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Climate Change Science &  Role of Youth Dhiraj Pradhananga The Small Earth Nepal
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Major causes of pressure to the Earth??
 
09/27/11 SEN-DP
 
Human Impacts
Human Activities and Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Environmental Problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ecological Significance ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological diversity   09/27/11 SEN-DP Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%.  This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history.  Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.
Living Planet Report 2000   (30 years from 1970 to 1997) ,[object Object],[object Object],09/27/11 SEN-DP Ecological pressure of an average consumer in the industrialized countries is FOUR times that of an average consumer in the lower income countries
Living in Capital not Interest ,[object Object],09/27/11 SEN-DP
The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi “ If every inhabitant of this earth were to consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need  a  second Earth .” But the present data tells us we already need a  third Earth  if everyone consumed the same amount of fossil fuel.
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Climate Change  and Its Consequences The Greatest Challenge Basics of Climate Change What is it meant for us?
What is giving cause for concern? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate Science- Dhiraj Pradhananga
Source: IPCC-AR4 Global Mean Temperature   Accelerating Rate  of warming (°C per decade) 1850 – 2005 => 0.045 1905 – 2005 => 0.074 1955 – 2005 => 0.128 1980 – 2005 => 0.177 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999
Anthropogenic climate change  (Global Warming) ,[object Object]
" Adverse effects  of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of  socio-economic systems  or on  human health  and  welfare ”  (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992). Calorie  availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in  24 million additional malnourished children ,  21% more  relative to a world without climate change  (IFPRI, 2009).
Vulnerability of developing world to  climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Millions at  risk
Climate Change Science What is the major cause of CHANGE?
Three factors affect how warm the planet is: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years
Some of the main greenhouse gases Name Pre-ind conc ppmv 1998 con ppmv Atmosph lifetime  yr Main anthropogenic source GWP Water  1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days CO 2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change 1 CH 4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock 23 N 2 0 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion 296 CHF 3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant 12000 SF 6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid 22200
Two important points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CO2 concentration has changed over millennia & global temperature follows similar pattern Then if we look at some other evidence:
There are other natural causes of climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Computer model evidence for climate change being human induced
Climate Science- Dhiraj Pradhananga
Climate Change  Definition   ,[object Object],[object Object],A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)   EARTHSCAN 2007
Source: IPCC-AR4
Global Warming ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],21 st  Century warming larger than 20 th  century
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some projected impacts   IPCC   Fourth Assessment Report ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some projected impacts   IPCC   Fourth Assessment Report ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some projected impacts   IPCC   Fourth Assessment Report ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples of Ecological Consequences ,[object Object],In summer 2002, pinyon ( Pinus edulis ) began dying  en masse   from drought stress and an associated  bark beetle outbreak   ( Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos) (2004) Source: USGS
Climate Change Scenario: Nepal Observed and Projected Climate - what we expect Weather - what we get
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Climate Scenario Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.
Climate Change Scenario difference between  “ climate scenario”  & “ present climate”
Major Weather Systems  (Source: Baidya, DHM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summer Monsoon Western disturbances 26º 22' N - 30º 27' N Lat. 80º 4'E - 88º 12'E Long. 0 200 400 100 Kilometers India China Iran Pakistan Myanmar Thailand Afghanistan Laos Nepal Cambodia Bangladesh Oman Bhutan Sri Lanka Turkmenistan Malaysia 0 130 260 65 Kilometers
Climate Change: Nepal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Temperature
Annual Mean Temperature Trend 2 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year Temperature (°C) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Temperature Trend  (Baidya, DHM) y = 0.039x + 19.335 R = 0.5973
Precipitation
Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) (Source: DHM) Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 1977 1992,  35 1987,  106 1998 1975 1982 y = 0.5997x + 61.417 R 2 = 0.0984 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Days
Glaciers
X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year  (Source: GEN/DHM)
Imja Glacier Lake  (DHM)
Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake
How Fast They Are Shrinking? ,[object Object],[object Object],Dyurgerov  [2002];  Fujita et al.  [1997, JG; 1998; BGR; 2001, BGR]
Observed Climate Change Impact   Cryosphore studies in Nepal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate Change and Himalayas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Most of the glaciers are retreating!
Observed Climate Change  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Most glaciers are retreating at faster rate Extreme hydro-climatic events are increasing
PROJECTIONS
 
Warmer Future  Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Temperature Change Projection For Late 21 st  Century Climate Change Projection  Late 21 st  Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
PRECIS projection of mean temperature change over Nepal by the end of 21st century
Wetter Future   Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Change in Annual Rainfall  Up to 30% increase  Climate Change Projection-  Late 21 st  Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
PRECIS projection of rainfall change over Nepal by the end of 21st century
Wetter Summer Drier Winter Change in Seasonal Rainfall Climate Change Projection-  Late 21 st  Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India
(Source: Sharma, DHM)
WATER RESOURCES  (Source: Sharma, DHM)
Khumbu, Rasuwa and Jumla LOCAL Observations from
Annual rainfall trend- Chaurikharka  (WWF/SEN, 2008) Trend: 30 mm/ decade ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chaurikharka
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka 5 day extreme rainfall - Chaurikharka Trend in extreme rainfall Vs Altitude (WWF/SEN, 2008)
Khumbu Area ,[object Object],[object Object],(WWF/SEN, 2008) Khumbu Area Station name Elev (m) JIRI 2003 OKHALDHUNGA 1720 PHATEPUR 100
Study area (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Rainfall Change Projection (%) All Nepal Average 15.5 At Study Grid 10.4 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 10.7
(WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Temp. Change Projection (C)  All Nepal Average 4.2 At Study Grid 4.7 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 4.2 Study area
Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime  (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Summer days (25) trend at Jumla   Warm nights' trend at Jumla
Significant decreasing trend in annual total rainfall  (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Trend of total rainfall on wet days at Jumla  Trend of annual count of days when rainfall > 10 mm at Jumla
Increased risk of flash flood and drought in different seasons Consecutive dry day trend at Rasuwa  Consecutive wet day trend at Rasuwa
Changing Climate in Jumla ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Practical Action/SEN, 2009)
Rasuwa (Jibjibe at border of Bhorle and Dhaibung, between two big landslides) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bridges in Dipalgaun, Jumla
Houses in Jumla
Road Leads Landslide:  Gabion Walls
Cropping Pattern Choice of Crops
SALT (Slopping Agriculture Land Technology)
Alternative Energy
Education and Poverty Alleviation Loan and Insurance
Quality Data
 
Table 1: Hazard types and adaptation matrix Mitigation and Adaptation S Settlements Hazards  Hard Measure Soft Measure Remarks 1 Ghat ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 Chhuthawa ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 Chhermadin ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4 Phakding ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5 Gumela ,[object Object],[object Object],6 Sano Gumela ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],7 Thulo Gumela Comparatively safer area 8 Toktok ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9 Benker ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],10 Chhumawa ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],11 Chhuserma ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],12 Manjo ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Adaptation in Nepal?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Should be Done? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our  Respond? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Triad Model of Social Change Motivate Capacity Opportunity
Discussion!!! ,[object Object]
Climate Change Impact in Nepal Message take HOME ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ I am no longer skeptical  …climate change is the major challenge facing the world” Sir David Attenborough “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism” Sir David King The Atlas of  Climate Change Mapping the world’s greatest  challenge

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Climate Science- Dhiraj Pradhananga

  • 1. Climate Change Science & Role of Youth Dhiraj Pradhananga The Small Earth Nepal
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Major causes of pressure to the Earth??
  • 5.  
  • 7.  
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological diversity 09/27/11 SEN-DP Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%. This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history. Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi “ If every inhabitant of this earth were to consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need a second Earth .” But the present data tells us we already need a third Earth if everyone consumed the same amount of fossil fuel.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Climate Change and Its Consequences The Greatest Challenge Basics of Climate Change What is it meant for us?
  • 20.
  • 22. Source: IPCC-AR4 Global Mean Temperature Accelerating Rate of warming (°C per decade) 1850 – 2005 => 0.045 1905 – 2005 => 0.074 1955 – 2005 => 0.128 1980 – 2005 => 0.177 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999
  • 23.
  • 24. " Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare ” (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992). Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in 24 million additional malnourished children , 21% more relative to a world without climate change (IFPRI, 2009).
  • 25.
  • 26. Millions at risk
  • 27. Climate Change Science What is the major cause of CHANGE?
  • 28.
  • 29. It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years
  • 30. Some of the main greenhouse gases Name Pre-ind conc ppmv 1998 con ppmv Atmosph lifetime yr Main anthropogenic source GWP Water 1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days CO 2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change 1 CH 4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock 23 N 2 0 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion 296 CHF 3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant 12000 SF 6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid 22200
  • 31.
  • 32. CO2 concentration has changed over millennia & global temperature follows similar pattern Then if we look at some other evidence:
  • 33.
  • 34. Computer model evidence for climate change being human induced
  • 36.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44. Climate Change Scenario: Nepal Observed and Projected Climate - what we expect Weather - what we get
  • 45.
  • 46. Climate Scenario Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.
  • 47. Climate Change Scenario difference between “ climate scenario” & “ present climate”
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 51.
  • 53. Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) (Source: DHM) Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 1977 1992, 35 1987, 106 1998 1975 1982 y = 0.5997x + 61.417 R 2 = 0.0984 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Days
  • 55. X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year (Source: GEN/DHM)
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 63.  
  • 64. Warmer Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Temperature Change Projection For Late 21 st Century Climate Change Projection Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
  • 65. PRECIS projection of mean temperature change over Nepal by the end of 21st century
  • 66. Wetter Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Change in Annual Rainfall Up to 30% increase Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
  • 67. PRECIS projection of rainfall change over Nepal by the end of 21st century
  • 68. Wetter Summer Drier Winter Change in Seasonal Rainfall Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India
  • 70. WATER RESOURCES (Source: Sharma, DHM)
  • 71. Khumbu, Rasuwa and Jumla LOCAL Observations from
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75. Study area (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Rainfall Change Projection (%) All Nepal Average 15.5 At Study Grid 10.4 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 10.7
  • 76. (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Temp. Change Projection (C) All Nepal Average 4.2 At Study Grid 4.7 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 4.2 Study area
  • 77. Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Summer days (25) trend at Jumla Warm nights' trend at Jumla
  • 78. Significant decreasing trend in annual total rainfall (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Trend of total rainfall on wet days at Jumla Trend of annual count of days when rainfall > 10 mm at Jumla
  • 79. Increased risk of flash flood and drought in different seasons Consecutive dry day trend at Rasuwa Consecutive wet day trend at Rasuwa
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 84. Road Leads Landslide: Gabion Walls
  • 86. SALT (Slopping Agriculture Land Technology)
  • 88. Education and Poverty Alleviation Loan and Insurance
  • 90.  
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 93.
  • 94.
  • 95. The Triad Model of Social Change Motivate Capacity Opportunity
  • 96.
  • 97.
  • 98. “ I am no longer skeptical …climate change is the major challenge facing the world” Sir David Attenborough “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism” Sir David King The Atlas of Climate Change Mapping the world’s greatest challenge

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. The red line (1000-1860) shows the 50-year average, and the gray region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. The red line (1860-2000) shows the decadal average. Over the period 2000 to 2100, projections are shown of globally averaged surface temp for the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a as estimated by a model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region – ‘several models all SRES envelope”
  2. Nearly one in three Asians today lives on less than one US dollar per day. The climate models project a warming of at least 2.5°C over Asia by the end of the century. According to the Global Human Development Report 2007/08, Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.534 is the lowest for South Asia and less than the average for the developing countries. The incidence of poverty is 31 percent
  3. Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas. However, human activities have little direct impact on its concentration in the atmosphere. In contrast, we have a large impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. In order to be able to compare how different gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, a method has been developed to estimate their global warming potentials (GWP). GWPs depend on the capacity of greenhouse gas molecules to absorb or trap heat and the time the molecules remain in the atmosphere before being removed or broken down. The GWP of carbon dioxide is 1 (constant for all time periods) and the GWPs of other greenhouse gases are measured relative to it. Even though methane and nitrous oxide have much higher GWPs than carbon dioxide, because their concentration in the atmosphere is much lower, carbon dioxide remains the most important greenhouse gas, contributing about 60% to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
  4. A range of scenarios can be used to identify the sensitivity of an exposure unit to climate change and to help policy makers decide on appropriate policy responses. It is important to emphasize that climate scenarios are not predictions, like weather forecasts. Weather forecasts make use of enormous quantities of information on the observed state of the atmosphere and calculate, using the laws of physics, how this state will evolve during the next few days, producing a prediction of the future - a forecast. In contrast, a climate scenario is a plausible indication of what the future could be like over decades or centuries, given a specific set of assumptions. These assumptions include future trends in energy demand, emissions of greenhouse gases, land use change as well as assumptions about the behavior of the climate system over long time scales. It is largely the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions which determines the range of possible scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) provides 40 different scenarios. The choice of climate scenarios and related non-climatic scenarios is important because it can determine the outcome of a climate impact assessment. Extreme scenarios can produce extreme impacts; moderate scenarios may produce more modest effects. It follows that the selection of scenarios can also be controversial, unless the fundamental uncertainties inherent in future projections are properly addressed in the impact analysis.
  5. A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships, that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as about the observed current climate. A “climate change scenario” is the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate.
  6. Substantial Warming (3.5 o C – 5 o C )
  7. Source: Sharma, DHM
  8. The National Communication indicates that overall precipitation in Nepal is decreasing at the rate of 9.8mm/decade, using data from 1981-1999, and that monsoon precipitation increased at 8.4mm/decade over the same period (National Communication 2004). The IPCC however, cite studies indicating that there has been no long term trend in precipitation in Nepal for the period 1948-1994 (IPCC 2007b). This highlights the fact that even for current trends, it is much harder to accurately assess precipitation. Positive trend (~30 mm/decade) at Chaurikharka- closest met stn from site. But trend is much higher in teria and apparently annual rf trend decrease with elevation with much smaller trend (+ve or –ve) at high altitude
  9. TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile Days TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile Days TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile Days TX90pWarm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile Days