SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 17
Kaggle
The home of data
science
GE Flight Quest 2
Optimize flight routes based
on weather & traffic
$250,000
122 teams
Hewlett Foundation: Automated Essay Scoring
Develop an automated scoring algorithm
for student-written essays
$100,000
155 teams
Allstate Purchase Prediction Challenge
Develop an automated scoring algorithm
for student-written essays
$50,000
1,570 teams
Merck Molecular Activity Challenge
Help develop safe and effective medicines
by predicting molecular activity
$40,000
236 teams
Higgs Boson Machine Learning Challenge
Use the ATLAS experiment to
identify the Higgs boson
$13,000
1,302 teams
Age Income Default
58 $95,824 True
73 $20,708 False
59 $82,152 False
66 $25,334 True
Age Income Default
73 $53,445
61 $36,679
47 $90,422
44 $79,040
Training Data Test Data
The Kaggle Approach
Mapping Dark Matter
Competition Progress
Accuracy
(lower is better)
Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 End
.0150
.0170
Martin O’Leary
PhD student in Glaciology, Cambridge U
“In less than a week, Martin O’Leary,
a PhD student in glaciology,
outperformed the state-of-the-art
algorithms”
“The world’s brightest physicists have
been working for decades on solving
one of the great unifying problems of
our universe”
Mapping Dark Matter
Competition Progress
Accuracy
(lower is better)
Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 End
.0150
.0170
Martin O’Leary
PhD student in Glaciology, Cambridge U
Marius Cobzarenco
Grad student in computer vision, UC London
Ali Haissaine & Eu Jin Loc
Signature Verification, Qatar U & Grad Student @ Deloitte
Other
deepZot (David Kirkby & Daniel Margala)
Particle Physicist & Cosmologist
We’ve worked with
many of the
world’s largest
companies
Healthcare &
Pharma
Consumer
Internet
Finance IndustrialConsumer
Marketing
Oil
& Gas
$50b+
Beverage
Co.
Global
Bank
Top
Credit
Card
Issuer
Top 5 E&P
Top 20 E&P
That submit over
100K machine
learning models
per month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
Monthly Submissions to Kaggle Competitions
There’s a
cookbook for
winning
competitions on
structured data. It
starts with
exploring the
data.
2. Create and
select features
3. Parameter
tuning and
ensembling
A second
cookbook is
emerging on
computer vision
and speech
problems. It
involves using
convolutional
neural networks.
The vast majority
of time is spent
training
algorithms when
CNNs are
applied.
There are the
problems that
land in the
middle…
Anthony Goldbloom
a@kaggle.com
650 283 9781

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Lessons from 2MM machine learning models

  • 1. Kaggle The home of data science
  • 2. GE Flight Quest 2 Optimize flight routes based on weather & traffic $250,000 122 teams Hewlett Foundation: Automated Essay Scoring Develop an automated scoring algorithm for student-written essays $100,000 155 teams Allstate Purchase Prediction Challenge Develop an automated scoring algorithm for student-written essays $50,000 1,570 teams Merck Molecular Activity Challenge Help develop safe and effective medicines by predicting molecular activity $40,000 236 teams Higgs Boson Machine Learning Challenge Use the ATLAS experiment to identify the Higgs boson $13,000 1,302 teams
  • 3. Age Income Default 58 $95,824 True 73 $20,708 False 59 $82,152 False 66 $25,334 True Age Income Default 73 $53,445 61 $36,679 47 $90,422 44 $79,040 Training Data Test Data The Kaggle Approach
  • 4.
  • 5. Mapping Dark Matter Competition Progress Accuracy (lower is better) Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 End .0150 .0170 Martin O’Leary PhD student in Glaciology, Cambridge U
  • 6. “In less than a week, Martin O’Leary, a PhD student in glaciology, outperformed the state-of-the-art algorithms” “The world’s brightest physicists have been working for decades on solving one of the great unifying problems of our universe”
  • 7. Mapping Dark Matter Competition Progress Accuracy (lower is better) Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 End .0150 .0170 Martin O’Leary PhD student in Glaciology, Cambridge U Marius Cobzarenco Grad student in computer vision, UC London Ali Haissaine & Eu Jin Loc Signature Verification, Qatar U & Grad Student @ Deloitte Other deepZot (David Kirkby & Daniel Margala) Particle Physicist & Cosmologist
  • 8. We’ve worked with many of the world’s largest companies Healthcare & Pharma Consumer Internet Finance IndustrialConsumer Marketing Oil & Gas $50b+ Beverage Co. Global Bank Top Credit Card Issuer Top 5 E&P Top 20 E&P
  • 9.
  • 10. That submit over 100K machine learning models per month 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 Monthly Submissions to Kaggle Competitions
  • 11. There’s a cookbook for winning competitions on structured data. It starts with exploring the data.
  • 14. A second cookbook is emerging on computer vision and speech problems. It involves using convolutional neural networks.
  • 15. The vast majority of time is spent training algorithms when CNNs are applied.
  • 16. There are the problems that land in the middle…

Editor's Notes

  1. People currently come to Kaggle
  2. We score their solutions in real time.
  3. People don’t come to us with churn or cross sell, but they typically come to us with their hardest problems, and I’ll talk more about this soon. It’s for these reasons that we continue to invest in the competition platform. It’s a very efficient operation. It’s currently running with a headcount of 4. We believe 6 is the right long term number of people to invest in competitions. We decided to focus on Oil & Gas because after working with ~25 Fortune 500s and 12 industries, we believe it’s the biggest opportunity for machine learning and most ripe for disruption. Specifically because: Greatest value add: Huge gap between what they’re doing and what’s possible Shale is disruptive: the industry is looking for new ideas making it a good environment to be selling into.
  4. We score their solutions in real time.
  5. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  6. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  7. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  8. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  9. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  10. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media
  11. Kaggle Competitions – breakeven business Access to most advanced and proven techniques Recruiting the very best of a scarce resource C-level access from leadership positioning in media