This document presents four scenarios for sustainable lifestyles in Europe by 2050. The scenarios are: Pandemic Technology, Meritocracy, Endemic Technology, and Human-Centrism. They explore different social models and pathways to a sustainable society through disruptive changes in lifestyles, technologies, and policies. One scenario called "Local Loops" depicts a future where high energy and food prices lead to localized communities that share resources and rely on local production to meet needs in a sustainable way through the support of "gatekeepers" and lifestyle changes. The scenarios are tools to explore potential disruptions and evaluate experiments that could accelerate progress towards sustainability.

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From Global Champions to Local Loops:
Sustainable Lifestyles in Europe 2050
Aleksi Neuvonen
Demos Helsinki
www.demoshelsinki.fi
aleksi.neuvonen@demoshelsinki.fi
Twitter: @leksis
Satu Lähteenoja
Demos Helsinki
www.demoshelsinki.fi
satu.lahteenoja@demoshelsinki.fi
Twitter: @satulahteenoja
Rosa Groezinger
Centre on Sustainable Consumption
and Production (CSCP)
www.scp-centre.org
Rosa Groezinger@scp-centre.org

2. Demos Helsinki -
independent Think tank.
Demos Helsinki creates new markets for
resource smart consumer businesses.

3. SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050

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http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/
D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf

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Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism

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Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20502040203020202012
30 000 kg
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
8000 kg
37 years = one generation

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Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal
Elements of disruptive change
From quantitative decline in resource use
to qualitative bits of lifestyles

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Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology

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Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
price mechanism
Upcycling economy
Dense urban living
Competition
Ubiquitous technologies
Multiprofessional careers
Digital communities
3D printing consumers
Energy crises
Local resources, local technologies
Local professional clusters/guilds
Service economy
Economic crises, collapse of nation states
Local resources
Production of food and energy in large role
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities

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Structure of the scenarios

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Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism

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Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
I returned my old shoes to
the shoe store and got my
store credit returned by
doing so. I can now get
brand new shoes and I
know that it’s great for the
environment as well!
“For my husband and me, leisure means visiting one
the Local Gastronomy Guilds around, who are
reinventing new recipes from local seasonal food.”
Open kitchens promoting
local gastronomy
Food lessons
of green cooking
2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief,
pushing great numbers of logistics companies
out of the market or forcing them to sell their
operations to the few remaining large ones. As
a result, a small number of firms dominate
transport markets in many countries, which
ultimately leads to significant price increases.
!I love living in my
Danish town. We
haven’t had to worry
about buying energy in
ages. I know lots of
other towns that enjoy
the same situation.
Green doorkeepers
are a specialized
guild that controls,
monitors and ensures
the energy efficiency
of buildings and
blocks. They serve as
links between the
neighbourhoods.

13. Six-pack of most influential lifestyle triggers
1. Extremely high energy and food prices persuade people to focus their choices on local and secure
alternatives.
2. Tight workplace and neighbourhood-based communities enable and encourage people to share
spaces and equipment. The need for living space is reduced.
3. People live close to their guild peers. Ample service options mean minimal need to commute outside
the neighbourhood.
4. People prefer appliances, furniture and clothes to be sold as services. Maintenance and adaptation
services are improved and they significantly prolong the lifecycle of products.
5. Consumers can no longer make mistakes: policies built on scientifically backed environmental and
health objectives eliminate bad choices.
6. People eat out more. Better food services ensure a healthy diet, adjust portions to optimal size,
eliminate food waste and help people focus on their work and social life.
Scenario ”Local Loops”

14. Gatekeepers for lifestyle changes
Scenario ”Local Loops”

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Material footprint distribution comparison between scenarios
(total 2050 footprint 8000kg/year/capita in all scenarios)

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Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
iFuture workshops: testing
scenarios with people

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iFuture participant’s
footprint 2012-205

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...but why scenarios on sustainable lifestyles?

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1.
Alternative futures for sustainable lifestyles.
There are several pathways/social models to sustainable society.
Sustainable society should enable diversity of lifestyles.

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2.
Expanding the scope of feasible.
Normative scenarios on sustainable lifestyles help in looking beyond
current lock-ins.

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3.
Experiments are signpost towards disruptive change
Scenarios are tools for evaluating potential and routes for scaling up of
lifestyle experiments and emerging technologies.

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4.
New leverages for advancing sustainable society.
Focus of scenarios is on systemic relationships between lifestyles-
technologies-politics and how interplay of these factors could
accelerate leap towards more sustainable practices.

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Next steps:
European scenarios are a platform for city/region/
industry/company level scenarios.
Just add local characteristics, strategic goals, startups,
experimental projects, community projects....
Results: shared visions on enabling policy
environments, supportive infrastructure and
alternative business models.