In 2014, the financial condition of retailers appears strong—and growing—with retailers having a more positive outlook on the upcoming holiday season as well as overall sales than even a year ago. Despite challenges related to technology adoption and the ability to buy anything anywhere, retailers are embracing change.
They are making new investments in products, expanding their digital strategy and becoming more comfortable with social media as a tool for multiple facets of their business.
In order to understand current retail industry trends, challenges and outlook, Harris Poll, on behalf of CIT, a leader in financing and advisory services to the retail sector, conducted research online from September 16 to October 3 among 251 financial decision makers in U.S.-based middle market retailers.
1. 1
2015 Retail Outlook
KEY HEADLINES FROM RESEARCH
Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
for Current and Future Finances
Holiday Season Looking Up
According to Most Retailers
Staff Increasing for Holidays,
Promotions Earlier and Earlier
Top Priorities: Innovation,
Marketing and Online/Mobile
Key Threats: One-Stop Shops
and New Technologies
Online Channel Growing,
Supporting and Challenging
Mobile (Perhaps
Under-exploited) Edge
Social Media Less of a Hurdle
Throughout this report there are references to subsets of the total sample (Brick-and-mortar-only, online-only and combined retailers).
Due to small base sizes, findings among these subsets are more qualitative in nature.
In 2014, the financial condition of retailers appears
strong—and growing—with retailers having a
more positive outlook on the upcoming holiday
season as well as overall sales than even a year ago.
Despite challenges related to technology adoption
and the ability to buy anything anywhere, retailers
are embracing change. They are making new
investments in products, expanding their digital
strategy and becoming more comfortable with
social media as a tool for multiple facets of
their business.
In order to understand current trends, challenges
and outlook for the retail industry, Harris Poll,
on behalf of CIT, a leader in financing and advisory
services to the retail sector, conducted research
online from September 16 to October 3 among
251 financial decision makers in U.S.-based middle
market retailers.
2. 2
2015 Retail Outlook
Cautiously Optimistic
Outlook for Current and Future Finances
More than 8 in 10 retailers offer a positive view of
their company’s current financial situation, describing
it as healthy, much more so than last year. And, the
majority offer a promising forecast for 2014 sales,
growing across all channels, except catalog. In fact,
more than 6 in 10 retailers (especially online only)
expect at least a 6% increase in total sales for 2014,
up significantly from last year.
However, most do not feel
the same way about catalog/
phone sales (27%)
Over the next year, the
majority of retailers expect
consumer confidence (61%) to
have the most positive impact
on their business.
Additionally, the expected
positive impact of consumer
(51%) and business (47%) credit/
financing has become stronger
over the past year.
THEIR COMPANY’S CURRENT FINANCIAL CONDITION
IS “HEALTHY” OR “VERY HEALTHY,” COMPARED TO
ONLY 70% WHO FELT EQUALLY OPTIMISTIC IN 2013
80% of online-only
retailers expect an
increase of 6% or
more, compared to
60%ofcombinedand
52% of brick-and-
mortar-onlyretailers
anticipate an increase in total
sales of 6% or more for 2014 in 2013
vs.62%OF
RETAILERS
OVER
43%OF
RETAILERS
ONLY
MOST RETAILERS BELIEVE REVENUE IS GROWING FROM
MOBILE SALES
61%
IN-STORE SALES
57%
WEBSITE SALES
73%
COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK
A recent release of Nielsen’s Global Consumer
Confidence Trend Tracker reflects similar
cautious optimism for many regions, in particular
North America.
Source: Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker 2014
<1%
3%
9%
11%
35%
26%
16%
0%
3%
5%
7%
23%
45%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
More than
10%
6-10% 1-5% Remain the
same
1-5% 6-10% More than
10%
BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q5 (T13) What is your outlook for total sales in fiscal year 2014? Relative to fiscal year 2013, our company’s sales for 2014 will…
COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK
Decrease
Net
8%
Increase
Net
85%
Significantly
higher
than
2013
at
Significantly
lower
than
2013
at
t
FOR
SLIDE
2
2014
2013
Though still a majority, brick-and-mortar-only retailers (73%)
are slightly less optimistic than combined retailers (82%) or
online only (81%).
82%RETAILERS
SAY...
OF
3. 3
2015 Retail Outlook
2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK
Holiday Season
Looking Up
According to Most Retailers
Not only are retailers optimistic about sales overall,
most also express confidence specifically about the
upcoming holiday season. More than half of retailers
(a significant jump from 2013) anticipate that total
sales for the 2014 holiday season will increase by at
least 6%, driven primarily by online shopping and
proposed discounts.
According to the Holiday
Sales Forecast released from
Nielsen, due to rising consumer
confidence, holiday spending
is predicted to increase 1.9%
compared to last year.
Source: Nielsen Holiday Survey 2014
Online-only and combined retailers are much more
likely to feel holiday sales will increase than those
who are brick-and-mortar-only (96% and 87%,
respectively vs. 67%).
EXPECT ONLINE SHOPPING TO
HAVE THE BIGGEST INCREMENTAL
IMPACT ON HOLIDAY SALES
More than two in five expect in-store and online discounts
(43%) to have a notable impact.
¡ Brick-and-mortar-only retailers expect the weather (54%)
and fuel prices (44%) to have the most incremental impact
on holiday sales whereas online only and combined retailers
anticipate increases in online shopping (76% and 60%,
respectively) and in-store or online discounts (66% and 56%,
respectively) to be the biggest holiday sales drivers.
MORE THAN HALF
OF RETAILERS
anticipate total sales for the 2014
holiday season to increase by 6%
(or more), compared to only 1 in 3
retailers (33%) in 2013.55%
53%
1% 1%
9%
24%
33%
23%
10%
0% 1%
3%
14%
26%
36%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
More than
10%
6-10% 1-5% Remain the
same
1-5% 6-10% More than
10%
Decrease
(Net)
4%
Increase
Net
81%
2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK
Significantly
higher
than
2013
Significantly
lower
than
2013
a
FOR
SLIDE
3
2014
2013
BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q8 (T13) What is your outlook for the 2014 Holiday Season? Relative to the 2013, Holiday Season our company’s sales for 2014 will…
5. 5
2015 Retail Outlook
However, not everything is auspicious in the retail
industry; most retailers say they will face several
challenges in the near and long term. The majority
predict that some prominent retailers will close in
the next 1-3 years, or at least decline in value.
Specifically, brick-and-mortar-only stores are seen
as unsustainable in the future and do not represent
a viable long-term strategy, even according to many
brick-and-mortar retailers themselves. However,
many retailers (especially those with a brick-and-
mortar presence) acknowledge that the online world
is a major hurdle that will need to be overcome.
Key Threats
One-Stop Shops and New Technologies
¡ Approximately 7 in 10 retailers
feel that the consumer appeal
and overall brand value of
prominent retailers is on the
decline, much more so than one
year ago (65% vs. 48% in 2013).
¡ Four in ten retailers with both a brick-and-
mortar and online presence (40%) view the
online world as a significant challenge to their
brand and recognize their need to adjust
accordingly.
believe one or more prominent retailers
will likely disappear in the next 1-3 years
NEARLY 3 IN 4 RETAILERS
OF RETAILERS AGREE THAT
BRICK-AND-MORTAR-ONLY STORES
WILL NOT SURVIVE IN THE FUTURE
Nearly half (45%) of brick-and-mortar-only retailers agree
58%
72%
BRICK AND MORTAR SURVIVAL
37%
21%
Retailers
with
only
a
brick-‐and-‐mortar
presence
will
not
survive
in
the
future
58 %
TOP 2 BOX
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
9. 9
2015 Retail Outlook
Online Channel
Growing, Supporting and Challenging
However, despite the majority feeling that brick-and-
mortar-only stores represent an untenable future
business model, these retailers are concentrating
much less on their online strategy than combined
and online-only retailers.
Additionally, combined retailers see the online world
as a significant challenge that they need to adjust
to. Online-only retailers are less confounded by the
online world with more than 8 in 10 feeling they
are faring fairly well (either holding their own or
outperforming the competition).
Retailers (including online-only) favor by about a
3:2 margin to pass The Marketplace Fairness Act
in order to level the playing field between remote
sellers and local businesses.
Continued
with both a brick-and-mortar and on-
line presence view the online world
as a significant challenge to their
brand and recognize their need to
adjust accordingly
34% OF COMBINED RETAILERS
say their brand works well in the
online world and they are holding
their own
¡ Only 18% of brick-and-
mortar-only retailers are
currently focusing their
investments on their online
presence, compared to 74%
of online-only and 71% of
combined retailers.
¡ Twenty six percent of
combined retailers feel their
brand works well in online
world and are outperforming
the competition.
¡ Nearly 6 in 10 (56%) favor the
Marketplace Fairness Act in
order to level the playing field
between remote sellers and
local retailers.
¡ Support for the Marketplace
Fairness Act is even evident
among online-only retailers
(65%).
40% OF RETAILERS
10. 10
2015 Retail Outlook
Mobile Edge
Perhaps Under-Exploited
Even though today only about 6% of retail sales
(on average) are generated through a mobile
channel, more than 8 in 10 retailers say that having
mobile apps represent a key advantage over the
competition.
Significant sales growth in the mobile channel is
predicted in the near term—from 6% overall today
to 9% in the next 1-3 years (an increase of 50%).
Many retailers (especially online only and combined)
view this as a clear directive to focus their energy
toward mobile. More than half of retailers (especially
online only and combined) have taken active steps
to improve their mobile technology (in particular,
improving website design, conducting email
campaigns and creating mobile apps), while about
1 in 4 brick-and-mortar-only retailers admit they have
done nothing to date.
¡ Today, on average, about 6% of retailers’ sales are generated
via mobile.
¡ Only 9% of retailers today say mobile generates over 15% of
their sales, while 26% of retailers anticipate that over 15% of
their sales will come from mobile in 1-3 years.
¡ More than 8 in 10 retailers (81%) say that retailers who have
mobile apps have an advantage over those who do not,
including 83% of brick-and-mortar-only.
¡ Over half of retailers have updated their website (56%)
or increased email campaigns (52%) to take advantage
of mobile technology.
¡ Online only and combined retailers are much more likely to
have taken steps to take advantage of mobile technology,
especially email campaigns (70%/60% vs. 48%), texting
campaigns (49%/41% vs. 32%) and new mobile applications
(53%/53% vs. 42%) than brick-and-mortar-only retailers.
¡ Twenty five percent of brick-and-mortar-only retailers have
taken no steps to improve mobile technology.
% OF COMPANY’S CURRENT SALES GENERATED
VIA MOBILE
MOBILE APP ADVANTAGE
0%
6%
20%
13%
24%
14%
23%
6%
3%
9%
25%
37%
21%
Mean
Over 20%
16-20%
11-15%
6-10%
1-5%
0%
5.9 8.9
Today
1-3 Years
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q15 Approximately what percentage of your company’s current
sales are generated through mobile? And what percentage do you
anticipate in the next 1-3 years?
43%
38%
Retailers
that
have
mobile
apps
have
an
advantage
over
retailers
who
do
not
Pa
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
81 %
TOP 2 BOX
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
11. 11
2015 Retail Outlook
Social Media
Less of a Hurdle
The majority of retailers recognize that social
media plays an important role in brand awareness,
promotions and customer loyalty. And, comfort and
knowledge in the social media space appears to
be on the rise from last year. In 2013, the majority
of retailers classified themselves as “beginner”
or “intermediate,” and today, the balance has
shifted, and most retailers categorize themselves
as “advanced” or “expert”. Despite this confidence,
social media still brings with it a variety of
challenges, including how to leverage it to
drive sales.
¡ Approximately 7 in 10 retailers feel social media
plays at least somewhat of an important role in
brand awareness (71%), promotions (70%) and
customer loyalty (69%).
¡ More retailers consider themselves “advanced”
(32%) or “expert” (21%) when it comes to
social media strategies, while just last year, the
majority classified themselves as “intermediate”
(42%) or “beginner” (16%).
¡ When asked what is the single greatest challenge
posed to your company by social media, “finding
ways to use social media to drive sales” was the
most cited obstacle among retailers (20%).
FOR
SLIDE
11
Ambivalent: We have no significant social media strategies underway or in planning.
Beginner: We are just beginning our exploration of social media.
Intermediate: We are expanding our capabilities in social media, but are just finding our way.
Advanced: We are embracing social media and are working hard to improve our capabilities in
interacting with customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty.
Expert: We have embraced, understand and are now actively and capably interacting with our
customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty.
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q20 (T13) Which of the following best describes the state of your company’s social media strategies?
8%
29%
42%
16%
5%
21%
32%
31%
9%
7%
2014 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGY EXPERIENCE
12. 12
2015 Retail Outlook
Methodology
About the Harris Poll
This study was commissioned by CIT and conducted online
by Harris Poll within the United States between September
16 and October 3, 2014, among 251 financial decision makers
within the retail industry working at companies with revenue
between $5 million and $3 billion.
The data for this research study was weighted to ensure
that the data is balanced and accurately represents the
firmographics of interest to CIT. Figures for: industry, title,
functional role, decision-maker role, company ownership
structure and company location/region were weighted to
bring them into line with the respondent profile from
prior research.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use
probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources
of error which are most often not possible to quantify
or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error,
error associated with nonresponse, error associated with
question wording and response options, and post-survey
weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll
avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading.
All that can be calculated are different possible sampling
errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted,
random samples with 100% response rates. These are only
theoretical because no published polls come close to
this ideal.
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