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Future
Consumers
and Internet

Roope Mokka
Demos Helsinki

This presentation includes material
from:
Sustainable lifestyle 2050 -tutkimus
Maabrändityö
Olimme kuluttajia -skenaariotyö,
Sitra energia-ohjelman tutkimus,
Peloton tuotekehitys
Low2No esseet
Metropolialueen kilpailukyky,
Valtioneuvoston kanslian tulevaisuusselonteko,
Helsingin Energia - seuraavat 50 vuotta skenaariot.
Greater Helsinki Vision työ (2. Palkinto)
Allianz / Markku Wilenius -yhteistyö


Partners include:
Fazer -konsernin johtoryhmä
Helsingin Energian johtoryhmä,
Valtioneuvoston kanslia,
Sitran energiaohjelma,
Ympäristöklusteriohjelma,
Espoon Kaupungin johtoryhmä,
Peloton yhteistyökumppanit:
Bonnier, K-Ryhmä, S-Ryhmä, Sitra, Starkki, Puukeskus, A-Lehdet, Sub (TV),
Fazer Amica, MEK, Stora-Enso, Anton & Anton, Pöyry, Stockmann, Aalto,
Ilmastotalkoot yhteistyökumppanit
Sek, Bob Helsinki, PHS, N2, Speakers Forum, Hill&Knowlton, Drum, Avalon, VR,
Taitomylly,
Luennointi:
TEDx Amazonia, Rautakirja Consumer Day, IBM Software Day, YLE
Päällikköpäivä, IIR Kuluttajatrendit 2010, Lappeenranta Summit, Helsingin Energia      1
100 Vuotisjuhlat, Aalto-yliopisto, Sosiaali- ja terveysalan keskusliitto, Vanhus- ja
lähimmäishoidon liitto, Ortodoksinen kirkko, Kokoomuksen puoluevaltuusto,
Keskustan puoluekokous, Oranssi ry:n Valvomo-julkistus, Opetusministeriö
Koulutus 2030 seminaari, Tallinnan taideakatemia, Metsäteollisuus ry,
What important new
kind of internet users
do you foresee?
Why are they
important?
The universe is
made of stories,
not atoms.
Muriel Rukeyser
Do future consumers look like this?
Or this?
Or this?
Or this?
What is the story
of the internet?
The story of liberation
and coming together
without gatekeepers
1968-2008
The story of
segregated people,
dumming services, run
by oligopolies, leaving
the world cyber-
balkanized.
2008-2012
The story
of new revolutions.
2012-
Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”
Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
Internet is dead
Source: Wired
four new stories
 - narrative trends
1.   The   age   surplus
2.   The   age   of meaning
3.   The   age   of africa
4.   The   age   of real internet
four new stories
 - narrative trends


1. The age surplus
There will be
fundamental shifts in
use of time
time = the most
fundamental resource in
the information age.
The most
 disruptive
technology
  known
  to man




agriculture employs
    before 70%
     after 10%
In the next ten years time the global employment
  market will have 1.3 billion under 30 year olds.
     Unemployment can hit the billion mark.
who makes the iPad?
Foxconn makes the iPad
Foxconn makes electronic products for many global brands, including the iPhone and
the iPad. It is the largest exporter in Greater China and the second largest
exporter in the Czech Republic. However, despite its scale, Foxconn is still under
pressure to minimise unit costs in order to maintain profitability. Recently it has
begun relocating factories to lower-cost locations in China. (IMS Research.)
Foxconn announced plans to increase the automation in its Chinese plants. It
has about 10,000 industrial robots now but intends to have 300,000 in place by
the end of 2012 and to have one million in place by the end of 2013. (IMS
Research.)




                     A million robots
                     make the iPad
Also cognitive tasks
can be broken
down, industrialized
and outsourced.
deep automation. automation of services.


When farm jobs disappeared, we still had manufacturing jobs,
and when these disappeared we migrated to service jobs.
                                          McKinsey Quarterly, W. Brian Arthur




                       ... some cognitive
                       tasks can be
                       automated.
the whole world will be old until you die.
almost the whole world will be old until you die.
= an unforeseen
surplus of
”free”time.
"What's hard to explain is
    how, in the space of a
    generation, watching
 television became a part-
 time job for every citizen
in the developed world …
 Americans watch roughly
two hundred billion hours
    of TV every year. That
   represents about two
thousand Wikipedias'
  projects' worth of free
        time annually"


Two thousand
Wikipedias' projects = more
”content” than possible to ”consume”
four new stories
 - narrative trends


2. The age of meaning
There will be
fundamental shift from
experience to ability to
act differently
Money
 Me
Markets
          Howard Gardner




 offer
Excellence
  Ethics
Engamement
              Howard Gardner




  demand
User experience
=
Behaviour change
Why the shift?
I.e. who do we trust?


                   34
The elites?
”parties have distanced from
the lives of people” 78%
         EVAn arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2011: “Maailman paras maa”




                     Politicians?
Q: Is work central to your life?




The younger one is the less central is work   Eva 2010




                                     Work?
45%


           41%


           37%


           33%


           29%



                 1980                 1990            2000   2008




Share of single person households % (Tilastokeskus)   Family?
”...consumer trust in brands
has declined by 50%
in a decade,
down from 52% to 25%.”




      Brands?
techies             cyclists


                                                   Pyöräilijät
It’s a Peer Coup, Baby!
 Piraatit




                     you name it...
         Persut
some-                                             vegans
people
                                      prekariat
              Wii-players
Peer Coup
in a Filter
Bubble?
Internet has become
”a web of one”

Algorhytms predict what
we want by what we wanted.

Result = we will only see
things we already
knew/liked/agree

Social Segregation.
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 %
Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 %




                                        Growing:


                                       ”Tea Party”




                                       ”Urban elitists”
How are consumer
brands reacting?
New megabrands         Behaviour
are based on           change
giving us an ability
to act in a new
unique feeling         Not just
way: iPad, Google,     experience and
Facebook.              brand
                       differentations
who can?
New megabrands         I can   we can?
are based on
giving us an ability           who is we?
to act in a new
unique feeling         Wow
way: iPad, Google,
Facebook.
four new stories
 - narrative trends


3. The age of africa
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Depicts 426,000 cell phones, equal to the number
of cell phones retired in the US every day.


Globally the total number per year = 1000 000 000
They end up in ”afrika”
(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,
ungoverned, low-high-tech)
They end up in ”afrika”
(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,
ungoverned, low-high-tech)

                                           2.
the whole world will be old until you die.
not in africa though.
What does african consumer product
innovation look like?
four new stories
 - narrative trends


4. The age of real internet
Amount of users
GDP
Number of cars
iPhones
Animal protein consumption
TEDx’s seminars
Consumption of energy
Airmiles
Animal protein consumption
Base-stations
Solar panels installed base
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions




                You are here
CO2 emissions
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
a historic change




1968   1990      2010         2030   2050
a historic change




1968   1990      2010         2030   2050
a historic change



                   ??
                   ? ?
                   ?? ?
                      ? ??
                   ?? ?
                   ? ? ? ?
                   ? ? ??? ?
1968   1990      2010         2030   2050
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Cr lt
             Pho spo u ivate
                            d lan
                                 d




         r
       pe
     op
l




                                W
Oi
     C




                                 ate

                                        Na
                                    r

                                           tur
                                            gas
                                               al
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Le
        ng
          ht
             o  f li
                       ve
             W
              ea
                    lth
                       I
                       n nova
                                  s
                              tionFreed
                    om




             Ha
               pp
ine
   ss
    Lo
      ve
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
GROWTH   vs.   BELL CURVE
arvittavista kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähennyksistä.
  What changes the most?
        Asuminen


      Liikkuminen


           Ruoka


     Kuluttaminen


       Vapaa-aika


    Matkustaminen

                    0                10 %                20 %               30 %   40 %
                    Yksityisen kulutuksen päästöt Suomessa
                    Lähde: Envimat-projekti; www.ymparisto.fi/syke/envimat
The story of two new
revolutions.
2012-
The story
of new revolutions.
2012-
Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”
Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
Green tech waiting for the
PC- revolution
"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer",
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.


                                            technology does not touch
                                            people.
Green tech waiting for the
PC- revolution
"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer",
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.


                                            technology does not touch
                                            people.
Green tech waiting for the
PC- revolution
"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer",
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.


                                            technology does not touch
                                            people.
What are the services that
enable us to live in a new
way in a resource strung
world?
                 technology does not touch
                 people.
Social tech waiting for the
public / civic revolution


                  technology does not touch
                  people.
The universe is
made of stories,
not atoms.
Muriel Rukeyser

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Future Consumers & Internet - Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum

  • 1. Future Consumers and Internet Roope Mokka Demos Helsinki This presentation includes material from: Sustainable lifestyle 2050 -tutkimus Maabrändityö Olimme kuluttajia -skenaariotyö, Sitra energia-ohjelman tutkimus, Peloton tuotekehitys Low2No esseet Metropolialueen kilpailukyky, Valtioneuvoston kanslian tulevaisuusselonteko, Helsingin Energia - seuraavat 50 vuotta skenaariot. Greater Helsinki Vision työ (2. Palkinto) Allianz / Markku Wilenius -yhteistyö Partners include: Fazer -konsernin johtoryhmä Helsingin Energian johtoryhmä, Valtioneuvoston kanslia, Sitran energiaohjelma, Ympäristöklusteriohjelma, Espoon Kaupungin johtoryhmä, Peloton yhteistyökumppanit: Bonnier, K-Ryhmä, S-Ryhmä, Sitra, Starkki, Puukeskus, A-Lehdet, Sub (TV), Fazer Amica, MEK, Stora-Enso, Anton & Anton, Pöyry, Stockmann, Aalto, Ilmastotalkoot yhteistyökumppanit Sek, Bob Helsinki, PHS, N2, Speakers Forum, Hill&Knowlton, Drum, Avalon, VR, Taitomylly, Luennointi: TEDx Amazonia, Rautakirja Consumer Day, IBM Software Day, YLE Päällikköpäivä, IIR Kuluttajatrendit 2010, Lappeenranta Summit, Helsingin Energia 1 100 Vuotisjuhlat, Aalto-yliopisto, Sosiaali- ja terveysalan keskusliitto, Vanhus- ja lähimmäishoidon liitto, Ortodoksinen kirkko, Kokoomuksen puoluevaltuusto, Keskustan puoluekokous, Oranssi ry:n Valvomo-julkistus, Opetusministeriö Koulutus 2030 seminaari, Tallinnan taideakatemia, Metsäteollisuus ry,
  • 2. What important new kind of internet users do you foresee? Why are they important?
  • 3. The universe is made of stories, not atoms. Muriel Rukeyser
  • 4. Do future consumers look like this?
  • 8. What is the story of the internet?
  • 9. The story of liberation and coming together without gatekeepers 1968-2008
  • 10. The story of segregated people, dumming services, run by oligopolies, leaving the world cyber- balkanized. 2008-2012
  • 11. The story of new revolutions. 2012- Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution” Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
  • 14. four new stories - narrative trends 1. The age surplus 2. The age of meaning 3. The age of africa 4. The age of real internet
  • 15. four new stories - narrative trends 1. The age surplus
  • 16. There will be fundamental shifts in use of time
  • 17. time = the most fundamental resource in the information age.
  • 18. The most disruptive technology known to man agriculture employs before 70% after 10%
  • 19. In the next ten years time the global employment market will have 1.3 billion under 30 year olds. Unemployment can hit the billion mark.
  • 20. who makes the iPad?
  • 21. Foxconn makes the iPad Foxconn makes electronic products for many global brands, including the iPhone and the iPad. It is the largest exporter in Greater China and the second largest exporter in the Czech Republic. However, despite its scale, Foxconn is still under pressure to minimise unit costs in order to maintain profitability. Recently it has begun relocating factories to lower-cost locations in China. (IMS Research.)
  • 22. Foxconn announced plans to increase the automation in its Chinese plants. It has about 10,000 industrial robots now but intends to have 300,000 in place by the end of 2012 and to have one million in place by the end of 2013. (IMS Research.) A million robots make the iPad
  • 23. Also cognitive tasks can be broken down, industrialized and outsourced.
  • 24. deep automation. automation of services. When farm jobs disappeared, we still had manufacturing jobs, and when these disappeared we migrated to service jobs. McKinsey Quarterly, W. Brian Arthur ... some cognitive tasks can be automated.
  • 25. the whole world will be old until you die.
  • 26. almost the whole world will be old until you die.
  • 27. = an unforeseen surplus of ”free”time.
  • 28. "What's hard to explain is how, in the space of a generation, watching television became a part- time job for every citizen in the developed world … Americans watch roughly two hundred billion hours of TV every year. That represents about two thousand Wikipedias' projects' worth of free time annually" Two thousand Wikipedias' projects = more ”content” than possible to ”consume”
  • 29. four new stories - narrative trends 2. The age of meaning
  • 30. There will be fundamental shift from experience to ability to act differently
  • 31. Money Me Markets Howard Gardner offer
  • 32. Excellence Ethics Engamement Howard Gardner demand
  • 34. Why the shift? I.e. who do we trust? 34
  • 36. ”parties have distanced from the lives of people” 78% EVAn arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2011: “Maailman paras maa” Politicians?
  • 37. Q: Is work central to your life? The younger one is the less central is work Eva 2010 Work?
  • 38. 45% 41% 37% 33% 29% 1980 1990 2000 2008 Share of single person households % (Tilastokeskus) Family?
  • 39. ”...consumer trust in brands has declined by 50% in a decade, down from 52% to 25%.” Brands?
  • 40. techies cyclists Pyöräilijät It’s a Peer Coup, Baby! Piraatit you name it... Persut some- vegans people prekariat Wii-players
  • 41. Peer Coup in a Filter Bubble? Internet has become ”a web of one” Algorhytms predict what we want by what we wanted. Result = we will only see things we already knew/liked/agree Social Segregation.
  • 43. Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 % Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 % Growing: ”Tea Party” ”Urban elitists”
  • 45. New megabrands Behaviour are based on change giving us an ability to act in a new unique feeling Not just way: iPad, Google, experience and Facebook. brand differentations
  • 46. who can? New megabrands I can we can? are based on giving us an ability who is we? to act in a new unique feeling Wow way: iPad, Google, Facebook.
  • 47. four new stories - narrative trends 3. The age of africa
  • 50. Depicts 426,000 cell phones, equal to the number of cell phones retired in the US every day. Globally the total number per year = 1000 000 000
  • 51. They end up in ”afrika” (= young, urban, growing, developing, informal, ungoverned, low-high-tech)
  • 52. They end up in ”afrika” (= young, urban, growing, developing, informal, ungoverned, low-high-tech) 2.
  • 53. the whole world will be old until you die. not in africa though.
  • 54. What does african consumer product innovation look like?
  • 55. four new stories - narrative trends 4. The age of real internet
  • 57. GDP
  • 68. CO2 emissions You are here
  • 70. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 71. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 72. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 73. a historic change 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 74. a historic change 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 75. a historic change ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 77. Cr lt Pho spo u ivate d lan d r pe op l W Oi C ate Na r tur gas al
  • 79. Le ng ht o f li ve W ea lth I n nova s tionFreed om Ha pp ine ss Lo ve
  • 81. GROWTH vs. BELL CURVE
  • 82. arvittavista kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähennyksistä. What changes the most? Asuminen Liikkuminen Ruoka Kuluttaminen Vapaa-aika Matkustaminen 0 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % Yksityisen kulutuksen päästöt Suomessa Lähde: Envimat-projekti; www.ymparisto.fi/syke/envimat
  • 83. The story of two new revolutions. 2012-
  • 84. The story of new revolutions. 2012- Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution” Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
  • 85. Green tech waiting for the PC- revolution "No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer", "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  • 86. Green tech waiting for the PC- revolution "No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer", "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  • 87. Green tech waiting for the PC- revolution "No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer", "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  • 88. What are the services that enable us to live in a new way in a resource strung world? technology does not touch people.
  • 89. Social tech waiting for the public / civic revolution technology does not touch people.
  • 90. The universe is made of stories, not atoms. Muriel Rukeyser

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