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2015 Retail Outlook
KEY HEADLINES FROM RESEARCH
Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
for Current and Future Finances
Holiday Season Looking Up
According to Most Retailers
Staff Increasing for Holidays,
Promotions Earlier and Earlier
Top Priorities: Innovation,
Marketing and Online/Mobile
Key Threats: One-Stop Shops
and New Technologies
Online Channel Growing,
Supporting and Challenging
Mobile (Perhaps
Under-exploited) Edge
Social Media Less of a Hurdle
Throughout this report there are references to subsets of the total sample (Brick-and-mortar-only, online-only and combined retailers).
Due to small base sizes, findings among these subsets are more qualitative in nature.
In 2014, the financial condition of retailers appears
strong—and growing—with retailers having a
more positive outlook on the upcoming holiday
season as well as overall sales than even a year ago.
Despite challenges related to technology adoption
and the ability to buy anything anywhere, retailers
are embracing change. They are making new
investments in products, expanding their digital
strategy and becoming more comfortable with
social media as a tool for multiple facets of
their business.
In order to understand current trends, challenges
and outlook for the retail industry, Harris Poll,
on behalf of CIT, a leader in financing and advisory
services to the retail sector, conducted research
online from September 16 to October 3 among
251 financial decision makers in U.S.-based middle
market retailers.
2
2015 Retail Outlook
Cautiously Optimistic
Outlook for Current and Future Finances
More than 8 in 10 retailers offer a positive view of
their company’s current financial situation, describing
it as healthy, much more so than last year. And, the
majority offer a promising forecast for 2014 sales,
growing across all channels, except catalog. In fact,
more than 6 in 10 retailers (especially online only)
expect at least a 6% increase in total sales for 2014,
up significantly from last year.
However, most do not feel
the same way about catalog/
phone sales (27%)
Over the next year, the
majority of retailers expect
consumer confidence (61%) to
have the most positive impact
on their business.
Additionally, the expected
positive impact of consumer
(51%) and business (47%) credit/
financing has become stronger
over the past year.
THEIR COMPANY’S CURRENT FINANCIAL CONDITION
IS “HEALTHY” OR “VERY HEALTHY,” COMPARED TO
ONLY 70% WHO FELT EQUALLY OPTIMISTIC IN 2013
80% of online-only
retailers expect an
increase of 6% or
more, compared to
60%ofcombinedand
52% of brick-and-
mortar-onlyretailers
anticipate an increase in total
sales of 6% or more for 2014 in 2013
vs.62%OF
RETAILERS
OVER
43%OF
RETAILERS
ONLY
MOST RETAILERS BELIEVE REVENUE IS GROWING FROM
MOBILE SALES
61%
IN-STORE SALES
57%
WEBSITE SALES
73%
COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK
A recent release of Nielsen’s Global Consumer
Confidence Trend Tracker reflects similar
cautious optimism for many regions, in particular
North America.
Source: Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker 2014
<1%
3%
9%
11%
35%
26%
16%
0%
3%
5%
7%
23%
45%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
More than
10%
6-10% 1-5% Remain the
same
1-5% 6-10% More than
10%
BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q5 (T13) What is your outlook for total sales in fiscal year 2014? Relative to fiscal year 2013, our company’s sales for 2014 will…
COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK
Decrease	
  Net	
  
8%	
  
Increase	
  Net	
  
85%	
  
Significantly	
  higher	
  than	
  2013	
  at	
  
Significantly	
  lower	
  than	
  2013	
  at	
  t
FOR	
  SLIDE	
  2	
  
2014
2013
Though still a majority, brick-and-mortar-only retailers (73%)
are slightly less optimistic than combined retailers (82%) or
online only (81%).
82%RETAILERS
SAY...
OF
3
2015 Retail Outlook
2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK
Holiday Season
Looking Up
According to Most Retailers
Not only are retailers optimistic about sales overall,
most also express confidence specifically about the
upcoming holiday season. More than half of retailers
(a significant jump from 2013) anticipate that total
sales for the 2014 holiday season will increase by at
least 6%, driven primarily by online shopping and
proposed discounts.
According to the Holiday
Sales Forecast released from
Nielsen, due to rising consumer
confidence, holiday spending
is predicted to increase 1.9%
compared to last year.
Source: Nielsen Holiday Survey 2014
Online-only and combined retailers are much more
likely to feel holiday sales will increase than those
who are brick-and-mortar-only (96% and 87%,
respectively vs. 67%).
EXPECT ONLINE SHOPPING TO
HAVE THE BIGGEST INCREMENTAL
IMPACT ON HOLIDAY SALES
More than two in five expect in-store and online discounts
(43%) to have a notable impact.
¡	Brick-and-mortar-only retailers expect the weather (54%)
and fuel prices (44%) to have the most incremental impact
on holiday sales whereas online only and combined retailers
anticipate increases in online shopping (76% and 60%,
respectively) and in-store or online discounts (66% and 56%,
respectively) to be the biggest holiday sales drivers.
MORE THAN HALF
OF RETAILERS
anticipate total sales for the 2014
holiday season to increase by 6%
(or more), compared to only 1 in 3
retailers (33%) in 2013.55%
53%
1% 1%
9%
24%
33%
23%
10%
0% 1%
3%
14%
26%
36%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
More than
10%
6-10% 1-5% Remain the
same
1-5% 6-10% More than
10%
Decrease	
  (Net)	
  
4%	
  
Increase	
  Net	
  
81%	
  
2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK
Significantly	
  higher	
  than	
  2013	
  
Significantly	
  lower	
  than	
  2013	
  a
FOR	
  SLIDE	
  3	
  
2014
2013
BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q8 (T13) What is your outlook for the 2014 Holiday Season? Relative to the 2013, Holiday Season our company’s sales for 2014 will…
4
2015 Retail Outlook
opyright	
  ©2014	
  The	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
3	
  
Upcoming Holiday Season
5%
8%
9%
5%
4%
74%
58%
37%
41%
35%
21%
34%
54%
54%
60%
Number of headquarters
executives
Number of in-store exempt
(e.g., store managers)
workers
Total number of hours
worked by hourly
employees
Number of staff devoted to
Internet/mobile sales
channels
Total number of hourly
employees
Upcoming New Year, 2015
■	
  Decrease	
  	
  	
  ■	
  About the same ■	
  Increase
6%
10%
11%
8%
8%
63%
54%
53%
51%
44%
31%
37%
36%
41%
49%
Number of headquarters
executives
Number of in-store exempt
(e.g., store managers)
workers
Total number of hours
worked by hourly
employees
Number of staff devoted to
Internet/mobile sales
channels
Total number of hourly
employees
FOR	
  SLIDE	
  4	
  
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q3 Thinking about the upcoming holiday season (Thanksgiving and Christmas), in terms of both hourly and exempt workers, do you expect your staff
size to increase, decrease or will it remain about the same?
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q4 Starting in 2015, in terms of both hourly and exempt workers, do you expect your staff size to increase, decrease or will it remain about the same?
Staff Increasing
for the Holidays
Promotions Earlier and Earlier
Perhaps encouraged by these expectations, the
majority of retailers also plan to increase their staff
for the holiday season and either maintain or increase
staff in the New Year.
Not surprisingly due to the expected financial payoff,
almost 2 in 3 retailers have been gradually moving
their holiday promotions earlier and earlier over the
past 5 years (for most, by about 2 weeks or more)
and feel these promotions have had a notable impact
on sales.
¡	More than half of retailers plan to increase staff
during the holiday season (hourly employees
(60%) and staff specific to Internet/mobile sales
channels (54%)).
¡	The vast majority expect that their hourly staff
will either stay the same or increase (93%) in
the New Year.
¡	Overthepast5years,almost2in3retailers
(64%)saytheirholidaypromotionshavemoved
earlier(formost,byabout2weeksormore).
¡	Amongtheseretailers,nearly7in10(67%)sayit
hashadatleastafairamountofimpactonsales.
ANTICIPATED STAFF CHANGES FOR HOLIDAY SEASON AND BEYOND
5
2015 Retail Outlook
However, not everything is auspicious in the retail
industry; most retailers say they will face several
challenges in the near and long term. The majority
predict that some prominent retailers will close in
the next 1-3 years, or at least decline in value.
Specifically, brick-and-mortar-only stores are seen
as unsustainable in the future and do not represent
a viable long-term strategy, even according to many
brick-and-mortar retailers themselves. However,
many retailers (especially those with a brick-and-
mortar presence) acknowledge that the online world
is a major hurdle that will need to be overcome.
Key Threats
One-Stop Shops and New Technologies
¡	 Approximately 7 in 10 retailers
feel that the consumer appeal
and overall brand value of
prominent retailers is on the
decline, much more so than one
year ago (65% vs. 48% in 2013).
¡	Four in ten retailers with both a brick-and-
mortar and online presence (40%) view the
online world as a significant challenge to their
brand and recognize their need to adjust
accordingly.
believe one or more prominent retailers
will likely disappear in the next 1-3 years
NEARLY 3 IN 4 RETAILERS
OF RETAILERS AGREE THAT
BRICK-AND-MORTAR-ONLY STORES
WILL NOT SURVIVE IN THE FUTURE
Nearly half (45%) of brick-and-mortar-only retailers agree
58%
72%
BRICK AND MORTAR SURVIVAL
37%
21%
Retailers	
  with	
  only	
  a	
  brick-­‐and-­‐mortar	
  presence	
  will	
  not	
  
survive	
  in	
  the	
  future	
  
58 %
TOP 2 BOX
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
6
2015 Retail Outlook
Key Threats
One-Stop Shops and New Technologies
Nearly half of retailers (especially those with an
online presence) believe that the death of the
American mall is also inevitable. And rather, most
believe one-stop shops like Walmart and Target
will become the stores of the future. Along with
adjusting to new technologies, most see these
“one-stop shops” as one of the biggest threats
to their retail success.
On another challenging note, despite most retailers
feeling that they have leverage over their supply
chain, more than 4 in 10, express some concern
about the health of their supply chain going forward.
Continued
¡	According to retailers, the
two most disruptive factors
(asked in an unaided, open-
ended fashion) to the business
model include: adjusting to
new technologies (5%) and
the ability to get anything
anywhere (6%).
¡	Approximately 2 in 3
(63%) retailers, agree that
“one-stop shop” retailers,
such as Walmart or Target,
will become the stores
of the future.
¡	Most retailers (61%) agree that
they have leverage over their
supply chain.
¡	However, 4 in 10 retailers
(41%), especially online only
(53%), are at least somewhat
concerned about the viability
of their supply chain.
47% OF RETAILERS FEEL
THE DEATH OF THE AMERICAN
MALL IS INEVITABLE
especially those with an online presence
65% online and 58% combined
This perception is further supported by outside
data from the Nielsen Shopper Trend Survey 2014,
in which shoppers rated finding “everything in one
shop” as one of the five most important reasons
in deciding where to shop in 37 out of 54 markets
around the world.
Source: Nielsen’s Category Fundamentals Study 2014
FUTURE OF ONE-STOP SHOPS
AND THE AMERICAN MALL
Copyright	
  ©2014	
  The	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
29%
44%
18%
19%
The	
  death	
  of	
  the	
  American	
  mall	
  
is	
  inevitable	
  
One-­‐stop	
  shop	
  retailers	
  such	
  
as	
  Walmart	
  and	
  Target	
  will	
  
become	
  the	
  stores	
  of	
  the	
  future	
  
Somewhat	
  agree	
   Strongly	
  agree	
  
MORE	
  COMPETITION	
  –	
  BUT	
  PERHAPS	
  LESS	
  VARIETY	
  
*	
  =
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  
63%
TOP	
  2	
  BOX	
  
47%
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
7
2015 Retail Outlook
Top Priorities
Innovation, Marketing and Online/Mobile
When thinking strategically about the future, most
retailers highlight the importance of investing in new
product development, marketing, online presence
and social media. But brick-and-mortar-only retailers
and those with an online presence do not share the
exact same priorities. While both businesses plan to
focus on marketing and new products, combined and
online-only retailers emphasize both of these tactics
much more. And, brick-and-mortar-only businesses
feel that expanding their physical footprint is a much
higher priority than investing in their online presence,
mobile technology or social media. Most retailers also
speculate that U.S. consumer’s value more than ever
products that are “Made in America.”
KEY STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS
¡	Brick-and-mortar-only retailers
focus most on expanding/opening
more physical stores (36%),
marketing (35%) and new products
(43%) (in lieu of an online presence).
¡	Online-only and combined retailers
also primarily invest in marketing
(49% and 71%, respectively) and
new product development (76%
and 62%), but also concentrate on
their online presence (74% and 71%)
and social media (72% and 68%).
¡	According to the majority of
retailers (55%), U.S. consumers
care more than ever about buying
products that are exclusively
“Made in America.”
48%
NEW PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
56%
MARKETING
49%
ONLINE PRESENCE
SOCIAL
MEDIA
46%CURRENT INVESTMENTS BY RETAIL CHANNEL
Copyright	
  ©2014	
  The	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
6	
  
Among Brick And Mortar Only
Retailers
1%
11%
11%
13%
18%
21%
23%
24%
25%
35%
36%
43%
Other
Architecture and design
Mobile
Research and development
Online presence
Re-structuring store format
Merchandise or product shows
Production
Social media
Marketing
Expansion/opening of more physical stores
New products
Among Online Only
Retailers
0%
17%
44%
26%
74%
8%
8%
36%
72%
49%
33%
76%
0%
22%
48%
50%
71%
18%
38%
38%
68%
71%
43%
62%
Among Brick And Mortar And
Online Retailers
* = base size 100
CURRENT INVESTMENTS
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  7	
  
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (Among Brick and Mortar Only Retailers n=40*; Among Online Only Retailers n=65*;
Among Brick and Mortar and Online Retailers n=87*)
Q2 Where are you currently focusing your investments? Please select all that apply.
MADE IN AMERICA PRODUCTS
ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
30%15%45% 41% 14% 55%
Adams	
  says	
  that	
  
with	
  increased	
  free	
  
trade	
  and	
  global	
  
manufacturing,	
  U.S.	
  
consumers	
  care	
  
more	
  than	
  ever	
  
about	
  buying	
  
■	
  Somewhat agree ■	
  Strongly agree	
  	
  ■	
  Strongly agree ■	
  Somewhat agree
Johnson	
  says	
  that	
  
with	
  increased	
  free	
  
trade	
  and	
  global	
  
manufacturing,	
  U.S.	
  
consumers	
  care	
  
much	
  less	
  than	
  they	
  
used	
  to	
  about	
  
“MADE	
  IN	
  AMERICA”	
  RESONATES	
  (SOMEWHAT)	
  
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  7	
  
e	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
30%15%45% 41% 14% 55%
Adams	
  says	
  that	
  
with	
  increased	
  free	
  
trade	
  and	
  global	
  
manufacturing,	
  U.S.	
  
consumers	
  care	
  
more	
  than	
  ever	
  
about	
  buying	
  
products	
  that	
  are	
  
exclusively	
  “Made	
  
in	
  America.”	
  	
  
■	
  Somewhat agree ■	
  Strongly agree	
  	
  ■	
  Strongly agree ■	
  Somewhat agree
Johnson	
  says	
  that	
  
with	
  increased	
  free	
  
trade	
  and	
  global	
  
manufacturing,	
  U.S.	
  
consumers	
  care	
  
much	
  less	
  than	
  they	
  
used	
  to	
  about	
  
stores/companies	
  
carrying	
  and	
  selling	
  
products	
  that	
  are	
  
exclusively	
  “Made	
  in	
  
“MADE	
  IN	
  AMERICA”	
  RESONATES	
  (SOMEWHAT)	
  
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  7	
  
Johnson says that with
increased free trade and global
manufacturing, U.S. consumers
care much less than they used to
about stores/companies carrying
and selling products that are
exclusively “Made in America.”
Adamssaysthatwith
increasedfreetrade
and globalmanufacturing,
U.S.consumerscaremore
thaneveraboutbuying
productsthatareexclusively
“MadeinAmerica.”
8
2015 Retail Outlook
Online Channel
Growing, Supporting and Challenging
The majority of retailers believe that online and
mobile channels support—and do not erode—
brick-and-mortar channels. The two channels are
perceived as having different uses, different goals
and different benefits (convenience for online/mobile
and personal connection for brick-and-mortar).
Today, on average, retailers estimate that about 10%
of their sales are generated online, and that in 1-3
years from now, this figure will rise to 13% overall
(or a growth of 30% in the near term).
¡	Two in 3 retailers (66%) feel that online/mobile retail
channels provide a chance for consumers to browse
merchandise and/or price compare before coming to a
store to make a purchase.
	— Nearly two-thirds of brick-and-mortar-only (64%)
retailers agree with this.
¡	According to retailers (based on their customer
base), the primary use of online/mobile channels is
convenience(86% vs. 45% who say convenience is a
use for brick-and-mortar).
¡	Retailers name personal connection as the top benefit of
brick-and-mortar channel (77% vs. 37% who say personal
connection is a benefit for online/mobile).
¡	Today, only 53% of retailers say less than 10% of their
sales are generated online. In 2013, a much higher
proportion of retailers (72%) generated less than 10%
of their sales via online and mobile.*
¡	Retailers expect the online share of sales to be about
13% (on average) in the next 1-3 years.
*Due to changes in the question wording and response choices,
data cannot be trended, only general comparisons can be made.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANNELS
Copyright	
  ©2013	
  The	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
39%27%66% 20%13% 33%
Jones	
  
online	
  an
retail	
  cha
eroding
shopping	
  by
sho
physically
and	
  inte
merchan
store	
  onl
purchase	
  
■	
  Somewhat agree ■	
  Strongly agree	
  	
  ■	
  Strongly agree ■	
  Somewhat agree
Smith	
  says	
  that	
  
online	
  and	
  mobile	
  
retail	
  channels	
  are	
  
supporJng	
  in-­‐store	
  
shopping	
  by	
  
providing	
  a	
  chance	
  
for	
  consumers	
  to	
  
browse	
  
merchandise	
  and/
or	
  price	
  compare	
  
before	
  coming	
  to	
  a	
  
store	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  
purchase.	
  	
  
ONLINE	
  AND	
  MOBILE	
  SUPPORT;	
  DON’T	
  DETRACT	
  
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  8-­‐9	
  
Copyright	
  ©2013	
  The	
  Nielsen	
  Company.	
  ConfidenJal	
  and	
  proprietary.	
  
39%27%66% 20%13% 33%
Jones	
  
online	
  an
retail	
  cha
eroding
shopping	
  by
sho
physically
and	
  inte
merchan
store	
  onl
purchase	
  
■	
  Somewhat agree ■	
  Strongly agree	
  	
  ■	
  Strongly agree ■	
  Somewhat agree
Smith	
  says	
  that	
  
online	
  and	
  mobile	
  
retail	
  channels	
  are	
  
supporJng	
  in-­‐store	
  
shopping	
  by	
  
providing	
  a	
  chance	
  
for	
  consumers	
  to	
  
browse	
  
merchandise	
  and/
or	
  price	
  compare	
  
before	
  coming	
  to	
  a	
  
store	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  
purchase.	
  	
  
ONLINE	
  AND	
  MOBILE	
  SUPPORT;	
  DON’T	
  DETRACT	
  
FOR	
  SLIDES	
  8-­‐9	
  
0%
34%
14%
11%
19%
11%
12%
15%
17%
15%
21%
20%
12%
Mean
Over 20%
16-20%
11-15%
6-10%
1-5%
0%
10.4 12.8
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q14 Approximately what percentage of your company’s current
sales are generated online? And what percentage do you
anticipate in the next 1-3 years?
Today
1-3 Years
Jones says that online
and mobile retail
channels are eroding
in-store shopping by
allowing shoppers to
physically examine
and interact with
merchandise in a store
only to then purchase
it online
Smith says that online
and mobile retail
channels are supporting
in-store shopping by
providing a chance for
consumers to browse
merchandise and/or price
compare before coming
to a store to make a
purchase
% OF COMPANY’S CURRENT SALES
GENERATED VIA ONLINE
9
2015 Retail Outlook
Online Channel
Growing, Supporting and Challenging
However, despite the majority feeling that brick-and-
mortar-only stores represent an untenable future
business model, these retailers are concentrating
much less on their online strategy than combined
and online-only retailers.
Additionally, combined retailers see the online world
as a significant challenge that they need to adjust
to. Online-only retailers are less confounded by the
online world with more than 8 in 10 feeling they
are faring fairly well (either holding their own or
outperforming the competition).
Retailers (including online-only) favor by about a
3:2 margin to pass The Marketplace Fairness Act
in order to level the playing field between remote
sellers and local businesses.
Continued
with both a brick-and-mortar and on-
line presence view the online world
as a significant challenge to their
brand and recognize their need to
adjust accordingly
34% OF COMBINED RETAILERS
say their brand works well in the
online world and they are holding
their own
¡	Only 18% of brick-and-
mortar-only retailers are
currently focusing their
investments on their online
presence, compared to 74%
of online-only and 71% of
combined retailers.
¡	Twenty six percent of
combined retailers feel their
brand works well in online
world and are outperforming
the competition.
¡	Nearly 6 in 10 (56%) favor the
Marketplace Fairness Act in
order to level the playing field
between remote sellers and
local retailers.
¡	Support for the Marketplace
Fairness Act is even evident
among online-only retailers
(65%).
40% OF RETAILERS
10
2015 Retail Outlook
Mobile Edge
Perhaps Under-Exploited
Even though today only about 6% of retail sales
(on average) are generated through a mobile
channel, more than 8 in 10 retailers say that having
mobile apps represent a key advantage over the
competition.
Significant sales growth in the mobile channel is
predicted in the near term—from 6% overall today
to 9% in the next 1-3 years (an increase of 50%).
Many retailers (especially online only and combined)
view this as a clear directive to focus their energy
toward mobile. More than half of retailers (especially
online only and combined) have taken active steps
to improve their mobile technology (in particular,
improving website design, conducting email
campaigns and creating mobile apps), while about
1 in 4 brick-and-mortar-only retailers admit they have
done nothing to date.
¡	Today, on average, about 6% of retailers’ sales are generated
via mobile.
¡	Only 9% of retailers today say mobile generates over 15% of
their sales, while 26% of retailers anticipate that over 15% of
their sales will come from mobile in 1-3 years.
¡	More than 8 in 10 retailers (81%) say that retailers who have
mobile apps have an advantage over those who do not,
including 83% of brick-and-mortar-only.
¡	Over half of retailers have updated their website (56%)
or increased email campaigns (52%) to take advantage
of mobile technology.
¡	Online only and combined retailers are much more likely to
have taken steps to take advantage of mobile technology,
especially email campaigns (70%/60% vs. 48%), texting
campaigns (49%/41% vs. 32%) and new mobile applications
(53%/53% vs. 42%) than brick-and-mortar-only retailers.
¡	Twenty five percent of brick-and-mortar-only retailers have
taken no steps to improve mobile technology.
% OF COMPANY’S CURRENT SALES GENERATED
VIA MOBILE
MOBILE APP ADVANTAGE
0%
6%
20%
13%
24%
14%
23%
6%
3%
9%
25%
37%
21%
Mean
Over 20%
16-20%
11-15%
6-10%
1-5%
0%
5.9 8.9
Today
1-3 Years
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q15 Approximately what percentage of your company’s current
sales are generated through mobile? And what percentage do you
anticipate in the next 1-3 years?
43%
38%
Retailers	
  that	
  have	
  mobile	
  apps	
  have	
  an	
  advantage	
  
over	
  retailers	
  who	
  do	
  not	
  
Pa
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251)
Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
81 %
TOP 2 BOX
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
11
2015 Retail Outlook
Social Media
Less of a Hurdle
The majority of retailers recognize that social
media plays an important role in brand awareness,
promotions and customer loyalty. And, comfort and
knowledge in the social media space appears to
be on the rise from last year. In 2013, the majority
of retailers classified themselves as “beginner”
or “intermediate,” and today, the balance has
shifted, and most retailers categorize themselves
as “advanced” or “expert”. Despite this confidence,
social media still brings with it a variety of
challenges, including how to leverage it to
drive sales.
¡	Approximately 7 in 10 retailers feel social media
plays at least somewhat of an important role in
brand awareness (71%), promotions (70%) and
customer loyalty (69%).
¡	More retailers consider themselves “advanced”
(32%) or “expert” (21%) when it comes to
social media strategies, while just last year, the
majority classified themselves as “intermediate”
(42%) or “beginner” (16%).
¡	When asked what is the single greatest challenge
posed to your company by social media, “finding
ways to use social media to drive sales” was the
most cited obstacle among retailers (20%).
FOR	
  SLIDE	
  11	
  
Ambivalent: We have no significant social media strategies underway or in planning.
Beginner: We are just beginning our exploration of social media.
Intermediate: We are expanding our capabilities in social media, but are just finding our way.
Advanced: We are embracing social media and are working hard to improve our capabilities in
interacting with customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty.
Expert: We have embraced, understand and are now actively and capably interacting with our
customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty.
BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208)
Q20 (T13) Which of the following best describes the state of your company’s social media strategies?
8%
29%
42%
16%
5%
21%
32%
31%
9%
7%
2014 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGY EXPERIENCE
12
2015 Retail Outlook
Methodology
About the Harris Poll
This study was commissioned by CIT and conducted online
by Harris Poll within the United States between September
16 and October 3, 2014, among 251 financial decision makers
within the retail industry working at companies with revenue
between $5 million and $3 billion.
The data for this research study was weighted to ensure
that the data is balanced and accurately represents the
firmographics of interest to CIT. Figures for: industry, title,
functional role, decision-maker role, company ownership
structure and company location/region were weighted to
bring them into line with the respondent profile from
prior research.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use
probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources
of error which are most often not possible to quantify
or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error,
error associated with nonresponse, error associated with
question wording and response options, and post-survey
weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll
avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading.
All that can be calculated are different possible sampling
errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted,
random samples with 100% response rates. These are only
theoretical because no published polls come close to
this ideal.
Over the last 5 decades, Harris Polls have become media
staples.  With comprehensive experience and precise
technique in public opinion polling, along with a proven
track record of uncovering consumers’ motivations
and behaviors, The Harris Poll has gained strong brand
recognition around the world. The Harris Poll offers a
diverse portfolio of proprietary client solutions to transform
relevant insights into actionable foresight for a wide
range of industries including health care, technology,
public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial
services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant and consumer
packaged goods. Contact us for more information:
ConsumerInsightsNAInfo@nielsen.com.
ABOUT CIT
Founded in 1908, CIT (NYSE: CIT)
is a financial holding company with
more than $35 billion in financing
and leasing assets. It provides
financing, leasing and advisory
services to its clients and their
customers across more than 30
industries. CIT maintains leadership
positions in middle market lending,
factoring, retail and equipment
finance, as well as aerospace,
equipment and rail leasing. CIT’s
U.S. bank subsidiary CIT Bank
(Member FDIC), BankOnCIT.com,
offers a variety of savings options
designed to help customers achieve
their financial goals. www.cit.com
www.cit.com/viewfromthemiddle
To subscribe to the CIT View from
the Middle, please send an email to:
viewfromthemiddle@cit.com.
FOR PRESS INQUIRIES PLEASE CONTACT
Curt Ritter
Senior Vice President,
Corporate Communications
curt.ritter@cit.com
Matt Klein
Vice President, Media Relations
matt.klein@cit.com
FOR BUSINESS INQUIRIES PLEASE CONTACT
Dan Infanti
Senior Vice President,
Marketing and Advertising
dan.infanti@cit.com
Debbie Haeringer
Director, Content Marketing
debbie.haeringer@cit.com

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CIT Retail Industry Outlook - 2015

  • 1. 1 2015 Retail Outlook KEY HEADLINES FROM RESEARCH Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for Current and Future Finances Holiday Season Looking Up According to Most Retailers Staff Increasing for Holidays, Promotions Earlier and Earlier Top Priorities: Innovation, Marketing and Online/Mobile Key Threats: One-Stop Shops and New Technologies Online Channel Growing, Supporting and Challenging Mobile (Perhaps Under-exploited) Edge Social Media Less of a Hurdle Throughout this report there are references to subsets of the total sample (Brick-and-mortar-only, online-only and combined retailers). Due to small base sizes, findings among these subsets are more qualitative in nature. In 2014, the financial condition of retailers appears strong—and growing—with retailers having a more positive outlook on the upcoming holiday season as well as overall sales than even a year ago. Despite challenges related to technology adoption and the ability to buy anything anywhere, retailers are embracing change. They are making new investments in products, expanding their digital strategy and becoming more comfortable with social media as a tool for multiple facets of their business. In order to understand current trends, challenges and outlook for the retail industry, Harris Poll, on behalf of CIT, a leader in financing and advisory services to the retail sector, conducted research online from September 16 to October 3 among 251 financial decision makers in U.S.-based middle market retailers.
  • 2. 2 2015 Retail Outlook Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for Current and Future Finances More than 8 in 10 retailers offer a positive view of their company’s current financial situation, describing it as healthy, much more so than last year. And, the majority offer a promising forecast for 2014 sales, growing across all channels, except catalog. In fact, more than 6 in 10 retailers (especially online only) expect at least a 6% increase in total sales for 2014, up significantly from last year. However, most do not feel the same way about catalog/ phone sales (27%) Over the next year, the majority of retailers expect consumer confidence (61%) to have the most positive impact on their business. Additionally, the expected positive impact of consumer (51%) and business (47%) credit/ financing has become stronger over the past year. THEIR COMPANY’S CURRENT FINANCIAL CONDITION IS “HEALTHY” OR “VERY HEALTHY,” COMPARED TO ONLY 70% WHO FELT EQUALLY OPTIMISTIC IN 2013 80% of online-only retailers expect an increase of 6% or more, compared to 60%ofcombinedand 52% of brick-and- mortar-onlyretailers anticipate an increase in total sales of 6% or more for 2014 in 2013 vs.62%OF RETAILERS OVER 43%OF RETAILERS ONLY MOST RETAILERS BELIEVE REVENUE IS GROWING FROM MOBILE SALES 61% IN-STORE SALES 57% WEBSITE SALES 73% COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK A recent release of Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker reflects similar cautious optimism for many regions, in particular North America. Source: Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker 2014 <1% 3% 9% 11% 35% 26% 16% 0% 3% 5% 7% 23% 45% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% More than 10% 6-10% 1-5% Remain the same 1-5% 6-10% More than 10% BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208) Q5 (T13) What is your outlook for total sales in fiscal year 2014? Relative to fiscal year 2013, our company’s sales for 2014 will… COMPANY SALES OUTLOOK Decrease  Net   8%   Increase  Net   85%   Significantly  higher  than  2013  at   Significantly  lower  than  2013  at  t FOR  SLIDE  2   2014 2013 Though still a majority, brick-and-mortar-only retailers (73%) are slightly less optimistic than combined retailers (82%) or online only (81%). 82%RETAILERS SAY... OF
  • 3. 3 2015 Retail Outlook 2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK Holiday Season Looking Up According to Most Retailers Not only are retailers optimistic about sales overall, most also express confidence specifically about the upcoming holiday season. More than half of retailers (a significant jump from 2013) anticipate that total sales for the 2014 holiday season will increase by at least 6%, driven primarily by online shopping and proposed discounts. According to the Holiday Sales Forecast released from Nielsen, due to rising consumer confidence, holiday spending is predicted to increase 1.9% compared to last year. Source: Nielsen Holiday Survey 2014 Online-only and combined retailers are much more likely to feel holiday sales will increase than those who are brick-and-mortar-only (96% and 87%, respectively vs. 67%). EXPECT ONLINE SHOPPING TO HAVE THE BIGGEST INCREMENTAL IMPACT ON HOLIDAY SALES More than two in five expect in-store and online discounts (43%) to have a notable impact. ¡ Brick-and-mortar-only retailers expect the weather (54%) and fuel prices (44%) to have the most incremental impact on holiday sales whereas online only and combined retailers anticipate increases in online shopping (76% and 60%, respectively) and in-store or online discounts (66% and 56%, respectively) to be the biggest holiday sales drivers. MORE THAN HALF OF RETAILERS anticipate total sales for the 2014 holiday season to increase by 6% (or more), compared to only 1 in 3 retailers (33%) in 2013.55% 53% 1% 1% 9% 24% 33% 23% 10% 0% 1% 3% 14% 26% 36% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% More than 10% 6-10% 1-5% Remain the same 1-5% 6-10% More than 10% Decrease  (Net)   4%   Increase  Net   81%   2014 HOLIDAY SALES OUTLOOK Significantly  higher  than  2013   Significantly  lower  than  2013  a FOR  SLIDE  3   2014 2013 BASE: QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208) Q8 (T13) What is your outlook for the 2014 Holiday Season? Relative to the 2013, Holiday Season our company’s sales for 2014 will…
  • 4. 4 2015 Retail Outlook opyright  ©2014  The  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   3   Upcoming Holiday Season 5% 8% 9% 5% 4% 74% 58% 37% 41% 35% 21% 34% 54% 54% 60% Number of headquarters executives Number of in-store exempt (e.g., store managers) workers Total number of hours worked by hourly employees Number of staff devoted to Internet/mobile sales channels Total number of hourly employees Upcoming New Year, 2015 ■  Decrease      ■  About the same ■  Increase 6% 10% 11% 8% 8% 63% 54% 53% 51% 44% 31% 37% 36% 41% 49% Number of headquarters executives Number of in-store exempt (e.g., store managers) workers Total number of hours worked by hourly employees Number of staff devoted to Internet/mobile sales channels Total number of hourly employees FOR  SLIDE  4   BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q3 Thinking about the upcoming holiday season (Thanksgiving and Christmas), in terms of both hourly and exempt workers, do you expect your staff size to increase, decrease or will it remain about the same? BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q4 Starting in 2015, in terms of both hourly and exempt workers, do you expect your staff size to increase, decrease or will it remain about the same? Staff Increasing for the Holidays Promotions Earlier and Earlier Perhaps encouraged by these expectations, the majority of retailers also plan to increase their staff for the holiday season and either maintain or increase staff in the New Year. Not surprisingly due to the expected financial payoff, almost 2 in 3 retailers have been gradually moving their holiday promotions earlier and earlier over the past 5 years (for most, by about 2 weeks or more) and feel these promotions have had a notable impact on sales. ¡ More than half of retailers plan to increase staff during the holiday season (hourly employees (60%) and staff specific to Internet/mobile sales channels (54%)). ¡ The vast majority expect that their hourly staff will either stay the same or increase (93%) in the New Year. ¡ Overthepast5years,almost2in3retailers (64%)saytheirholidaypromotionshavemoved earlier(formost,byabout2weeksormore). ¡ Amongtheseretailers,nearly7in10(67%)sayit hashadatleastafairamountofimpactonsales. ANTICIPATED STAFF CHANGES FOR HOLIDAY SEASON AND BEYOND
  • 5. 5 2015 Retail Outlook However, not everything is auspicious in the retail industry; most retailers say they will face several challenges in the near and long term. The majority predict that some prominent retailers will close in the next 1-3 years, or at least decline in value. Specifically, brick-and-mortar-only stores are seen as unsustainable in the future and do not represent a viable long-term strategy, even according to many brick-and-mortar retailers themselves. However, many retailers (especially those with a brick-and- mortar presence) acknowledge that the online world is a major hurdle that will need to be overcome. Key Threats One-Stop Shops and New Technologies ¡ Approximately 7 in 10 retailers feel that the consumer appeal and overall brand value of prominent retailers is on the decline, much more so than one year ago (65% vs. 48% in 2013). ¡ Four in ten retailers with both a brick-and- mortar and online presence (40%) view the online world as a significant challenge to their brand and recognize their need to adjust accordingly. believe one or more prominent retailers will likely disappear in the next 1-3 years NEARLY 3 IN 4 RETAILERS OF RETAILERS AGREE THAT BRICK-AND-MORTAR-ONLY STORES WILL NOT SURVIVE IN THE FUTURE Nearly half (45%) of brick-and-mortar-only retailers agree 58% 72% BRICK AND MORTAR SURVIVAL 37% 21% Retailers  with  only  a  brick-­‐and-­‐mortar  presence  will  not   survive  in  the  future   58 % TOP 2 BOX BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Strongly agree Somewhat agree
  • 6. 6 2015 Retail Outlook Key Threats One-Stop Shops and New Technologies Nearly half of retailers (especially those with an online presence) believe that the death of the American mall is also inevitable. And rather, most believe one-stop shops like Walmart and Target will become the stores of the future. Along with adjusting to new technologies, most see these “one-stop shops” as one of the biggest threats to their retail success. On another challenging note, despite most retailers feeling that they have leverage over their supply chain, more than 4 in 10, express some concern about the health of their supply chain going forward. Continued ¡ According to retailers, the two most disruptive factors (asked in an unaided, open- ended fashion) to the business model include: adjusting to new technologies (5%) and the ability to get anything anywhere (6%). ¡ Approximately 2 in 3 (63%) retailers, agree that “one-stop shop” retailers, such as Walmart or Target, will become the stores of the future. ¡ Most retailers (61%) agree that they have leverage over their supply chain. ¡ However, 4 in 10 retailers (41%), especially online only (53%), are at least somewhat concerned about the viability of their supply chain. 47% OF RETAILERS FEEL THE DEATH OF THE AMERICAN MALL IS INEVITABLE especially those with an online presence 65% online and 58% combined This perception is further supported by outside data from the Nielsen Shopper Trend Survey 2014, in which shoppers rated finding “everything in one shop” as one of the five most important reasons in deciding where to shop in 37 out of 54 markets around the world. Source: Nielsen’s Category Fundamentals Study 2014 FUTURE OF ONE-STOP SHOPS AND THE AMERICAN MALL Copyright  ©2014  The  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   29% 44% 18% 19% The  death  of  the  American  mall   is  inevitable   One-­‐stop  shop  retailers  such   as  Walmart  and  Target  will   become  the  stores  of  the  future   Somewhat  agree   Strongly  agree   MORE  COMPETITION  –  BUT  PERHAPS  LESS  VARIETY   *  = FOR  SLIDES   63% TOP  2  BOX   47% BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
  • 7. 7 2015 Retail Outlook Top Priorities Innovation, Marketing and Online/Mobile When thinking strategically about the future, most retailers highlight the importance of investing in new product development, marketing, online presence and social media. But brick-and-mortar-only retailers and those with an online presence do not share the exact same priorities. While both businesses plan to focus on marketing and new products, combined and online-only retailers emphasize both of these tactics much more. And, brick-and-mortar-only businesses feel that expanding their physical footprint is a much higher priority than investing in their online presence, mobile technology or social media. Most retailers also speculate that U.S. consumer’s value more than ever products that are “Made in America.” KEY STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS ¡ Brick-and-mortar-only retailers focus most on expanding/opening more physical stores (36%), marketing (35%) and new products (43%) (in lieu of an online presence). ¡ Online-only and combined retailers also primarily invest in marketing (49% and 71%, respectively) and new product development (76% and 62%), but also concentrate on their online presence (74% and 71%) and social media (72% and 68%). ¡ According to the majority of retailers (55%), U.S. consumers care more than ever about buying products that are exclusively “Made in America.” 48% NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 56% MARKETING 49% ONLINE PRESENCE SOCIAL MEDIA 46%CURRENT INVESTMENTS BY RETAIL CHANNEL Copyright  ©2014  The  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   6   Among Brick And Mortar Only Retailers 1% 11% 11% 13% 18% 21% 23% 24% 25% 35% 36% 43% Other Architecture and design Mobile Research and development Online presence Re-structuring store format Merchandise or product shows Production Social media Marketing Expansion/opening of more physical stores New products Among Online Only Retailers 0% 17% 44% 26% 74% 8% 8% 36% 72% 49% 33% 76% 0% 22% 48% 50% 71% 18% 38% 38% 68% 71% 43% 62% Among Brick And Mortar And Online Retailers * = base size 100 CURRENT INVESTMENTS FOR  SLIDES  7   BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (Among Brick and Mortar Only Retailers n=40*; Among Online Only Retailers n=65*; Among Brick and Mortar and Online Retailers n=87*) Q2 Where are you currently focusing your investments? Please select all that apply. MADE IN AMERICA PRODUCTS ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   30%15%45% 41% 14% 55% Adams  says  that   with  increased  free   trade  and  global   manufacturing,  U.S.   consumers  care   more  than  ever   about  buying   ■  Somewhat agree ■  Strongly agree    ■  Strongly agree ■  Somewhat agree Johnson  says  that   with  increased  free   trade  and  global   manufacturing,  U.S.   consumers  care   much  less  than  they   used  to  about   “MADE  IN  AMERICA”  RESONATES  (SOMEWHAT)   FOR  SLIDES  7   e  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   30%15%45% 41% 14% 55% Adams  says  that   with  increased  free   trade  and  global   manufacturing,  U.S.   consumers  care   more  than  ever   about  buying   products  that  are   exclusively  “Made   in  America.”     ■  Somewhat agree ■  Strongly agree    ■  Strongly agree ■  Somewhat agree Johnson  says  that   with  increased  free   trade  and  global   manufacturing,  U.S.   consumers  care   much  less  than  they   used  to  about   stores/companies   carrying  and  selling   products  that  are   exclusively  “Made  in   “MADE  IN  AMERICA”  RESONATES  (SOMEWHAT)   FOR  SLIDES  7   Johnson says that with increased free trade and global manufacturing, U.S. consumers care much less than they used to about stores/companies carrying and selling products that are exclusively “Made in America.” Adamssaysthatwith increasedfreetrade and globalmanufacturing, U.S.consumerscaremore thaneveraboutbuying productsthatareexclusively “MadeinAmerica.”
  • 8. 8 2015 Retail Outlook Online Channel Growing, Supporting and Challenging The majority of retailers believe that online and mobile channels support—and do not erode— brick-and-mortar channels. The two channels are perceived as having different uses, different goals and different benefits (convenience for online/mobile and personal connection for brick-and-mortar). Today, on average, retailers estimate that about 10% of their sales are generated online, and that in 1-3 years from now, this figure will rise to 13% overall (or a growth of 30% in the near term). ¡ Two in 3 retailers (66%) feel that online/mobile retail channels provide a chance for consumers to browse merchandise and/or price compare before coming to a store to make a purchase. — Nearly two-thirds of brick-and-mortar-only (64%) retailers agree with this. ¡ According to retailers (based on their customer base), the primary use of online/mobile channels is convenience(86% vs. 45% who say convenience is a use for brick-and-mortar). ¡ Retailers name personal connection as the top benefit of brick-and-mortar channel (77% vs. 37% who say personal connection is a benefit for online/mobile). ¡ Today, only 53% of retailers say less than 10% of their sales are generated online. In 2013, a much higher proportion of retailers (72%) generated less than 10% of their sales via online and mobile.* ¡ Retailers expect the online share of sales to be about 13% (on average) in the next 1-3 years. *Due to changes in the question wording and response choices, data cannot be trended, only general comparisons can be made. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANNELS Copyright  ©2013  The  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   39%27%66% 20%13% 33% Jones   online  an retail  cha eroding shopping  by sho physically and  inte merchan store  onl purchase   ■  Somewhat agree ■  Strongly agree    ■  Strongly agree ■  Somewhat agree Smith  says  that   online  and  mobile   retail  channels  are   supporJng  in-­‐store   shopping  by   providing  a  chance   for  consumers  to   browse   merchandise  and/ or  price  compare   before  coming  to  a   store  to  make  a   purchase.     ONLINE  AND  MOBILE  SUPPORT;  DON’T  DETRACT   FOR  SLIDES  8-­‐9   Copyright  ©2013  The  Nielsen  Company.  ConfidenJal  and  proprietary.   39%27%66% 20%13% 33% Jones   online  an retail  cha eroding shopping  by sho physically and  inte merchan store  onl purchase   ■  Somewhat agree ■  Strongly agree    ■  Strongly agree ■  Somewhat agree Smith  says  that   online  and  mobile   retail  channels  are   supporJng  in-­‐store   shopping  by   providing  a  chance   for  consumers  to   browse   merchandise  and/ or  price  compare   before  coming  to  a   store  to  make  a   purchase.     ONLINE  AND  MOBILE  SUPPORT;  DON’T  DETRACT   FOR  SLIDES  8-­‐9   0% 34% 14% 11% 19% 11% 12% 15% 17% 15% 21% 20% 12% Mean Over 20% 16-20% 11-15% 6-10% 1-5% 0% 10.4 12.8 BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q14 Approximately what percentage of your company’s current sales are generated online? And what percentage do you anticipate in the next 1-3 years? Today 1-3 Years Jones says that online and mobile retail channels are eroding in-store shopping by allowing shoppers to physically examine and interact with merchandise in a store only to then purchase it online Smith says that online and mobile retail channels are supporting in-store shopping by providing a chance for consumers to browse merchandise and/or price compare before coming to a store to make a purchase % OF COMPANY’S CURRENT SALES GENERATED VIA ONLINE
  • 9. 9 2015 Retail Outlook Online Channel Growing, Supporting and Challenging However, despite the majority feeling that brick-and- mortar-only stores represent an untenable future business model, these retailers are concentrating much less on their online strategy than combined and online-only retailers. Additionally, combined retailers see the online world as a significant challenge that they need to adjust to. Online-only retailers are less confounded by the online world with more than 8 in 10 feeling they are faring fairly well (either holding their own or outperforming the competition). Retailers (including online-only) favor by about a 3:2 margin to pass The Marketplace Fairness Act in order to level the playing field between remote sellers and local businesses. Continued with both a brick-and-mortar and on- line presence view the online world as a significant challenge to their brand and recognize their need to adjust accordingly 34% OF COMBINED RETAILERS say their brand works well in the online world and they are holding their own ¡ Only 18% of brick-and- mortar-only retailers are currently focusing their investments on their online presence, compared to 74% of online-only and 71% of combined retailers. ¡ Twenty six percent of combined retailers feel their brand works well in online world and are outperforming the competition. ¡ Nearly 6 in 10 (56%) favor the Marketplace Fairness Act in order to level the playing field between remote sellers and local retailers. ¡ Support for the Marketplace Fairness Act is even evident among online-only retailers (65%). 40% OF RETAILERS
  • 10. 10 2015 Retail Outlook Mobile Edge Perhaps Under-Exploited Even though today only about 6% of retail sales (on average) are generated through a mobile channel, more than 8 in 10 retailers say that having mobile apps represent a key advantage over the competition. Significant sales growth in the mobile channel is predicted in the near term—from 6% overall today to 9% in the next 1-3 years (an increase of 50%). Many retailers (especially online only and combined) view this as a clear directive to focus their energy toward mobile. More than half of retailers (especially online only and combined) have taken active steps to improve their mobile technology (in particular, improving website design, conducting email campaigns and creating mobile apps), while about 1 in 4 brick-and-mortar-only retailers admit they have done nothing to date. ¡ Today, on average, about 6% of retailers’ sales are generated via mobile. ¡ Only 9% of retailers today say mobile generates over 15% of their sales, while 26% of retailers anticipate that over 15% of their sales will come from mobile in 1-3 years. ¡ More than 8 in 10 retailers (81%) say that retailers who have mobile apps have an advantage over those who do not, including 83% of brick-and-mortar-only. ¡ Over half of retailers have updated their website (56%) or increased email campaigns (52%) to take advantage of mobile technology. ¡ Online only and combined retailers are much more likely to have taken steps to take advantage of mobile technology, especially email campaigns (70%/60% vs. 48%), texting campaigns (49%/41% vs. 32%) and new mobile applications (53%/53% vs. 42%) than brick-and-mortar-only retailers. ¡ Twenty five percent of brick-and-mortar-only retailers have taken no steps to improve mobile technology. % OF COMPANY’S CURRENT SALES GENERATED VIA MOBILE MOBILE APP ADVANTAGE 0% 6% 20% 13% 24% 14% 23% 6% 3% 9% 25% 37% 21% Mean Over 20% 16-20% 11-15% 6-10% 1-5% 0% 5.9 8.9 Today 1-3 Years BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q15 Approximately what percentage of your company’s current sales are generated through mobile? And what percentage do you anticipate in the next 1-3 years? 43% 38% Retailers  that  have  mobile  apps  have  an  advantage   over  retailers  who  do  not   Pa BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (n=251) Q23 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 81 % TOP 2 BOX Strongly agree Somewhat agree
  • 11. 11 2015 Retail Outlook Social Media Less of a Hurdle The majority of retailers recognize that social media plays an important role in brand awareness, promotions and customer loyalty. And, comfort and knowledge in the social media space appears to be on the rise from last year. In 2013, the majority of retailers classified themselves as “beginner” or “intermediate,” and today, the balance has shifted, and most retailers categorize themselves as “advanced” or “expert”. Despite this confidence, social media still brings with it a variety of challenges, including how to leverage it to drive sales. ¡ Approximately 7 in 10 retailers feel social media plays at least somewhat of an important role in brand awareness (71%), promotions (70%) and customer loyalty (69%). ¡ More retailers consider themselves “advanced” (32%) or “expert” (21%) when it comes to social media strategies, while just last year, the majority classified themselves as “intermediate” (42%) or “beginner” (16%). ¡ When asked what is the single greatest challenge posed to your company by social media, “finding ways to use social media to drive sales” was the most cited obstacle among retailers (20%). FOR  SLIDE  11   Ambivalent: We have no significant social media strategies underway or in planning. Beginner: We are just beginning our exploration of social media. Intermediate: We are expanding our capabilities in social media, but are just finding our way. Advanced: We are embracing social media and are working hard to improve our capabilities in interacting with customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty. Expert: We have embraced, understand and are now actively and capably interacting with our customers to promote our brands and generate sales and customer loyalty. BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (2014 n=251; 2013 n=208) Q20 (T13) Which of the following best describes the state of your company’s social media strategies? 8% 29% 42% 16% 5% 21% 32% 31% 9% 7% 2014 2013 SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGY EXPERIENCE
  • 12. 12 2015 Retail Outlook Methodology About the Harris Poll This study was commissioned by CIT and conducted online by Harris Poll within the United States between September 16 and October 3, 2014, among 251 financial decision makers within the retail industry working at companies with revenue between $5 million and $3 billion. The data for this research study was weighted to ensure that the data is balanced and accurately represents the firmographics of interest to CIT. Figures for: industry, title, functional role, decision-maker role, company ownership structure and company location/region were weighted to bring them into line with the respondent profile from prior research. All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal. Over the last 5 decades, Harris Polls have become media staples.  With comprehensive experience and precise technique in public opinion polling, along with a proven track record of uncovering consumers’ motivations and behaviors, The Harris Poll has gained strong brand recognition around the world. The Harris Poll offers a diverse portfolio of proprietary client solutions to transform relevant insights into actionable foresight for a wide range of industries including health care, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant and consumer packaged goods. Contact us for more information: ConsumerInsightsNAInfo@nielsen.com. ABOUT CIT Founded in 1908, CIT (NYSE: CIT) is a financial holding company with more than $35 billion in financing and leasing assets. It provides financing, leasing and advisory services to its clients and their customers across more than 30 industries. CIT maintains leadership positions in middle market lending, factoring, retail and equipment finance, as well as aerospace, equipment and rail leasing. CIT’s U.S. bank subsidiary CIT Bank (Member FDIC), BankOnCIT.com, offers a variety of savings options designed to help customers achieve their financial goals. www.cit.com www.cit.com/viewfromthemiddle To subscribe to the CIT View from the Middle, please send an email to: viewfromthemiddle@cit.com. FOR PRESS INQUIRIES PLEASE CONTACT Curt Ritter Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications curt.ritter@cit.com Matt Klein Vice President, Media Relations matt.klein@cit.com FOR BUSINESS INQUIRIES PLEASE CONTACT Dan Infanti Senior Vice President, Marketing and Advertising dan.infanti@cit.com Debbie Haeringer Director, Content Marketing debbie.haeringer@cit.com