A brief overview of the some of the services offered by Stochastic ApS within Oil and Gas exploration and production.

1. Selected services within oil and gas
exploration and production
Stochastic ApS
clarity in an uncertain world

2. Services
Advisory services
& decision support
Prospect
analysis
Play
analysis
Portfolio
analysis
Strategy
Tools &
studies
Trainings &
education
Independent
evaluation
Best practice in uncertainty
quantification and modelling
of uncertainty
Integration of subsurface,
engineering and economic
analyses
Value of information
SAAM database study
Prospect risk and uncertainty
model
Applied probability for
exploration
Decision theory and Value
of Information
Play modelling as extension
to applied probability
course
Prospect reviews with
respect to uncertainty
quantification
Independent review of new
ventures proposals with
respect to quantification of
play and portfolio effects
Lookback analysis
Portfolio characterization
Play modelling
Modelling geological and
infrastructure dependencies
between prospects
Portfolio analysis principles
Decision basis design
Exploration process design
Exploration governance
Strategy process design
Opportunity characterization
Strategic modelling
Exploitation of industry
datasets (e.g. WoodMac)
Venture model
Dry hole tolerance
Portfolio analysis tool kit
Opportunity characterization
model
Exploration Portfolio
Analysis

3. Lookback Analysis
Inputs
List of pre-drill assessments
of probability of success and
volume distribution parame-
ters together with outcomes
The list may include categori-
es (geography, trap type, etc.)
for more detailed analysis
The list may be anonymized
Deliverables
Rigorous, independent report on
comparison of predictions with
outcomes
Full catalogue of standard look-
back analyses with commentary
Advanced analysis using unique
tools to identify systematic bias
Your value
Distinguish clearly between luck
and assessment quality
Identify systematic biases
Furnish firm framework for
discussions on learning and
improvement
Why Stochastic ApS?
Unique insight and expertise
Fast turnaround
Competitive price
Independent, objective analysis
Deep understanding of the
decision process exploration
assessments support
Examine the quality of your probabilistic assessments through a comparison of pre-drill assessments with
historical outcomes

4. Exploration process audit
The exploration process audit is a mathematical health check for exploration
standards, rules and guidelines. While many exploration departments abound
with geoscientific expertise, this unique focus on the quantitative aspects of
exploration assessment ensures that geoscientific insight is not lost or unneces-
sarily distorted by inconsistent probabilistic practice. For example, we may
address questions such as:
Your value
Confidence in your assess-
ments
Richer conversations focussed
on aspects on uncertainty that
impact prospects’ place and
role in the portfolio at large
Resolution of conflicts with
regard to best practice
Why Stochastic ApS?
Unique insight and expertise
Fast turnaround
Competitive price
Independent, objective analysis
Deep understanding of the
decision process exploration
assessments support
Today’s market demands faithful assessments of risk and uncertainty and puts enormous pressure on the
simple heuristics that were our guide in the heyday of high prices
Are the events to which we ascribe probabilities consistently defined?
Can we accommodate the effects on probability of dependencies between
risk elements?
Is the relationship between probability and uncertainty represented correctly
in the portfolio?
Are we using all our data consistently?
Are we spending money acquiring and processing data that don’t contribute
to the decision?

5. Amplitude anomaly database analysis
The SAAM database - and others like
it - contain a wealth of information on
seismic attributes for a large number
of prospects. These data can be used
to understand which features provide
most reliable indications of the
presence of hydrocarbons. This, in
turn, forms the basis of a method by
which seismic anomalies can influen-
ce probability.
Please note, this service requires membership of the
SAAM consortium or access to a similar database
Deliverables
Excel based tool for updating
probability based on database
scores in a mathematically consi-
stent way
Excel based tool that provides
similar discrimination on the
basis of a fraction of the data -
useful for fast assessments and
data rooms
Half or one day course on Bayes
theorem, evidence and statistical
analysis of score databases
Full results catalogue showing
importance and statistical signifi-
cance of all indicators, as well as
detailed analyses of effects of
data quality, geography and
geology
Report detailing mathematical
analysis that furnished tools and
results catalogue
Your value
Data-consistent method for correc-
tly assessing significance of seis-
mic anomalies, with easy to use
tools
Deep insight in to significance of
specific features in different geo-
graphical and geological settings
Understand the information in Rose & Associates’ Seismic Amplitude Anomaly Database (SAAM) and use that
information to refine assessments of probability in a mathematically consistent way

6. Training for
excellence in
exploration
A clear understanding of the mathematics of
uncertainty is essential to capture the insights
of high quality geoscience in the quantitative
assessments on which exploration portfolio
decisions are based.
Our industry abounds with examples of how poor
probabilistic prediction not only leads to poor decisions
and wayward predictions, but also obscures valuable
insight and drains resources through unproductive
dialogue.
Stochastic ApS brings a unique quantitative perspective
to the challenges of uncertainty management in explo-
ration. Work with us to understand the strengths and
potential challenges of your current practice and to
tailor a programme to build a fit-for-purpose quantitati-
ve framework for your teams, including tools and
training.

7. Probability for oil and gas exploration
Target group
Assurance teams, portfolio managers and
analysts, exploration managers, project
managers, technical specialists.
Format
Classroom teaching with abundant exercises
and cases. Opportunity to discuss live
examples in “closed” courses
Your value
A key step in assuring excellence in the consi-
stent quantification of exploration uncertain-
ty. The first principles approach helps partici-
pants develop an intuition, which will support
all work that ends in a probability
Content
Probability as logic and
the logic of probability
Resolving uncertainty with
Bayes theorem
Distribution parameters
and parameterizing distri-
butions
Central limits and central
limitations
Best practice, models,
data and experts
Variability and uncertainty
Lookbacks
Portfolio analysis
Decision theory and value
of information
Why Stochastic ApS?
Unique quantitative perspective, unconta-
minated by the prejudice and practices of
the last fifty years
Unrivalled mathematical expertise
Deep appreciation of the link between
assessments of uncertainty and the
decisions based on those assessments
A two day training course providing a solid mathematical basis for the quantitative concepts needed to
assess exploration uncertainty

8. Decision Theory & Value of Information
Target group
Exploration managers, project mana-
gers, project portfolio managers,
decision executives, assurance
teams, specialists.
Format
Classroom teaching with abundant
exercises and cases. Opportunity to
discuss live examples in “closed”
courses.
Pre-requisites
Basic theory of probability for
discrete events and distributions,
basic economics (NPV).
The course can be taught in conjun-
ction with the applied probability
course.
Your value
All quantitative analysis should be
rooted in decisions and aspire to
objectives. This course tells you
how.
Why Stochastic ApS?
Unique quantitative perspective
Unrivalled expertise and experi-
ence applying modelling to
decision making
A one day training course teaching how simple quantitative models illuminate the dynamics of decision making
and the drive for data
Content
Decision quality
Value, present value, objectives,
risk metrics
Decision modelling basics
Simple decision models with
decision trees
Binary value of binary informati-
on
Examples of advanced analy-
ses

9. Exploration portfolio analysis
Target group
Portfolio managers and analysts,
exploration managers, project mana-
gers, decision executives, assurance
teams, specialists.
Format
Classroom teaching with abundant
exercises and cases. Opportunity to
discuss live examples in “closed”
courses.
Pre-requisites
Basic theory of probability for
discrete events and distributions,
basic economics (NPV).
The course can be taught in conjunc-
tion with the applied probability
course.
Your value
The ultimate goal of probabilistic
assessment in exploration is to select
prospects for drilling. This course
shows you how.
Content
Portfolio representations and
modelling
Venture modelling (play depen-
dence)
Risk: Metrics, utility, efficient
frontier, options
Best practice for decision proces-
ses
A one day training course teaching the mathematical analysis required to turn probabilistic subsurface and
economic assessments into investment recommendations
Why Stochastic ApS?
Unique quantitative perspective
Unrivalled expertise and experien-
ce in exploration portfolio analysis
Intimate understanding of relati-
onship between prospect assess-
ment and portfolio analysis

10. About your
advisor
Graeme Keith is our principle advisor in quantitative
methods for exploration. He has a PhD in applied
mathematics from Cambridge University (2000) and
coming up for 20 years’ experience applying quantitati-
ve modelling to business decision making.
Before starting Stochastic ApS, Graeme held a number
of senior management positions at Maersk Oil and
DONG, including Head of R&D, Global Exploration Port-
folio Manager, Head of Risk Management and Head of
Strategy.
Graeme is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematics and
its Applications and teaches and supervises at Copen-
hagen University and the Technical University of Den-
mark.

11. graeme@stochastic.dk
+45 53667951
www.stochastic.dk
Stochastic ApS