Plataformas Energéticas e
INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS de Mobilidade
7 8 9 10
Evolução do Modelo de Tipologia e Papel das Intensidade, Impactos Evolução dos Sistemas de
Coesão Social Português Cidades e Gestão do(s) Ensino e Formação em
no Desenvolvimento do País Envelhecimento(s) da Portugal
(Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e População em Portugal
Formação; Protecção Social; (Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia,
Saúde) (Ligação com Sistemas de …)
Pensões e de Saúde)

74. 10 Uncertainties
(co-built » shared)

75. Working with Uncertainties and
Configurations

76. 1 2 3 4
Evolution of the Structure and Financial Sustainability of the Political System Model Institutional Capacity Building of
Specialisation of the Portuguese Portuguese Economy the Portuguese Economy and
Economy Society
• Exporting activities and internationalisation • External imbalances • Evolution of democracy
• Position in the value chains of goods and • National debt + private debt • Attractiveness of other solutions • Evolution and credibility of the institutions
services traded internationally • Ability and promptness in solving financial • Social capital
• Insertion in the international division of imbalances
labour.
6
5 Strategic Leadership and Pro-
Cultural Values and Ability to
Generate Social Capital
PORTUGAL 2050 activity of the Economic Agents
• Cultural changes
POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES • Political System
• Alignment and mobilisation of the players
• Confidence • Strategic vision and quality of governance
• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit
• Capacity of innovation and societal change
(Workshop 2)
7 8 9 10
Evolution of the Portuguese social Typology and Role of the Cities in Generational Uncertainty - how is Evolution of the Education and
cohesion model Spatial Planning the next generation going to live? Training Systems in Portugal
• Territorial cohesion • Generational conflicts • Human capital
• Redistributive mechanisms • Dynamics of urbanisation • Generational cohesion and solidarity • Quality and efficiency of the systems
• Labour market • Networks of cities • Connection and harmony with the labour
• Education and Training market
• Social protection • Training throughout life
• Health

77. Focus on high added value products
Evolution of the
Structure and Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with
1 Specialisation of the low profit margins
Portuguese Economy
Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models
Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances -
“THE HOLE”
Financial
2 Sustainability of
Portugal
Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX”
Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

78. Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms
of representation)
Political System
3 Model and State
Configuration
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved
Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency
Institutional Capacity
Building of the
4 Portuguese Economy
Institutional degradation
and Society
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

79. Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business-
as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society
Cultural Values and
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital
5 Ability to Generate
Social Capital
(endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital,
imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Strategic Leadership
Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY
6 and Pro-activity of
the Economic Agents
ROAD”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

80. Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard
Evolution of the
7 Portuguese Social
Cohesion Model
Social model that can become reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city
Typology and Role of
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but
8 the Cities in Spatial
Planning
disaggregated from the rest of the territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnership
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

81. Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no
interaction
Generational
Uncertainty (how Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations;
9 the next generation generational conflict
is going to live)
Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Evolution of the
Education and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and
10 Training Systems in transmission of knowledge
Portugal
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

82. The next task was based, in methodological terms, on Morphological
Analysis. It departed from the Critical Uncertainties and respective
Configurations to the building of the Base Structures of “Portugal
Scenarios 2050”. A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined
Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised in
working groups, were asked to select combinations of configurations
of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain two distinct Scenario
Structures
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

83. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II
an adaptation of the
Morphological Analysis logic to
an workshop/participatory
context.

84. Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and economic Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or Autocratic, probably centralised
open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a
decentralised and/or decentralised
forms of representation) provider representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
as-Usual); low confidence levels in (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
the civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY public interest, stability trust –
keeping the erratic nature of the erratic nature of governance –
ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
governance – “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another country’s contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction) jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

85. Decline Affirmation
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised
Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a
and/or decentralised and/or decentralised
representation) provider representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust –
the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance –
“SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
“THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga

86. Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage”
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised
open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a
and/or decentralised and/or decentralised
forms of representation) provider forms of representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust –
the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance –
“SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
“THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga