1. Workgroup Session #2
Scenario Planning
July 30, 2012
www.gro-wnc.org

2. Meeting Objectives & Agenda

4. Meeting Objectives
• Integrate workgroups
• Recognize complementary and competing
goals
• Compare two future scenarios to see if one
achieves goals better than the other, or
suggest a third scenario

5. Questions to be answered
Part One
• Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?
• What performance measures are you using to determine that?
Part Two
• If not, what should a third scenario accomplish?
• Are there other performance measures you are interested in?
118,000 9,217

6. Today’s Agenda
9:30 am Participant sign-in
9:45 am Welcome
9:50 am Scenario Planning Overview
10:30 am Part I begins | Group scenario planning
activity
11:30 pm Lunch break
12:15 pm Keypad Polling on Performance Measures
12:30 pm Orientation for Part II
12:35 pm Part II begins | Group scenario planning
activity
2:00 pm Summary discussion
2:20 pm Thank you

7. Key Findings from the
Community Meetings
http://www.gro-wnc.org/communitymeeting.html

8. Thank You!
County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of
Attendees
Madison Madison High 32
School Media
Center
Hendersonville Hendersonville 38
Operations Center
Haywood Haywood 13
Community College
Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64
Southside Center
Transylvania Transylvania Public 64
Library

9. Thank You!
County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of
Attendees
Madison Madison High 32
School Media
Center
Hendersonville Hendersonville 38
Operations Center
Haywood Haywood 13
Community College
Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64
Southside Center
Transylvania Transylvania Public 64
Library

11. Sixteen percent of all land in the GroWNC region is in
current agriculture use according to the US
Department of Agriculture.
Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007

12. The total market value of agriculture production in
the GroWNC region was $135million in 2007.
Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007

13. -30
-10
-50
110
10
30
50
70
90
Natural and Recreation Areas
Farms
Conservation Subdivision (2
units/acre)
Large Lot Homes (5 acre)
Preferred
Residential Subdivisions (1-2
units/acre)
Industrial and Commercial
Small Lot Homes and
Townhomes
Not Preferred
Small Downtowns/Village
Centers
Condos
Downtown Asheville

14. 68% of the region lives in a single-family detached
house.
Source: US Census

15. Housing Preferences Housing Data (US Census)
• 68% of the region lives in a
Urban Loft
single-family detached
11% house
• 17% of the region lives in a
Condo;
House on
Apartment
Several Acres
10%
Mobile
32%
mobile home
Townhouse
Home
1%
6% • 12% lives in a multi-family
structure (includes
House on
duplex, triplex, apartments,
Small Lot
22%
House on
Large Lot condos)
18%
• 3% lives in a single-family
attached house

16. The Arts industries in Buncombe and Transylvania
Counties generated $2.6million in total local
government revenue in 2010.
Source: Arts and Economic Prosperity Study IV

18. Summer camps in Buncombe, Henderson and
Transylvania Counties generated $365 million in
total economic impact to the region.
Source: NC Camping Association

19. Introduced preferences
The City of Asheville has 132 linear miles of
sidewalks.
Source: City of Asheville Sidewalk Inventory

20. Over 90% of WNC imports arrive from southern
ports demonstrating a heavy reliance on I-26 and
other southeastern routes.
Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit

22. Common Goals and Objectives

23. Projected Growth

24. Population
700,000
600,000 634,337
577,277
500,000 519,674
457,948
400,000
398,502
300,000 333,519
200,000
100,000
-
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

25. Population
Total 2040 Population = 634,337
Growth of 39%

26. Dwelling Units
Total 2040 Dwelling Units = 328,816
Growth of 41%

27. 170,558
Dwelling Units
180,000
160,000
140,000 125,479
120,000
45,079 26,646
100,000
81,359
80,000 14,694
54,713
60,000 42,969 7,915
1,638
40,000 28,275 23,821
15,906
10,109
20,000 8,471
-
Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania
2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units

28. Employment
Total 2040 Employment= 470,642
Growth of 36%

29. 350,000 Employment (Jobs)
300,780
300,000
250,000 220,909
200,000
79,871
150,000 24,921
11,028 91,355
100,000 3,951
68,788
44,273 1,881
32,864
50,000 22,990
16,671
8,004 11,245
-
Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania
2011 Employment 2040 Employment

30. Scenario Planning

32. Scenario Planning:
Introduction

33. What is Scenario Planning?
• Scenario Planning is a method for learning
about the future.
– Understand the potential consequences of
present-day choices.
– Make wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.

34. How does Scenario Planning work?
• We start with a base case scenario, one that represents
our future if we continue on a “business-as-usual”
path, and we evaluate it relative to a subset of goals
(development-related goals)
• Then we consider our options… and we create
additional (or alternative) scenarios that maximize
different options so that we can understand some of
the consequences – intended and unintended, good
and bad
• We evaluate alternatives relative to “business-as-
usual” (BAU) and to each other guided by a subset of
goals (development-related goals)

35. Together, We Create our Future

36. Scenario Planning:
Aided by a Model

37. Area Type
Development Density Classifications
Intensity Definition Examples in the Study Area
Newfound Mountains, Spring Creek
Remote mountain ranges and valleys. Primarily used
Very Rural for timber harvesting and some farming.
Mountain, Sandy Bottom (Madison Co.),
Cascade Lake Area (Transylvania Co.)
Sparsely settled areas. Largely farms with the Large portions of Madison County,
Rural occasional rural subdivision. Western Henderson County
Areas where a variety of land uses occur at low
densities. Primarily low density residential with
Low Density occasional strip retail development, isolated
Dana, Beaumont, Montreat, Riceville
industrial.
Medium Areas where a variety of land uses occur. Primarily Grovemont, Swannanoa Hills, Pisgah
medium density residential with occasional strip Drive in Canton, Millbrook Estates in
Density retail development, isolated industrial. Brevard, Dellwood in Hendersonville
Areas where a variety of land uses occur at moderate
Moderate densities. Some concentration of employment,
North Brevard, Black Mountain,
generally separated and auto-oriented. Includes
Density Weaverville, Mars Hill, Maggie Valley
smaller towns, and villages that serve as nodes of
activity in rural areas.
Areas where a variety of land uses occur at the
highest densities in the region. Generally found in
High Density established core areas such as county seats. These Asheville, Waynesville, Hendersonville
are the most pedestrian and transit friendly areas in
the region. High concentration of employment.

38. Low Medium Moderate High
Very Rural Rural Density Density Density Density
Barnardsville and
the Ivy Creek Downtown
Valley Asheville
Grovemont,
Newfound
Dellwood in
Mountains
Hendersonville
Downtown
Montreat, Mars Hill
Riceville
Source: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company

39. 2012

40. Developing the Model Growth Forecasts
(Control Totals)
Existing Development
Population (Land Use Inventory)
700,000
600,000 634,337 Land Supply
577,277 (Available Land)
500,000 519,674
457,948
400,000
398,502
Suitability
300,000 333,519
by Land Use Type
200,000
100,000 Development
- Policies
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Growth Allocation

41. Scenario Planning:
Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario

42. Business As Usual Scenario
• Honors adopted local plans
• Growth follows current trends, occurring
where land is most suitable

43. 2012

44. BAU

45. Scenario Planning:
Performance Measures

46. Common Goals and Objectives

47. Common Goals and Objectives

48. Evaluation of BAU
41%

49. Scenario Planning:
Alternative Scenario

51. Energy Natural Economic
Resources Development

52. Alternative Scenario #1
• Assumes a policy of protection for prime
industry and agricultural lands

55. ALT 1

56. BAU

57. Comparison: BAU vs. Alternative 1
41%

59. BAU

60. ALT 1

61. Today’s Work Session

62. Objectives
• Integrate workgroups
• Recognize complementary and competing
goals
• Compare two future scenarios to see if one
achieves goals better than the other, or
suggest a third scenario

63. Explanation of Tools
• Performance Measures (table)
– 11x17 (individual worksheet)
– 24x36 (group)
• Maps
– Current Year
– BAU
– Alternative 1
• Existing conditions maps
• Other resource materials
• Markers, stickers, etc.

68. Part One
• Where you live/work
• Review Performance Measure Handout
• Evaluate the BAU
• Evaluate Alternative 1
• Questions to Answer:
– Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?
– What performance measures are you using to determine
that?

69. Where you live, where you work.
Where you
Live
Where you
Work

70. Review of Performance Measures
Handout
Circle which
performance
measures best
represent your
priorities.

71. Evaluate the BAU

72. Evaluate Alternative 1

73. Part Two
• Create a new scenario
• Questions to Answer:
– What should a third scenario accomplish?
– Are there other performance measures you
are interested in?
118,000 9,217

74. Create a new Scenario.
Distribute Growth &
Protect Areas
Yellow Dot =
Housing
Red Dot =
Jobs
Dark Green Dot =
Protected
Light Green Dot =
Rural/Farm

75. Where is there room for
improvement?
What
performance
measures MUST
be improved? 50%

76. Are there other performance
measures you are interested in?

77. THANK YOU!!!
Contact us
grownc@landofsky.org
www.gro-wnc.org