Three keys to a radically better society?

Technology, Transhumanism,
and TZM
Three keys to a radically better society?
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
David Wood
@dw2

Technology, Transhumanism,
and TZM
Three keys to a radically better world?
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
David Wood
@dw2

@dw2
Page 3
“It’s the right thing to do(?)”
Ubiquitous interconnectivity means a crisis
in the world will adversely impact everyone
Why think about the whole world?
Isn’t that naïve?
There are many risks of global crisis

@dw2
Page 4
Measuring the state of the world?
http://www.millennium-project.org/
17 annual State of the future report cards
Input from 4,500 thought leaders selected
by 50 Nodes around the world
Founded by United Nations University, 1996
The Millennium Project
30
metrics
17
improving
7
worsening
6
unclear

World
Report Card
Where are
We Winning?
http://
www.millennium-project.org/

Where are We Losing?
World
Report Card

What is Unclear or not Changing?
World
Report Card

@dw2
Page 8
“The world is improving better than most pessimists know
and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”
“People around the world are becoming healthier,
wealthier, better educated, more peaceful, increasingly
connected, and living longer.
Child mortality rate has dropped 47% since 1990, extreme
poverty in the developing world fell from 50% in 1981 to
21% in 2010, primary school completion rates grew from
81% in 1990 to 91% in 2011,
only one transborder war occurred in 2013,
nearly 40% of humanity is connected via the Internet, and
life expectancy has increased 10 years over the past 20
years to reach 70.5 years today”

@dw2
Page 9
“The world is improving better than most pessimists know
and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”
“Water tables are falling on all continents, glaciers are
melting, half the world's topsoil is destroyed,
coral reefs are dying, ocean acidity is increasing, ocean dead
zones have doubled every decade since the 1960s,
income gaps are increasingly obscene, youth
unemployment has reached dangerous proportions,
traffic jams and air pollution are strangling cities,
$1-1.6 billion is paid in bribes, organized crime gets twice
the money per year than all the military budgets combined,
intrastate conflicts and refugees are increasing,
and half the world is potentially unstable”

@dw2
Page 10
15 Global Challenges

@dw2
Page 1115 Global ChallengesHow can…
1. Sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
2. Everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance?
4. Genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight
during unprecedented accelerating change?
6. The global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
7. Ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
8. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise
enough to address its global challenges?
10. Shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction?
11. The changing status of women improve the human condition?
12. Transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises?
13. Growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
14. Scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
15. Ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

@dw2
Page 1215 Global ChallengesHow can…
1. Sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
2. Everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance?
4. Genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight
during unprecedented accelerating change?
6. The global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
7. Ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
8. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise
enough to address its global challenges?
10. Shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction?
11. The changing status of women improve the human condition?
12. Transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises?
13. Growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
14. Scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
15. Ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

1993
2013
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/
Barry Ritkoltz

@dw2
Page 16
http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium
“The next 20 years are going to make
this last 20 years just pale”
Kevin Kelly, co-Founder, Wired
“We're just at the beginning of the
beginning of all these kind of changes.
There's a sense that all the big things
have happened, but relatively speaking,
nothing big has happened yet.
In 20 years from now we'll look back
and say, ‘Well, nothing really happened
in the last 20 years’ [1994-2014]”

@dw2
Page 17
http://www.computerworld.com/slideshow/detail/143723#slide2
128MB 128GB

@dw2
Page 18
Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

@dw2
Page 19
Progress by combination
• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion
– Cheap digital storage
– Low energy screens, pleasant to look at
– High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution
– Huge catalog of books available to purchase
– Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform
+ Innovative business model
Improvements in computers:
Performance
Applicability (digitisation)

@dw2
Page 20
Computations per kWh, 1950-2010
Improvement in energy efficiency of computers
Source:
Jonathan Koomey,
Consulting Professor, Stanford
Technology Review,
9 Apr 2012
10^3 to 10^15
40 doublings over 60 years
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/
18 months average doubling
In line with “Moore’s Law”

@dw2
Page 21
www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/
(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965

@dw2
Page 22
Impact of Moore’s Law to 2025
2014
2025
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
X 2
X 2 = 4
X 2 = 8
X 2 = 16
X 2 = 32
X 2 = 64
X 2 = 128
5 times
faster
5 times
cheaper
5 times
smaller

@dw2
Page 23
Changes in the last 11 years
2003
2014
5 times
faster
5 times
cheaper
5 times
smaller
Smartphones

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor
George Church
Harvard

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor
George Church
Harvard
Positive
feedback
cycle

@dw2
Page 26
20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025?
Big Data and the
Internet of Things:
many fewer secrets
Brain scanning:
consciousness &
creativity decoded
Mind enhancing drugs
(or hardware
stimulation, e.g. tDCS)
Cryptocurrencies:
decentralised
consensus system
Nanomaterials
with super-strength &
resilience
3D fabrication, with
Atomically Precise
Manufacturing
Ubiquitous solar
energy: major
reduction of oil usage
Wearable computers,
Augmented Reality,
remote virtual avatars
Rejuvenation biotech:
Stem cell therapies,
synthetic organs
Cognitive computing
in healthcare: Most
doctors redeployed
Automated robot
workers: nurses,
soldiers…
Driverless cars,
drones: much safer,
greener transport
Credible cryonics:
mass market
suspensions
Virtual companions
more compelling than
real ones
Geoengineering
E.g. massive carbon
removal
Quantum computing:
Moore’s Law
-> Rose’s Law
Rational management
of decisions
and resources
Synthetic meat:
abolition of animal
suffering
Synthetic biology:
reprogramming DNA,
new life forms
Sanitation & nutrition:
Clean water, cities,
vaccinations…

@dw2
Page 27
“Abundance 360 and Exponential Technologies (2014)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCj7PlWRFf4
Channel: Peter Diamandis
http://abundance360summit.com/
http://singularityu.org/executive-program

@dw2
Page 28
Predicting the impact of technology
“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
“It is possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”
“Our school system will be completely changed
inside of ten years”
July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror
Thomas Alva Edison
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/
http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

@dw2
Page 29
Drawbacks to relying on technology
1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected
 E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering
2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show
 Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better
3. Technology is a two-edged sword
 Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD
4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread”
 Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”)
 Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)

@dw2
Page 30
Purchased by Facebook in April 2012
With 13 employees
And 100 million registered users
For approx $1 billion in cash and stock
Launched in October 2010 Sociable
Usable
Winner takes a larger reward
Compare Kodak
1997 valuation $30B
86,000 employees
2,000x productivity?!

@dw2
Page 31
Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014
With 55 employees
And 420 million active users
For approx $19 billion in cash & stock
Launched in March 2009 Sociable
Usable
Winner takes a larger reward

@dw2
Page 32
Productivity vs. median income
http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/

@dw2
Page 33
Technological unemployment
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/

@dw2
Page 34
Technological unemployment
http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-
and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/
“By 2025, 80% of the functions
doctors do will be done much
better and much more cheaply
by machines & algorithms”
– Vinod Khosla
“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”

@dw2
Page 35
Drawbacks to relying on technology
1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected
 E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering
2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show
 Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better
3. Technology is a two-edged sword
 Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD
4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread”
 Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”)
 Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)
5. Solutions involve value-chain cooperation, which may not occur
 Vested interests among existing marketplace winners, legislators
 E.g. struggles of electric car producers; patient-driven healthcare; oil

@dw2
Page 37
Changing mindsets
http://www.heaven-speaks.com/bayside_test_tube_babies.html
“It is an abomination in the eyes
of God for man in his arrogance
and pride to seek to create the
living being. What he is creating
is a soulless monster, a being of
destruction for all that it will
meet. I say 'it', for it is not truly
a human being but a 'thing'!”
– Our Lady, July 25, 1978
Opposition from politicians too
And from fellow scientists
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19537-test-tube-baby-pioneer-wins-medicine-nobel.html
Request for funding was denied by the UK's Medical Research Council

@dw2
Page 38
Changing mindsets
http://www.heaven-speaks.com/bayside_test_tube_babies.html
“It is an abomination in the eyes
of God for man in his arrogance
and pride to seek to create the
living being. What he is creating
is a soulless monster, a being of
destruction for all that it will
meet. I say 'it', for it is not truly
a human being but a 'thing'!”
– Our Lady, July 25, 1978
Opposition from politicians too
And from fellow scientists
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19537-test-tube-baby-pioneer-wins-medicine-nobel.html
Request for funding was denied by the UK's Medical Research Council

@dw2
Page 39
Changing mindsets (2)
• The proper role of business and finance
• The idea that humans are inherently selfish, lazy,
irredeemably competitive, and need the pressures of a
“tough love” market economy to thrive
– A thriving de-centralised “collaborative commons” exists
alongside the market economy: Wikipedia, open-source
software, voluntary sector, community self-help…
• The idea that businesses are inherently selfish,
aggrandising, short-term focused
– “Conscious capitalism” shows how businesses can be strong
forces for benefit of whole society, with multiple stakeholders
– In at least some cases
Employees
Customers
Suppliers
Community
Investors
Environment

@dw2
Page 40
Conscious capitalism?
http://www.consciouscapitalism.org/
http://www.lyndagratton.com/

@dw2
Page 41
“The business of business is business”
“There is one and only one social
responsibility of business – to use its
resources and engage in activities
designed to increase its profits”
– Milton Friedman, 1970
http://www.colorado.edu/studentgroups/libertarians/issues/friedman-soc-resp-business.html
http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/photocredit/achievers/fri0-006
“The most influential economist of the second
half of the 20th century…possibly of all of it”
– http://www.economist.com/node/8313925

@dw2
Page 42
“The dumbest idea in the world”
“Shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world”
– Jack Welch, 2009 (former CEO, GE)
http://listphobia.com/2011/12/06/top-10-business-leaders-of-the-world/
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090316_630496.htm
“Any fool can just deliver in the short term by squeezing,
squeezing, squeezing… you have to do both [short-term and long-
term]… You'll see everyone win…
“Employees will benefit from job security and better rewards.
Customers will benefit from better products or services.
Communities will benefit because successful companies and their
employees give back. And obviously, shareholders will benefit
because they can count on companies who deliver on both their
short-term commitments and long-term vision.”

@dw2
Page 43
The need for inclusivity
Capitalism is at risk of destroying itself unless bankers
realise they have an obligation to create a fairer society,
the Bank of England governor has warned...
Speaking at a City conference, the Bank’s governor warned
that there was a growing sense that the basic social
contract at the heart of capitalism was breaking down
amid rising inequality.
“We simply cannot take the capitalist system, which
produces such plenty and so many solutions, for granted.
Prosperity requires not just investment in economic
capital, but investment in social capital.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/27/capitalism-critique-bank-of-england-carney

@dw2
Page 44
The purpose of business
Purpose
At [company] we are committed to improving the quality
of life of the communities we serve. We do this by
striving for leadership and global competitiveness in the
business sectors in which we operate.
Our practice of returning to society what we earn evokes
trust among consumers, employees, shareholders and
the community. We are committed to protecting this
heritage of leadership with trust through the manner in
which we conduct our business.
http://www.tata.com/aboutus/articlesinside/Values-and-purpose
Founded 1868
Philanthropic initiatives
since 1892
Introduced 8 hour
working day in 1912
Indian Institute of Science
set up in Bangalore, 1911
Trusts receive 66%
of group profits
Isn’t that naïve?

@dw2
Page 46
Obstacles to collaboration
1. Overwhelming differences in dominant values
 E.g. if entrenched opposition to female education / “Western values”
2. Blindness to what is good for us
 Lack of awareness; cognitive biases
3. Distortions by the environment / system we live within
 Advertising raises our interests in things not actually very good for us
 “Keeping up with the Joneses”
 News stories hostile to “the enemy”
4. Lack of compelling shared positive vision
 Especially with failure of religions / philosophies
Education Peer Reviews
Transhumanism
New train of thought
TZM

@dw2
Page 47
• Looking for fundamental causes
and solutions – unwilling to
accept surface explanations
• Forceful challenges to prevailing
assumptions about markets,
business and finance
• Engaging, thought-provoking
videos (and other comms)
Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’
Pluses Questions

@dw2
Page 48Zeitgeist Day 2013, Main Event, LA, CA, USA - TZMOfficialChannel

@dw2
Page 49
• Looking for fundamental causes
and solutions – unwilling to
accept surface explanations
• Forceful challenges to prevailing
assumptions about markets,
business and finance
• Engaging, thought-provoking
videos (and other comms)
• Huge bottom-up enthusiasm
• Open to collaboration
• Needs a transition plan – a roadmap to
the future
• Money is likely to continue to exist for
the foreseeable future
• Rational resource management, for all
goods, is some way off into the future
• Over-demonising business and finance:
many TZM critiques miss the mark
• Pursuit of the “great” may miss
opportunities for “good” incremental
steps
Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’
Pluses Questions

@dw2
Page 50
Vision: Freedom to fulfil potential
“Human beings should be free…”
Free from limitations,
Free from death,
Free from gravity,
Free from biology.
https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/346391735003389953
Dmitry Itskov, closing remarks

@dw2
Page 51
The biggest killers?
Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging,
discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group
http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ
Stroke
Cancer
Heart disease
Diabetes
Pulmonary disease
HIV/AIDS
Parkinson’s
Menopause
Arthritis
Alzheimer’s
Asthma
Kidney disease
AGING

@dw2
Page 52
Stroke
Cancer
Heart disease
Diabetes
Pulmonary disease
HIV/AIDS
Parkinson’s
Menopause
ArthritisAlzheimer’s
Asthma
Kidney disease
AGING
Proteostasis
Adaptation to stress
Regeneration from stem cells
Inflammation
Macromolecular damage
Metabolism
Epigenetics and regulatory RNA
The biggest killer?
Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging,
discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group
http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ

@dw2
Page 53
Changing mindsets (3)
• Aging is natural, inevitable, and not to be challenged
• “Natural” is always good, synthetic is always bad
• You can’t do better than God
• You can’t do better than natural selection
• It’s inevitable than biological organisms grow old & die
• Society depends upon people growing old & dying
• A world with super-longevity, super-intelligence, and
super-happiness would be a kind of hell
• Such a world is at least 100 years into the future

@dw2
Page 54
“The six epochs of evolution”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNkW353QkxU
Channel: Jason Silva

@dw2
Page 55
Technology as main driver for change
 Technology acceleration
 Engineering solutions
 Scientific enquiry
 Critical thinking
 Global education
 Positive feedback networks
Transhumanism
TZM,
Social
Futurism
Positive
feedback
cycle

@dw2
Page 56
Two ways to focus improvements
Quality of life
TZM, Social futurism
Quality of life
Quality of life
TODAY
Number
of
people
Transhumanism

@dw2
Page 57
Why transhumanism?
Quality of life
 “Because it’s there”
 “Next step in global evolution”
 “Be the best that you can be”
 By being smarter, we can see more easily how to
ensure everyone can benefit
 We will have better tools than existing market
economics, tribal politics, medieval philosophies…
Quality of life
Transhumanism

@dw2
Page 58
Why TZM / Social futurism?
Quality of life
 If we fail to address the growing
social pains of inequality and
decline of opportunity…
 If we fail to avert potential imminent societal
collapses… (finance / environment / energy…)
 The societal foundations for transhumanism may
disappear We need to pursue both
Quality of life
Transhumanism

@dw2
Page 59
Setting the scene
David Wood, Mark Stevenson, Rohit Talwar
Re-designing medicine and healthcare
Maneesh Juneja, Sonia Contera,
Peter Morgan / Aubrey de Grey
Re-designing Artificial Intelligence
Calum Chace, Martin Dinov & Elias Rut
Re-designing society
Freemavens / Simon Bransfield-Garth,
Anders Sandberg, M Amon Twyman, Ben McLeish
Re-designing humanity
David Pearce, Zoltan Istvan, Natasha Vita-More,
David Levy, Andrew Vladimirov
What’s next?
Michael Nuschke, Alez Zhavoronkov,
Riva-Melissa Tez, Victor Anderson, Jerome Glenn

Three keys to a radically better society?

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