The document discusses climate change impacts in the Great Lakes region based on a conference presentation. It finds that (1) the climate is already changing, with temperatures rising especially in winter and other impacts like shorter ice cover, (2) these changes will exacerbate existing problems like worsening water resources and human health issues, and (3) common sense solutions exist now but it is unclear if governments, industries and citizens are adequately preparing for these challenges.
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Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Confronting Impacts and Preparing for the Future
1. Confrontingg
Climate Change in the Great
Lakes Region
k i
3rd Annual Great Lakes Conference
Healing our Waters Great Lakes Coalition
Chicago, IL
September 6, 2007
Don Scavia
University of Michigan
School of Natural Resources and Environment
Michigan Sea Grant
2. Today’s Outline
Today s
Cli t i l
Climate is already changing
d h i
… and interacting with other stresses
g
We are seeing impacts our region
… expect more
Are we preparing for them?
(setting aside emission controls for today)
7. Human Influences on Climate:
3 Key Greenhouse Gases
ey G ee ouse
IPCC 2001,
Summary for Policy Makers
8. Increasing Confidence
IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could
b l l d t t l i bilit lt ti l thi
be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this
variability and other man-made factors could have offset
a still larger man-made greenhouse warming.
IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.
IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to
human activities.
IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
(90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations.
9. The Globe is Warming …
g
What about the Great
Lakes Region?
10. Great Lakes Region
Temps are rising, especially in winter
Winters are shorter
Spring comes earlier
p g
Shorter duration of ice cover
Extreme rainfall events more frequent
12. Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones
Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006
1990 2006
-40 to
-30 ºF
-40 to -30 ºF -30 to -20 ºF
-30 to -20 ºF
30 20
-20 to -10 ºF
-20 to -10 ºF -5 to -10 ºF
Average Minimum
Temperatures
14. 1 Nov
Lakes and
Rivers are 1D
Dec
Freezing
later, and
Thawing
1 Jan
Freeze
Earlier
1 Feb
1 Mar
1 Apr
Breakup
1 May
1 Jun
1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Modified from
Magnuson et al. 2000
15. 1 Nov
Grand
Traverse Bay
Winter Freeze
1D
Dec
and Breakup
Dates 1 Jan
Freeze
1 Feb
1 Mar
1 Apr
Breakup
1 May
1 Jun
Modified from 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
Magnuson et al. 2000
16. C er The Big Lakes too!
Lake Lake
ent Ice Cove
Huron Ontario
1972 2007 1972 2007
I
Lake Lake
Erie Michigan
Perce
P
1972 2007 1972 2007
22. Projected Climate Changes in the
Great Lakes Region by 2100
Temperature
Generally Warmer (esp. in winter)
Extreme heat more common
Growing season several weeks longer
Ice cover decline will continue
Precipitation
Winter, spring increasing
Wi t i i i
Summer, fall decreasing
Drier soils, more droughts
i il d h
More extreme events
27. The Changing Character of Great
Lakes Lakes Streams & Fish
Lakes, Streams,
• Cold-water fish will decline,
cool- & warm-water species
move northh
• Ecosystem disruptions
compounded by invasions
of non-native species
• Summer lake stratification
will increase more dead
increase, dead-
zones and fish kills
28.
29. “Dead Zones”
& Fish Kills
will increase
It’s b k
’ back!
in shallower
regions.
i
??
30. The Changing Character of Great
Lakes Forests & Wildlife
Boreal forests likely to disappear
Short-term forest productivity
could increase
Higher ozone, droughts, fires, insects could
damage long-term forest health
Birds breed more and earlier
Raccoons, skunks, and
may benefit
Moose likely to suffer
31. Northern
Today
movement of
B lti
Baltimore
Oriole habitat
2X CO2
32. The Changing Character of Great
Lakes Recreation & Tourism
Significant impacts on
multi-billion $ industry
lti billi i d t
Millions of anglers affected
by fish impacts
Bird-watchers and hunters affected
Summer season expanded,
but more extreme heat
heat,
heavy downpours
Winter recreation
hard hit
33. Winter is a part of our
“Sense of Place”.
We are losing Winter as
we once knew it.
… John Magnuson
34. Climate Change Impacts Will
Not O
Occur in a Vacuum
Population is growing
Urbanization and sprawl
Social challenges
Pollution of air & water
Landscape fragmentation
35. The Changing Character of Great
Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds
Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower
water levels tough on wetland species
Lower flood-absorbing capacity
Fewer breeding sites for amphibians
amphibians,
shorebirds and waterfowl
Shrinking wetland h bit t drying of
Sh i ki tl d habitat, d i f
prairie potholes
37. Exacerbation of Existing Problems
Water Resources
Reduced groundwater
recharge, small streams
likely to dry up
Lake levels expected to
decline
Pressure to increase water
extraction from the Great Lakes
38. Why are lake levels so low?
Precipitation is normal!
40. Future Lake Michigan Levels
+1.0
m)
Annual Mean Water Level (m
+1.3 ft
L
0.0
Model
W
Range
R
-1.0
2090 = Lofgren et al. 2002
- 4.6 ft
A
-2.0
1900 1950 2000
2090 = Lofgren et al.
41. Exacerbation of Existing Problems
Property & Infrastructure
P t I f t t
More frequent extreme storms and floods
- greater property damage
- bu de on emergency a age e t
burden o e e ge cy management
- increased clean-up and rebuilding
- financial toll on businesses and homeowners
Lower lake levels
- shipping-related adjustments
- more dredging needed
42.
43. Exacerbation of Existing Problems
Human H lth
H Health
Cold-related health problems
p
decline, while heat-related
mortality will increase > 90oF
Extreme heat more likely
>40 days >90°F
>90 > 97oF
>25 days >97°F
Waterborne and other infectious
diseases may become more
frequent or widespread
44.
45. Summer Heat-Related Mortality for
Current, 2020, and 2050 Climate
Current
2020
250
2050
250 200
150
200
150 100
50
100
50 0
0
Montreal
Source: WHO, 1996 Toronto
Note: Does not include winter mortality. GFDL Climate
Assumes no acclimatization to changed climate.
Does not account for population growth. Change Scenario
46. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable
No-regrets solutions available now
A three-pronged approach:
Reduce our emissions
Minimize other pressures on
the environment
Plan and prepare to manage
impacts
47. Minimizing OTHER Pressures
on O Environment
Our E i
• Air Quality Improvements
• Water Resource Protection
• Habitat Protection
• Urban and Land Use Planning
48. Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem
Protection and Restoration
Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes
Interacting stresses matter
Nutrient
Loading
We’re approaching a tipping point
Over fishing
O e s g
Toxic
Climate
Cli t
Chemicals
Ch i l
change Climate
Change!
g
We know enough to act now
Land Use
Restore
Hydrologic Resiliency!
R ili !
Alterations
Invasive Species
49. Take Home
Messages:
• Climate change is changing the character
of the Great Lakes region
• Climate change will continue to magnify
g g y
existing health and environmental
problems
• Common sense solutions/adaptations
are available now -- IF WE PREPARE FOR
THEM
50. Managing Climate Impacts
But, are “we”
• Emergency Preparedness
preparing?
• Agricultural and Forestry
Adaptations
Governments?
• Public Health Improvements
• Industries?
Infrastructure Adjustments
•
Citizens?
Education