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Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Ali Shakouri

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Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.

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Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Ali Shakouri

  1. 1. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Can Renewables Save the World? Ali Shakouri Baskin School of Engineering University of California Santa Cruz http://quantum.soe.ucsc.edu/ UCSC Silicon Valley Center/NASA Ames; 11 February 20091
  2. 2. World Marketed Energy Use by A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Fuel Type 1980-2030 2050: 25-30TW 13TW 34% 28% 38% 24% 26% Share of World Total 23% 8% 7% 6% 6% DOE Energy Information Administration (2007) 2 2
  3. 3. US Energy Consumption A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 3
  4. 4. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Martin Green, UNSW 4
  5. 5. Cost of Renewable Energy A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Levelized cents/kWh in constant $2000 100 40 PV Wind COE cents/kWh COE cents/kWh 80 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 70 15 10 Solar thermal Biomass Geothermal COE cents/kWh 60 COE cents/kWh COE cents/kWh 8 12 50 9 6 40 30 6 4 20 3 2 10 0 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office Keith Wipke, NREL These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002 5
  6. 6. Microprocessor Evolution A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 1 Billion K 1,000,000 Transistors 100,000 Pentium® 4 Pentium® III 10,000 Pentium® II Pentium® 1,000 i486 i386 100 80286 8086 10 1 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 6
  7. 7. Airplane Speed/Efficiency Evolution A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 US Energy Intensity (MJ) Airplane Speed per available seat km @ 160kg payload/seat NLR-CR-2005-669;Peeters P.M., Middel McMasters & Cummings, Journal of J., Hoolhorst A. Aircraft, Jan-Feb 2002 7
  8. 8. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Felix’s forecasts of Nuclear US energy consumption Natural in year 2000 gas (early 1970’s) Oil Coal Vaclav Smil, Energy at the Crossroads, 2005 8
  9. 9. A. Shakouri 11/25/2008 A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Nate Lewis, Caltech 9
  10. 10. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Amount of land needed for 20 TW at 1% efficiency: 9% of land Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley 10
  11. 11. Biofuels A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Dan Kammen, Berkeley 11
  12. 12. Solar Energy Potential A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 12 TW 2.0-2.9 4.0-4.9 6.0-6.9 12
  13. 13. Energy Storage Options A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Specific Power (W/kg) Combustion Engine Specific Energy (Wh/kg) 13
  14. 14. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Vaclav Smil Energy at the Crossroads 14
  15. 15. Power ~3.3TW A. Shakouri 11/25/2008 A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 Rejected 1.3TW Energy 61% Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow 15
  16. 16. Can Renewables Save the World? A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 • Fossil fuels have excellent energy characteristics. • Wind/ geothermal are among the cheapest of renewables. There is potential for significant growth but they can not solve our energy problem. • Solar energy has the potential to provide all our energy needs. – Currently expensive; it is intermittent. • Currently no clear options for large scale energy storage • Biomass has the potential to provide part of transportation energy needs – Cellulosic biofuels and algaes are interesting but they have not demonstrated large scale/long term potential. One has to consider the full ecosystem impact (water, food, etc.). 16
  17. 17. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 World Average John Bowers, UCSB 17
  18. 18. Can Renewables Save the World? A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 • If our goal is to have a planet where everybody has a level of life similar to developed countries, energy need is enormous and it is not clear if we can do this by working on the supply side alone. • Energy efficiency is helpful but it is not enough. • We need to consider changes in lifestyle, city planning and social structure (transportation, lodging, grid). 18
  19. 19. Plan B for Energy A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 September 2006; Scientific American; W. Wayt Gibbs • WAVES AND TIDES (Reality factor 5) • HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND (Reality factor 4) • NANOTECH SOLAR CELLS (Reality factor 4) • DESIGNER MICROBES (Reality factor 4) • NUCLEAR FUSION (Reality factor 3) • SPACE-BASED SOLAR (Reality factor 3) • A GLOBAL SUPERGRID (Reality factor 2) • SCI-FI SOLUTIONS (Reality factor 1) – Cold Fusion and Bubble Fusion – Matter-Antimatter Reactors 19
  20. 20. EE80J Renewable Energy Sources Spring 2009, Also Summer 2009 A. Shakouri 2/11/2009 • Energy, power and thermodynamics • Home energy audit • Power plants, nuclear power • Solar energy • Wind energy, hydropower, geothermal • Biomass, hydrogen, fuel cells • Economics, Environmental and Societal Impacts EE181J Renewable Energies in Practice (July-August 2009) CA/Denmark summer school (UCSC, UC Davis, UC Merced, Techn. Univ. Denmark, Roskilde) UCSC Courses 20

Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.

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