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Future-proofing Africa’s livestock sector policies: lessons from African countries and the Covid-19 pandemic

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This presentation by ILRI's Dr. Iain Wright examines Africa's livestock sector policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Future-proofing Africa’s livestock sector policies: lessons from African countries and the Covid-19 pandemic

  1. 1. Better lives through livestock Future-proofing Africa’s livestock sector policies: lessons from African countries and the Covid-19 pandemic Iain Wright Deputy Director General – Integrates Sciences Malabo-Montpellier Panel Webinar 9 December 2020
  2. 2. Better lives through livestock Global context
  3. 3. 3 % growth in demand for livestock products to 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 3 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI. Beef Pork Poultry Milk Increases not because of overconsumption! OECD average 2018 = 69 kg/capita meat SSA average 2018 = 10 kg/capita meat
  4. 4. 4 Proportion of livestock-derived foods produced by small farms in 2010
  5. 5. 5 Food and nutrition security, SDGs and livestock Food and nutrition security
  6. 6. Better lives through livestock Nutrition and food security
  7. 7. 7 Nutritional divides among the world’s 7.5 billion people
  8. 8. 8 Livestock-derived foods are critical for human health, especially for new mothers and young children • About 30% of African children under five years of age are stunted • Africa is losing ~10% of its GDP due to stunting. • Milk, meat and eggs provide key nutrients (vitamins A, B12, choline, iron, zinc) in highly bioavailable forms for humans • Especially critical for addressing nutrient deficiencies in undernourished people • One egg a day can reduce stunting (by 47%) among in 6–9 month-old babies when stunting levels are high • Growing evidence that it is impossible for babies to achieve adequate nutrition in the first 1000 days of life without access to livestock-derived foods • And that livestock-derived foods are essential for at least 3000 days, and important in appropriate amounts for a healthy diet throughout life
  9. 9. 9 Need to improve access to animal source foods Hirvonen, et al., 2020
  10. 10. Better lives through livestock Jobs and economic development
  11. 11. 11 Role of livestock • The global livestock sector on average makes up 40% of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP); and 15–80% in developing countries • It’s estimated that the market value of Africa’s animal-source foods will grow to some USD151 billion by 2050 (from about USD37bn in 2019) • Most livestock products in developing countries are sold ‘informally’ and locally • Varied activities all along the world’s numerous livestock value chains provide uncommonly large numbers of jobs. • Of the over half a billion small holder mixed crop-livestock farmers in the world, two-thirds of livestock keepers are rural women
  12. 12. 12 Women at the nexus • Two-thirds of the small holder mixed crop-livestock farmers in the world are women • Women have essential roles in household nutrition • Livestock can be the means to bring about transformative change in millions of womens’ lives
  13. 13. Better lives through livestock Food safety
  14. 14. 14 Health and economic burden of foodborne diseases 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 Asia Africa Other developing Developed Other toxins Aflatoxins Helminths Microbial Source: Havelaar et al.( 2015) 31 hazards • 600 mio illnesses • 420,000 deaths • 33 million DALYszoonoses non zoonoses Burden (DALYs) Cost estimates for 2016 (US$ billion) Productivity loss 95 Illness treatment 15 Trade loss or cost 5 to 7
  15. 15. 15 Investment in food safety in Africa • 80% of livestock products sold in informal markets • 80% of investment in food safely in Africa is in on the formal sector • Need to focus on building capacity on the informal sector • Identify risks, not hazards • Build consumer awareness • Training of traders • Upgrade infrastructure Source: Food Safety In Africa: Past Endeavors And Future Directions (GFSP, 2019) Top 10 countries for food safety investment
  16. 16. Better lives through livestock Livestock and the environment
  17. 17. 17 Reducing GHC emission intensity FAO and GDF, 2018
  18. 18. 18 Production of methane falls as animal productivity rises
  19. 19. Better lives through livestock Effects of Covid
  20. 20. Effects of COVID-19 on livestock value chains in Northern Kenya (Phone survey) Inputs (agrovets and other service providers) Reduced sales due to limited demand by producers Producers/ Pastoralists Reduced livestock sales due to closure of markets Reduced income from livestock sales Limited access to market information Reduced labour force from non- family members Aggregators Reduced livestock stocks Reduced access due to border , inter- county restrictions, curfew & market closures Processors Fewer animals for slaughter due to border restrictions and curfew Abattoirs running below capacity Reduction in quantities processed Distributor- w/sale & retailers Reduction in livestock numbers being sold Increased cost of international trade due to closure of borders and movement restrictions Consumers Reduced purchasing power due to fewer livestock sales, unemployment Reduction in quantity of foods consumed & food security Reduced use of health and nutrition services
  21. 21. Effects on livestock markets and retailers 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 JA N- 20 F E B- 20 MA R- 20 A P R- 20 MA Y - 20 JUN- 20 NUMBERSOLD MONTH VOLUMES SOLD BY SPECIES Cattle Camel Goats Sheep 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 January February March April Kilograms of meat sold by month Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Wajir Turkana Total
  22. 22. Effects on consumers 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Wajir Turkana Total meanIncome(Kes) Household mean income in KES by county January February March April • Significant reduction in household incomes across the 5 counties • Reduction in consumption frequency of nutrient dense meat, eggs, fruits and vegetables • Reduction in number and quantity of meals consumed per day • Reduction in number of ante- & post-natal visits: e.g. in Garissa, the % children 6-59 months getting micronutrient supplementation dropped to 30% in May 2020 (71% May 2019)
  23. 23. 23 Conclusions from Africa Regional Meeting of GASL, September 2020 • Major value chain disruptions at all stages (producers – consumers) • Effects of Covid 19 still largely unquantified. It has been difficult to make formal assessments. Some of the impacts could be under rated. • Digitalization and digital extension provide innovative options for wider delivery, reach and more impact. We might reach there faster!! • Some livestock systems are more resilient than we thought. • This is an opportunity to promote and accelerate the implementation of a One Health approach.
  24. 24. 24 Pandemics and endemics: One Health approach needed Prepare – detect – prevent – respond Surveillance: Early detection Respond: Apply latest biosciences Respond: minimize food borne risks and hazards Respond: institutional coordination and action at every level
  25. 25. 25 Understand and address the drivers of pandemics Seven major anthropogenic drivers of zoonotic disease emergence 1. Increasing demand for animal protein 2. Unsustainable agricultural intensification 3. Increased use and exploitation of wildlife 4. Unsustainable utilization of natural resources 5. Travel and transportation 6. Changes in food supply chains 7. Climate change United Nations Environment Programme and International Livestock Research Institute (2020). Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission. Nairobi, Kenya.
  26. 26. Better lives through livestock Investing in livestock
  27. 27. 27 Global commodity values 2018: animal source foods, five of the top ten 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Milk, whole fresh (cow+buffalo) Rice, paddy meat, cattle meat, chicken wheat meat, pig maize Eggs, hen, in shell potatoes Soybeans Current million USD (value for 2018) Livestock is 40% of AgGDP globally 15-80% in LMICs
  28. 28. 28 Total Official Development Assistance to developing countries, USD million 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ODA Agric Livestock
  29. 29. 29 Percentage ODA disbursements for agriculture and livestock 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 agric % ODA Livestock % ODA
  30. 30. 30 Under-investment in livestock sector • Contribution of the livestock sector in socio-economic development is not fully appreciated – lack of empirical evidence to counter the prevailing perceptions – Lack of data on livestock sector • The Livestock Development Startegy for Africa (LiDeSA) sets AU’s agenda for livestock in Africa to enable the sector to contribute to achievement of Malabo Declaration Commitments • But currently livestock is poorly represented in the CAADP process – no livestock specific indicators • Livestock need to be firmly embedded in NAIPs, and reflected in NDPs and MTEFs
  31. 31. 31 • Livestock stakeholders, under the leadership of AU-IBAR are reviewing indicators and will propose 2-3 potential livestock indicators Increasing the role and contribution of livestock in CAADP
  32. 32. 32 National Livestock Masterplans - Rationale • Under-investment in the livestock sector is a major constraint to the livestock sector contributing more to national development goals • Agriculture or Livestock Ministers lack evidence (returns on investment) to get financial resources for livestock development (from Ministries of Finance) • Lack of human capacity for quantitative livestock sector planning is also common • Effective livestock development requires sector analysis to understand the current situation, and foresight analysis to set long-term strategy and make action plans • Governments need realistic action plans (LMPs) for meeting targets in 5-year national economic development plans
  33. 33. 33 LMP Process and Deliverables • LMP is a five year investment plan or road map – with targets and goal-posts, a strategy, and budgeting of financial and human resources • A LMP is built on quantitative fact-based analysis of the past and current trends (baseline livestock sector analysis) and a long-run (15-year) foresight analysis (Livestock sector strategy or LSS) • The baseline, LSS and LMP are all quantitative, but stakeholder engagement and consultation is critical for success
  34. 34. 34 Ethiopia Livestock Masterplan • Provided strategies and targets for the Government of Ethiopia’s second five-year Growth and Transformation Plan • Estimated that the LMP has resulted in about $300m of public and $200M of private sector investment.
  35. 35. 35 Livestock masterplans Completed Ethiopia Tanzania Rwanda Uzbekistan Bihar (India) In progess Gambia Kenya Odisha (India)
  36. 36. Better lives through livestock Building resilient livestock systems
  37. 37. Steps towards resilience 1. Protect assets 2. Improve productivity 3. Enhance markets and improve value chain performance
  38. 38. 38 Index-based livestock insurance in pastoral areas • 2010: Offered as a micro-level commercial product in northern Kenya • 2012: Offered in Southern Ethiopia • 2015: Government of Kenya introduced Kenyan Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP), a public-private partnership. Fully subsidized coverage to 18,000 vulnerable households in 8 Kenyan countries. Plans to scale-up to 100,000 households in 14 Kenyan counties with partial ally subsidized voluntary sales to incentivize investments of the private sector. • 2018: WFP offered fully subsidized coverage in the Somali region of Ethiopia. Currently about 15,500 households benefiting
  39. 39. o Feasibility studies finalized in Djibouti, Somalia and Niger o Studies are ongoing in Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal o In June 2019, a high-level policy meeting organized by ILRI in Addis Ababa, with ministerial representatives of 7 IGAD countries have indicated interest in launching IBLI as part of their drought risk management policies. o In late 2019, the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the EU launched the Horn of Africa Initiative, aimed at scaling IBLI at regional level in 8 IGAD countries. Legend Rangeland Mask Non-Rangelands Rangelands IBLI - regional scaling out
  40. 40. 40 Improving productivity • Low productivity - milk yield in Sub-Saharan Africa is only 6% of OECD counties • Huge opportunity to raise productivity though better feeding, breeding and animal health services • New technologies available • genomic based selection • Improved forages • new vaccines • Technologies and interventions need to be responsive to the needs of different categories of farmers, e.g. smallholders, women and men
  41. 41. 41 Market and value chain development • Improved understanding of market demand and market information systems • Collective action for economies of scale • Institutional and value chain capacity building in food safety practices and standards • Improved processing infrastructure and cold chains • Digital technologies and products such as digital finance, e-commerce, other innovations • Policies for promotion of interregional markets • Branding and certification • Access to capital and credit for all value chain actors • Enabling environment for private sector investment
  42. 42. 42
  43. 43. THANK YOU

This presentation by ILRI's Dr. Iain Wright examines Africa's livestock sector policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

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