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What You Need To Know
Thanks to the folks from the OPS conference
for inviting me to speak yesterday.
We focused on how screens are changing
digital advertising. Here are the background
slides I shared to kick off the discussion.
Our BI Intelligence analysts prepared these
slides. (Thanks, team!)
3
Business Intelligence For The Digital Age
News, insights, data, analysis and
forecasts with a focus on digital
Prepared by:
SCREENS
Screens are proliferating.
The mobile market is booming
but that is just the beginning.
Samsung
Apple
Huawei LG
Lenovo
Sony Ericsson
ZTE
Nokia Windows Phone
BlackBerry
HTC
Motorola
Other
0
25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
175,000,000
200,000,000
225,000,000
250,000,000
275,000,000
300,000,000
325,000,000
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
UnitsShipped
Global Smartphone Shipments By Manufacturer
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
MOBILE: Almost 1 billion smartphones
shipped in 2013.
PCs
Tablets
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
(Thousands)
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analy cs company releases
Global Computer Shipments
Tablets are cannibalizing PCs.
~225 million tablets were
shipped in 2013.
Apple
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
Windows
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Global Tablet Shipments
By Pla orm
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
Android
~80% of smartphones run Android.
Android
Apple iOS
Microso
BlackBerry
Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
ShareofGlobalUnitSales
Source: IDC, Strategy Analy cs
Global Smartphone Market Share By Pla orm
~60% of tablets run Android.
Android
Apple
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
BlackBerry Nook Windows
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
Global Tablet Market Share
By Pla orm
Mobile is enabling new forms of
entertainment, communication,
media, and commerce.
Mobile is driving all of
Facebook’s revenue growth,
Total Ad Revenue
Mobile Ad Revenue
$ 0
$ 500
$ 1,000
$ 1,500
$ 2,000
$ 2,500
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Millions
Source: Facebook
Facebook Ad Revenues
Mobile drives 13% of ecommerce sales
Desktop
E-Commerce Sales
Mobile
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13E
($millions)
Source: BI Intelligence, comScore, Federal Reserve Economic Data--St. Louis Fed
U.S. E-Commerce Retail Sales
Starbucks did $1B in mobile
transactions last year in the U.S.
$145
$207
$244
$272
$340
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014
MillionsOfU.S.Dollars
Source: Starbucks's Statements, BI Intelligence Es mates
Starbucks's Mobile Payments Volume
(United States)
Apple did $10B in revenue
last year from apps.
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(millions)
Source: news reports, company releases
Apple App Store Revenues
By Year
But, as we know …
Habits and technology keep changing.
What’s Next?
Multiple devices and screens.
Everything’s Connected!
PCs
Smartphones
Tablets
Internet Of Things
Connected TVs
Wearables
Connected Cars
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
NumberOfDevicesInUseGlobally(InThousands)
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
The Internet Of Everything
Tech execs think wearables
are the next big thing.
Analysts have wildly different views.
We are mildly bullish.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AnnualUnitShipmentsByYear
Sources: Various, *Includes all wearables
Forecasts For Annual Wearable Device Shipments Vary Wildly
ABI IMS-Mid Juniper IMS-Low IMS-High BII
Connected cars will be a huge opportunity.
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Source: SBD, GSMA
Connected Car Revenue Forecast
$50B
by
2018
It’s huge because we spend so much
‘dead’ time in cars.
Sleeping
7.6 hours
Leisure And Sports
2.5 hours
In The Car 1.2 hours
Ea ng/Drinking 1.1 hours
Household Work 1.1 hours
Other 1.7 others
0
12
24
Source: Bureau Of Labor Sta s cs
Average Daily Time Spent Per Person
U.S. Employed Ci zens ages 25 to 54
Working
8.8 hours
And in media, eyeballs are moving
to digital, especially mobile.
45%$
25%$
17%$
9%$
7%$
4%$
44%$
26%$
16%$
8%$ 8%$
6%$
43%$
26%$
15%$
7%$ 7%$
9%$
42%$
26%$
14%$
6%$
5%$
12%$
38%$
20%$
12%$
4%$
5%$
20%$
0%$
5%$
10%$
15%$
20%$
25%$
30%$
35%$
40%$
45%$
50%$
TV$ Online$ Radio$ Print$ Other$ Mobile$
Source:(eMarketer,(August(2013(
U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$
2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$
People use phones while watching TV.
62%
39%
67%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mul ple Times A Week Daily
%OfRespondents
Source: Nielsen, BI Intelligence
Nearly Half Of U.S. Popula on Uses Their
Smartphones While Watching TV Every Day
How o en do you use these devices while you watch TV? (U.S. data)
2Q 2012 1Q 2013
Digital now accounts for more
than ¼ of total ad spend.
Offline
All Other Online
Mobile
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
(billions)
U.S. Adver sing
Source: IAB, U.S. Census Bureau, Stategy Analy cs. BI Intelligence es mates
For more from
Visit
intelligence.businessinsider.com
Thank you!

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Business insider screens are proliferating

  • 1. What You Need To Know
  • 2. Thanks to the folks from the OPS conference for inviting me to speak yesterday. We focused on how screens are changing digital advertising. Here are the background slides I shared to kick off the discussion. Our BI Intelligence analysts prepared these slides. (Thanks, team!)
  • 3. 3 Business Intelligence For The Digital Age News, insights, data, analysis and forecasts with a focus on digital Prepared by:
  • 5. Screens are proliferating. The mobile market is booming but that is just the beginning.
  • 6. Samsung Apple Huawei LG Lenovo Sony Ericsson ZTE Nokia Windows Phone BlackBerry HTC Motorola Other 0 25,000,000 50,000,000 75,000,000 100,000,000 125,000,000 150,000,000 175,000,000 200,000,000 225,000,000 250,000,000 275,000,000 300,000,000 325,000,000 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 UnitsShipped Global Smartphone Shipments By Manufacturer Source: BI Intelligence Es mates MOBILE: Almost 1 billion smartphones shipped in 2013.
  • 8. ~225 million tablets were shipped in 2013. Apple Amazon (Kindle Fire) Windows - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Global Tablet Shipments By Pla orm Source: BI Intelligence Es mates Android
  • 9. ~80% of smartphones run Android. Android Apple iOS Microso BlackBerry Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 ShareofGlobalUnitSales Source: IDC, Strategy Analy cs Global Smartphone Market Share By Pla orm
  • 10. ~60% of tablets run Android. Android Apple Amazon (Kindle Fire) BlackBerry Nook Windows 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Source: BI Intelligence Es mates Global Tablet Market Share By Pla orm
  • 11. Mobile is enabling new forms of entertainment, communication, media, and commerce.
  • 12. Mobile is driving all of Facebook’s revenue growth, Total Ad Revenue Mobile Ad Revenue $ 0 $ 500 $ 1,000 $ 1,500 $ 2,000 $ 2,500 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Millions Source: Facebook Facebook Ad Revenues
  • 13. Mobile drives 13% of ecommerce sales Desktop E-Commerce Sales Mobile $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13E ($millions) Source: BI Intelligence, comScore, Federal Reserve Economic Data--St. Louis Fed U.S. E-Commerce Retail Sales
  • 14. Starbucks did $1B in mobile transactions last year in the U.S. $145 $207 $244 $272 $340 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 MillionsOfU.S.Dollars Source: Starbucks's Statements, BI Intelligence Es mates Starbucks's Mobile Payments Volume (United States)
  • 15. Apple did $10B in revenue last year from apps. $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (millions) Source: news reports, company releases Apple App Store Revenues By Year
  • 16. But, as we know …
  • 17. Habits and technology keep changing.
  • 20. Everything’s Connected! PCs Smartphones Tablets Internet Of Things Connected TVs Wearables Connected Cars 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NumberOfDevicesInUseGlobally(InThousands) Source: BI Intelligence Es mates The Internet Of Everything
  • 21. Tech execs think wearables are the next big thing.
  • 22. Analysts have wildly different views. We are mildly bullish. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AnnualUnitShipmentsByYear Sources: Various, *Includes all wearables Forecasts For Annual Wearable Device Shipments Vary Wildly ABI IMS-Mid Juniper IMS-Low IMS-High BII
  • 23. Connected cars will be a huge opportunity. $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: SBD, GSMA Connected Car Revenue Forecast $50B by 2018
  • 24. It’s huge because we spend so much ‘dead’ time in cars. Sleeping 7.6 hours Leisure And Sports 2.5 hours In The Car 1.2 hours Ea ng/Drinking 1.1 hours Household Work 1.1 hours Other 1.7 others 0 12 24 Source: Bureau Of Labor Sta s cs Average Daily Time Spent Per Person U.S. Employed Ci zens ages 25 to 54 Working 8.8 hours
  • 25. And in media, eyeballs are moving to digital, especially mobile. 45%$ 25%$ 17%$ 9%$ 7%$ 4%$ 44%$ 26%$ 16%$ 8%$ 8%$ 6%$ 43%$ 26%$ 15%$ 7%$ 7%$ 9%$ 42%$ 26%$ 14%$ 6%$ 5%$ 12%$ 38%$ 20%$ 12%$ 4%$ 5%$ 20%$ 0%$ 5%$ 10%$ 15%$ 20%$ 25%$ 30%$ 35%$ 40%$ 45%$ 50%$ TV$ Online$ Radio$ Print$ Other$ Mobile$ Source:(eMarketer,(August(2013( U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$
  • 26. People use phones while watching TV. 62% 39% 67% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mul ple Times A Week Daily %OfRespondents Source: Nielsen, BI Intelligence Nearly Half Of U.S. Popula on Uses Their Smartphones While Watching TV Every Day How o en do you use these devices while you watch TV? (U.S. data) 2Q 2012 1Q 2013
  • 27. Digital now accounts for more than ¼ of total ad spend. Offline All Other Online Mobile $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E (billions) U.S. Adver sing Source: IAB, U.S. Census Bureau, Stategy Analy cs. BI Intelligence es mates