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CRICOS #00212K
A farmer burns his dried-up rice on a paddy field stricken by drought: Mekong
Delta (Vietnam) March 30, 2016. Reuters/Kham/File Photo
Prof Colin D Butler
Global challenges of climate change
Arctic environment, people and health – Building
bridges between research and policymakers
Univ Oulu Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research; WHO
Collaborating Centre in Global Change, Environment and Public Health
31/5/2016: Little Parliament building, Helsinki, Finland
CRICOS #00212K
Diversity of response critical to social
resilience
1st
World Conference on Changing Atmosphere
(1988) Humanity conducting .. “globally pervasive
experiment .. ultimate consequences second only
to a global nuclear war.”
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
5
A woman, who survived the typhoon (Haiyan) by climbing up a steep hill, stands
beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here,
I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said.
Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
“Nowadays, man finds himself to be a technical giant
and an ethical child.”
Cardinal Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga (Honduras; 2015)
St. Peter's 2013, hours
after Pope Benedict XVI
announced his
resignation (Filippo
Montefortef/AFP/Getty
Images)
46 Injured after lightning,
Europe May 28 2016
CRICOS #00212K
Image: Mary Anne Sexsmith-Segato/The
Canadian Press via AP
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Credits: Dave/Flickr Creative Commons/CC BY 2.0
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-web-portal-shines-beacon-on-rising-seas/#
Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Florida
CRICOS #00212K
Kevin Arrow, a volunteer with the Miami High Water Line project,
explains sea level rise to onlookers in Miami Beach, Fla.
(Courtesy Jayme Gershen/High Water Line)
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/miami-flooding-increase-over-past-decade
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Isle de Jean Charles in southeastern Louisiana. A $48 million
federal grant has been allocated to resettle its residents
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
http://m.bangkokpost.com/news/939193
Around 340,000 families have faced water shortages caused by
the drought (Mekong delta April 2016)
CRICOS #00212K
http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/?
utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed
%3A+Mashable+%28Mashable%29#T2k7Kq56bmqt
Deadly heat wave is shattering all-time records
in Southeast Asia and India
CRICOS #00212K
Drought in India, 2016
A crow drinks water from a tap on a hot day in Ahmadabad, India on April 25,
2016. Image: Ajit Solanki/AP http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/#T2k7Kq56bmqt
CRICOS #00212K
A huge well dries up due to consecutive years of droughts in Lature, India on April 11, 2016.
Image: Anshuman Poyrekar/Hindustan Times/Getty Images
http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/#WnTbPNCgomq8
CRICOS #00212K
Indian men remove dead fish and try to rescue the surviving ones from the Vastrapur Lake that
dried up due to hot weather in Ahmadabad, India on April 24, 2016.
http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/
CRICOS #00212K
Pakistani flood, April 2016
https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/pakistan-floods-latest-news
CRICOS #00212K
Pakistani flood, April 2016
https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/pakistan-floods-latest-news
World heading for catastrophe over natural
disasters, risk expert warns
With cascading crises – where one event triggers another – set to
rise, international disaster risk reduction efforts are woefully
underfunded
CRICOS #00212K
Attribution
type I and type II errors
24
CRICOS #00212K
null hypothesis: no human role
“science community too conservative .. too many authors
make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie
conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic
(human) component”
25
“Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of
extreme weather because the environment in which all storms
form has changed from human activities”
Both quotes from Trenberth in WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30.
doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
CRICOS #00212K
Oreskes & Conway (2013):
“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the
premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in
something that did not exist than not to believe in something
that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and
“type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid
type I errors at almost all costs”.
26
Type 1 error spectrum Type 2
conservative?
risky?
precautionary?
risky?
CRICOS #00212K
Two warnings
Alberta, Canada, May 2016
http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/05/06/103614158-GettyImages-528458682.1910x1000.jpg
CRICOS #00212K
ENCYCLICAL LETTER
LAUDATO SI’
OF THE HOLY FATHER
FRANCIS
ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON
HOME (24/5/2015)
CRICOS #00212K
“the most amazing technical abilities, the most
astonishing economic growth, unless they are
accompanied by authentic social and moral progress,
will definitively turn against man”
Pope Paul VI, 1970
Address to FAO on the 25th Anniversary of its Institution (16 November 1970)
CRICOS #00212K
The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating
broader global impacts on property, migration and
political stability, as well as food and water security.
… Past is not prologue … the catastrophic
norms of the future can be seen in the tail
risks of today.
Mark Carney, 2015
(Governor of the
Bank of England)
Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability.
http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx
CRICOS #00212Khttp://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-migrant-found-behind-car-engine-crossing-article-1.2345007
Photos show African migrants hidden behind car’s engine,
seats during illegal border crossing into Spain
CRICOS #00212Khttp://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-migrant-found-behind-car-engine-crossing-article-1.2345007
Photos show African migrants hidden behind car’s engine,
seats during illegal border crossing into Spain
Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for
Atmosheric Chemistry: “Climate change will significantly worsen
the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa.”
“Prolonged heatwaves and desert dust storms can render
some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to
the pressure to migrate”.
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
“Tertiary”
“Primary”
34
“Secondary”
Old location
CRICOS #00212K
Burden of
Disease
(proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,
productivity)
SECONDARY (e.g.
vector-borne diseases,
air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a
“systemic multiplier”)
famine, conflict, large-
scale migration,
economic collapse
CRICOS #00212K
Solutions
a social
vaccine
technology
academic
leadership
CRICOS #00212K
Toxicity
37
Placebo
Vaccine spectrum
Towards a solution
CRICOS #00212K
Panic, despair,
or indifference
38
“Polyanna”
“Social vaccine” spectrum
CRICOS #00212K
Solar is now cheaper than coal, says India energy minister
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/18/solar-is-now-cheaper-than-coal-says-india-energy-minister/
technology
CRICOS #00212K
40
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
“The expense may be considerable, but the
cost of doing nothing is incalculable”
Health in the Greenhouse
Editorial (Lancet, 1989)
42

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Global challenges to climate change Finnish Parliament

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Arctic Environment, People and Health seminar in Helsinki Seminar on Arctic challenges Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH) in collaboration with a Member of Parliament Tytti Tuppurainen organize a seminar: Arctic environment, people and health – Building bridges between research and policymakers in Helsinki at the Little Parliament Building 31.5.2016. Speakers include, inter alia, Former Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen, Member of Parliament Tytti Tuppurainen, Arctic Ambassador Aleksi Härkönen Professor Vladimir Kendrovski from World Heath Organization (WHO), the director of CERH and WHO collaborating Centre on Global Change, Environment and Public Health, professor Jouni Jaakkola, post doc researcher Klemetti Näkkäläjärvi from the University of Lapland, CERH researchers and representatives of stakeholders. Internationally distinguished researcher on climate change and health effects, professor Colin Butler from the University of Canberra will give video presentation. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to societies, cultures and health. Arctic region, people and societies face the diverse impacts of climate change and adaptation to the changes requires new scientific information, monitoring and prediction. Seminar brings new insights and answers, inter alia, following questions: • How climate change and health are incorporated to the Finland’s agenda for the Chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2017-2019? • What are the roles of WHO and its collaborating centres in bringing solutions to global challenges? • How climate change influences to the health and wellbeing? • What are the new research challenges that changing climate and globalization of environmental problems bring? • What challenges there are in combining scientific information to policymaking concerning climate change? • How research can promote influential and informed policymaking? Seminar creates bridges between research word, policymakers and other relevant actors. Contact: CERH director Jouni JaakkolaMember of Parliament Tytti Tuppurainen A farmer burns his dried-up rice on a paddy field stricken by drought in Soc Trang province in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam March 30, 2016. Reuters/Kham/File Photo Respected Professor Colin Butler,   University of Oulu Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research CERH and  WHO Collaborating Centre in Global Change, Environment and Public Health is organizing a seminar by invitation in collaboration with member of parliament Tytti Tuppurainen ” Arctic environment, people and health –Building bridges between research and policymakers”  Tuesday 31  May at 8.30-14.30 Finnish time in the auditorium of Little Parliament building in Helsinki.   Seminar gathers experts from different fields to discuss on the climate change and its multiple effects. Your expertise on global health and climate change   is vital for the success of the seminar. We would like to invite you to participate the seminar as a keynote speaker via skype on Global challenges of climate change (20 minutes).  The topic of the speech can be modified according to Your interest. The speech is planned to take place at 4.20 pm Australian Eastern Standard Time.   We would kindly ask You to confirm your participation as soon as possible. Contact person in practical matters is  research assistant Suvi Juntunen  [email_address].  Parts of the seminar will be videotaped and distributed in the Internet to inform the public on the outcomes of this important seminar.     We believe that the seminar will be interesting and arouses interest among researchers, policy-makers and media and establishes new networks and creates new ideas. We sincerely hope that You could participate and discuss on the future of the Arctic.     Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, MD, DSc, PhD Professor of Public Health, University of Oulu Director, Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH) Director, WHO Collaborating Centre in Global Change, Environment and Public Health Medical Faculty, P.O. Box 5000, FI-90014 University of Oulu, FINLAND Email: [email_address] www.oulu.fi/cerh  
  2. http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/is-worry-worthwhile-in-confronting-climate-change/?_r=0
  3. http://mashable.com/2016/05/04/fort-mcmurray-fire-global-warming/#83O7I4UhiSqc
  4. https://weather.com/science/environment/news/miami-flooding-increase-over-past-decade
  5. Tweeter: “Sad story, but not climate refugees. Fleeing the effects of erosion from Mississippi River flood control projects.” Isle de Jean Charles in southeastern Louisiana. A $48 million federal grant has been allocated to resettle its residents because of flooding. Credit Josh Haner/The New York Times Resettling the FirstAmerican ‘Climate Refugees’ By CORAL DAVENPORT and CAMPBELL ROBERTSON ISLE DE JEAN CHARLES, La. — Each morning at 3:30, when Joann Bourg leaves the mildewed and rusted house that her parents built on her grandfather’s property, she worries that the bridge connecting this spit of waterlogged land to Louisiana’s terra firma will again be flooded and she will miss another day’s work. Ms. Bourg, a custodian at a sporting goods store on the mainland, lives with her two sisters, 82-year-old mother, son and niece on land where her ancestors, members of the Native American tribes of southeastern Louisiana, have lived for generations. That earth is now dying, drowning in salt and sinking into the sea, and she is ready to leave. With a first-of-its-kind “climate resilience” grant to resettle the island’s native residents, Washington is ready to help. “Yes, this is our grandpa’s land,” Ms. Bourg said. “But it’s going under one way or another.” Photo From left, Marlene Autian, Laura Broussard and Joann Bourg, who are sisters, outside their home on Isle de Jean Charles last month. Their Native American family has lived on the land for generations. Credit Josh Haner/The New York Times In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced grants totaling $1 billion in 13 states to help communities adapt to climate change, by building stronger levees, dams and drainage systems. One of those grants, $48 million for Isle de Jean Charles, is something new: the first allocation of federal tax dollars to move an entire community struggling with the impacts of climate change. The divisions the effort has exposed and the logistical and moral dilemmas it has presented point up in microcosm the massive problems the world could face in the coming decades as it confronts a new category of displaced people who have become known as climate refugees. “We’re going to lose all our heritage, all our culture,” lamented Chief Albert Naquin of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, the tribe to which most Isle de Jean Charles residents belong. “It’s all going to be history.” Continue reading the main story Advertisement
  6. Mekong water crisis compounded by rice-killing drought Mekong water crisis compounded by rice-killing drought Published: 19/04/2016 at 03:43 PM Writer: Bloomberg News Two boats lie on cracked ground in a dry area in Ca Mau province, Vietnam, April 18. Vietnam is facing the most serious drought in the last 90 years, according to a statement by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Around 340,000 families have faced water shortages caused by the drought, according to media reports. (EPA photo) HANOI -- The 3.6 hectares in southern Vietnam that double as rice paddy and shrimp pond for farmer Nguyen Thi Tam have become a wasteland. After the worst drought in 90 years, almost nothing grows. Mrs Tam's family had no income for two harvests because the rice crop failed and the shrimp died. They ran up US$8,000 in debt -- more than twice her earnings in a typical year. To make ends meet, Mrs Tam plans to leave her village to work at a factory hundreds of kilometres away. Many others in the area already have fled, she said, including her daughter-in-law, who couldn't endure the poverty. "I am worried about everything," Mrs Tam, 55, said inside the thatched house in Kien Giang province she shares with her husband, three grown children and two grandchildren. "I cannot sleep." The dry spell in the once-fertile Mekong Delta is devastating food supplies in southern Vietnam and threatening to reduce global exports of rice, seafood and coffee. It is also compounding a Southeast Asia water shortage along a 4,800-kilometre river that runs from Tibet to Thailand to the South China Sea, as climate change and too many dams erode livelihoods for millions of farmers. More shortages Waters in the Mekong Delta, a network of channels that cut across vast flatlands in southern Vietnam, are at the lowest in almost a century, which may mean shortages for as much as 50% of the region this year, according to a United Nations report. That means less for irrigating crops and an increase in salt levels as more seawater seeps into the delta, causing more damage. A farmer shows dead fish and dead shrimp on his shrimp farm in Mekong delta's Bac Lieu province, Vietnam March 30. (Reuters photo) The Mekong River countries of Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar produce about 62 million tonnes of rice, or 13% of global output, US Department of Agriculture data show. The river accounts for as much as 25% of the global freshwater catch and provides livelihoods for at least 60 million people, according to the World Wildlife Fund. Vietnam exported about $3 billion of shrimp last year. Almost half of Vietnam's population of 91 million works in agriculture, which accounts for about 13% of the economy. "People in Indonesia and the Philippines will go hungry if the Thais and Vietnamese don't produce enough rice," said Richard Cronin, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. "This is a preview of the longer-term effect of development and climate change to the Mekong Delta." More dams Rice exports from Vietnam, the world's third-largest shipper, probably will drop 10% this year because of lower production, said Do Ha Nam, the chief executive officer of Intimex Group, a major Vietnam exporter of agricultural products. Rice output from the Mekong Delta fell 6.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier, reducing the country's total agricultural production by 2.7%, according to Nguyen Bich Lam, head of the General Statistics Office. The ground is cracked in a dry area in Ca Mau province, Vietnam, April 18. (EPA photo) Water from the Mekong was already under pressure before the drought, which the UN attributed to a stronger-than-normal El Nino weather pattern. China has completed six of seven major dams on the river in southern Yunnan province, Mr Cronin said. Vietnam has built dozens in the Central Highlands, which, like the Chinese and Laotian dams, deprive the Delta region of the critical sediments needed to replenish eroded soil, he said. Eleven more dams planned in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia could result in fish and farming losses of $750 million in Vietnam and $450 million in Cambodia, with extinctions for as much as 10% of fish species in the region, according a study submitted to the Mekong River Commission, a group created to mediate water disputes. Vietnam's government, which relied on rice farming to feed its population during years of dire poverty after its war with the US, needs to encourage Mekong Delta farmers to switch to more profitable crops, such as fruit trees that require less water, and raise higher-value shrimp in coastal areas, said Vo-Tong Xuan, a professor of agronomy and rector of Nam Can Tho University. Costly change It's not that easy to switch, said Nguyen Trung Kien, vice chairman of the Vietnam Food Association. Fruit trees can take years before the first harvest, he said. The drought is changing the landscape in the Mekong Delta. Along National Road 63 in coastal Kien Giang province, the soil is parched and cracked on land once soaked with water for rice paddies tended by Vietnamese in conical hats. Sugar-cane trees that should be green have yellowed. A farmer harvests dried sugarcane on her drought-stricken farm in Soc Trang province in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam March 31. (Reuters photo) "This is the first time in my 22 years of rice farming I could not grow rice," said Nguyen Van Nhin, 36, who tends nine acres in Kien Giang province behind his thatched-roof hut with wood-plank beds and mosquito nets. In Kinh 5, Nhin's village, 70% of the 281 farms produced no rice this season, said Danh Nhac, the local vice chief of the Communist Party. "The majority of the people left in the hamlet are children and people older than 45 or 50." For those who remain, it means looking for alternatives to commercial farming. Mr Nhin is trying to grow vegetables for food and looking for work as a manual labourer. "I am just waiting for the rain to return so I can grow rice again," he said.
  7. A crow drinks water from a tap on a hot day in Ahmadabad, India on April 25, 2016. Image: Ajit Solanki/AP
  8. A huge well dries up due to consecutive years of droughts in Lature, India on April 11, 2016. Image: Anshuman Poyrekar/Hindustan Times/Getty Images http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/#WnTbPNCgomq8
  9. Indian men remove dead fish and try to rescue the surviving ones from the Vastrapur Lake that dried up due to hot weather in Ahmadabad, India on April 24, 2016.
  10. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/24/world-heading-for-catastrophe-over-natural-disasters-risk-expert-warns World heading for catastrophe over natural disasters, risk expert warns With cascading crises – where one event triggers another – set to rise, international disaster risk reduction efforts are woefully underfunded Pakistanis cross a flooded street following heavy rain on the outskirts of Peshawar on 4 April 2016. Photograph: A Majeed/AFP/Getty Images Global development is supported by About this content Sam Jones @swajones Monday 25 April 2016 02.02 AEST Last modified on Thursday 28 April 2016 03.29 AEST Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Share on WhatsApp Shares 4,955 Save for later The world’s failure to prepare for natural disasters will have “inconceivably bad” consequences as climate change fuels a huge increase in catastrophic droughts and floods and the humanitarian crises that follow, the UN’s head of disaster planning has warned. Last year, earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (£47bn) of economic damage (pdf). Yet the international community spends less than half of one per cent of the global aid budget on mitigating the risks posed by such hazards. Robert Glasser, the special representative of the secretary general for disaster risk reduction, said that with the world already “falling short” in its response to humanitarian emergencies, things would only get worse as climate change adds to the pressure. Earthquake survivors left stranded in Nepal as red tape stops aid flowing Read more He said: “If you see that we’re already spending huge amounts of money and are unable to meet the humanitarian need – and then you overlay that with not just population growth … [but] you put climate change on top of that, where we’re seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, and the knock-on effects with respect to food security and conflict and new viruses like the Zika virus or whatever – you realise that the only way we’re going to be able to deal with these trends is by getting out ahead of them and focusing on reducing disaster risk.” Failure to plan properly by factoring in the effects of climate change, he added, would result in a steep rise in the vulnerability of those people already most exposed to natural hazards. He also predicted a rise in the number of simultaneous disasters. “As the odds of any one event go up, the odds of two happening at the same time are more likely. We’ll see many more examples of cascading crises, where one event triggers another event, which triggers another event.” Where is the riskiest place to live? Read more Glasser pointed to Syria, where years of protracted drought led to a massive migration of people from rural areas to cities in the run-up to the country’s civil war. While he stressed that the drought was by no means the only driver of the conflict, he said droughts around the world could have similarly destabilising effects – especially when it came to conflicts in Africa. “It’s inconceivably bad, actually, if we don’t get a handle on it, and there’s a huge sense of urgency to get this right,” he said. “I think country leaders will become more receptive to this agenda simply because the disasters are going to make that obvious. The real question in my mind is: can we act before that’s obvious and before the costs have gone up so tremendously? And that’s the challenge.”
  11. Floodwaters rush through a Pakistani market area as vendors and resident scramble to save their possessions on the outskirts of Peshawar on April 3, 2016. (A MAJEED/AFP/Getty Images)  https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/pakistan-floods-latest-news
  12. Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). "The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future." Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
  13. Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). "The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future." Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
  14. Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability. http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx accessed 21 March, 2016. 2015.
  15. Future climate projections for MENA: A dark scenario 11 May 2016 | 11:32 BST | Posted by Pakinam Amer | Category: Environment, Research Heat waves expected to be long and intolerable in the region. GETTY A new study is warning against a climate scenario that could see large populations in the Middle East and North Africa region become forcibly displaced because of extreme weather conditions. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa,” says the study’s lead researcher Jos Lelieveld of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany. “Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate.” The hot desert climate [will] intensify and become more extreme if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, states the study. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. And on average, the maximum temperature in the hottest days will rise from its current level of 43 °C to 50 °C by the end of the century. Heat waves will occur more frequently, and last significantly longer, according to the study. At present day, it’s extremely hot for an average of 16 days. But by mid-century, the number of hot days will spike, reaching 80 per year. And by the century’s end, the region will go through an 118-day-long extreme heat wave, as per Lelieveld et al. The extreme heat might also cause higher rates of premature mortality, and a range of cerebrovascular and heart diseases. Combined with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, “the environmental conditions could become intolerable,” says Lelieveld. Last October, Lelieveld and colleagues proposed another chilling vision of the Gulf countries predicting a heat wave so extreme that it could render some major cities like Dubai and Doha uninhabitable by the turn of this century. They also recently published findings that showed that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria has increased up to 70% since the beginning of this century, as a result of prolonged droughts and an increase in sand storms. The new study, published in the Springer journal Climatic Change, is an extension of Lelieveld and colleagues’ work into how different regions are affected by climate warming. In the Middle East, the unrelenting rise in global temperatures will “enhance the already hot and dry environmental conditions,” states the study, which followed efforts to improve data access and analyze climate indices in a region that has typically suffered from restricted availability of meteorological data sets. The study considers two scenarios: one that saw greenhouse gas emissions decreasing and the other (a business as usual scenario) saw no change. Under both scenarios, the heat levels in the Middle East would increase; four folds and two folds respectively. “Even if climate change in the 21st century will be limited to a global mean temperature increase of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial times, warming over land is typically stronger than over the oceans and extreme temperatures in many regions can increase well beyond 2 °C,” says the study. Sooner or later, many people will have to leave, the researchers predict.
  16. Future climate projections for MENA: A dark scenario 11 May 2016 | 11:32 BST | Posted by Pakinam Amer | Category: Environment, Research Heat waves expected to be long and intolerable in the region. GETTY A new study is warning against a climate scenario that could see large populations in the Middle East and North Africa region become forcibly displaced because of extreme weather conditions. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa,” says the study’s lead researcher Jos Lelieveld of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany. “Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate.” The hot desert climate [will] intensify and become more extreme if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, states the study. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. And on average, the maximum temperature in the hottest days will rise from its current level of 43 °C to 50 °C by the end of the century. Heat waves will occur more frequently, and last significantly longer, according to the study. At present day, it’s extremely hot for an average of 16 days. But by mid-century, the number of hot days will spike, reaching 80 per year. And by the century’s end, the region will go through an 118-day-long extreme heat wave, as per Lelieveld et al. The extreme heat might also cause higher rates of premature mortality, and a range of cerebrovascular and heart diseases. Combined with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, “the environmental conditions could become intolerable,” says Lelieveld. Last October, Lelieveld and colleagues proposed another chilling vision of the Gulf countries predicting a heat wave so extreme that it could render some major cities like Dubai and Doha uninhabitable by the turn of this century. They also recently published findings that showed that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria has increased up to 70% since the beginning of this century, as a result of prolonged droughts and an increase in sand storms. The new study, published in the Springer journal Climatic Change, is an extension of Lelieveld and colleagues’ work into how different regions are affected by climate warming. In the Middle East, the unrelenting rise in global temperatures will “enhance the already hot and dry environmental conditions,” states the study, which followed efforts to improve data access and analyze climate indices in a region that has typically suffered from restricted availability of meteorological data sets. The study considers two scenarios: one that saw greenhouse gas emissions decreasing and the other (a business as usual scenario) saw no change. Under both scenarios, the heat levels in the Middle East would increase; four folds and two folds respectively. “Even if climate change in the 21st century will be limited to a global mean temperature increase of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial times, warming over land is typically stronger than over the oceans and extreme temperatures in many regions can increase well beyond 2 °C,” says the study. Sooner or later, many people will have to leave, the researchers predict.
  17. People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format         The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office  
  18. Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.
  19. Solar is now cheaper than coal, says India energy minister http://sumo.ly/i30U via @ClimateHome Published on 18/04/2016, 3:51pm Energy minister says power realities are changing fast, predicting a fast uptake in solar energy despite concerns over baseload and storage (pic; http://www.qasolar.com/) By Ed King India is on track to soar past a goal to deploy more than 100 gigawatts of solar power by 2022 , the country’s energy minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday. Speaking at the release of a 15-point action plan for the country’s renewable sector, Goyal said he was now considering looking at “something more” for the fast growing solar sector. “I think a new coal plant would give you costlier power than a solar plant,” he said. “Of course there are challenges of 24/7 power. We accept all of that – but we have been able to come up with a solar-based long term vision that is not subsidy based.” In the past financial year, nearly 20GW of solar capacity has been approved by the government, with a further 14GW planned through 2016 according to the Union Budget. UN: China, India driving new clean energy investments Capital costs have fallen 60% in the past four years and could drop a further 40% reports Deutsche Bank, which said in a report last year solar investment would overtake coal by 2020. Solar energy prices hit a new record low in January with the auction of 420 megawatts in Rajasthan at 4.34 rupees a kilowatt-hour. In comparison coal tariffs range between 3-5 rupees/kWh. The looming bankruptcy of renewables giant Sun Edison has left many Indian investors nervous about backing solar, Bloomberg reported last week, but Goyal said the sector had a strong outlook. “If one airline goes bankrupt I don’t think people stop flying in aircraft,” he joked, insisting India had renewable energy benchmarks that are “unparalleled in the world”. Analysis: Will doubling coal tax boost India’s clean energy sector? Goyal added India was now willing to help developing countries in Asia, Africa and the Pacific to develop clean energy plans free of charge. The Delhi government would “supply expertise” to any poor country that needed help, promising it would “never charge a single rupee”. “I sincerely believe that what the West is doing in this respect is anti-development and anti the fight against climate change,” he said, accusing rich countries of charging too much for clean technology. The World Trade Organisation recently incurred the anger of the Modi government when it ruled India was illegally supporting domestic over international solar producers. Poorer nations were receiving “absolutely no support” from developed governments, said Goyal, calling for the easing of trade agreements to allow countries to accelerate green energy deployment. Report: India affirms commitment to sign Paris climate accord “India should stop following the world and now is destined to lead the world as champion for underdeveloped, clean tech and clean energy,” he said. Levels of climate finance support are an open sore between rich and poor countries, with progress towards a 2009 pledge to deliver $100 billion a year by 2020 still uncertain. A report from the OECD club of industrialised nations released last year said $62 billion was flowing to poorer nations to help develop them green their economies – a number many contest. Goyal said he hoped to win more support for an Indian-led global solar alliance when he travels to New York this week to witness the signing of the Paris Agreement on climate change. “I believe this is the single most important world agreement that is going to be executed on 22 April,” he said.