McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

McKinsey & Company 1
Five emerging consumer themes in August 2021
1 2
Source: Based on 3rd-party data between Feb 2019 and Aug 2021, as well as longitudinal surveys conducted between Mar 2020 and Aug 2021 in the United States
1. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Jun 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Jun 2020 growth had COVID-19 not occurred.
5
4
3
Strong spending –
by some
at 6% year-over-year
growth1 vs pre-COVID-
19 growth trajectory;
however, this differs by
income and age, with
higher-income and
younger consumers
spending more
Omnichannel is
ascendant
E-commerce continues
high growth of ~30%
year over year, while
brick-and-mortar sales
show 5% year-over-
year growth in August
as a result 60–70% of
consumers shopping
omnichannel
Loyalty shake-up
continues
30–40% of consumers,
most notably millennials
and Gen Z, continue to
switch brands or
retailers
A tentative return
to out-of-home
While almost 50% of
consumers are
engaging in “normal”
out-of-home activities,
home improvements
continue
Disparate recovery
across categories
Several categories
experienced continued
acceleration, while
travel and out-of-home
entertainment ceded
recovery to the Delta
variant

15 16 17 17 20 18 16 14 13 14 16
45 48 50 48 46 46
45 44 46 45 41
40 36 33 35 34 36 39 42 41 41 43
Mar 2020 Oct 2020
Apr 2020 May 2020June 2020July 2020 Sept 2020 Nov 2020 Feb 2021
Aug 2020 Aug 2021
1. Overall optimism has slowly increased in 2021, although
pessimism has also increased slightly
Spending remains strong | Current as of August 2021
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of US respondents
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd
immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for March through April 2020. Figures may not sum
to 100% because of rounding.
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Mixed: The economy
will be affected for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-
19 will have lasting
impact on the economy
and show regression / fall
into lengthy recession
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 8/19–8/23/2020, n = 2,026;
7/30–8/2/2020, n = 2,024; 7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 6/1–6/7/2020, n = 1,966; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; 5/11–5/17/2020, n = 2,002; 5/4–5/10/2020, n = 1,993; 4/27–5/3/2020, n = 2,105; 4/20–4/26/2020, n = 1,052;
4/13–4/19/2020, n = 1,052; 4/6–4/12/2020, n = 1,063; 3/30–4/5/2020, n = 1,484; 3/23–3/29/2020, n = 1,119; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,073; 3/16–3/17/2020, n = 1,042; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

1. Higher-income consumers are significantly more optimistic
compared with lower-income groups
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after
COVID-19 by income level,1 % of respondents
30 30
35
36
32
41
38 39
45
48
54
57
25
0
30
5
35
10
20
15
40
45
50
55
60
Sept 2020 Aug 2021
July 2020 Feb 2021
Medium ($50,000–100,000)
Low (<$50,000) High (>$100,000)
24
21
18
20
18 17
15
12
10 10
20
10
0
35
30
5
55
15
25
40
45
50
60
Aug 2021
14
Feb 2021
July 2020
16
Sept 2020
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Optimism by income Pessimism by income
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 7/7–
7/12/2020, n = 1,923; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

1. Younger and vaccinated consumers also drive optimism
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
36
46
17
40
14
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
47
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
2. Baby boomers include Traditionalists
Millennials
30
59
48
11
38
20
14
Gen Z
35
47
18
Gen X
35
45
Baby boomers2
Optimistic Mixed Pessimistic
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004, sampled and weighted to match the US general population
18+ years
By generation By vaccination status

1. While under 30 percent say their routines are back to normal,
most expect that normalcy will return to routines only in 2022
Expectations on routines returning to normal,1 % of respondents
23 21
30 29
21 28
15
12
56
51 55 59
Baby boomers3
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
21
36
20
16
59
48
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
27
18
55
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers include Traditional or Silent Generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned
By generation By vaccination status2
Younger generations
are more optimistic
about the return, while
~40% of older
consumers expect
longer lead time
~40% of unvaccinated
consumers are
engaging in normal
routine, reflecting the
highest confidence
Key findings

1. An increasing portion of consumers believe that
their income, spending and savings are stable
Reduced slightly/a lot Increased slightly/a lot
About the same
9
57
29
34
Past 2 weeks
60
Past 2 weeks
11 11
65
24
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
20
45
14
Past 2 weeks
41
43
37
17
49
34
Past 2 weeks
37
42
21
Past 2 weeks
34
22
44
Past 2 weeks
23
50
27
Past 2 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024,
sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending, and amount of income put away as savings
over the past 2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Aug 25–31
Feb 18–22
Nov 9–13 Feb 18–22 Aug 25–31 Nov 9–13 Aug 25–31 Nov 9–13
Feb 18–22
Household income1
% of respondents
Household spending1
% of respondents
Household savings1
% of respondents

1. While ~40 percent of consumers say their finances are back
to normal, another ~40 percent say it will take until 2022
31
27
29
42
Millennials
28
44
30
Gen Z
45
17
38
Gen X
7
62
Baby boomers3
38
Vaccinated
16
38
20
42
46
Unvaccinated
In or after 2022 Not affected/already returned
In 2021
Overall
42
19
39
1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
By generation By vaccination status2
~60% of baby
boomers say
their finances
were either not
effected or are
back to normal,
vs ~30% for
Gen Z and
millennials
Expectations on personal/household finances
returning to normal,1 % of respondents

1. While consumers still want to splurge, intent to spend moderated
among older, middle-income consumers since early 2021
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of
products or services you have spent less on over the last year and half which you feel you will spend more on now?
2. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
58
42
Aug 2021
Do not plan
on splurging
51
49
Feb 2021
Plan on splurging
Millennials
Gen X
Baby boomers3
56
3
56
−7
Gen Z 64
−2
45
−5
57
−9
78
−2
17
−10
22
−11
33
−14
31
−1
37
−14
46
−19
Generation
2
Respondents who plan/do not plan to splurge/treat
themselves in 2021,1 % of respondents
Low
(<$50,000/year)
Middle
($50,000–
$100,000/year)
High
(>$100,000/year)
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50% p.p. change from Feb 21
XX
Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, %

1. Younger consumers have a strong desire to splurge on apparel
and cosmetics, perhaps given more out-of-home activity
Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1
% of all respondents with intent to splurge
1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2 Baby boomers include Traditional or Silent Generation.
41
39
35
33
30
26
26
25
24
23
22
18
15
Personal services
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Travel, lodging, vacation
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Out-of-home entertainment
Pets
Electronics
Makeup, skin care products
Items for your home
Fitness, sports, outdoors
Household essentials
Sports apparel and equipment
Outdoor living
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
37 40 39 52
50 45 33 24
25 37 33 45
38 40 28 18
32 35 27 19
26 30 25 19
45 30 21 8
26 25 22 27
21 34 19 6
Generational cut
22 28 23 12
21 29 20 10
21 22 17 10
9 19 18 6
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25 – 8/31/2021, n=2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
−5
−4
−9
−4
−2
−4
N/A
−3
−3
−5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Leisure categories
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points

1. Despite intent to splurge moderating since February, consumer
spending has maintained strong growth from March to August
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data from 2/2019–7/2021; Earnest research “Impact of Stimulus Payments on Consumer Spending,” February 2021
1. Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers; does not include spending that is difficult to track (e.g., at small businesses) and/or for channels where non-credit card forms of payment (cash, check,
banks transfers, etc.) are common (healthcare, insurance, utilities, housing, etc). Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (2/2020–8/2021) compared with monthly sales in prior period (2/2019–8/2020).
2. Year-over-year spend in Mar–Aug 2020 decreased by 8% compared with same period in previous year, whereas Sept–Feb remained flat compared with same period in previous year.
3. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Feb–Aug 2019.
4. Year-over-year change in spend for stimulus recipients versus those who did not receive stimulus payments.
Stimulus payments
and holiday-influenced
recovery in the 6
months prior
Those who received stimulus
money in April/May and
January showed a 15–20%
uplift in spend.4 Early holiday
shopping in October and Nov
helped support positive
growth in those months
Spend is normalizing,
with solid growth for
March–August vs. re-
forecasted spend had
COVID-19 not occured3
Relative to March–August
2020 actual spend (start of
pandemic in the US), spend
is up 20%
10
−6
−18
−9
−6 −5
−3
1 2 1
−2
3
−4
4 5%5 5 7 6 6
Mar Mar
Feb Apr Aug
May Feb
Sept
June June
July Oct July
Nov Dec Jan Apr May Aug
20
40
27
25
22
20
1st round of
stimulus
2nd
round of
stimulus
Holiday pull-
forward spend
3rd round
of
stimulus
vs re-
forecasted
Aug 2020
spend had
COVID-19 not
occurred3
vs Aug 2020
actual spend
Comparison to pre-COVID-19 months
Comparison to COVID-affected
months
Mar–Aug
6 month YoY: –8%2
Sept–Feb
6 month YoY: 0%2
Year-over-year credit-card spend,1 %

1. Wealthier consumers have driven robust rise in spending, while
lower-income consumers pulled back spending starting in May 2021
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; spend samples cardholders and underrepresents highest- and lowest-income bands
Year-over-year credit card spend by population subsegment,1 %
−20
−30
−10
30
0
10
20
Apr
Feb
May
Dec
June
Mar
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
June
July
Aug
Low ($0–35,000) Medium ($35,000–80,000) High (≥$80,000)
Stimulus payment
4
Lower-
income
consumers
2
Medium-
income
consumers
4
Cumulative year-
over-year change3
Higher-
income
consumers
Year-over-year change,
Aug 2021 vs Aug 2020
Change in spend,1 by income level, %
2020 2021
1. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Feb–Aug 2019.
2. Cumulative year-over-year change compares the sum of the data for Sept 2020–Aug 2021 with Sept 2019–Aug 2020, with re-forecasted numbers for Mar–Aug 2020.
−9
11
2
> 5% < −5%

1. Millennial consumers have driven a robust rise in spending
Signs of spend recovery | Current as of August 2021
Source: Affinity credit card spend data from 2/2019–8/2021; spend samples cardholders and underrepresents highest- and lowest-income bands
30
0
−10
−30
10
−20
20
Oct
Mar
Nov
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dec
Jan
Feb
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
18–37 (millennials) 38–51 (Gen X) 52+ (baby boomers)
1. Re-forecasted Mar-Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–Aug 2019.
2. Age brackets: baby boomers (52+), Gen X (38–51), millennials (18–37). Data for lower-income consumers (<$35,000) underrepresented across all generational
groups.
3. Cumulative year-over-year change compares the sum of the data for Sept 2020–Aug 2021 with Sept 2019–Aug 2020, with re-forecasted numbers for Mar–Aug 2020.
Year-over-year credit-card spend by population subsegment,1 %
Stimulus payment
-2
Baby
boomers
11
Gen X 6
Cumulative year-
over-year change3
Millennials
Year-over-year change,
Aug 2021 vs Aug 2020
Change in spend,1 by age group,2 %
2020 2021
1
15
9
> 5% < −5%

Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Facteus debit-card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend
data for 2/2019–8/2021
1. Includes the following retailer categories: Amazon, apparel, software and electronics, cosmetic stores, pet supplies, home stores, mass stores, club stores,
restaurants, grocery stores, drugstores, discount stores.
2. Last twelve months.
2. Online penetration shifted upward with COVID-19’s onset and
has remained ~30 percent above pre-COVID-19 levels
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of August 2021
~30%
Increase in
online
penetration
since Mar 2020,
based on credit-
card and debit-
card spend
Retail-oriented online credit-card and debit-card spend as % of total1
19
20
27 27
25
26
25 25 25
29
30
27
26 26
25
24
26
24
25
Oct
Sept
June
LTM2 July
Mar
2020
Apr May Aug
2021
Aug Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
~+30%

2. Brick and mortar grew steadily at 5 percent in spring, summer
2021; e-commerce continued growth above 30 percent
Retail channel, year-over-year growth in spend,1 2019–21, %
1. Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers. While card spending represents only a part of overall consumer spending (such as housing, utilities, and other major categories excluded from credit-card
spending), the changes in card data closely track changes in official consumption figures reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is because the share of unaffected categories in card spending is comparable with the share of
categories not affected negatively by COVID-19 in overall consumption (which includes housing). Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (Feb 2020–Aug 2021) compared with monthly sales in prior period (Feb 2019–
Aug 2020).
2. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Aug 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Aug 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–
Aug 2019.
3. Includes the following retail channels: Amazon brick and mortar; apparel, software and electronics, cosmetics, pet supplies; home stores; mass stores; club stores, restaurants, grocery stores, drugstores, discount stores, auto and
cable/telecom (not shown separately), and experiences, including out-of-home entertainment and travel.
4. Includes the following retailer categories: Amazon; apparel, software and electronics, cosmetics. pet supplies. home stores. mass stores. club stores. restaurants. grocery stores. drugstores. and discount stores
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data from 2/2019 – 8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data, 2/2019–8/2021
Year-over-year sales growth, %
−10 0 10 20
−20
−30 30
Total3
Brick-
and-
mortar
sales3
E-
commerce
sales4
Year-over-
year
change,
last 12 mos vs
last 13–24 mos
E-com-
merce
accele-
ration
Apr–May
Early
summer
June–July
Holiday
Nov–Dec
Early 2021
Jan–Feb
Fall
Aug–Oct May2
Early
shelter in
place
Mar
Pre-
COVID-19
Feb 2020
Start of
recovery2
Mar–Apr
June-
July2
−13 −5 0 −1
0 3
−6
10 5 5 7 7
−13 −3 −2 2
3 3
1
7 5 6 5 5
62 52 41 44
49 41
27
24 48 34 32 32
Aug2

3. Digital penetration has remained strong across all channels
E-commerce as a % of total retail sales1,2
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for 2/2019–8/2021
1. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Aug 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Aug 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by
growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb– Aug 2019.
2. Excludes sales in automotive, beauty, grocery, home improvement, home and furniture, pet supplies, apparel and accessories, electronics, sports and
outdoors, as these categories are embedded into subsequent rows.
3. Includes Amazon sales.
2021
(May-June)
25
12
1
67
20
8
34
62
10
37
76
45
11
(July)
24
11
1
66
20
7
33
61
9
36
74
43
10
Current
(Aug)
25
12
1
69
22
8
35
63
9
36
73
44
10
Total e-commerce penetration by retailer
category
Mass
Discount stores
Cosmetics3
Drugstores & pharmacies3
Grocery stores3
Home3
Pet supplies3
Restaurants
Retail apparel3
Software & electronics3
Sporting apparel3
Wholesale clubs
Year-over-year growth
20 30 40 50+
10
0
19
6
1
53
16
5
30
55
4
33
68
38
8
Pre-
COVID-19
(Feb)
20
8
0
68
19
6
32
60
7
43
78
49
8
Early
Shelter in
Place
(Mar)
27
12
0
90
21
7
36
67
10
67
89
66
11
E-
commerce
acceleration
(Apr−May)
25
11
0
72
20
7
34
61
9
43
82
50
10
Early
summer
(June−July)
25
11
1
67
20
7
35
60
9
41
79
47
10
Fall
(Aug-Oct)
25
11
1
70
20
7
36
61
8
44
80
50
10
Holiday
(Nov-Dec)
27
13
1
70
21
8
38
63
11
45
79
50
11
Early 2021
(Jan-Feb)
26
12
1
70
20
9
35
63
10
39
77
46
11
Start of
recovery
(Mar-Apr)
Essentials
Discretionary

2. The trajectory of e-commerce penetration has differed by
category and retailer
Online sales as % of overall sales for credit-card and debit-card spend,1 by level of pre-COVID-19 penetration
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Facteus debit-card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021;
Stackline Amazon spend data, 2/2019–8/2021
46
83
53
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Apr 2020
spike
Aug 2021
+15%
13
19 20
Apr 2020
spike
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Aug 2021
+54%
5
9 10
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Apr 2020
spike
Aug 2021
+100%
High penetration2
(>20%)
Moderate penetration3
(7–20%)
Low penetration4
(<7%)
Categories with lower pre-COVID-19 online penetration saw higher e-commerce growth in March and may be
more likely to sustain online penetration rates seen during the pandemic
Categories with already high online penetration saw a
dramatic spike during April’s lockdowns
1. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–Aug 2019.
2. High-online-penetration retail categories include those with >20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: apparel, software and electronics, cosmetics, pet supplies.
3. Medium-online-penetration retail categories include those with 7–20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: home stores, mass stores, club stores.
4. Low-online-penetration retail categories include those with <7% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: restaurants, grocery stores, drugstores, discount stores.
5. Online penetration from Mar 2019 to Feb 2020.

0
50
−10
10
20
30
40
60
70
80
90
100
110
Timeline
YoY
growth,
%
2. Since April of this year, Amazon’s growth has
decelerated but is still higher versus pre-COVID-19 period
Year-over-year (YoY) growth for Amazon sales, 2019–21, %
Source: Stackline Amazon spend data, 1/2019–8/2021
Pre-
COVID-19
(Jan–Feb)
Early shelter
in place
(Mar)
E-
commerce
acceleration
(Apr–May)
Early summer
(June–July)
Holiday
(Nov–Dec)
+16 +14 +43 +46 +36
2020 2021
Fall (Aug–Oct)
+39
2021 (Jan–Feb)
+31
Thanksgiving
July 4th
Christmas
Labor Day
Stimulus
New Year’s Day
Stimulus
2021
(Apr–May)
+28
2021
(June–July)
+19
2021
(Mar)
+61
XX YoY growth in given period, %
Prime day
Prime Day
lapping
Negative growth rate due to
delayed Prime Day (Originally
in week 29 in 2019) No data for 2021 1st week
Negative growth due to accelerated July 4
(week 27 in 2021 vs week 28 in 2020)
2021
(Aug)
+10

1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
2. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. For which of these was a post on social media something that inspired or influenced the particular brand?
34
32
30
25
25
24
21
21
21
20
18
17
17
16
15
16
14
14
60
61
64
63
62
69
64
65
67
59
64
69
65
67
69
60
71
64
6
7
6
12
13
7
15
14
12
21
18
14
18
17
16
24
15
22
Skin care and makeup
Home improvement, gardening supplies
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine
Groceries
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Pet food and supplies
Fitness and wellness services
Kitchen and dining
Footwear
Jewelry
Home decoration and furniture
Apparel
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Books, magazines, newspapers
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Consumer electronics
Research and purchase only in store Omnichannel Research and purchase only online
2. Six or seven in ten consumers shop in an omnichannel way, with
40 percent citing social media as an influence in certain categories
Product searches by channel over the last 3 months,1 % of respondents
Influenced by social
media,2 % of respondents
>35%
19
17
22
19
39
37
27
31
40
36
35
40
34
20
25
30
36
32

54
65
80
30
35
45
48 84
55
46 88
50
40
52
60
56 58 76
64 66
70
72
68
5
70 74 78 82
50
86
0
10
15
20
25
Downloaded/used a new store or restaurant app
Downloaded/used deal-finding plug-ins and price comparison apps/sites
Curbside pickup from a restaurant
Grocery delivery
Restaurant food delivery
Purchased pre-owned products online
Self-checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store
Purchased directly from social media
Meal kit delivery
Drive-thru line for a fast-food restaurant
Curbside pickup for a store
Buy online, pickup in store
Paid more for delivery within 2 hr/1 hr
Paid more for same-day delivery
1. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less) on Q: Which best
describes when you have done or used each of these items?
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I
am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates percent who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. Alternatives to in-store shopping accelerated during COVID-19;
50 to 70 percent of consumers intend to continue their use
Intent to use after COVID-192
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
User
growth
since
COVID-19
1

1. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less) on Q: Which best
describes when you have done or used each of these items?
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I
am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. Digital and remote acquisition of services (wellness, education,
communications) also increased with strong intent to continue
41
100
73
57 78 86
40
140
81
76
50
64
58
42
0 53
43 44 62
45 46 47 48 49 84
82
50 51 52 88
54 55 74
56 59
0
60 61 68
63 65 66 70
67 87
69 71 72 75 79
77 80 83 85
Wellness app
TikTok
Remote learning
for kids
Online fitness
Playing online games
Watching e-sports
Personal care, grooming at home
Video conferencing: Professional use
Virtual hangouts and video chats
Digital exercise machine
Telemedicine: Mental health
Remote learning
for myself
Telemedicine: Physical health
Intent to use after COVID-192
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
User
growth
since
COVID-19
1

3. Channel and category performance has evolved into five distinct
performance types over the course of the pandemic
Disparate category recovery | Current as of August 2021
Early pandemic
May–July 2020
Later 2020
Aug–Dec
YTD 2021
Jan–Aug
Description
A Robust year-over-year growth throughout, due to larger
consumer shifts (e.g., homebody economy)
Sustained
elevation
B Fast rise in early days of COVID-19, with growth
subsiding over time
Normalizing
growth
C Steady demand, not affected by COVID-19
Unaffected
D Significant declines at the outset of COVID-19, with
quicker recovery
Approaching
recovery
E Larger decline (−50% or more year over year), with
slower path to recovery
/
Larger decline
Categories/channels
 Software and electronics
 Home
 Pet supplies
 Sporting apparel
 Cosmetics
 Grocery stores
 Discount stores
 Mass stores
 Wholesale clubs
 Drugstores and
pharmacies
 Telecom/cable
 Retail apparel
 Fuel and other auto
 Restaurants
 Out-of-home entertainment
 Travel

3. Spending growth in most categories other than out-of-home
entertainment and travel is now at or past pre-COVID levels
Year-over-year (YoY) sales growth,1 % −15 0 15 30+
YoY growth, %
−30
< −45
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for 2/2019–8/2021
Sustained
elevation
Normalizing
growth
Approaching
recovery
Larger
decline
Unaffected
Software and electronics3
Home3
Pet supplies3
Sporting apparel3
Restaurants
Auto
Retail apparel3
Out-of-home entertainment
Travel
Total
Discount stores
Wholesale clubs
Mass (Target, Walmart)
Drugstores, pharmacies3
Cosmetics3
Grocery stores3
Telecom/cable
1 Excludes sales in automotive, beauty, grocery, home improvement, home and furniture, pet supplies, apparel and accessories, electronics, sports and outdoors, as these categories are embedded into subsequent rows.
2 YoY growth for Mar–Aug 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Aug 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb– Aug 2019.
3 Includes Amazon sales.
13
15
15
6
9
10
5
30
5
10
4
15
10
7
14
9
7
Pre-
COVID-19
Feb 2020
9
2
24
−14
−24
−21
−43
−52
−46
−6
18
20
15
22
−9
36
−4
Early
shelter in
place, Mar
28
35
21
27
−1
−16
−9
−78
−49
0
13
13
8
10
8
10
1
Fall
Aug–Oct
29
24
18
−6
−26
−41
−53
−79
−72
−13
9
0
9
2
1
15
2
E-
commerce
acceleration
Apr–May
23
28
19
25
−10
−22
−15
−79
56
−5
9
9
3
9
9
9
0
Early
summer
June–July
26
34
24
36
3
−3
3
−62
−28
4
31
13
7
4
30
5
2
Mar–Apr
adjusted2
20
28
6
22
11
16
7
8
−6
−18
−12
5
−78
9
−48
0
2
Holiday
Nov–Dec
25
21
22
36
5
−1
7
−28
−12
6
10
12
7
7
25
6
−1
May–June
adjusted2
7
13
24
33
8
3
8
−23
−6
6
15
14
6
8
30
7
1
July
adjusted2
22
30
22
21
−2
−8
−5
−75
−48
−1
13
12
10
1
14
9
2
2021
Jan–Feb
17
16
27
28
6
4
4
−28
−11
6
15
16
5
18
23
8
0
Aug
adjusted2

3. Spending growth year over year in most categories has been
driven primarily by higher-income consumers
Retail category, year-over-year growth in spend, Aug 2021 vs Aug 2020,1 %
−5 0 15 30+
−15
< −30
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for 1/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for 1/2019–8/2021. Spend samples cardholders and underrepresents
highest- and lowest-income bands
1. Re-forecasted Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing July 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between July–Aug 2019.
Total
Software and electronics stores2
Home2
Discount stores
Wholesale clubs
Grocery stores2
Sporting apparel2
Restaurants
Auto parts and accessories and fuel
Retail apparel2
Cosmetics2
Out-of-home entertainment (eg, theaters, amusement parks)
Pet supplies2
Drugstores and pharmacies2
Telecom/cable service providers
Travel (airlines, car rentals, hotels, cruises)
Mass (Target and Walmart)
11
−9
0
0
−4
−1
−13
−11
−12
−10
24
−40
9
−1
−15
−18
−10
21
2
15
12
12
10
3
1
−2
−3
25
−34
23
14
−4
−10
0
30
11
23
19
23
18
15
8
6
−5
29
−26
33
21
7
−7
10
Low
(<$35,000)
Medium
($35,000–80,000)
High
(>$80,000)
Change in spend, by annual income level

3. Spending growth year over year in most categories has been
driven primarily by millennials
Retail category, year-over-year growth in spend, Aug 2021 vs Aug 2020,1 % −5 0 15 30+
−15
< −30
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for 1/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for 1/2019–8/2021; spend samples cardholders and underrepresents
highest- and lowest-income bands
1. Re-forecasted Aug 2020 spend calculated by growing Jul 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Jul–Aug 2019.
Total
Software and electronics2
Home2
Discount stores
Wholesale clubs
Grocery stores2
Sporting apparel2
Restaurants
Auto parts and accessories and fuel
Retail apparel2
Cosmetics2
Out-of-home entertainment (eg, theaters, amusement parks)
Pet supplies2
Drugstores and pharmacies2
Telecom/cable service providers
Travel (airlines, car rentals, hotels, cruises)
Mass (Target, Walmart)
42
15
26
27
15
30
16
10
6
16
17
−24
37
31
1
8
15
18–37 (millennials)
28
9
25
21
10
20
7
−8
4
4
23
−31
29
26
0
1
5
38–51 (Gen X)
16
1
12
9
6
9
6
−3
−2
−7
19
−39
20
11
1
−19
−2
52+ (baby boomers)
Change in spend, by generation

3. Sustained elevation: Some categories see continued increased
demand, with deceleration among lower-income consumers
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data for 2/2019–8/2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for 2/2019–8/2021
Year-over-year credit-card spend by income segment,1 %
1. Mar–Jul figure is based on re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend to estimate Mar−Aug 2020 spend without COVID-19. Calculated by growing Feb−Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth
rate observed for Mar−Aug 2019. Note that not all panelists have income identified, so the stratified income view does not always match the total view.
Home
80
40
0
−40
−20
20
60
Aug
July
Feb
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jan
May
June
Aug
June
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
May
Mar
Apr
July
Sporting apparel
60
−40
−20
0
80
20
40
Feb
Jan
Feb
Aug
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
July
Apr
May
June
Software and electronics
20
−40
40
−20
60
0
80
Feb
Oct
May
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Apr
July
Aug
Sept
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
June
July
Aug
40
20
−40
0
−20
80
60
Dec
Sept
Mar
Feb
Apr
May
Oct
June
July
Aug
June
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Aug
Pet supplies
$0–35,000 $35,001–80,000 $80,001+

3. Normalizing growth: As initial surge has subsided, spend among
higher-income consumers is starting to outpace others
10
−20
20
−10
0
40
30
Mar
June
Feb
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
30
−20
20
−10
40
0
10
Feb
Mar
Feb
Apr
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Discount and dollar stores
1. Mar–July figure is based on re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend to estimate Mar–Aug 2020 spend without COVID-19. Calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month
growth rate observed for Mar–Aug 2019. Note that not all panelists have income identified, so the stratified income view does not always match the total view.
2. Mass stores include Target and Walmart.
10
10
−20
0
30
20
40
July
Apr
Oct
Jan
Feb
Nov
Mar
Apr
May
May
June
Aug
Sept
July
Dec
Feb
Mar
June
Aug
Wholesale clubs
Mass stores2
−20
−10
30
0
10
40
20
Dec
Feb
Nov
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
June
Oct
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Aug
Grocery
−10
−20
0
10
20
30
40
Feb
Aug
Aug
Mar
Apr
Dec
May
June
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Drugstores and pharmacies
$80,001+
$0–35,000 $35,001–80,000

3. Approaching recovery: After initial steep declines, some categories
have seen recovery as consumers increase in-person spend
1. Mar–Jul figure is based on re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend to estimate Mar–Aug 2020 spend without COVID-19. Calculated by growing Feb–Aug 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Feb–Aug 2019. Note
that not all panelists have income identified, so the stratified income view does not always match the total view
−60
0
−100
−20
−80
−40
20 Sept
Mar
Mar
Feb
Nov
Feb
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Oct
Dec
Jan
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
0
−50
200
50
100
150
Mar
Mar
Feb
Apr
Sept
May
June
July
Aug
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Apr
June
May
July
Online purchase
Quick-service restaurants
On-site
0
−100
−80
−60
−40
−20
20
May
Feb
Feb
Aug
Mar
Apr
May
July
June
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
Apr
June
July
50
150
−50
0
100
200
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Feb
Apr
June
July
Aug
Sept
July
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Aug
Online purchase
$0–35,000 $35,001–80,000 $80,001+
Retail apparel
In-store

−70
−90
30
−80
−40
20
−50
−60
−30
−20
−10
0
10
40
Feb
Apr
Apr
May
Jan
Aug
Feb
Mar
May
June
Aug
Oct
Sept
Nov
Dec
Mar
June
July
July
3. Larger declines: while travel and out-of-home categories started
to recover, levels declined again with the onset of the Delta variant
−30
−90
30
−70
−80
−60
−40
40
−20
−10
0
10
−50
20
Aug
Jan
Apr
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Sept
July
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Aug
Mar
Apr
June
May
$0–35,000 $35,001–80,000 >$80,000
1. Mar–June figure is based on re-forecasted Mar–Aug 2020 spend to estimate Mar–Aug 2020 spend without COVID-19. Calculated by growing Feb–May 2020 spend by the
same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–May 2019. Note that not all panelists have income identified, so the stratified income view does not always match the total view.
Travel Out-of-home entertainment

4. Even with the Delta variant present, in August almost half of US
consumers say they are engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities
Out-of-home/homebody economy | Current as of August 2021
Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
48
33
36
36
27
20
June 2020
Nov 2020
Feb 2021
Aug 2021
Sept 2020
May 2020
Overall
44
Vaccinated
50
Unvaccinated
Gen Z
52
45
Millennials Baby boomers3
Gen X
48 45
48
Low
(<$50,000)
Medium
($50,000–100,000)
High
(>$100,000)
49 45
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are people 45–54 years old, baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024;
9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By income
~52%
of baby boomers are
doing out-of-home
activities
~49%
of lower income
households are doing
out-of-home activities
~50%
of people that are
unvaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities

4. Consumers increased all out-of-home activity since February;
social activities, indoor dining, and fitness increased most
Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match
the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks?
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment 54
26
21
23
33
33
48
55
48
Attend an outdoor event
Go out for family entertainment
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go to a hair or nail salon
Get together with family
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with friends
61
89
75
38
32
38
34
19
27
22
24
Work outside my home
Use public transportation
Shop for groceries/necessities
Shop for nonnecessities
Go to a shopping mall
Travel more than 2 hr by car
Travel by airplane
Use a ride-sharing service
Travel by train
Stay in a hotel
Rent a short-term home
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
11
16
8
13
12
6
8
5
9
10
9
14
12
13
19
18
9
18
20
18
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
50%+
<50%
Change >10 pp

1. Q: With the rise of the Delta variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Surveys, conducted in the US on 8/25–8/31/2021; n = 2,004, sampled and weighted to match the US
general population 18+ years
22
5
39
25
30
6
16
Low
(<$50,000)
36
37
Medium
($50,000–
100,000)
39
6
39
High
(>$100,000)
4. Roughly 70 percent of consumers have changed the way they
engage in out-of-home activities because of the Delta variant
Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of Delta variant,1 % of respondents
5
41
36
27
37
18
Vaccinated
30
6
Unvaccinated
Engage less 39
Engage same as
before Delta
34
Overall
21
6
Engage with
adjusted behavior
Engage more
By income By vaccination status
Higher-income
consumers are more
cautious when
going out
A third of
unvaccinated
consumers have not
reduced or changed
their out-of-home
behavior despite the
Delta variant
Key findings

4. Depending on the category, about 60 to 75 percent of consumers
have modified their behavior when out of home
Out-of-home activities engagement,1 % of respondents
1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs. pre-COVID-19”;
“Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all.
Work
Shopping
Transport/
Travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment 75
75
75
71
70
72
71
71
71
25
25
25
29
30
28
29
29
28
Attend an indoor cultural event
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Go out for family entertainment
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an outdoor event
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with family
Get together with friends
57
66
68
77
69
73
74
77
74
71
74
43
34
32
23
31
27
26
23
26
29
26
Go to a shopping mall
Work outside my home
Use a ride-sharing service
Stay in a hotel
Shop for groceries/necessities
Travel more than 2 hr by car
Shop for nonnecessities
Use public transportation
Travel by airplane
Travel by train
Rent a short-term home
Doing less or in a modified way Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19

4. Even though consumers have increased out-of-home activity,
they are still investing in their home environment due to COVID-19
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID,1 % of respondents
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2. Total percentage of people who choose option(s) in the category.
3. Not asked in Feb 2021 survey.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Change >3 pp
Worked more from home
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Decided to change jobs
Moved into a bigger home
Started homeschooling children3
Set up a gym at home
Renovated/remodeled my home
Moved into a smaller home
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
Bought a property
Sold a property
28
11
8
15
15
14
15
6
5
6
4
Work/study
change
Aug 2021
Pet adoption
House move
Home
renovation
Investments/
divestments
Total2
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
2
2
1
2
5
−1
0
1
4
4
N/A
15
37
10
33
8

4. Both C-suite executives and employees believe that remote work
will increase post-pandemic
Out-of-home/homebody economy | Current as of May 2021
Source: McKinsey CxO Survey on Return to Workplace, May 2021; McKinsey Reimagine Work: Employee Survey, January 2021
92
52
8
36
12
Pre-pandemic Post-pandemic
62
37
30
52
8 11
Pre-pandemic Post-pandemic
≤2 days
≥4 days
3 days
Average share of workdays in office reported before
and expected after COVID-19 pandemic
% of C-suite respondents1
1. Based on responses from 504 C-suite executives.
2. Based on responses from 5,043 employees globally.
Working model before COVID-19 pandemic and desired
working model after COVID-19 pandemic
% of employee respondents2
Hybrid
Fully remote
Fully on site

75
39
39
34
30
29
Private label/store brand
Different brand
Any new shopping behavior
New shopping method3
Different retailer/store/website
New digital shopping method3
5. Consumer behavior change has been more extensive among
younger and higher-income consumers
Loyalty shake-up | Current as of August 2021
Behaviors since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents
1. Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 25% consumers selected “none of these.”
2. Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before
coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did
before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
% of
respondents
Change from Feb
2021, percentage
points
84 5
82 4
84 3
83 2
High
(>$100,000/year)
Gen Z Millennials
85
90 88
46
81 5 48 49
43
44 44
42
46 46
34
26 35
44
38 46
Income cut
Generational cut
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3
Difference from all consumers
percentage points
> +3
Intent to continue behavior2

5. Value was a primary reason for brand switch among all; access
came next for older consumers and purpose for younger consumers
Loyalty shake-up | Current as of August 2021
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top 3
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand and new
private label or store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group.
2. Baby boomers include Traditionalists or Silent Generation.
x Net % of respondents per category
Supporting local businesses
Better prices/promotions
9
Better quality
Products are in-stock
10
Better shipping/delivery cost
32
Larger package sizes
Is more sustainable, better for the environment
Shares my values
Wanted to treat myself
The company treats its employees well
Is natural or organic
7
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Better value
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Is available where I’m shopping (ie, in store or online)
Is cleaner or safer
30
9
10
30
11
6
6
17
15
13
14
20
11
Novelty
Personal choice
Purpose-driven
Quality/organic
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Availability 30
Value 60
26
25
26
20
9
22
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z/
millennials Gen X
22 43
27
26 38
35
12 3
10
11 7
10
20 42
29
9 12
13
14 4
4
10 5
4
10 1
6
24 7
17
20 4
7
14 13
18
11 14
14
19 9
11
12 9
9
14 25
24
12 6
9
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
All consumers
Difference from all consumers,
percentage points

McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis