Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics - ITIC Venice November 2014
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Global Expatriates: Size, Segmentation and Forecast for the Worldwide Market is a report and interactive ExpatriateBASE™ dataset that is related to this presentation. It provides an overview of the size and segmentation of the global expatriate population. Including data rounded up for the world as a whole, this is based primarily on a detailed analysis for 30 inbound and 25 outbound countries, selected on the basis of their economic importance and significance in the context of the expatriate market. In particular, the research specifies the total number of expatriates resident in the inbound countries and originating from the outbound countries for the years 2009, 2013 and 2017, and segments this further by purpose between five standardised categories, namely individual workers, corporate transferees, students, retired expatriates, and 'other' expatriates (defined as non-employed spouses and children). Inbound countries researched (i.e. destination countries for expatriates) are Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Oman, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the UAE, the UK and the US. Outbound countries researched (i.e. expatriate countries of origin) are Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the UK and the US. Furthermore, in addition to the 25 core outbound countries that were researched for each of the 30 inbound countries, the report also establishes the same data for other important country-specific expatriate groups (e.g. the number of Algerian, Indonesian and Mexican expatriates residing, respectively, in France, Hong Kong and the US). You may be able to use this report and the interactive ExpatriateBASE™ dataset that accompanies it in one or more of the following ways: - gain access to a single source of information that provides a comprehensive and standardised overview of the worldwide expatriate market; - understand which are the largest expatriate segments by inbound and outbound country, which have been growing most rapidly and which are forecast to increase most strongly in future; - appreciate the size of the opportunity for promoting products and services to expatriate groups in each of 30 inbound countries as defined by country of origin; - adjust your approach to marketing to expatriates leaving particular outbound countries in the light of the reliable data about the destinations to which they are migrating; - develop a strategy for targeting expatriates with the knowledge of how their number will evolve by category, by inbound country and by outbound country up to 2017.
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Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics - ITIC Venice November 2014
- 1. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Global Trends in Expatriate Bancassurance Models Demographics Around the World Presentation at the ITIC Venice, 10th – 13th November 2014 © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 1
- 2. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Agenda What is an expatriate? Definition and categorisation problems Overview of the global expatriate structure Inbound countries Key developments © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 2
- 3. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Definitions and categorisation: What is an expatriate? Expatriate ? 1) Means of data collection 2) Underlying criteria 1) Governments 2) Lobby groups 3) Businesses Availability of data Purpose of interest Need for standardised data © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 3
- 4. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Definitions and categorisation: Finaccord's definition Expatriates are individuals who establish their residence in the territory of another country for a temporary period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months and a maximum of five years, having previously been resident in another country This excludes: 1) Illegal immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers 2) Tourists, individuals arriving for short-term medical stays and short-term exchange students 3) Expatriate residents that have stayed longer than five consecutive years in the country of destination as most will have 'gone native' © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 4
- 5. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Definitions and categorisation: Finaccord's categories 1) Individual workers: individuals entering a country of destination for the purpose of working but not who are not being transferred within an international company 2) Corporate transferees: individuals entering a country on a company posting who have already worked for the same company in another country and who have been transferred within the company to the country of destination on a temporary basis 3) Students: individuals that enter the country of destination with the main purpose of pursuing a full-time degree in tertiary education 4) Retired expatriates: individuals entering a country of destination after retirement to spend most of the year in that country 5) Other expatriates: dependents (spouses or children) of individual workers, corporate transferees and students who do not work or study in the country of destination © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 5
- 6. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Overview of the structure of the global expatriate market Total worldwide expatriate population, segmented by purpose, 2013 Retired, 3.7% Students, 8.8% Corporate transferees, Source: Finaccord Total: 50.5 million Individual workers, 73.6% 1.0% Other, 12.8% © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 6
- 7. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Overview of the structure of the global expatriate market Total worldwide expatriate population, segmented by purpose, 2009 and 2013 with forecast to 2017 Source: Finaccord million 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Individual workers Corporate transferees Students Retired Other trigger 46.0 50.5 56.8 2009 2013 2017 © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 7
- 8. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Overview of the structure of the global expatriate market Total worldwide expatriate population, segmented by purpose, 2013 CAGR 2009 to 2013 CAGR 2013 to 2017 (forecast) Corporate transferees Source: Finaccord 2.6% -2.8% 3.1% 2.8% 3.7% -0.6% 2.9% 1.6% 3.6% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% Individual workers Students Retired Other Total -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 8
- 9. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Overview of the structure of the global expatriate market Size of worldwide expatriate population relative to worldwide population and worldwide immigrant population, 2009 and 2013 with forecast to 2017 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Finaccord trigger Expatriate population as % of worldwide population Expatriate population as % of worldwide immigrant population trigger 21.2% 21.8% 23.4% 0.68% 0.72% 0.77% 2009 2013 2017 © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 9
- 10. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics List of inbound and outbound countries analysed Inbound countries: Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Oman, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, UAE, UK, US Represent 81.3% of worldwide total Source: Finaccord © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 10
- 11. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Size of expatriate population, top three inbound countries, 2013 Saudi Arabia, 8,918 UAE, 5,406 US, 4,789 other, 31,412 Source: Finaccord chart labels in 000s © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 11
- 12. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Size of expatriate population as a percentage of the total national population, 2013 (examples) Qatar China Source: Finaccord 70.88% 1.87% 0.04% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% UK © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 12
- 13. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Individual worker expatriates as percentage of total expatriate population, 2013 (examples) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Source: Finaccord 88.8% 68.8% 46.4% 0% Bahrain Average UK © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 13
- 14. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Corporate transferees as percentage of total expatriate population, 2013 (examples) 10% Source: Finaccord 5.1% 1.3% 0.2% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% UK Average Russia © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 14
- 15. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Student expatriate population as percentage of total expatriate population, 2013 (examples) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: Finaccord 38.4% 11.9% 0.1% 0% UK Average Kuwait © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 15
- 16. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Inbound countries Retired expatriate population as percentage of total expatriate population, 2013 (examples) 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Finaccord 20.1% 3.7% 0.5% Spain Average Oman © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 16
- 17. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Key developments Relationship between economic growth and growth of the expatriate population (examples) GDP growth 2009 to 2013 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: Finaccord Qatar Brazil Italy Portugal Russia South Africa Spain -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Growth of total expatriate population 2009 to 2013 © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 17
- 18. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Key developments Relationship between politics and growth of the expatriate population (examples) Source: Finaccord CAGR 2009 to 2013 CAGR 2013 to 2017 (forecast) Kuwait Saudi Arabia South Korea UK -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Oman © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 18
- 19. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Key developments Other main drivers for expatriate demographics Rapidly ageing populations in many developed countries Continuing demand for skilled and unskilled labour An increasing number of free movement agreements Continuing demand for international experience Companies in rapidly growing economies seeking for new markets © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 19
- 20. Global Trends in Expatriate Demographics Any questions? Related Finaccord report: Global Expatriates: Size, Segmentation and Forecast for the Worldwide Market © Finaccord Ltd., 2014 Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 20
Notes de l'éditeur
- 1) Thanking for the invitation 2) How long will it take 3) Happy to answer questions afterwards
- Go quickly through the agenda:
- Data availability, quality and underlying criteria concerning immigration and emigration vary considerably across countries and this causes significant problems when trying to make international comparisons. Means of data collection: 1) Population registers yields inflow and outflow data for both nationals and foreigners 2) residence and / or work permits, statistics are generally based on the number of permits issued during a given period and depend on the type of permits used 3) survey of passengers (UK), 4) Census data 5) Contacting embassies in countries where no data is published Underlying criteria: For instance, in some countries foreign population register data covers all migrants staying for more than three months, whilst in others the minimum duration for individuals to be registered is one year. In addition, in a number of the countries researched, authorities were found not to provide any statistical information at all about the number or nationality of immigrants or emigrants. Finaccord has taken all of these inconsistencies into account in order to present data about expatriates in a uniform format. Government: Care about all citizens with a passport from the country (example of Brits in Australia in order to pay retirement) Lobby groups: define the size as opportune to their purpose (anti-immigration etc) Businesses: are only interested in expats to whom they can sell certain specifically designed products (length and purpose of stay)
- Maybe a point to start small discussion
- Individual: category does not only include expatriates already in employment but also expatriates seeking employment (EU example). Excludes dependents Students: does not account for exchange students (including students enrolled in the European Erasmus Program), language class students or other short-term students not pursuing a full university degree. Retired: includes so-called 'snowbirds' who spend five or more months each year in the country; not composed solely of wealthy pensioners choosing to spend their retirement abroad but also retired individuals that arrive at an inbound country with a family visa. It has become common practice in many countries for immigrants who have established a permanent residence status to sponsor their parents and, in many countries, this so-called family migration constitutes one of the major sources of new immigrants.
- Total worldwide explain.
- Talk about how economic trends influence these categories!
- Explain what it what. For inbound countries, Finaccord has also looked at other top countries of destinations.
- Mention that not all countries were analysed!!
- Qatar has one of the highest ratios of migrant workers to domestic population in the world and the country's economy is highly dependent on the inflow of foreign labour. As reported by Qatari government statistics, immigrants make up as many as 94% of Qatar's workforce and over 70% of its total population
- Mention that there are great differences between countries in terms of purpose of stay: Individual workers in Middle Eastern countries Students very important for UK and the US Retired people vert large in Australia and Spain (though declining)
- Mention that there are great differences between countries in terms of purpose of stay: Individual workers in Middle Eastern countries Students very important for UK and the US Retired people vert large in Australia and Spain (though declining)
- Mention that there are great differences between countries in terms of purpose of stay: Individual workers in Middle Eastern countries Students very important for UK and the US Retired people vert large in Australia and Spain (though declining)
- Mention that there are great differences between countries in terms of purpose of stay: Individual workers in Middle Eastern countries Students very important for UK and the US Retired people vert large in Australia and Spain (though declining)
- Note straight forward relationship! As the host of the FIFA World Cup in 2022, Quatar is expected that the country will need to recruit up to 1.5 million more individual workers – mainly from south-east Asia – to build the stadia, roads, ports and hotels needed for the tournament. According to provisional estimates, Qatar will spend around USD 100 billion on infrastructure projects to support the World Cup. Spain: Especially retired expatriates, but also weak economic growth attracts less foreign workers, only the number of students coming has increased France: also politics: While France is keen on attracting skilled labour from abroad, the government has introduced annual deportation quotas, accepts fewer asylum seekers, and has changed the process of family immigration in recent years. For example, in March 2013, the French government introduced significant changes in the country’s migration policy. One of the main provisions of the new immigration rules was the reduction of unemployment benefits for immigrants.
- Kuwait: In early 2013 the government of Kuwait announced plans to cut the number of expatriates by 100,000 annually over the following ten years. Since then, Kuwaiti authorities have, in a controversial move, rolled out a pilot project to reserve morning hours for Kuwaitis only at public health clinics albeit the plan would not affect the private hospitals frequented by wealthier expatriates. The authorities have also tightened their already strict controls on foreign drivers by withdrawing licences from students and housewives. Oman: Since the beginning of 2013, the Omani government has revised its policies as regards foreign workers as it looks to break its dependence on expatriates and create more jobs for the local population. For example, in September 2013, the Omani government introduced new immigration rules which restrict expatriates earning a monthly income of less than OMR 600 (approximately USD 1,500) from acquiring a family visa. Moreover, those on family visas will not be permitted to take up employment Saudi Arabia: Imposed a new system of quotas in 2012 that stipulated how many employees in particular types of position should be Saudi nationals. It is estimated that more than 1.5 million foreign workers have changed their residence status since April 2013. Under Saudi law, foreigners must be sponsored by their employer and must work only in the field registered on their residence papers. However, in practice, many work for other companies and in different jobs. The consequences of the kingdom’s crackdown have been noteworthy. Many local businesses, unable to afford the higher wages native Saudis demand, have shut down. Nearly half of the country’s small construction firms have halted projects due to a lack of workers. Moreover, up to 20,000 schools were without janitors, according to the state-based Saudi Gazette. South Korea: The system’s design prevents workers from putting down roots and nearly all are prevented from inviting their spouse or children to join them, for example. The maximum permitted stay is two separate stints each lasting four years and ten months, meaning that workers cannot apply for permanent residency, which requires applicants to live in South Korea for at least five years. As such, South Korea still operates a very restrictive immigration system where most immigrants are not eligible for citizenship or even permanent residency, unless they are married to a South Korean citizen or have invested more than USD 5 million in the local economy. UK: In 2012, the UK government introduced changes in visa rules for non-EU students, which restrict the ease with which students can stay on in the UK after their studies. The post-study work visa which had earlier allowed students to stay on for a further two years to find work was scrapped