This presentation describes a framework for using the free data indexed by App Annie to make an informed decision about which audience segments represent the largest opportunities in the mobile marketplace.
4. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
8. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY
WELL OR 2) HAVE MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
9.
10. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY
WELL OR HAS MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
• MAKING GAMES IS EXPENSIVE. IF YOU DEVELOP &
RELEASE THE WRONG GAME, MASSIVE LOSS.
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.
14. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
15. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
16. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
17. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?
5. WILL THEY RESPOND TO THIS GAME’S ADS?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
18. THE SOONER YOU CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THE
LESS RISK YOU BEAR!
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH
21. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
22. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
23. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
24. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
25. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
26. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
27. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
28. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Small developer with great game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Developer successfully scaling viable game
29. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING
30. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Small developer with great game
31. FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Could fill it in by hand based on intuition...
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
35. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking
for games with long lifetimes;
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
36. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking
for games with long lifetimes;
• Very likely to focus on one point in time, when in reality
we want to see the app’s trend in grossing (viability =
ability to reinvest into marketing).
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.
38. A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
39. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
A BETTER APPROACH
40. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
A BETTER APPROACH
41. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10
GROSSING!);
A BETTER APPROACH
42. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10
GROSSING!);
3.ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN GROSSING CHART.
A BETTER APPROACH
43. CAN BE TAKEN FROM FREE APP ANNIE ACCOUNT (EITHER
WRITE A SCRIPT OR HIRE AN INTERN):
• 70mb JSON file, 365 days of Top 100 charts;
• Number of apps in Top 100 Grossing (US / iPhone) in
past 365 days: 355
• Number of excluded developers: 56
• Apps classified as representing “opportunities”: 33
THE DATA
44. SCORING APPROACH:
• Use app descriptions to classify M / F (-10 to 10);
• Use app icons and screenshots to classify mass / niche
appeal;
THE DATA
45. FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Heat map based on results of analysis
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
Darkness (color) = grossing trajectory (simple linear
regression of grossing values, controlling for # of
rankings and r2);
Size = density of titles.
47. WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
Rank Position
(US / iPhone)
Top Grossing
Last 365 Days
48. PEAK GAMES
• No games in the Top 20;
• 6-person UA team (as per LinkedIn);
Didn’t get into Grossing position from brute-force
marketing but rather appeal + viable unit economics
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
50. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.
51. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.
52. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
• Invite friends;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.
53. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
• Invite friends;
• Spend money.
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.
61. WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?
62. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?
63. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?
64. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?
65. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT
a) Does our game concept capably reach that
audience? Will they click on ads?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?
66. “If you know the enemy and know
yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but
not the enemy, for every victory gained
you will also suffer a defeat. If you know
neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.”
67. “If you know YOUR AUDIENCE and know
yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred LAUNCHES. If you know yourself
but not YOUR AUDIENCE, for every RANK
gained you will also suffer CPI > LTV. If you
know neither YOUR AUDIENCE nor
yourself, you will LOSE MONEY in every
LAUNCH.”