The document provides tips for adjusting a business model during an economic recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. It suggests focusing on five main areas: changes to the business model, sales, customer trust and confidence, operations, and supply chain. Specific recommendations include increasing online sales, automating processes, ensuring customer and employee safety, shifting to remote work where possible, diversifying suppliers, and maintaining cash reserves. The document also outlines areas governments should focus on such as increasing healthcare capacity, implementing population control measures, revising sick leave policies, and expanding digital public services.

1. 1
How to change your business
during the corona-recession
Tips on how to adjust your business model during
the recession caused by coronavirus

2. 2
The coronavirus will cause a recession and will require from you adjustments in
the business model and how you conduct your business.

3. 3
As it was with in the case of the 9/11 aftermath a lot of customer behaviors will
be permanently changed. Also businesses will ave to adjust to the new reality.

4. 4
I will try to show some tips how to adjust your business model to the new reality,
what areas you should concentrate on and what options for you are on the table

5. 5
Corona-recession means that you will have to rethink your business in 5
main area
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others

6. 6
In the case of sales you will have to make yourself more immune to similar
shocks
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
Sell more online
Sell more directly to
customer
Scale your capacity in
online sales
Redirect your offline
customers to online
customers
Automate processes
in retail
Make retail safer for
customers
Make retail safer for
employees
Have less people in
retail stores
Sell more as a
subscription
Make it visible that
it’s safer
Increase the role of
the digital services in
your revenues
Be able to deliver
new value to
customers remotely

7. 7
Let’s see what you can do to increase the customer trust and their
confidence that your operations are safe for them
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
Have less people in
retail stores
Automate processes
in retail
Purell distributors at
your locations for
customers
Masks & gloves
available for free for
the customers
All goods packed
Automate advisory &
cash tills
Control the flow of
customers
Increase the space
between customers
Make it visible that
it’s safer
Increase sales
without human
contact
Sell more online
Change your
customer retention
policy

8. 8
A lot of changes have to be done in operations
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
Masks & gloves
available for free for
the employees
More shift work –
less human contact
Automate whatever
you can
Use more machines
and less people
Change the layout of
the factories – less
human contact
Have more but
smaller factories
Clean everything
every 4-8 hours
Shift work in Head
office
Decrease density and
open spaces
Change air-condition
system
Build infrastructure
for remote work
More remote work
Change your sick
leave & health policy

9. 9
A lot of changes have to be done also in supply chain
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
Diversify suppliers
Keep much more
stock
Simplify &
standardize products
More smaller
independent facilities
Track and control
tools & assets used
by people
Shorten lead times
Clean everything
every 4-8 hours
Change air-condition
system
Automate supply
chain (warehousing,
transport etc.)
Do more with
software
Increase remote
work & make people
more universal
Create more buffers

10. 10
Firms to be safer will also have to change their approach to their balance
sheet.
Changes in the business
model
Sales
Customer Trust &
Confidence
Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
Keep much more
cash – 3 – 9 months
of costs
Increase the share of
equity – 50% of total
Increase stock levels
Have collaterals or
guarantees on your
receivables
Retain more earnings
in the firm
Use assets that you
can scale down & up
Limit buybacks of
share
Stress test your
balance sheet

11. 11
In business you have to make a lot of important decisions
Also governments will have to adjust their policy to be able to act
quickly and not be totally surprised like it’s happening now

12. 12
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others

13. 13
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others
List situations for
which you have to
prepare
List resources needed
Keep resources for 3-
6 months of
pandemic
Have ability to scale
production 10x in 3
months locally
Keep 12 months raw
material for
production
Make production as
automatic as possible
Build a national fund
for 3-6 months
pandemic
Have a pandemic
team that can’t be
changed by politics
Pandemic team has
to have independent
budget
Pandemic budget
should be a % of GDP
Set % cannot be
changed by
politicians
Keep low deficit in
normal times

14. 14
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others
Automate your
healthcare
Keep a list of former
employees of
healthcare
Train more
healthcare workers
than you need
Introduce basic
healthcare training
for all
Use more machines,
software
Have supplies to
keep your system
running for 3 - 6 M
Draft people to
healthcare if the
need occurs
Have a list & a plan of
converting facilities
into hospitals
Simplify procedure
and chains
Make hospitals more
universal

15. 15
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others
Track people who
had contact with sick
people via GPS
Measure
temperature on
borders
Oblige employers to
measure & track
health status
Measure health
status via wearables
Oblige event
organizers to have a
list of participants
Track movement of
sick people via GPS /
mobile phone
Have penalties for
sick people working
Compulsory
vaccination
Increase the number
of vaccinations
Change the layout of
the cities
Impose limits on the
size of cities
Impose restriction on
travelling conditions

16. 16
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others
Compulsory payment
for sick leave
Payment as a high
percentage of the
salary (50-80%)
Have penalties for
sick people working
Sick kids compelled
to use online learning
Finance the sick
leaves for parents
when they kid is sick
Refund vaccination

17. 17
The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas
Changes in the business
model
Build strategic
resources for
pandemic
Be able to 10x
your healthcare
Increase
Population
Control
Change Sick
Leave Policy
Offer all public
services online
Others
All contacts with the
government done
online
Online learning for all
levels of education
Online exams / tests
system
Digital confirmation
of actions
Online or phone
based healthcare
Decentralize &
automate things that
cannot be digitalized
Obliged employers to
have 20% remote
work
Have 20% of public
employees work
remote

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