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GP.Bullhound
The Fabled Northern Unicorn
28 March 2017
Strictly private and confidential
Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation
3
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10
# Tech
Cos.
The rise of technology
Source: Capital IQ, Financial Times Global 500
1996 2001 2006 2011 2017
0 2 1 3 5
0
5
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
4
Number of years to become a billion dollar revenue company
$bn
5
years
35
years
15
years
5
years
8
years
Disruption is increasing in velocity and magnitude
5
» Information
» Messaging
» Imaging
» Search
» Retailing
» Banking
» Entertainment
» Marketplaces
» Social networks
» Transportation
» Gaming
» Revolution
» Health
» Medicine
» Artificial intelligence
» 3D printing
» Currencies
» Energy
» Water
» Food
ARAB SPRING
SOLAR POWER
ENERGY STORAGE
CLEAN WATER
CRYPTOCURRENCY
AI MANUFACTURING
The low hanging fruits
Enabled by bandwidth
Enabled by smartphones
Taking care of basic needs
Enabled by Internet of Things
Steps of technology disruption
6
7
The increasingly crowded Unicorn club
Source: CBInsights – Private Unicorns since 2011
Date of $1bn Valuation
UNICORN
HUNTING PERMIT
MUST CHECK SPECIMEN FOR SLOWING GROWTH
RATES, WEAK FUNDAMENTALS, AND HIGH CASH BURNS
SEASON
START
2016
8
Unicorn hunting season – justified?
9
European Unicorns make money…
Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016
Note: CAGR is calculated based on data available, the amount of years taken into account varies across data set; (1) % of sample, sample includes 37 of the 47
companies; (2) company profitability based of EBITDA
» Unprofitable Unicorns
sacrifice profit for growth
» Average CAGR for
unprofitable Unicorns
141% vs 49% for
profitable Unicorns
» Unprofitable companies
are on average 4 years
younger
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)(2)
(2)
(2)
60%
of unicorns
are profitable(1)
PROFITABLE
UNICORNS
UNPROFITABLE
UNICORNS
40%
of unicorns
are unprofitable(1)
10
Unicorns are being built everywhere
Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016
» 10 new Unicorns spread across 7 different countries; US created 30
» Denmark and Switzerland created their first Unicorn
EUROPE US
SWEDEN
LUXEMBOURG
DENMARK
SWITZERLAND
ISRAEL
GERMANY
UK
30
10
11
Country
Cumulative
Value
$39.6bn $31.1bn $20.8bn $4.7bn $7.2bn $3.4bn $9.3bn $8.0bn $4.0bn $2.3bn $1.6bn $1.1bn $1.1bn $1.0bn
No. of
Unicorns
18 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
LTM
Additions
2 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Which country is the Unicorn champ?
Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016
12
12 $1bn tech businesses in the North
GP Bullhound Research – Northern Tech Revealed
Note: Valuation based on press estimates, most valuable defined as Northern headquartered businesses with valuations above $0.5bn as of 27 March 2017
*Indicates a private business
$8.6
$4.8
$2.4 $2.3
$1.9 $1.8
$1.5
$1.3 $1.1 $1.1 $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.8 $0.8 $0.7 $0.6 $0.6 $0.5
$bn
13
Unicorn Founders 14
Listed Leaders 15
Fast Followers 16
`
` `
``` `
```
`
Savvy Sellers 17
Local Dragons 18
Skilled Scientists 19
Electro Men 20
People Mashups 21
Trainspotters 22
Barmen and Baristas 23
Dynamic Talent 24
Our next challenge...
Cumulative value of European unicorns ($bn)
Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis.
Note: valuations as of March 2017 25
736
408
116
63
32 31 27
Apple Facebook Europe Uber The North Airbnb Snap
£3
LONDON
tel. +44 207 101 7560
52 Jermyn Street
London, SW1Y 6LX
United Kingdom
SAN FRANCISCO
tel. +1 415 986 0191
One Maritime Plaza Suite 1620
San Francisco, CA 94111
USA
STOCKHOLM
tel. +46 8 545 074 14
Birger Jarlsgatan 5
Stockholm, 111 45
Sweden
BERLIN
tel. +49 30 610 80 600
Oberwallstrasse 20
Berlin, 101 17
Germany
PARIS
tel. +33 1 82 88 43 40
45 rue de Lisbonne
75 008 Paris
France
MANCHESTER
tel. +44 161 413 5030
1 New York Street
Manchester, M1 4HD
United Kingdom

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Hugh Campbell - UKBAA Northern Investment Summit presentation

  • 1. GP.Bullhound The Fabled Northern Unicorn 28 March 2017 Strictly private and confidential
  • 3. 3 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 # Tech Cos. The rise of technology Source: Capital IQ, Financial Times Global 500 1996 2001 2006 2011 2017 0 2 1 3 5
  • 4. 0 5 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 4 Number of years to become a billion dollar revenue company $bn 5 years 35 years 15 years 5 years 8 years Disruption is increasing in velocity and magnitude
  • 5. 5 » Information » Messaging » Imaging » Search » Retailing » Banking » Entertainment » Marketplaces » Social networks » Transportation » Gaming » Revolution » Health » Medicine » Artificial intelligence » 3D printing » Currencies » Energy » Water » Food ARAB SPRING SOLAR POWER ENERGY STORAGE CLEAN WATER CRYPTOCURRENCY AI MANUFACTURING The low hanging fruits Enabled by bandwidth Enabled by smartphones Taking care of basic needs Enabled by Internet of Things Steps of technology disruption
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7 The increasingly crowded Unicorn club Source: CBInsights – Private Unicorns since 2011 Date of $1bn Valuation
  • 8. UNICORN HUNTING PERMIT MUST CHECK SPECIMEN FOR SLOWING GROWTH RATES, WEAK FUNDAMENTALS, AND HIGH CASH BURNS SEASON START 2016 8 Unicorn hunting season – justified?
  • 9. 9 European Unicorns make money… Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016 Note: CAGR is calculated based on data available, the amount of years taken into account varies across data set; (1) % of sample, sample includes 37 of the 47 companies; (2) company profitability based of EBITDA » Unprofitable Unicorns sacrifice profit for growth » Average CAGR for unprofitable Unicorns 141% vs 49% for profitable Unicorns » Unprofitable companies are on average 4 years younger (2) (2) (2) (2)(2) (2) (2) 60% of unicorns are profitable(1) PROFITABLE UNICORNS UNPROFITABLE UNICORNS 40% of unicorns are unprofitable(1)
  • 10. 10 Unicorns are being built everywhere Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016 » 10 new Unicorns spread across 7 different countries; US created 30 » Denmark and Switzerland created their first Unicorn EUROPE US SWEDEN LUXEMBOURG DENMARK SWITZERLAND ISRAEL GERMANY UK 30 10
  • 11. 11 Country Cumulative Value $39.6bn $31.1bn $20.8bn $4.7bn $7.2bn $3.4bn $9.3bn $8.0bn $4.0bn $2.3bn $1.6bn $1.1bn $1.1bn $1.0bn No. of Unicorns 18 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 LTM Additions 2 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Which country is the Unicorn champ? Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at April 2016
  • 12. 12 12 $1bn tech businesses in the North GP Bullhound Research – Northern Tech Revealed Note: Valuation based on press estimates, most valuable defined as Northern headquartered businesses with valuations above $0.5bn as of 27 March 2017 *Indicates a private business $8.6 $4.8 $2.4 $2.3 $1.9 $1.8 $1.5 $1.3 $1.1 $1.1 $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.8 $0.8 $0.7 $0.6 $0.6 $0.5 $bn
  • 13. 13
  • 16. Fast Followers 16 ` ` ` ``` ` ``` `
  • 25. Our next challenge... Cumulative value of European unicorns ($bn) Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis. Note: valuations as of March 2017 25 736 408 116 63 32 31 27 Apple Facebook Europe Uber The North Airbnb Snap
  • 26. £3
  • 27. LONDON tel. +44 207 101 7560 52 Jermyn Street London, SW1Y 6LX United Kingdom SAN FRANCISCO tel. +1 415 986 0191 One Maritime Plaza Suite 1620 San Francisco, CA 94111 USA STOCKHOLM tel. +46 8 545 074 14 Birger Jarlsgatan 5 Stockholm, 111 45 Sweden BERLIN tel. +49 30 610 80 600 Oberwallstrasse 20 Berlin, 101 17 Germany PARIS tel. +33 1 82 88 43 40 45 rue de Lisbonne 75 008 Paris France MANCHESTER tel. +44 161 413 5030 1 New York Street Manchester, M1 4HD United Kingdom

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Hc
  2. Higher bar in Europe – rev multiples 2x higher in the US versus Europe – 20x versus 40x in the US Also growing really fast – average over 99% pa Raising lots of money Average revenue $265m in 2014
  3. HC
  4. HC
  5. HC