The document outlines an agenda for a strategic foresight workshop focusing on Toronto in 2030. It includes background on strategic foresight, tips for the process, and steps to identify trends, understand drivers of change, create scenarios, and inform strategies. Participants will go through a rapid foresight process to envision four possible futures for Toronto in 2030 based on two factors changing at different speeds. The goal is to experiment with foresight tools and consider how strategies may need to adapt to different possible futures.

1. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 1
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT
WORKSHOP
SSE-O

2. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 2
TODAY’S SESSION
A BIT OF BACKGROUND.
THEN, WE ARE GOING TO ROLL UP
OUR SLEEVES & DIG IN.
AT THE END, WE WILL HAVE A QUICK
REFLECTION.

3. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 3
WHAT IS STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?

4. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 4
WHAT IS STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?
GATHERING INTELLIGENCE ABOUT
POSSIBLE FUTURES TO INFORM
PRESENT DAY DECISIONS

5. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 5
WHY STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?

6. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 6
WHY STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?

7. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 7
WHY STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?
SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURS ARE
CREATING INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS
FOR TOMORROW . . . SO THEY NEED
TO RESPOND TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
WITH VISION AND ONGOING
AWARENESS

8. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 8
HOW DO WE DO
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?

9. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 9
HOW DO WE DO
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT?
IDENTIFY
TRENDS
UNDERSTAND
DRIVERS
CREATE
SCENARIOS
INFORM
STRATEGY

10. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 10
WE WILL EXPERIMENT WITH A RAPID
FORESIGHT PROCESS TOGETHER . . .
OUR FOCUS IS
TORONTO IN 2030
[BUT YOU COULD USE THIS TO EXPLORE THE FUTURE
OF THE UNITED CHURCH, ALTERNATIVE HEALTH, FARM-
ING, IMMIGRATION IN CANADA, ETC.]

11. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 11
TIPS
1. PAY ATTENTION TO WEAK SIGNALS OF CHANGE.
2. UNDERSTAND THAT USEFUL INSIGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE AT
FIRST APPEAR RIDICULOUS.
3. CHALLENGE PRESENT ASSUMPTIONS AND PLAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES.
4. RIGOROUSLY IMAGINE THE FUTURE - STRETCHING
PLAUSIBILITY, BUT NOT BREAKING IT.
5. EXPLORE INTERSECTIONS, NOT ISOLATED EVENTS.
6. DON’T JUST THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE, PUT YOURSELF IN THE
FUTURE.
7. THERE ARE MULTIPLE POSSIBLE REACTIONS TO THE FUTURE:
ADAPTATION, MITIGATION OR INFLUENCE.

12. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 12
IDENTIFYING TRENDS
CURRENT CHANGES OVER TIME
SOCIAL (DEMOGRAPHICS, LIFESTYLES, SOCIAL AND CULTURAL VALUES, BEHAVIOR)
TECHNOLOGICAL (INNOVATION, PRODUCTS, COMMUNICATION, RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT)
ECONOMICAL (JOBS, INCOME, TRADE, PROFIT, TAXES)
ENVIRONMENTAL (ECOSYSTEMS< WATER, FOOD, ENERGY)
POLITICAL(POWER, LAWS, INTERESTS, DIRECTIONS, AGREEMENTS)

13. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 13
IDENTIFYING TRENDS
TASK: IDENTIFY ONE CURRENT TREND IN TORONTO RIGHT
NOW AND WRITE IT ON A POST-IT
TWO WORLDS,
ONE CITY
(INCOME
POLARIZATION ANDCONCENTRATION)
GIVE IT A FUN NAME.
CALL OUT IT’S SIGNALS.
EXTRAPOLATE IT TO 2030.

14. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 14
UNDERSTAND DRIVERS
THE UNDERLYING FORCES OF CHANGE
TASK: MAP THE INFLUENCES
BETWEEN TRENDS
AND KEY UNDERLYING
FORCES.
IDENTIFY THE MOST
CRITICAL AND UNCERTAIN
DRIVERS.

15. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 15
CREATE SCENARIOS
STORIES OF POSSIBLE FUTURE WORLDS
THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO BUILD SCENARIOS. WE ARE
GOING TO USE A SIMPLE 2 BY 2 MATRIX TO IMAGINE
TORONTO IN 2030.
HIGHLOW
FAST
SLOW
SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
SCENARIO 4

16. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 16
CREATE SCENARIOS
WHAT WOULD IT BE LIKE TO LIVE IN THE CITY IN THIS
FUTURE? HOW IS IT DIFFERENT THAN TODAY?
WHAT MIGHT SURPRISE YOU ABOUT THIS FUTURE?
WHAT WOULD STAY THE SAME?
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES IN THE NEWS? WHAT
HAPPENED IN THE PAST THAT CREATED THIS?
TASK: IN A SMALL GROUP, WORK TO OUTLINE A
SCENARIO FROM ONE OF THE FOUR QUADRANTS.

17. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 17
INFORM STRATEGY
PLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS
SCENARIOS CAN BE UTILIZED TO INSPIRE NEW
STRATEGIES, TEST CURRENT STRATEGIES, AND REFINE
DIRECTIONS.

18. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 18
INFORM STRATEGY
PLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS
TASK: IDENTIFY NEW AND OLD STRATEGIES FOR THE
CITY OF TORONTO AND SEE IF THEY WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL IN EACH OF THE FOUR POSSIBLE
FUTURES.
SCENARIOS
1 2 3 4
Invest in improving supports for low-income families
Build more parks and green spaces in the city

19. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 19
NOW THAT IS STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT.
BUT IT IS NOT JUST A ONE
TIME THING. THERE IS A NEED
FOR ONGOING SCANNING AND
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CHANGES.
PLUS, RESEARCH & DIVERSE
VOICES MAKES THE PROCESS MORE
RELIABLE.

20. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 20
FORESIGHT RESOURCES
Example Foresight Projects
2020 Media Futures (OCADU) https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNb1l5MDR5WUp4eUE/edit?usp=sharing
Future of Asia (Policy Horizons Canada) http://www.horizons.gc.ca/sites/default/files/Publication-alt-format/pdf_
version_0240_1.67mb_57pages_1.pdf
Future of Specialized Health Care Providers (OCADU Student Project) http://www.slideshare.net/JosinaV/dossier-future-of-
specialized-services-sfi-foresight-project?utm_source=slideshow&utm_medium=ssemail&utm_campaign=post_upload
Foresight Resources
Scenario Planning [UK Horizon Scanning Centre] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNNHRVZ2FEdXZwRnc/
edit?usp=sharing
Future Savvy [Adam Gordon] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSkVWVlVKaGpmQlE/edit?usp=sharing
Foresight Methodology [Popper] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing
Scenario Based Strategy In Practice [Louis van der Merwe] https://drive.google.com/file/
d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing
Learnings from the Long View [Peter Schwartz] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSjdQamw3Y2kxOFE/
edit?usp=sharing
Three Horizons Method [Hodgson & Curry] http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-1/A01.pdf

21. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 21
REFLECTIONS
HOW DID THIS WACKY FUTURES
STUFF FEEL FOR YOU?
WHAT DID YOU LIKE/DISLIKE ABOUT
THIS PROCESS?
HOW COULD YOU IMAGINE USING
THIS FOR VENTURE DEVELOPMENT?