The Future of Mobility in 2024
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James O'Brien, Customer Experience Architect at Leaseplan
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The Future of Mobility in 2024
- 1. THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY HOW WE’LL MOVE IN 2024
- 2. MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS FROM PLACE TO PLACE
- 3. METHODOLOGY
- 5. MAJOR THEMES • • • • • The Environment Rising Costs The Second Billion Devices and Connectivity Materials and Manufacturing
- 7. THE ENVIRONMENT “Curbing mobility is not an option” - EU Transport 2050 white paper
- 8. THE ENVIRONMENT ENERGY DENSITY Hydrogen 5.6 MJ/Litre Petrol 26 MJ/Litre Li-ion Battery 2.6 MJ/Litre (typical)
- 9. THE ENVIRONMENT BEV SHIFT The sweet spot?
- 10. THE ENVIRONMENT BEV SHIFT 15% By 2020, BMW expects of its sales to be BEVs or EREVs
- 11. THE ENVIRONMENT NICHE, BUT GREAT PR
- 12. THE ENVIRONMENT SOLUTIONS FOR AN EV FLEET •Manage Fleet Charging •Rotate Fleet to Optimise Battery Wear •Calculate and Manage Fleet Liquidity •Smart Route Planning •Recover Exhausted Vehicles •Volume Deals on Electricity and Charging Infrastructure
- 13. RISING COSTS
- 14. RISING COSTS “The less successful the world is in decarbonising, the greater will be the oil price increase” - EU Transport 2050 white paper
- 16. RISING COSTS MAINSTREAMING OF EVs MEANS FEWER DISCOUNTS Nissan Insider
- 19. RISING COSTS TIME IS MONEY •Abstract away the admin overhead of dealing with these disparate bills •Make a single, predictable payment rather than maintain many relationships •Develop new finance products that help manage the tax burden •Give you the simplicity and transparency you need to manage your fleet with confidence
- 21. THE SECOND BILLION WHERE WILL THEY COME FROM? Brazil Russia India China
- 22. THE SECOND BILLION WHERE WILL THEY COME FROM?
- 23. THE SECOND BILLION THE CHINESE MARKET A.T Kearney
- 24. THE SECOND BILLION THE CHINESE MARKET
- 27. THE SECOND BILLION SMART CITIES THAT LEARN, ADAPT AND OPTIMISE
- 28. THE SECOND BILLION WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR LEASING? •New products to lease, new niches to lease into •Cities that optimise traffic flow and vehicles that take advantage of those optimisations for battery, time and maintenance gains •Mobility means multi-modality, and a leasing provider can offer more flexibility •If you’re doing business in these countries, you’ll want a local mobility provider who knows your needs
- 31. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY “General-purpose computers have replaced every other device in our world… There are no cars, only computers we sit in.” - Cory Doctorow
- 32. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY THE CAR BECOMES A FOURTH SPACE FOR COMPUTING
- 33. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY IT’S ALL ABOUT THE APPS • Open Auto Alliance launched at CES 2014 • Google, Audi, Honda, Hyundai, Nvidia… and everyone’s welcome to join
- 34. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY TECH YOU DON’T TOUCH
- 35. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY EXPERIENTIAL TECHNOLOGY
- 36. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY WHY NOT SKIP THE BORING BITS?
- 37. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY WHAT IS GOOGLE’S ENDGAME?
- 38. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY “The car used to be the signal of adulthood, of freedom. It was the signal into being a grown-up. Now, the signal into adulthood for teenagers is the smartphone.” -Sheryl Connelly, Manager of Global Consumer Trends & Futuring, Ford Motor Co.
- 39. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY THE CAR IN THE CLOUD Saad Moosajee
- 40. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY ANNUAL VALUE OF DATA FROM YOUR CAR $550 $420 $150 $300 Source: Cisco Systems $1,420
- 41. DEVICES AND CONNECTIVITY WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR LEASING? •Leasing companies will be an important repository of valuable data – with the expertise to keep it secure •Autonomous vehicles mean a new definition of “Duty of care” •Mobility provision doesn’t need to mean a one-to-one relationship of cars to people •Smart systems that can plan and manage your travel across many modes, from a central interface
- 43. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING BMW LIFE/DRIVE
- 44. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING BODY STYLE PROLIFERATION
- 45. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING NEW PRODUCTION METHODS • iStream: separate body/chassis assembly • Chassis is scalable for size • Prepainted body panels can be prepared anywhere in the world, not on-site • Capital investment in factory facility can be up to 80% lower • Not targeted at existing auto manufacturers
- 46. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR PERSONALISATION
- 47. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING INCREASED EXPECTATION OF PERSONALISATION
- 48. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING LEASING COMPANIES CAN OFFER MORE
- 49. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING PERSONALISATION THAT GOES BEYOND MERE APPEARANCE
- 50. MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR LEASING? •Perk leasing agreements need to meet the desire for personal expression •Leasing companies can offer à la carte bolt on services to exceed manufacturers’ offerings •Clients need confidence that new materials won’t mean unmanageable repair costs •Commercial vehicles will need to do more to stand out on the street
- 51. CONCLUSION
- 52. CONCLUSION
- 53. CONCLUSION
- 54. CONCLUSION WE’RE BUILDING OUR WAY TO THE FUTURE TODAY
- 55. CONCLUSION MANAGE YOUR FLEET, YOUR VEHICLE OR YOUR JOURNEY ANYWHERE
- 57. THANKS
- 58. QUESTIONS?
Notes de l'éditeur
- Mix of sources – analytical as well as consumer-facing. Out-of-sector as well as just automotive.
- Mobility: 5% of GDP across EU directly Touches everything indirectly
- Petrol tank: 40 litres Hydrogen tank: 186 litres Battery: 400 litres
- Cost and capacity convergence
- …at which point the PR benefit of an EV fleet will increase rapidly
- Complexity of charging: Road charging, tax, etc
- The most important thing to bear in mind about Megacities, especially the new ones in China, are that the later you start developing a city, the further along the technology curve it starts. Without legacy, these cities will be wired and smart from the beginning. (Paris, Istanbul)
- Transport solutions in megacities are as much about density as anything else.
- Traffic lights in Toronto that were programmed with game theory to autonomously manage traffic flow Congestion reduced by 40% Average travel times reduce by 25%
- These solutions will come to the old world in smaller, more contained packages that fit into our existing infrastructure
- LeasePlan is the world’s biggest leasing company so you can be certain that wherever you’re doing business, we have the local, specialist and personal knowledge to get you where you need to be.
- App is better and cheaper. Stethoscopes Satnav - £120 Tomtom hardware vs £30 app (vs Free built-in nav)
- There are no airplanes, only computers that fly. There are no cars, only computers we sit in. There are no hearing aids, only computers we put in our ears. There are no 3D printers, only computers that drive peripherals. There are no radios, only computers with fast ADCs and DACs and phased-array antennas.
- Unique app needs of the car environment But platform adoption is heavily dependent on the volume of apps available If I’m the hot new startup I don’t want to develop 35 versions of my app
- I think the third, because never bet against smart convergence, and I’d be surprised if car manufacturers could co-ordinate on a platform before the established device categories eat their lunch
- VW from 2008
- 46% of 18-24yo’s would rather have a smartphone than a car Only 30 percent of eligible teens get driving licences at 16, compared to 50% in 1978 21-30yo’s now drive 8% fewer miles than in 1995
- …which means the car itself could be appified.
- Your car has a data shadow of everything it uploads, that can be observed, measured and tweaked. What’s that data worth?
- Annual value of data from your car
- Great Wall Steed
- Cars will get lighter, fuel efficiency will get better, engines will get smaller (Ford’s new 1.0L ecoboost = 1.8L NA engine)
- This is the trend that will counter appification, giving the driver a closer connection to the actual object of the car
- Great Wall Steed
- The future is a place where multi-modality in the name of energy efficiency is the norm, charging structures are complex and dynamic and the idea of owning a car is a declining proposition.
- But it’s also a place where cars will be more fun to drive when you want to drive them, and will store, maintain and park themselves – IF you have the right mobility provider.
- To support the kinds of services you’ll need in the future, LeasePlan is undergoing the biggest e-Business transformation programme in the industry to give us a platform that offers our customers efficiency, security, flexibility and transparency.
- If we told you everything that’s in the report this presentation would be about 2 hours long, so instead we’re making the whole thing available online for free. The URL is on the cards we’ve handed out.