Backcasting Transformation towards smart and sustainable cities
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A presentation held in Nordic Innovation House Palo Alto by Johannes Koponen and Aleksi Neuvonen in the seminar Backcasting Transformation: Smart + Sustainable Cities in 2040.
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Backcasting Transformation towards smart and sustainable cities
- 1. Backcasting Transformation Aleksi Neuvonen and Johannes Koponen
- 3. Changing cities Positive futures Backcasting Nordic Urban Foresight Co-creational backcasting session
- 6. Cities change Cities don’t change
- 7. 2016 2040 Drone logistics Automated vehicles 3D printed buildings Augmented reality +4°C climate change Resource depletion Food scarcity Extreme inequality
- 8. 2016 2040 How can we avoid undesirable futures? How should we harness potential of technological and social innovations for making desirable futures to happen? What impact should these goals and visions have on our lifestyles and expectations on the future? Desirable Futures Possible Futures
- 9. 1. Disruptive technological opportunities are shaping cities radically 2. Yet even more important is how cities tackle wicked problems: become carbon neutral, decrease resource consumption, avoid congestion and alleviate segregation 3. This requires combination of top-down and bottom- up solutions 4. Human experience matters. Changing cities: 4 takeaways
- 11. Cities have long-term goals Cities aim to be forerunners in technology
- 12. ”We thought that the old recipes of Nokia would work also in the new world. /-/ Nokia looked at the sales of past months when we should have taken a look at what is happening in 2020.” Jorma Ollila
- 13. “Right to security, right to health, right to learning. All these three change fundamentally.” Risto Siilasmaa, Chairman of the Board, Nokia
- 14. Foresight is about alternatives •We do foresight to imagine visions of otherness (alternative futures). •If no such representations exist, there would be no actions, just reactions.“Man acts, not ‘because…’ but ‘in order to…’” (von Jhering 1914).
- 15. WHY WE DO SCENARIOS? • Scenarios help decision making by revealing possible futures. Present Image of future #1 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Possible Futures Image of future #2 Image of future #3 • Scenarios show a logical chain of events that demonstrate how future events are linked
- 16. Backcasting
- 18. Present Image of future #1 Image of future #2 Image of future #3 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 FORECASTING VIEW Scenarios Scenarios 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 EMISSIONS -40% GLOBALLY Image of future #1 Image of future #2 Image of future #3 Present BACKCASTING VIEW
- 19. Forecasting • Causality and determinism • Dominant trends • Need to adapt and survive Backcasting • Causality and intentions • Desirable futures • Need to guide transformation FORECASTING VIEW
- 21. HOW WE WORK
- 22. HOW WE WORK
- 24. Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 workshop, Helsinki Building better Tanzania 2040 workshop, Bagamoyo HOW WE WORK
- 25. 1. We need to think long term (over 10 years) 2. Business and cities need positive goals to create positive change and flourish 3. Backcasting helps to navigate beyond and with disruptive changes Positive futures and Backcasting: 3 takeaways
- 27. – A NOVEL WAY TO DEVELOP CITIES #smartcity #urban #transformation #renewal #foresight #cocreation #testing #smartups #services #energy #retrofitting #startup #walkability #nordic NORDIC CITIES BEYOND DIGITAL DISRUPTION
- 28. Home delivery Smart offices Ride sharing Low- carbon food Urban farming Shared spaces Smart metering Pop up stores Mobility-as-a- service Sharing economy Street food Repair services Smart home Gamification Geolocating Property management Crowd funding P2P commerce Neigborhood apps Co-working spaces Fab lab Free floating vehicle services Connected vehicles Crowd sourced logistics Cargo bikes E-bikes Personal data services Microwork Turnkey energy solutions Heating-as-a- service Solarenergy-as- a-service Social cooking Super small homes Co-working homes SMART MOBILITY SMART BUILDING SMART PRODUCTION
- 33. 2035 20402030202520202015 LANDSCAPE LEVEL AUSTERITY MINDSET NEW WORLD ORDER OF SOLIDARITY RENEWABLES BOOM GREEN GROWTH HIGH TRUST ON NATION STATES GREEN JOBS GLOBAL PRICE ON EMISSIONS SEARCH FOR New Growth CIRCULAR ECONOMY GLOBAL EMISSIONS HAVE DECREASED BY 50% REGIME LEVEL CLEANTECH IS DEFINED AS THE FOCUS OF HIGHER EDUCATION STRICT ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS ARE SET FOR HOMES NEW CLIMATE TREATY LAHTI ADJUSTS ITS POLICY TO THE NEW CLIMATE TREATY ENERGY SOLUTIONS BY SMARTUPS ARE BOUGHT BY LARGE CORPORATIONS SMART HOME SOLUTIONS EXPERIENCE A BOOM SUPERMARKETS ARE TURNED INTO HIGHLY AUTOMATED STORAGE SPACES RIDESHARING BECOMES PART OF THE REGIONAL/NATIONAL TRANSPORT SYSTEMLAHTI ENERGIA TAKES A LEADING ROLE IN SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCTION LAHTI CARRIES OUT MAJOR RETROFITTING AND REFURBISHING PROJECTS THE TRAMLINE IS TAKEN INTO USE LAHTI IS A VITAL AND ATTRACTIVE CARBON NEUTRAL CITY Global Deal in Lahti NICHE LEVEL LAHTI RECEIVES EU INVESTMENT/FUNDING FOR NEW CONSUMER CLEANTECH CENTRE SOLAR PANELS ARE INSTALLED ON THE ROOFTOPS OF THE CITY CENTRE. TOGETHER WITH OTHER CITIES, LAHTI REGIONAL TRANSPORT LAUNCHES A MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE APPLICATION FIRST SUPERMARKET CHAIN STARTS CROWDSOURCED HOME DELIVERY WITH A RIDESHARING START-UP A LAHTI-BASED RESEARCH CENTRE BECOMES KNOWN AS AN INTERNATIONALLY LEADING TESTBED FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2025 2030 2035 20402020
- 34. Startup testbeds
- 35. Home delivery Smart offices Ride sharing Low- carbon food Urban farming Shared spaces Smart metering Pop up stores Mobility-as-a- service Sharing economy Street food Repair services Smart home Gamification Geolocating Property management Crowd funding P2P commerce Neigborhood apps Co-working spaces Fab lab Free floating vehicle services Connected vehicles Crowd sourced logistics Cargo bikes E-bikes Personal data services Microwork Turnkey energy solutions Heating-as-a- service Solarenergy-as- a-service Social cooking Super small homes Co-working homes SMART MOBILITY SMART BUILDING SMART PRODUCTION
- 37. Nordic Urban Foresight: 4 takeaways 1. Long-term goal 2. Niche level scanning 3. Transformation of rigid factors 4. Testbed experimentation
- 38. Changing cities Positive futures Backcasting Nordic Urban Foresight Co-creational backcasting session
- 39. Co-creational backcasting session Scenarios 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 EMISSIONS -40% GLOBALLY Image of future #1 Image of future #2 Image of future #3 Present BACKCASTING VIEW
- 40. Two groups in the main hall, one in the second floor, one in the meeting room. Each of the 4 groups divides into 3 subgroups during the first task: •mobility •energy •lifestyles Divide into four groups
- 41. 2040 Mobility Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. Describe a typical daily trip she travels. What is the biggest change in mobility compared to this day? 2040 Energy Describe the energy production and use in Palo Alto in two pie charts. What is the biggest change in energy use and production by 2040? 2040 Lifestyles Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. What does she do daily (at work, home, etc.). What is the biggest change in lifestyles by 2040? Goal: -95% GHG emissions in Palo Alto 2040 10 minutes to answer in subgroups
- 42. Combine your subgroup ideas to the whole group. Write your ideas in post-its and attach them to the timeline poster. What is Palo Alto all about in 2040?
- 43. Assuming the requirements of your future timeline around 2040, what should happen already around 2026? Attach post-its to the posters. What can happen already by 2026?
- 44. Assuming the progress between 2026-2026, what should start happening already now? Attach post-its to the posters. What should start already now? 5 minutes to answer individually
- 45. Let’s compare scenarios Based on scenario what would be the single most important investment, shift in regulation or other change to promote now?
- 46. CO-CREATIONAL FUTURES PROCESS Exploration Execution Expertise & Empathy WE AIM FOR METHODS TO DO IT Delphi Desktop research Futures table and states Expert interviews Scenario writing Backcasting Policy recommen dations Presenting the scenarios Business models Visualization applyanalyzetestspeculateideate scan environmentunderstand
- 47. 1. Long-term goal 2. Niche level scanning 3. Transformation of rigid factors 4. Testbed experimentation Nordic Urban Foresight: 4 takeaways