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Photovoltaics

Peter Borden


11 January 2009




                  Applied Materials External Use
Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Supply
    U.S. Annual Electricity Demand



                      Nevada
          ...
Solar America volume-driven predictions



                             PG&E E1 tiered residential rate/kWhr

            ...
PV growing rapidly, but small compared to demand


                                                   60% growth!




    ...
Domestic rooftops – a great early market


                                                    2.7 kW PV array
           ...
Commercial Rooftop (grid-connected)




                                             Google – 1.5 MW
Applied Matrials – 2 ...
Solar Farms




Biggest solar farm is 65MW;
farms over 100MW are in
the near future!




  7
                             ...
Scaling changes market dynamics




    Lower cost enabled FPDs to replace CRTs
8
                   Applied Materials Ext...
Module manufacturing cost scaling
                                     100


                                             ...
The two mainstream types of PV

        Wafer-based Crystal Silicon                                      Thin Film




   ...
2007 Module Efficiency – c-Si and Thin Film
                                                                              ...
Summary
 PV is one of many players in the energy picture. Flexible system
  size, low maintenance enable it to effectivel...
13
     Applied Materials External Use
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Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Peter Borden

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Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.

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Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Peter Borden

  1. 1. Photovoltaics Peter Borden 11 January 2009 Applied Materials External Use
  2. 2. Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Supply U.S. Annual Electricity Demand Nevada 120 miles x 120 miles = 0.4% of total U.S. land area = 1/3 of U.S. land covered by roadways = 2.5 times the area of all single-family residential rooftops = 400 times 2008 display glass demand (100 km2) Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Applied Materials External Use
  3. 3. Solar America volume-driven predictions PG&E E1 tiered residential rate/kWhr >3.0X 2-3.0X 1.3-2.0X 1-1.3X Baseline (F) (F) (F) 3 3 Applied Materials External Use
  4. 4. PV growing rapidly, but small compared to demand 60% growth! Module shortage due to silicon supply Source: Greentech Media  California annual usage is 240,000 kWhr (Cal ISO).  Equals 150 GW of PV assuming mean insolation of 1600 kWhr/kW. Applied Materials External Use
  5. 5. Domestic rooftops – a great early market 2.7 kW PV array (14 SunPower panels, ~18%), $6/watt after rebates, -$50 electric bill last year) Planned tower for 2,700 kW wind turbine Applied Materials External Use
  6. 6. Commercial Rooftop (grid-connected) Google – 1.5 MW Applied Matrials – 2 MW Sizes from tens of kW to >2 MW 6 Applied Materials External Use
  7. 7. Solar Farms Biggest solar farm is 65MW; farms over 100MW are in the near future! 7 Applied Materials External Use
  8. 8. Scaling changes market dynamics Lower cost enabled FPDs to replace CRTs 8 Applied Materials External Use
  9. 9. Module manufacturing cost scaling 100 Historical 1980 Projected $21.83/W Module Cost ($/W)* 1990 $6.07/W 10 2005 $2.70/W 18% learning curve 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1E5 Cumulative Volume (MW) Production line size 0.5 5 50 100 (Megawatts per Year): (1980) (2000) (2005) (2010) Lines Per Factory 2 3 4 10 * 2002 Dollars Source: Navigant Consulting 9 Applied Materials External Use
  10. 10. The two mainstream types of PV Wafer-based Crystal Silicon Thin Film Lower efficiency for cost constrained markets Higher efficiency for area constrained markets (Sufficient area available to meet generation (Greater revenue compensates for needs gives advantage to lower installed $/watt) higher installed $/watt) 10 Applied Materials External Use
  11. 11. 2007 Module Efficiency – c-Si and Thin Film Photon International Survey Advanced silicon 19.3 20 CZ and MC silicon 18 16.7 16 15.1 14.4 14.4 14.4 Thin film 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.3 14 13.1 12.8 Efficiency (%) 12 11.1 11.0 10 8.5 7.6 8 6.6 6 4 2 0 r TF o o o o S a o ar JA BC G ti Si BP ti ti ti i G we ti sh on on on ny ul ul ul er on ul ul CI CS ol a- EF p M M M ub LG M M o oc M Sa M tS M M ar np er p h he Ky h tt its tt h he p Sh h rs th BP ar ec ec ho Su ho ec ar ec M sc Fi O sc Sh ot Sc nt Sh Sc nt ot ut ut M Su Su M De De  Thin Film suppliers need higher module efficiency with low manufacturing costs  Silicon suppliers need incremental efficiency and cost gains to stay ahead of TF 11 Applied Materials External Use
  12. 12. Summary  PV is one of many players in the energy picture. Flexible system size, low maintenance enable it to effectively serve many markets  Today, supply is small, but growing rapidly  Scaling and competition between PV technologies is driving down cost per watt.  As costs come down, PV will penetrate larger markets Applied Materials External Use
  13. 13. 13 Applied Materials External Use
  • fyietc

    Jan. 19, 2010

Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.

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