This presentation by ILRI's Dr. Iain Wright examines Africa's livestock sector policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

1. Better lives through livestock
Future-proofing Africa’s livestock sector policies:
lessons from African countries and the Covid-19 pandemic
Iain Wright
Deputy Director General – Integrates Sciences
Malabo-Montpellier Panel Webinar
9 December 2020

2. Better lives through livestock
Global context

3. 3
% growth in demand for livestock products to 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
3
0
50
100
150
200
250 E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030.
Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk
Increases not because of overconsumption!
OECD average 2018 = 69 kg/capita meat
SSA average 2018 = 10 kg/capita meat

4. 4
Proportion of livestock-derived foods produced by small
farms in 2010

5. 5
Food and nutrition security, SDGs and livestock
Food and nutrition
security

6. Better lives through livestock
Nutrition and food security

7. 7
Nutritional divides among the world’s 7.5 billion people

8. 8
Livestock-derived foods are critical for human health, especially for new
mothers and young children
• About 30% of African children under five years of age are stunted
• Africa is losing ~10% of its GDP due to stunting.
• Milk, meat and eggs provide key nutrients (vitamins A, B12, choline, iron, zinc) in highly
bioavailable forms for humans
• Especially critical for addressing nutrient deficiencies in undernourished people
• One egg a day can reduce stunting (by 47%) among in 6–9 month-old babies when stunting levels
are high
• Growing evidence that it is impossible for babies to achieve adequate nutrition in the first 1000
days of life without access to livestock-derived foods
• And that livestock-derived foods are essential for at least 3000 days, and important in appropriate
amounts for a healthy diet throughout life

9. 9
Need to improve access to animal source foods
Hirvonen, et al., 2020

10. Better lives through livestock
Jobs and economic development

11. 11
Role of livestock
• The global livestock sector on average makes up 40% of agricultural gross
domestic product (GDP); and 15–80% in developing countries
• It’s estimated that the market value of Africa’s animal-source foods will
grow to some USD151 billion by 2050 (from about USD37bn in 2019)
• Most livestock products in developing countries are sold ‘informally’ and
locally
• Varied activities all along the world’s numerous livestock value chains
provide uncommonly large numbers of jobs.
• Of the over half a billion small holder mixed crop-livestock farmers in the
world, two-thirds of livestock keepers are rural women

12. 12
Women at the nexus
• Two-thirds of the small holder mixed
crop-livestock farmers in the world
are women
• Women have essential roles in
household nutrition
• Livestock can be the means to bring
about transformative change in
millions of womens’ lives

13. Better lives through livestock
Food safety

14. 14
Health and economic burden of foodborne diseases
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
Asia Africa Other
developing
Developed
Other toxins
Aflatoxins
Helminths
Microbial
Source: Havelaar et al.( 2015)
31 hazards
• 600 mio illnesses
• 420,000 deaths
• 33 million DALYszoonoses
non zoonoses
Burden (DALYs)
Cost estimates for 2016 (US$ billion)
Productivity loss 95
Illness treatment 15
Trade loss or cost 5 to 7

15. 15
Investment in food safety in Africa
• 80% of livestock products sold in informal
markets
• 80% of investment in food safely in Africa is in
on the formal sector
• Need to focus on building capacity on the
informal sector
• Identify risks, not hazards
• Build consumer awareness
• Training of traders
• Upgrade infrastructure
Source: Food Safety In Africa: Past Endeavors And Future
Directions (GFSP, 2019)
Top 10 countries for food safety investment

16. Better lives through livestock
Livestock and the environment

17. 17
Reducing GHC emission intensity
FAO and GDF, 2018

18. 18
Production of methane falls as animal productivity rises

19. Better lives through livestock
Effects of Covid

20. Effects of COVID-19 on livestock value chains in Northern
Kenya (Phone survey)
Inputs (agrovets
and other service
providers)
Reduced sales due to
limited demand by
producers
Producers/
Pastoralists
Reduced livestock
sales due to closure
of markets
Reduced income
from livestock sales
Limited access to
market information
Reduced labour
force from non-
family members
Aggregators
Reduced livestock
stocks
Reduced access due
to border , inter-
county restrictions,
curfew & market
closures
Processors
Fewer animals for
slaughter due to
border restrictions and
curfew
Abattoirs running
below capacity
Reduction in
quantities processed
Distributor-
w/sale &
retailers
Reduction in
livestock numbers
being sold
Increased cost of
international trade
due to closure of
borders and
movement
restrictions
Consumers
Reduced purchasing
power due to fewer
livestock sales,
unemployment
Reduction in
quantity of foods
consumed & food
security
Reduced use of
health and nutrition
services

21. Effects on livestock markets and retailers
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
JA N- 20 F E B- 20 MA R- 20 A P R- 20 MA Y - 20 JUN- 20
NUMBERSOLD
MONTH
VOLUMES SOLD BY SPECIES
Cattle Camel Goats Sheep
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
January February March April
Kilograms of meat sold by
month
Isiolo Marsabit Garissa
Wajir Turkana Total

22. Effects on consumers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Wajir Turkana Total
meanIncome(Kes)
Household mean income in KES by county
January February March April
• Significant reduction in household incomes across the 5 counties
• Reduction in consumption frequency of nutrient dense meat, eggs, fruits
and vegetables
• Reduction in number and quantity of
meals consumed per day
• Reduction in number of ante- & post-natal
visits: e.g. in Garissa, the % children 6-59
months getting micronutrient
supplementation dropped to 30% in May
2020 (71% May 2019)

23. 23
Conclusions from Africa Regional Meeting of GASL, September
2020
• Major value chain disruptions at all stages (producers – consumers)
• Effects of Covid 19 still largely unquantified. It has been difficult to
make formal assessments. Some of the impacts could be under rated.
• Digitalization and digital extension provide innovative options for wider
delivery, reach and more impact. We might reach there faster!!
• Some livestock systems are more resilient than we thought.
• This is an opportunity to promote and accelerate the implementation
of a One Health approach.

24. 24
Pandemics and endemics: One Health approach needed
Prepare – detect – prevent – respond
Surveillance:
Early detection
Respond:
Apply latest biosciences
Respond: minimize food
borne risks and hazards
Respond: institutional
coordination and action at
every level

25. 25
Understand and address the drivers of pandemics
Seven major anthropogenic
drivers of zoonotic disease
emergence
1. Increasing demand for
animal protein
2. Unsustainable agricultural
intensification
3. Increased use and
exploitation of wildlife
4. Unsustainable utilization
of natural resources
5. Travel and transportation
6. Changes in food supply
chains
7. Climate change
United Nations Environment Programme and International Livestock Research Institute (2020). Preventing the Next
Pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission. Nairobi, Kenya.

26. Better lives through livestock
Investing in livestock

27. 27
Global commodity values 2018: animal source foods, five
of the top ten
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Milk, whole
fresh
(cow+buffalo)
Rice, paddy meat, cattle meat, chicken wheat meat, pig maize Eggs, hen, in
shell
potatoes Soybeans
Current million USD
(value for 2018)
Livestock is 40% of AgGDP globally
15-80% in LMICs

28. 28
Total Official Development Assistance to developing
countries, USD million
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ODA Agric Livestock

29. 29
Percentage ODA disbursements for agriculture and livestock
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
agric % ODA Livestock % ODA

30. 30
Under-investment in livestock sector
• Contribution of the livestock sector in socio-economic development is
not fully appreciated
– lack of empirical evidence to counter the prevailing perceptions
– Lack of data on livestock sector
• The Livestock Development Startegy for Africa (LiDeSA) sets AU’s agenda
for livestock in Africa to enable the sector to contribute to achievement
of Malabo Declaration Commitments
• But currently livestock is poorly represented in the CAADP process – no
livestock specific indicators
• Livestock need to be firmly embedded in NAIPs, and reflected in NDPs
and MTEFs

31. 31
• Livestock stakeholders, under
the leadership of AU-IBAR are
reviewing indicators and will
propose 2-3 potential livestock
indicators
Increasing the role and contribution of livestock in CAADP

32. 32
National Livestock Masterplans - Rationale
• Under-investment in the livestock sector is a major constraint to the
livestock sector contributing more to national development goals
• Agriculture or Livestock Ministers lack evidence (returns on
investment) to get financial resources for livestock development (from
Ministries of Finance)
• Lack of human capacity for quantitative livestock sector planning is
also common
• Effective livestock development requires sector analysis to understand
the current situation, and foresight analysis to set long-term strategy
and make action plans
• Governments need realistic action plans (LMPs) for meeting targets in
5-year national economic development plans

33. 33
LMP Process and Deliverables
• LMP is a five year investment plan or road map – with targets
and goal-posts, a strategy, and budgeting of financial and
human resources
• A LMP is built on quantitative fact-based analysis of the past
and current trends (baseline livestock sector analysis) and a
long-run (15-year) foresight analysis (Livestock sector
strategy or LSS)
• The baseline, LSS and LMP are all quantitative, but
stakeholder engagement and consultation is critical for
success

34. 34
Ethiopia Livestock Masterplan
• Provided strategies and targets
for the Government of
Ethiopia’s second five-year
Growth and Transformation
Plan
• Estimated that the LMP has
resulted in about $300m of
public and $200M of private
sector investment.

35. 35
Livestock masterplans
Completed
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Rwanda
Uzbekistan
Bihar (India)
In progess
Gambia
Kenya
Odisha (India)

36. Better lives through livestock
Building resilient livestock systems

37. Steps towards
resilience
1. Protect assets
2. Improve productivity
3. Enhance markets and
improve value chain
performance

38. 38
Index-based livestock insurance in pastoral areas
• 2010: Offered as a micro-level commercial product in northern Kenya
• 2012: Offered in Southern Ethiopia
• 2015: Government of Kenya introduced Kenyan Livestock Insurance
Program (KLIP), a public-private partnership. Fully subsidized
coverage to 18,000 vulnerable households in 8 Kenyan countries.
Plans to scale-up to 100,000 households in 14 Kenyan counties with
partial ally subsidized voluntary sales to incentivize investments of
the private sector.
• 2018: WFP offered fully subsidized coverage in the Somali region of
Ethiopia. Currently about 15,500 households benefiting

39. o Feasibility studies finalized in Djibouti, Somalia and
Niger
o Studies are ongoing in Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali,
Senegal
o In June 2019, a high-level policy meeting organized
by ILRI in Addis Ababa, with ministerial
representatives of 7 IGAD countries have indicated
interest in launching IBLI as part of their drought risk
management policies.
o In late 2019, the World Bank, the African
Development Bank and the EU launched the Horn of
Africa Initiative, aimed at scaling IBLI at regional level
in 8 IGAD countries.
Legend
Rangeland Mask
Non-Rangelands
Rangelands
IBLI - regional scaling out

40. 40
Improving productivity
• Low productivity - milk yield in Sub-Saharan Africa is only 6% of
OECD counties
• Huge opportunity to raise productivity though better feeding,
breeding and animal health services
• New technologies available
• genomic based selection
• Improved forages
• new vaccines
• Technologies and interventions need to be responsive to the needs
of different categories of farmers, e.g. smallholders, women and
men

41. 41
Market and value chain development
• Improved understanding of market demand and market information
systems
• Collective action for economies of scale
• Institutional and value chain capacity building in food safety practices
and standards
• Improved processing infrastructure and cold chains
• Digital technologies and products such as digital finance, e-commerce,
other innovations
• Policies for promotion of interregional markets
• Branding and certification
• Access to capital and credit for all value chain actors
• Enabling environment for private sector investment

42. 42

43. THANK YOU