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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: Airlines

             Submitted by:
   Arunachalam Ramanathan (B11010)
        SumedhaDutta (B11047)
AGENDA
•   Timeline - Airline Industry
•   Need Set
•   List of Operational Airlines
•   Macro Environmental Factors
•   Porter’s Five Forces
•   Growth in India
•   Segments in Indian Airline Industry
•   Capacity vs Demand
•   Cost Structure
•   Recent Events
•   Regulations
•   Critical Success Factors
•   Dynamics of Industry
•   Analysis of Players
     –   Jet Airways
     –   SpiceJet
     –   Kingfisher Airlines
•   Investment Requirement
•   Future Outlook
Timeline – Airline Industry
Year                                           Milestones
<1953     Nine Airlines existed including Indian Airlines & Air India

1953      Nationalization of all private airlines through Air Corporations Act;
1986      Private players permitted to operate as air taxi operators

1994      Air Corporation act repealed; Private players can operate schedule services

1995      Jet, Sahara, Modiluft, Damania, East West granted scheduled carrier status

1997      4 out of 6 operators shut down; Jet & Sahara continue

2001      Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices decontrolled
2003      Air Deccan starts operations as India’s first LCC

2005      Kingfisher, SpiceJet, Indigo, Go Air, Paramount start operations

2007      Industry consolidates; Jet acquired Sahara; Kingfisher acquired Air Deccan
Need Set
• Need to travel in an airline:
     – Primary Need: To meet another person/group (Communication)
     – Secondary Need: Transportation
     – Tertiary Need: Faster means to travel
COMPETITION:
Direct Competitors:
•   Railways
•   Bus
•   Cars


Generic Competitors:
•   Video Call Services
List of Operational Airlines
Status : Scheduled

          Airline                Call Sign      Commenced Operations

 Air India              AIRINDIA             October 1932(as Tata Airlines)

 Air India Express      EXPRESS INDIA        April 2005

 Air India Regional     ALLIED               1996(as Alliance Air)
 Air Kerala             —                    April 2013(Planned)
 GoAir                  GOAIR                June 2004
 IndiGo                 IFLY                 August 2006
 Kingfisher Airlines*   KINGFISHER           May 2005
 Jagson Airlines        JAGSON               November 1991
 Jet Airways            JET AIRWAYS          May 1993
 SpiceJet               SPICEJET             May 2005
List of Operational Airlines
 Status : Non-Scheduled
          Airline                  Call Sign       Commenced Operations

Air Mantra                MANTRA               July 2012
Air Odisha                —                    November 2012
Club One Air              —                    August 2005
Chhattisgarh Air Link     —                    2012

Deccan Charters           DECCAN               1997
Deccan Shuttles           DECCAN               2012
Invision Air              —                    March 2011
TajAir                    —                    November 1993 (as Megapode)

Ventura Airconnect        AIRCONNECT           July 2011
Macro Environmental Factors
     Airline Industry is highly dependent on the following factors:
       Factors                           Outcome                         Impact on Airlines
Increase in crude oil   Increases Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF)      • Increase in fares leads to low
prices                  prices (40% of the fare)                   demand
                                                                   • If fares are fixed, then it
                                                                   affects profits.
Implementation of       • New Entrants (Joint Ventures)            • Increases competition in LCC
FDI in Aviation         • Mergers with International players       segment
                        • Increases operational efficiency               • Price War
                                                                   • Reduces operating costs
Increase in fares of    • Middle Class segment will prefer         • Increases profits as airlines
AC and First Class      airlines as it takes less time to travel   will travel with full capacity
tickets in Railways
Recession:              • People will reduce their frequency of    • Decreases profits
Indian Airline          travel or will prefer low-priced                • Incurs huge expenses as
Industry Growth Rate    transportation mediums like Railways            the flights will be
= 1.8 times GDP         etc.                                            grounded
                                                                        • Low demand
Porter’s Five Forces
Threat of New Entrant
     Saturated Industry hence there is hardly any space for a
     newcomer
     High cost of entry
     High State Tax levied on Airline Transport Fuel (ATF)
     High cost of buying and leasing aircrafts, safety and security
     measures, customer service and manpower
     Strong existing player

Threat of Substitutes
     No perfect substitute for International carriers
     Domestic airlines can be substituted by Cars, Buses, Train and
     Video call services
Porter’s Five Forces
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    Airline supply is dominated by Boeing and Airbus
    Very less number of manufacturers of Boeing & Airbus
    Aviation fuel is a commodity

Bargaining Power of Buyers
     Large number of players competing for same set of
    customer
     Large number of players provides huge option for
    buyers
Porter’s Five Forces

Rivalry
     Many players
     Intense price competition
     High Fixed Cost
     Low Marginal Cost
     Homogeneous Product
      Excess Capacity
Porter’s Five Forces
             Bargaining
              Power of
              Supplier
                High




Threat of                 Threat of
              Rivalry     New Entry
Substitute
               High         High
  Low




             Bargaining
              Power of
               Buyer
                High
Growth in India
• Railway fares of AC tier and First class are similar to airline fares
    – Over 300 million strong middle class present in India
                                                                       Domestic
• FDI in Aviation                                                      Growth –
    – Reduces the debt burden                                           25.6%
    – Reduces operational costs due to availability of experts in the field of
      aviation
• Tourism in India
    – Increase in inbound and outbound tourists and medical tourism
• Disposable incomes expected to increase an average of 8.5% till 2015
• Airports Authority of India (AAI) announces new airports in Tier II and
  Tier III cities
    – Increases the demand for airline travel
    – Operational costs are very low and growth rates are high when
      compared to metro and Tier I cities
        • Higher profits
Segments in Indian Airline Industry
Classifications of Passengers for Airline
                Industry
• Type 1 – Time sensitive and insensitive to Price
    – Business Travellers, who might be willing to
    pay premium price for extra amenities
    – Travel flexibility and last minute seat
    availability extremely important
• Type 2 – Time sensitive and Price sensitive
    – Some Business Travellers, must make trip,
    but are flexible to secure reduced fare
    – Cannot book far enough in advance for
    lowest fares
• Type 3 – Price sensitive and insensitive to Time
    – Classic Leisure or vacation travellers, willing
    to change time and day of travel and airport
    to find seat at lowest possible fare
    – Willing to make connections
• Type 4 – Insensitive to both Time and Price
    – Few passengers who are willing to pay for
    high levels of service.
    – Can be combined with Type 1
Segments


                                                 Domestic
                             Low Cost Carrier
                                  (LCC)
                                                International
 Segments in
Indian Airline   Passenger
   Industry
                                                 Domestic
                              Full Service
                              Carrier (FSC)
                                                International
Segments – Low Cost Carrier
Low Cost Carrier:
• Air Deccan was the first LCC in 2003
• Spicejet, IndiGo, JetKonnect and GoAir entered later

LCC Model:
• Have a uniform fleet of aircraft to drive cost efficiencies
• Point-to-point system instead of a hub and spoke model to increase
   aircraft utilization rates
• Reduce costs by utilizing second tier airports
• Integrate online bookings and drive down their 
(POS) point of
   sales costs
• Have best in class customer service metrics
• Single class configuration – Higher number of seats in the aircraft
Segments – Full Service Carrier
Full Service Carrier:
• Jet Airways, Air India and Kingfisher Airlines (Not operational)

FSC Model:
• Multiple fleet
• Multiple class configuration
• In-flight services
    – Entertainment
    – Food & Drinks
Segments – Domestic Passengers
               Market Share – 2011
               606 lakh passengers

                                             Indigo
6.10%                18%     19.50%          Air India
                                       16%   Spicejet
               18.30%        14.40%          Jet Airways
7.60%
                                             Jet Lite      Decline in domestic passengers by 2.97%
                                             GoAir
                                                           • Increase in fares due to increase in ATF
                                                           prices
                                                           • Frequent cancellation of flights by Air
               Market Share – 2012                         India and Kingfisher
               588 lakh passengers
                        1%
          7%                                 Indigo
                      6%
                                 27%         Air India
        18%                                  Spicejet
                                             Jet Airways
                                      21%
               20%                           Jet Lite
                                             GoAir
                                             Kingfisher
Segments – Domestic Passengers
     Airline                      Activity                                  Reason
Kingfisher Airlines • DGCA Forced to stop its operations    • High debt
                    • Lost 109 lakh passengers              • Improper Revival plan

Air India          • Managed to gain 26.52 lakh             • Kingfisher’s inability to operate as a
                   passengers                               FSC
                                                            • Frequent cancellation of flights due
                                                            to pilot strike
IndiGo             • Increased its capacity by 30%          • Used its cash to increase its
                         • Entered international services   capacity as it was the only airline
                         • Each plane had 180 seats of      making profits
                         single class
                   • Gained 40.6 lakh passengers
SpiceJet           • Concentrated mainly in Tier II and     • Growth rate of Tier II and Tier III is
                   Tier III cities                          higher than metros
                   • Gained 30 lakh passengers
Jet Airways        • Increased its capacity slowly          • Had small planes of 70-80 seats of
                   • Lost 9 lakh passengers                 multiple classes
                                                            • Had huge debt and hence couldn’t
                                                            increase its capacity like IndiGo
Segmental Changes
Capacity Vs Demand




Fig: The graph shows Capacity vs. Demand chart for Domestic Airlines in India
CostStructure
   Parameters        Fare                           Parameters
                 contribution
Airline Fuel     40%            • Crude oil prices
                                • Rupee depreciation
                                • Block hours (Difference between the time the
                                door was closed (departure) and the time the door
                                was opened (arrival))
Maintenance &    12%            • Food and Cabin Expenses
Repair Cost                     • Crew accommodation, transportation and
                                allowances
                                • Landing and Navigation charges
Ownership Cost   13%            • Purchase price of airplane
                                • Insurance, Tie down or hangar fees, Subscription
                                fees
Other Expenses   30%            • Employee Remuneration and benefits
                                • Selling and Distribution costs
                                • Interest Expense – Interest paid for the loan taken
                                • Lease Rental
Recent Events
New Entry                           Mergers &                  Exits
                                   Acquisitions
                                                              Kingfisher Airlines has
 Air Mantra (2012) –                                            been forced to stop
 Operates between                                              its operations due to
     Amritsar and                      Etihad Airways in
                                     talks with Jet Airways          huge debt
      Chandigarh


Joint Venture
between Tata Group                  Tiger Airways in talks
and Air Asia                        with SpicJet
• Air Asia plans to invest $60      • To create a hub at
  mn                                  Hyderabad




                                     All Nippon Airways in
                                      talks with SpiceJet
                                           and GoAir
Regulations
•   DGCA’s enforcement of standardized block times:
     –   All airlines should fly within the average block time fixed by DGCA for all routes across the country
         and take action against carriers which "cheat“.
•   Information about Flights and Reservations
     – Each passenger shall be provided neutral and accurate information on the
        flight details and reservation status by the airline company
     – The airline or its designated travel agent must pass on to the passengers the
        following information in the form of a computer print-out:
           • The identity of the airline which will actually provide the service, as
             opposed to the airline mentioned on the ticket;
           • Changes of aircraft during the journey;
           • Stops en-route during the journey;
           • Transfer between the airports during the journey
Regulations
•   Cancellation of Flight
     – Airlines should inform the passengers of cancellations of their flights as far in
       advance as possible of the scheduled time of departure provided at the time
       of effecting his/her reservation
     – Passengers who have not been informed at least three hours in advance about
       the cancellation of the flight on which they were scheduled to travel,
         • Airlines shall provide compensation for the inconvenience caused
         • Airlines shall refund the ticket prices in the event they do not wish to
            travel instead on an alternate or subsequent flight of the carrier
            concerned or on another carrier’s flight
         • Airline shall provide customers with facilities at the airport in the event
            they have already reported for their original flight and whilst they are
            waiting for the alternate flight
Regulations
•   Denied Boarding
     – Airlines shall be liable to pay compensation to passengers who are denied boarding

•   Delays in Flight

•   The airlines shall provide facilities if the passenger has checked in on time, and if the airline
    expects a delay beyond its original announced scheduled time of departure or a revised time
    of departure of:
     – 2 hours or more in case of flights having a block time of up to 2 ½ hrs; or
     – 3 hours or more in case of flights having a block time of more than 2 ½ hrs and up to 5
         hours; or
     – 4 hours or more in case of flights not falling under above two

•   ICAO’s Policies on Charges for Airports and Air navigation Services
Regulations
•   DGCA’s minimum capital requirement policy:
     As per the rules issued by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA),
     – Applicants for scheduled airline permit must have a minimum paid-up capital
        of Rs50 crores and a fleet of five large aircraft, with a carrying capacity of over
        40,000 kg each to begin operations. These airlines companies will have to put
        in additional Rs20 crores equity for each additional aircraft beyond the
        minimum five required to start operations.
     – Airlines that plan to fly smaller planes should have a minimum fleet of five and
        a minimum equity of Rs20 crores. They should add Rs10 crores to its equity for
        each addition of small aircraft.

•   FAA rules : It limits the number of hourly takeoffs and landings—called “slot”
    controls
Critical Success Factors
•   Route System
     – Access to terminals in the airports that are visited the most
     – Customer demand of route vs maximum aircraft utilization
•   Revenue /Cost Control
     – Ability to handle transaction cost
          • Handling the high transaction cost due to uncertainties from the supply
             side by combining the operations under one corporate name :
             Internalisation
     – Having competitive and innovative pricing schemes to attract and maintain a
        customer base
     – Better fuel procurement process and price hedging during volatile periods
•   Service Product/Promotions
     – Aircraft seating space
     – Aircraft type
     – Class of service offering
     – Ease of booking
Critical Success Factors
•   People (Service Oriented Industry)
     – High-caliber staff
     – Training programs focusing on front-line communicative skills

•   Ability of the Carrier to benefit from economies of scale and economies of scope by
    operating the carriers in hub or base in the airport
     – Acts as a structural entry barrier to other players and new entrants
     – Reduction of sales and marketing costs, customer service facilities, and flight
        cancellation costs
     – Benefits from increase in size of the base:
           • Flexibility to switch slots
           • Flexibility to switch crew staff from one route to another
           • Flexibility to adjust the connections with the fluctuation in demand
     – Better negotiation power to get attractive time slots and other services from the
        airport
Critical Success Factors
•   Available Capacity
     – Number of aircrafts and the seating capacity in case of busy routes (where fixed cost is high)

•   Ability to diversify
     – Related Diversification:
            • Diversify into Air-freight industry
            • Diversify into Hospitality Industry
     – Joint Ventures:
            • JVs with Hotels, Shops in Airports, restaurants etc.
            • Ability to introduce more routes that are congestion free and less of bottlenecks

•   Investment in Technology
      – Helps in mitigating risks due to increase in capacity by opening new routes by competition
         and hence, to redeploy aircraft and secure gates and ground personnel immediately to react
         to the competition
      – Reacting immediately to price war
      – Better user friendly online booking facility
      – Ensuring fleet reliability and safety monitoring
Dynamics of Airline Industry
Basic Terminology
• Flight Leg (or “flight sector” or “flight segment”)
      – Non‐stop operation of an aircraft between A and B, with associated departure and arrival times
• Flight
      – One or more flight legs operated consecutively by a single aircraft (usually) and labelled with a single
      flight number (usually)
• Route
      – Consecutive links in a network served by single flight numbers
• Passenger Paths or Itineraries
      – Combination of flight legs chosen by passengers in a O‐D market to complete a journey
• Enplanement
       i.      Purchasing Tickets
       ii.     Boarding Pass
       iii.    Checking Baggage
       iv.     Undergoing Security Inspections
       v.      Boarding Airplane
• Deplanement
       i.      Exiting Airplane
       ii.     Exiting Terminal
       iii.    Baggage Retrieval
       iv.     Immigration and Customs Inspections
Measures for Airlines Economics
•   Air Traffic: Amount of airline output that is actually consumed/sold or enplaned passengers
    – RPM = Revenue Passenger Mile = (No. of revenue-paying passenger ) X (No. of mile flown during the
    period)
     • One paying passenger transported 1 mile
    – Yield = Revenue per RPM
     • Average fare paid by passengers, per mile flown
    – PDEW = Passenger trips per day each way
     • A common way to measure market demand
•   Airline Demand: Air traffic + “Rejected demand”
     – Rejected Demand or Spill are the passengers unable to find seats to fly
•   Airline Supply:
     – ASM = Available Seat Mile = (total no. of seats available for transporting passengers) X ( No. of miles
          flown during period)
     – Unit Cost = Operating Expense per ASM (“CASM”)
             • Average operating cost per unit of output
•   Airline Performance
     – Average Load Factor (LF)= RPM/ASM
             • Average Leg Load Factor (ALLF) = Sum of load factors/No. of flights
     – Average Network or System Load Factor (ALF) = ΣRPM/ΣASM
     – Unit Revenue = Revenue/ASM
     – Total Passenger Trip Time
Measures for Airlines Economics

• Average Stage Length
  – Average non‐stop flight distance
  – Aircraft Miles Flown/ Aircraft Departures
  – Longer average stage lengths associated with lower yields and lower unit
  costs
• Average Passenger Trip Length
  – Average distance flown from origin to destination
  – Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM)/ Passengers
  – Typically it is greater than average stage length, since some proportion
  of passengers will take more than one flight (connections)
• Average Number of Seats per Flight Departure
  – Available Seat Miles (ASM)/ Aircraft Miles Flown
  – Higher average seats per flight associated with lower unit costs
Airline Profit Maximizing Strategies
Strategy                   Intended Benefit      Pitfalls
Cutting Fares/ Yields      Stimulated demand     The price cut might generate a
                                                 disproportional
                                                 increase in total demand,
                                                 “elastic demand”
Increasing Fares/ Yields   Increase in revenue   The price increase can be
                                                 revenue positive if
                                                 demand is “inelastic”
Increasing Flights (ASM)   Stimulated demand     Increases Operational Costs

Decrease Flights (ASM)     Reduce Operational    Lower Frequencies may lead
                           Costs                 to market share
                                                 losses and lost demand
Improve Passenger          Stimulated demand     Increases Operational Costs
Service Quality
Reduce Passenger           Reduce Operational    Excessive cuts can reduce
Service Quality            Costs                 market share and
                                                 demand
Challenges Faced
• Inability of the Indian airlines to achieve cost parity
  with their global peers
   – High aviation fuel cost
   – Infrastructural bottlenecks
• Imbalance between the supply and demand for aircraft
  in India
• Lack of differentiation within the domestic carriers
  leading to intense competition
• Price wars among the various players including India’s
  flag carrier
• High levels of leverage of the carriers
Players
                                              2012
       Airline    Revenue        Exoenses            Gross Margin       PAT
                 (in Rs. bn)    (in Rs. bn)           (in Rs. bn)   (in Rs. bn)
Jet Airways        169.7         164.55                  5.15         (2.87)
SpiceJet           53.89          55.72                 (1.83)        (2.54)
Kingfisher         12.63          26.54                (13.91)       (32.89)




                                              2011
       Airline    Revenue        Exoenses            Gross Margin       PAT
                 (in Rs. bn)    (in Rs. bn)           (in Rs. bn)   (in Rs. bn)
Jet Airways       140.16         145.19                 (5.03)       (10.61)
SpiceJet           36.43          40.46                 (4.03)        (2.93)
Kingfisher         64.52          84.08                (19.56)        (15.2)
Analysis of
 Players
Jet Airways
Passenger Segment   Market Size (2012)     Market Share        Company’s
                     (in passengers)                          Growth Rate
Domestic                 588 lakh          25% (147lakh)         17.9%
International            434 lakh         40% (173.05lakh)       18.1%



PassengerSegment    No. of Destinations      Revenue         Total Revenue
                                            (InRs. bn)        Contribution
Domestic                    52                69.24             40.8%
International               21                  75              44.2%
Jet Airways
Codeshare Agreements for International services:




Jet Airways’ Services:

1. International Long Haul
    • First Class
    • Premiere
    • Economy Class
2. International Short Haul & Domestic
    • Premiere
    • Economy Class
3. In-Flight Entertainment
4. Jet Lounges
Strengths                                                    Weaknesses
• Public Listed company and promoters have credible            • Jet Airways operates as a FSC in one way and as a LCC in
  sources to back the airline operation                          the return
• Has wide international presence                                • Increases operational costs
                                                               • Improper positioning of Jet Airways and improper
                                                                 merging of Jet Lite and Jet Konnect
                                                               • Presence of multiple fleet operation




                                                   SWOT – Jet Airways



                     Opportunities                                                      Threats
• Expanding operations in Tier -2 and Tier 3 cities of India   • Rupee Depreciation
• Merging with Etihad Airways                                  • Increase in crude oil prices
  • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt          • FDI in Aviation
  • Increases the access to international destinations           • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia in LCC
• Increase in AC and First Class fares of Indian Railways          Segment
  • Most of the 300 million Middle class people will prefer      • Mergers like All Nippon Airways with SpiceJet or GoAir
    airlines
SpiceJet
Passenger Segment    Market Size (2012)         Market Share        Company’s
                      (in passengers)                              Growth Rate
Domestic                  588 lakh             20% (117.6lakh)          27%


    PassengerSegment           No. of Destinations                Revenue
                                                                 (InRs. bn)
Domestic                                  39                       52.87


SpicJet’ Services:

International Short Haul & Domestic:
     • In-flight Entertainment
     • SpiceJet MAX
Strengths                                                   Weaknesses
• Public listed company and promoters have credible           • Small international presence
  sources to back the airline operation                       • Dependency on leased assets
• Reaches 35 destinations in India
  • Strong regional connectivity
• Imports ATF and hence has less fuel cost
• Presence of single fleet of operation




                                                    SWOT – SpiceJet



                     Opportunities                                                     Threats
• Merging with All Nippon Airways/Tiger Airways               • Rupee Depreciation
  • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt         • Increase in crude oil prices
    burden                                                    • FDI in Aviation
  • Increases international presence                            • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia JV in LCC
• Increase in AC and First Class fares of Indian Railways         Segment
  • Most of the 300 million Middle class people will prefer     • Mergers like Etihad Airways with Jet Airways
    airlines
• Promotion of tourism by the Indian Government
Kingfisher Airlines
Passenger Segment      Market Size (2012)        Market Share          Company’s
                        (in passengers)                               Growth Rate
Domestic                     588 lakh            1% (5.88lakh)                Nil


    PassengerSegment               No. of Destinations               Revenue
                                                                    (InRs. bn)
Domestic                                    25                        11.29


Codeshare Agreement (Prior to suspension from IATA in April ‘12):

• American Airlines (Oneworld)
•Asiana Airlines (Star Alliance)
•Phillippine Airlines
Kingfisher Airlines

Kingfisher Airlines’ Services:
1. International (Prior to suspension – April’ 12)
     • Kingfisher First
     • Kingfisher Class
2. Domestic (Prior to suspension – Oct’12)
     • Kingfisher First
     • Kingfisher Class
     • Kingfisher Red
3. In-Flight Entertainment
4. King Club
Strengths                                                        Weaknesses
• Provided the best services as a FSC carrier                       • Unable to generate expected return on investment
• Targeted the domestic luxury segment in India                       • Has huge debt
                                                                    • Overspending of funds
                                                                    • Load factor is very low




                                                         SWOT - Kingfisher



                       Opportunities                                                           Threats
• Merging(or acquiring) with(or by) an International airline        • Presence of LCC carriers
  • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt burden        • Rupee Depreciation
  • Increases international presence                                • Increase in crude oil prices
• Expanding the network within India such as Tier II and Tier III   • FDI in Aviation
  cities                                                              • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia JV in LCC Segment
  • Disposable incomes are increasing                                 • Mergers like Etihad Airways with Jet Airways
Cost Analysis
        Expenses    Jet Airways     SpiceJet      Kingfisher Airlines
ATF                   40.18%         47.48%            31.78%
Employee Benefits      9.69%          8.71%             7.22%
Selling and            8.25%          5.85%             4.49%
Distribution
Aircraft Lease         5.49%         13.01%             9.37%
Rentals
Depreciation and       5.7%           0.67%             3.69%
Amortisation
Finance Cost           5.89%          1.13%            13.77%
Other Expenses         24.8%         23.14%            29.68%
Total               Rs.164.55 bn   Rs. 55.72 bn      Rs. 26.54 bn
Cost Analysis
      Expenses            Jet Airways              SpiceJet         Kingfisher Airlines
ATF                         40.18%                 47.48%                31.78%

Reasons:
•Kingfisher was able to reduce ATF expenses by
     • Route Rationalisation: Cut capacity in unprofitable routes
     • Fuel Consumption Saving Program
•SpiceJet has high ATF fuel prices due to increase in block hours
Cost Analysis
     Expenses            Jet Airways            SpiceJet         Kingfisher Airlines
Selling and                 8.25%                 5.85%                4.49%
Distribution


Reasons:
•Jet Airways: 57% of the Selling and Distribution expense comes from commission to
selling agents.
      • Very few consumers buy tickets from Jet Airways website/offices
      • Many prefer buying from Makemytrip.com, Yaatra.com etc.
Cost Analysis

     Expenses              Jet Airways               SpiceJet          Kingfisher Airlines
Aircraft Lease                5.49%                  13.01%                  9.37%
Rentals
Depreciation and               5.7%                   0.67%                  3.69%
Amortisation


Reason:
Jet Airways:
     •It has a fleet of 102 owned aircraft
     • It has taken a lease on engines and less number of aircrafts
SpiceJet:
     • It has a fleet of 47 leased aircraft and hence high lease rentals and less
     depreciation and amortisation expenses
Cost Analysis

     Expenses             Jet Airways        SpiceJet   Kingfisher Airlines
Finance Cost                 5.89%            1.13%          13.77%


Reasons:
•Kingfisher: Has taken loan of Rs.91.33 bn
•SpiceJet: Has taken loan of Rs. 9bn
Cost Analysis
     Expenses            Jet Airways            SpiceJet   Kingfisher Airlines
Other Expenses              24.8%                23.14%         29.68%

Reasons:
•Kingfisher: 11% of the total expenses is due to
     •Due to premature termination of lease/contracts
     •Restructuring/idle cost
Profitability Analysis

       Ratio        Jet Airways   SpiceJet   Kingfisher Airlines

Debt Equity           22.86        4.80             7.96

Operating Expense      58%         62%             126%

Gross Profit          3.03%       (3.40%)        (110.13%)

Net Profit           (1.69%)      (4.71%)        (260.41%)
Investment Requirement –
                        New Entrant
Investments required to start a airlines business
•    Airplane leases
•    Route structure/Marketing
•    Stations/ground handling agreements
•    Maintenance agreements
•    Accounting, HR and IT set-up
•    Company manuals, procedures and training for all FAA mandated departments (pilots, flight attendants,
     dispatchers, mechanics, customer service, ramp, security)
•    DOT approval - Financial fitness
•    FAA approval - Operational fitness
•    Hiring of pilots, flight attendants, dispatchers, mechanics, stations and administration folks
•    Training of all of the above
•    Proving runs with the FAA

As per the rules issued by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA),
•   Applicants for scheduled airline permit must have a minimum paid-up capital of Rs50 crores and a fleet of
    five large aircraft, with a carrying capacity of over 40,000 kg each to begin operations. These airlines
    companies will have to put in additional Rs20 crores equity for each additional aircraft beyond the
    minimum five required to start operations.
•   Airlines that plan to fly smaller planes should have a minimum fleet of five and a minimum equity of Rs20
    crores. They should add Rs10 crores to its equity for each addition of small aircraft.
Investment Required –
              Existing Airline
• Investments required to expand a airlines
  business
  – Investment in new aircraft lease
  – Route structure/Marketing
  – Hiring of new crew member
Future Outlook
• India will have the second highest growth rate at 13.1 percent CAGR
  (compounded annual growth rate), adding 49.3 million new
  passengers," IATA said in its Airline Industry Forecast 2012-2016.
• By 2016, the five largest markets for domestic passengers would be
  the United States (710.2 million), China (415 million), Brazil (118.9
  million), India (107.2 million) and Japan (93.2 million).
• The compound annual growth rate of the air cargo sector would be
  the highest for Sri Lanka at 8.7 per cent, followed by Vietnam (7.4
  per cent), Brazil (6.3), India (6.0) and Egypt (5.9), the IATA said
• India will be the fourth biggest market in terms of value for all new
  aircraft deliveries after China, the US and the UAE during the next
  20 years, according to aircraft maker Airbus
THANK
 YOU
Appendix
• http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/indust
  ry-and-economy/logistics/aviation-sector-
  could-face-less-turbulence-this-
  year/article4276831.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-
  economy

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AIRLINE INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: SEGMENTS AND PLAYERS

  • 1. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: Airlines Submitted by: Arunachalam Ramanathan (B11010) SumedhaDutta (B11047)
  • 2. AGENDA • Timeline - Airline Industry • Need Set • List of Operational Airlines • Macro Environmental Factors • Porter’s Five Forces • Growth in India • Segments in Indian Airline Industry • Capacity vs Demand • Cost Structure • Recent Events • Regulations • Critical Success Factors • Dynamics of Industry • Analysis of Players – Jet Airways – SpiceJet – Kingfisher Airlines • Investment Requirement • Future Outlook
  • 3. Timeline – Airline Industry Year Milestones <1953 Nine Airlines existed including Indian Airlines & Air India 1953 Nationalization of all private airlines through Air Corporations Act; 1986 Private players permitted to operate as air taxi operators 1994 Air Corporation act repealed; Private players can operate schedule services 1995 Jet, Sahara, Modiluft, Damania, East West granted scheduled carrier status 1997 4 out of 6 operators shut down; Jet & Sahara continue 2001 Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices decontrolled 2003 Air Deccan starts operations as India’s first LCC 2005 Kingfisher, SpiceJet, Indigo, Go Air, Paramount start operations 2007 Industry consolidates; Jet acquired Sahara; Kingfisher acquired Air Deccan
  • 4. Need Set • Need to travel in an airline: – Primary Need: To meet another person/group (Communication) – Secondary Need: Transportation – Tertiary Need: Faster means to travel COMPETITION: Direct Competitors: • Railways • Bus • Cars Generic Competitors: • Video Call Services
  • 5. List of Operational Airlines Status : Scheduled Airline Call Sign Commenced Operations Air India AIRINDIA October 1932(as Tata Airlines) Air India Express EXPRESS INDIA April 2005 Air India Regional ALLIED 1996(as Alliance Air) Air Kerala — April 2013(Planned) GoAir GOAIR June 2004 IndiGo IFLY August 2006 Kingfisher Airlines* KINGFISHER May 2005 Jagson Airlines JAGSON November 1991 Jet Airways JET AIRWAYS May 1993 SpiceJet SPICEJET May 2005
  • 6. List of Operational Airlines Status : Non-Scheduled Airline Call Sign Commenced Operations Air Mantra MANTRA July 2012 Air Odisha — November 2012 Club One Air — August 2005 Chhattisgarh Air Link — 2012 Deccan Charters DECCAN 1997 Deccan Shuttles DECCAN 2012 Invision Air — March 2011 TajAir — November 1993 (as Megapode) Ventura Airconnect AIRCONNECT July 2011
  • 7. Macro Environmental Factors Airline Industry is highly dependent on the following factors: Factors Outcome Impact on Airlines Increase in crude oil Increases Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) • Increase in fares leads to low prices prices (40% of the fare) demand • If fares are fixed, then it affects profits. Implementation of • New Entrants (Joint Ventures) • Increases competition in LCC FDI in Aviation • Mergers with International players segment • Increases operational efficiency • Price War • Reduces operating costs Increase in fares of • Middle Class segment will prefer • Increases profits as airlines AC and First Class airlines as it takes less time to travel will travel with full capacity tickets in Railways Recession: • People will reduce their frequency of • Decreases profits Indian Airline travel or will prefer low-priced • Incurs huge expenses as Industry Growth Rate transportation mediums like Railways the flights will be = 1.8 times GDP etc. grounded • Low demand
  • 8. Porter’s Five Forces Threat of New Entrant Saturated Industry hence there is hardly any space for a newcomer High cost of entry High State Tax levied on Airline Transport Fuel (ATF) High cost of buying and leasing aircrafts, safety and security measures, customer service and manpower Strong existing player Threat of Substitutes No perfect substitute for International carriers Domestic airlines can be substituted by Cars, Buses, Train and Video call services
  • 9. Porter’s Five Forces Bargaining Power of Suppliers Airline supply is dominated by Boeing and Airbus Very less number of manufacturers of Boeing & Airbus Aviation fuel is a commodity Bargaining Power of Buyers Large number of players competing for same set of customer Large number of players provides huge option for buyers
  • 10. Porter’s Five Forces Rivalry Many players Intense price competition High Fixed Cost Low Marginal Cost Homogeneous Product Excess Capacity
  • 11. Porter’s Five Forces Bargaining Power of Supplier High Threat of Threat of Rivalry New Entry Substitute High High Low Bargaining Power of Buyer High
  • 12. Growth in India • Railway fares of AC tier and First class are similar to airline fares – Over 300 million strong middle class present in India Domestic • FDI in Aviation Growth – – Reduces the debt burden 25.6% – Reduces operational costs due to availability of experts in the field of aviation • Tourism in India – Increase in inbound and outbound tourists and medical tourism • Disposable incomes expected to increase an average of 8.5% till 2015 • Airports Authority of India (AAI) announces new airports in Tier II and Tier III cities – Increases the demand for airline travel – Operational costs are very low and growth rates are high when compared to metro and Tier I cities • Higher profits
  • 13. Segments in Indian Airline Industry
  • 14. Classifications of Passengers for Airline Industry • Type 1 – Time sensitive and insensitive to Price – Business Travellers, who might be willing to pay premium price for extra amenities – Travel flexibility and last minute seat availability extremely important • Type 2 – Time sensitive and Price sensitive – Some Business Travellers, must make trip, but are flexible to secure reduced fare – Cannot book far enough in advance for lowest fares • Type 3 – Price sensitive and insensitive to Time – Classic Leisure or vacation travellers, willing to change time and day of travel and airport to find seat at lowest possible fare – Willing to make connections • Type 4 – Insensitive to both Time and Price – Few passengers who are willing to pay for high levels of service. – Can be combined with Type 1
  • 15. Segments Domestic Low Cost Carrier (LCC) International Segments in Indian Airline Passenger Industry Domestic Full Service Carrier (FSC) International
  • 16. Segments – Low Cost Carrier Low Cost Carrier: • Air Deccan was the first LCC in 2003 • Spicejet, IndiGo, JetKonnect and GoAir entered later LCC Model: • Have a uniform fleet of aircraft to drive cost efficiencies • Point-to-point system instead of a hub and spoke model to increase aircraft utilization rates • Reduce costs by utilizing second tier airports • Integrate online bookings and drive down their 
(POS) point of sales costs • Have best in class customer service metrics • Single class configuration – Higher number of seats in the aircraft
  • 17. Segments – Full Service Carrier Full Service Carrier: • Jet Airways, Air India and Kingfisher Airlines (Not operational) FSC Model: • Multiple fleet • Multiple class configuration • In-flight services – Entertainment – Food & Drinks
  • 18. Segments – Domestic Passengers Market Share – 2011 606 lakh passengers Indigo 6.10% 18% 19.50% Air India 16% Spicejet 18.30% 14.40% Jet Airways 7.60% Jet Lite Decline in domestic passengers by 2.97% GoAir • Increase in fares due to increase in ATF prices • Frequent cancellation of flights by Air Market Share – 2012 India and Kingfisher 588 lakh passengers 1% 7% Indigo 6% 27% Air India 18% Spicejet Jet Airways 21% 20% Jet Lite GoAir Kingfisher
  • 19. Segments – Domestic Passengers Airline Activity Reason Kingfisher Airlines • DGCA Forced to stop its operations • High debt • Lost 109 lakh passengers • Improper Revival plan Air India • Managed to gain 26.52 lakh • Kingfisher’s inability to operate as a passengers FSC • Frequent cancellation of flights due to pilot strike IndiGo • Increased its capacity by 30% • Used its cash to increase its • Entered international services capacity as it was the only airline • Each plane had 180 seats of making profits single class • Gained 40.6 lakh passengers SpiceJet • Concentrated mainly in Tier II and • Growth rate of Tier II and Tier III is Tier III cities higher than metros • Gained 30 lakh passengers Jet Airways • Increased its capacity slowly • Had small planes of 70-80 seats of • Lost 9 lakh passengers multiple classes • Had huge debt and hence couldn’t increase its capacity like IndiGo
  • 21. Capacity Vs Demand Fig: The graph shows Capacity vs. Demand chart for Domestic Airlines in India
  • 22. CostStructure Parameters Fare Parameters contribution Airline Fuel 40% • Crude oil prices • Rupee depreciation • Block hours (Difference between the time the door was closed (departure) and the time the door was opened (arrival)) Maintenance & 12% • Food and Cabin Expenses Repair Cost • Crew accommodation, transportation and allowances • Landing and Navigation charges Ownership Cost 13% • Purchase price of airplane • Insurance, Tie down or hangar fees, Subscription fees Other Expenses 30% • Employee Remuneration and benefits • Selling and Distribution costs • Interest Expense – Interest paid for the loan taken • Lease Rental
  • 23. Recent Events New Entry Mergers & Exits Acquisitions Kingfisher Airlines has Air Mantra (2012) – been forced to stop Operates between its operations due to Amritsar and Etihad Airways in talks with Jet Airways huge debt Chandigarh Joint Venture between Tata Group Tiger Airways in talks and Air Asia with SpicJet • Air Asia plans to invest $60 • To create a hub at mn Hyderabad All Nippon Airways in talks with SpiceJet and GoAir
  • 24. Regulations • DGCA’s enforcement of standardized block times: – All airlines should fly within the average block time fixed by DGCA for all routes across the country and take action against carriers which "cheat“. • Information about Flights and Reservations – Each passenger shall be provided neutral and accurate information on the flight details and reservation status by the airline company – The airline or its designated travel agent must pass on to the passengers the following information in the form of a computer print-out: • The identity of the airline which will actually provide the service, as opposed to the airline mentioned on the ticket; • Changes of aircraft during the journey; • Stops en-route during the journey; • Transfer between the airports during the journey
  • 25. Regulations • Cancellation of Flight – Airlines should inform the passengers of cancellations of their flights as far in advance as possible of the scheduled time of departure provided at the time of effecting his/her reservation – Passengers who have not been informed at least three hours in advance about the cancellation of the flight on which they were scheduled to travel, • Airlines shall provide compensation for the inconvenience caused • Airlines shall refund the ticket prices in the event they do not wish to travel instead on an alternate or subsequent flight of the carrier concerned or on another carrier’s flight • Airline shall provide customers with facilities at the airport in the event they have already reported for their original flight and whilst they are waiting for the alternate flight
  • 26. Regulations • Denied Boarding – Airlines shall be liable to pay compensation to passengers who are denied boarding • Delays in Flight • The airlines shall provide facilities if the passenger has checked in on time, and if the airline expects a delay beyond its original announced scheduled time of departure or a revised time of departure of: – 2 hours or more in case of flights having a block time of up to 2 ½ hrs; or – 3 hours or more in case of flights having a block time of more than 2 ½ hrs and up to 5 hours; or – 4 hours or more in case of flights not falling under above two • ICAO’s Policies on Charges for Airports and Air navigation Services
  • 27. Regulations • DGCA’s minimum capital requirement policy: As per the rules issued by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), – Applicants for scheduled airline permit must have a minimum paid-up capital of Rs50 crores and a fleet of five large aircraft, with a carrying capacity of over 40,000 kg each to begin operations. These airlines companies will have to put in additional Rs20 crores equity for each additional aircraft beyond the minimum five required to start operations. – Airlines that plan to fly smaller planes should have a minimum fleet of five and a minimum equity of Rs20 crores. They should add Rs10 crores to its equity for each addition of small aircraft. • FAA rules : It limits the number of hourly takeoffs and landings—called “slot” controls
  • 28. Critical Success Factors • Route System – Access to terminals in the airports that are visited the most – Customer demand of route vs maximum aircraft utilization • Revenue /Cost Control – Ability to handle transaction cost • Handling the high transaction cost due to uncertainties from the supply side by combining the operations under one corporate name : Internalisation – Having competitive and innovative pricing schemes to attract and maintain a customer base – Better fuel procurement process and price hedging during volatile periods • Service Product/Promotions – Aircraft seating space – Aircraft type – Class of service offering – Ease of booking
  • 29. Critical Success Factors • People (Service Oriented Industry) – High-caliber staff – Training programs focusing on front-line communicative skills • Ability of the Carrier to benefit from economies of scale and economies of scope by operating the carriers in hub or base in the airport – Acts as a structural entry barrier to other players and new entrants – Reduction of sales and marketing costs, customer service facilities, and flight cancellation costs – Benefits from increase in size of the base: • Flexibility to switch slots • Flexibility to switch crew staff from one route to another • Flexibility to adjust the connections with the fluctuation in demand – Better negotiation power to get attractive time slots and other services from the airport
  • 30. Critical Success Factors • Available Capacity – Number of aircrafts and the seating capacity in case of busy routes (where fixed cost is high) • Ability to diversify – Related Diversification: • Diversify into Air-freight industry • Diversify into Hospitality Industry – Joint Ventures: • JVs with Hotels, Shops in Airports, restaurants etc. • Ability to introduce more routes that are congestion free and less of bottlenecks • Investment in Technology – Helps in mitigating risks due to increase in capacity by opening new routes by competition and hence, to redeploy aircraft and secure gates and ground personnel immediately to react to the competition – Reacting immediately to price war – Better user friendly online booking facility – Ensuring fleet reliability and safety monitoring
  • 32. Basic Terminology • Flight Leg (or “flight sector” or “flight segment”) – Non‐stop operation of an aircraft between A and B, with associated departure and arrival times • Flight – One or more flight legs operated consecutively by a single aircraft (usually) and labelled with a single flight number (usually) • Route – Consecutive links in a network served by single flight numbers • Passenger Paths or Itineraries – Combination of flight legs chosen by passengers in a O‐D market to complete a journey • Enplanement i. Purchasing Tickets ii. Boarding Pass iii. Checking Baggage iv. Undergoing Security Inspections v. Boarding Airplane • Deplanement i. Exiting Airplane ii. Exiting Terminal iii. Baggage Retrieval iv. Immigration and Customs Inspections
  • 33. Measures for Airlines Economics • Air Traffic: Amount of airline output that is actually consumed/sold or enplaned passengers – RPM = Revenue Passenger Mile = (No. of revenue-paying passenger ) X (No. of mile flown during the period) • One paying passenger transported 1 mile – Yield = Revenue per RPM • Average fare paid by passengers, per mile flown – PDEW = Passenger trips per day each way • A common way to measure market demand • Airline Demand: Air traffic + “Rejected demand” – Rejected Demand or Spill are the passengers unable to find seats to fly • Airline Supply: – ASM = Available Seat Mile = (total no. of seats available for transporting passengers) X ( No. of miles flown during period) – Unit Cost = Operating Expense per ASM (“CASM”) • Average operating cost per unit of output • Airline Performance – Average Load Factor (LF)= RPM/ASM • Average Leg Load Factor (ALLF) = Sum of load factors/No. of flights – Average Network or System Load Factor (ALF) = ΣRPM/ΣASM – Unit Revenue = Revenue/ASM – Total Passenger Trip Time
  • 34. Measures for Airlines Economics • Average Stage Length – Average non‐stop flight distance – Aircraft Miles Flown/ Aircraft Departures – Longer average stage lengths associated with lower yields and lower unit costs • Average Passenger Trip Length – Average distance flown from origin to destination – Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM)/ Passengers – Typically it is greater than average stage length, since some proportion of passengers will take more than one flight (connections) • Average Number of Seats per Flight Departure – Available Seat Miles (ASM)/ Aircraft Miles Flown – Higher average seats per flight associated with lower unit costs
  • 35. Airline Profit Maximizing Strategies Strategy Intended Benefit Pitfalls Cutting Fares/ Yields Stimulated demand The price cut might generate a disproportional increase in total demand, “elastic demand” Increasing Fares/ Yields Increase in revenue The price increase can be revenue positive if demand is “inelastic” Increasing Flights (ASM) Stimulated demand Increases Operational Costs Decrease Flights (ASM) Reduce Operational Lower Frequencies may lead Costs to market share losses and lost demand Improve Passenger Stimulated demand Increases Operational Costs Service Quality Reduce Passenger Reduce Operational Excessive cuts can reduce Service Quality Costs market share and demand
  • 36. Challenges Faced • Inability of the Indian airlines to achieve cost parity with their global peers – High aviation fuel cost – Infrastructural bottlenecks • Imbalance between the supply and demand for aircraft in India • Lack of differentiation within the domestic carriers leading to intense competition • Price wars among the various players including India’s flag carrier • High levels of leverage of the carriers
  • 37. Players 2012 Airline Revenue Exoenses Gross Margin PAT (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) Jet Airways 169.7 164.55 5.15 (2.87) SpiceJet 53.89 55.72 (1.83) (2.54) Kingfisher 12.63 26.54 (13.91) (32.89) 2011 Airline Revenue Exoenses Gross Margin PAT (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) (in Rs. bn) Jet Airways 140.16 145.19 (5.03) (10.61) SpiceJet 36.43 40.46 (4.03) (2.93) Kingfisher 64.52 84.08 (19.56) (15.2)
  • 39. Jet Airways Passenger Segment Market Size (2012) Market Share Company’s (in passengers) Growth Rate Domestic 588 lakh 25% (147lakh) 17.9% International 434 lakh 40% (173.05lakh) 18.1% PassengerSegment No. of Destinations Revenue Total Revenue (InRs. bn) Contribution Domestic 52 69.24 40.8% International 21 75 44.2%
  • 40. Jet Airways Codeshare Agreements for International services: Jet Airways’ Services: 1. International Long Haul • First Class • Premiere • Economy Class 2. International Short Haul & Domestic • Premiere • Economy Class 3. In-Flight Entertainment 4. Jet Lounges
  • 41. Strengths Weaknesses • Public Listed company and promoters have credible • Jet Airways operates as a FSC in one way and as a LCC in sources to back the airline operation the return • Has wide international presence • Increases operational costs • Improper positioning of Jet Airways and improper merging of Jet Lite and Jet Konnect • Presence of multiple fleet operation SWOT – Jet Airways Opportunities Threats • Expanding operations in Tier -2 and Tier 3 cities of India • Rupee Depreciation • Merging with Etihad Airways • Increase in crude oil prices • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt • FDI in Aviation • Increases the access to international destinations • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia in LCC • Increase in AC and First Class fares of Indian Railways Segment • Most of the 300 million Middle class people will prefer • Mergers like All Nippon Airways with SpiceJet or GoAir airlines
  • 42. SpiceJet Passenger Segment Market Size (2012) Market Share Company’s (in passengers) Growth Rate Domestic 588 lakh 20% (117.6lakh) 27% PassengerSegment No. of Destinations Revenue (InRs. bn) Domestic 39 52.87 SpicJet’ Services: International Short Haul & Domestic: • In-flight Entertainment • SpiceJet MAX
  • 43. Strengths Weaknesses • Public listed company and promoters have credible • Small international presence sources to back the airline operation • Dependency on leased assets • Reaches 35 destinations in India • Strong regional connectivity • Imports ATF and hence has less fuel cost • Presence of single fleet of operation SWOT – SpiceJet Opportunities Threats • Merging with All Nippon Airways/Tiger Airways • Rupee Depreciation • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt • Increase in crude oil prices burden • FDI in Aviation • Increases international presence • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia JV in LCC • Increase in AC and First Class fares of Indian Railways Segment • Most of the 300 million Middle class people will prefer • Mergers like Etihad Airways with Jet Airways airlines • Promotion of tourism by the Indian Government
  • 44. Kingfisher Airlines Passenger Segment Market Size (2012) Market Share Company’s (in passengers) Growth Rate Domestic 588 lakh 1% (5.88lakh) Nil PassengerSegment No. of Destinations Revenue (InRs. bn) Domestic 25 11.29 Codeshare Agreement (Prior to suspension from IATA in April ‘12): • American Airlines (Oneworld) •Asiana Airlines (Star Alliance) •Phillippine Airlines
  • 45. Kingfisher Airlines Kingfisher Airlines’ Services: 1. International (Prior to suspension – April’ 12) • Kingfisher First • Kingfisher Class 2. Domestic (Prior to suspension – Oct’12) • Kingfisher First • Kingfisher Class • Kingfisher Red 3. In-Flight Entertainment 4. King Club
  • 46. Strengths Weaknesses • Provided the best services as a FSC carrier • Unable to generate expected return on investment • Targeted the domestic luxury segment in India • Has huge debt • Overspending of funds • Load factor is very low SWOT - Kingfisher Opportunities Threats • Merging(or acquiring) with(or by) an International airline • Presence of LCC carriers • Increases operational efficiency and reduces debt burden • Rupee Depreciation • Increases international presence • Increase in crude oil prices • Expanding the network within India such as Tier II and Tier III • FDI in Aviation cities • New entrants like Air Mantra, Tata-AirAsia JV in LCC Segment • Disposable incomes are increasing • Mergers like Etihad Airways with Jet Airways
  • 47. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines ATF 40.18% 47.48% 31.78% Employee Benefits 9.69% 8.71% 7.22% Selling and 8.25% 5.85% 4.49% Distribution Aircraft Lease 5.49% 13.01% 9.37% Rentals Depreciation and 5.7% 0.67% 3.69% Amortisation Finance Cost 5.89% 1.13% 13.77% Other Expenses 24.8% 23.14% 29.68% Total Rs.164.55 bn Rs. 55.72 bn Rs. 26.54 bn
  • 48. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines ATF 40.18% 47.48% 31.78% Reasons: •Kingfisher was able to reduce ATF expenses by • Route Rationalisation: Cut capacity in unprofitable routes • Fuel Consumption Saving Program •SpiceJet has high ATF fuel prices due to increase in block hours
  • 49. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines Selling and 8.25% 5.85% 4.49% Distribution Reasons: •Jet Airways: 57% of the Selling and Distribution expense comes from commission to selling agents. • Very few consumers buy tickets from Jet Airways website/offices • Many prefer buying from Makemytrip.com, Yaatra.com etc.
  • 50. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines Aircraft Lease 5.49% 13.01% 9.37% Rentals Depreciation and 5.7% 0.67% 3.69% Amortisation Reason: Jet Airways: •It has a fleet of 102 owned aircraft • It has taken a lease on engines and less number of aircrafts SpiceJet: • It has a fleet of 47 leased aircraft and hence high lease rentals and less depreciation and amortisation expenses
  • 51. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines Finance Cost 5.89% 1.13% 13.77% Reasons: •Kingfisher: Has taken loan of Rs.91.33 bn •SpiceJet: Has taken loan of Rs. 9bn
  • 52. Cost Analysis Expenses Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines Other Expenses 24.8% 23.14% 29.68% Reasons: •Kingfisher: 11% of the total expenses is due to •Due to premature termination of lease/contracts •Restructuring/idle cost
  • 53. Profitability Analysis Ratio Jet Airways SpiceJet Kingfisher Airlines Debt Equity 22.86 4.80 7.96 Operating Expense 58% 62% 126% Gross Profit 3.03% (3.40%) (110.13%) Net Profit (1.69%) (4.71%) (260.41%)
  • 54. Investment Requirement – New Entrant Investments required to start a airlines business • Airplane leases • Route structure/Marketing • Stations/ground handling agreements • Maintenance agreements • Accounting, HR and IT set-up • Company manuals, procedures and training for all FAA mandated departments (pilots, flight attendants, dispatchers, mechanics, customer service, ramp, security) • DOT approval - Financial fitness • FAA approval - Operational fitness • Hiring of pilots, flight attendants, dispatchers, mechanics, stations and administration folks • Training of all of the above • Proving runs with the FAA As per the rules issued by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), • Applicants for scheduled airline permit must have a minimum paid-up capital of Rs50 crores and a fleet of five large aircraft, with a carrying capacity of over 40,000 kg each to begin operations. These airlines companies will have to put in additional Rs20 crores equity for each additional aircraft beyond the minimum five required to start operations. • Airlines that plan to fly smaller planes should have a minimum fleet of five and a minimum equity of Rs20 crores. They should add Rs10 crores to its equity for each addition of small aircraft.
  • 55. Investment Required – Existing Airline • Investments required to expand a airlines business – Investment in new aircraft lease – Route structure/Marketing – Hiring of new crew member
  • 56. Future Outlook • India will have the second highest growth rate at 13.1 percent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate), adding 49.3 million new passengers," IATA said in its Airline Industry Forecast 2012-2016. • By 2016, the five largest markets for domestic passengers would be the United States (710.2 million), China (415 million), Brazil (118.9 million), India (107.2 million) and Japan (93.2 million). • The compound annual growth rate of the air cargo sector would be the highest for Sri Lanka at 8.7 per cent, followed by Vietnam (7.4 per cent), Brazil (6.3), India (6.0) and Egypt (5.9), the IATA said • India will be the fourth biggest market in terms of value for all new aircraft deliveries after China, the US and the UAE during the next 20 years, according to aircraft maker Airbus
  • 58. Appendix • http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/indust ry-and-economy/logistics/aviation-sector- could-face-less-turbulence-this- year/article4276831.ece?ref=wl_industry-and- economy