Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Upcoming SlideShare
Boston Consulting Group Digital Ventures Presents Esprit de corps, The Importance of Making Friends at Work
Next

Share

Michael Priddis, Managing Director, BCG Digital Ventures

DAZE Melbourne 2015: You and .AI. Man, Machine, & the Future of Work: How Technology will Transform your economy, your workplace, and your child's role in it.

Related Books

Free with a 30 day trial from Scribd

See all

Related Audiobooks

Free with a 30 day trial from Scribd

See all

Michael Priddis, Managing Director, BCG Digital Ventures

  1. 1. How technology will transform your economy, your workplace, and your child’s role in it Michael Priddis Partner and Managing Director BCG Digital Ventures michael.priddis@bcgdv.com
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION Introduce Today’s central insight Outcome The research questions we’re answering Education > STEM Appeal to your role as thought leaders in innovation, creativity and growth to drive education thinking in your organisations and at the national level Share some research into the way accelerating technologies such as AI will impact the economy of the future
  3. 3. 1953=100 THE GREAT DECOUPLING Andrew McAfee US PRODUCTIVITY, GDP, EMPLOYMENT & INCOME 1953-2011 Labour productivity Median Household Income Real GDP Private Employment
  4. 4. THE SECOND MACHINE AGE Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee “Racing with the machine beats racing against the machine.” Erik Brynjolfsson
  5. 5. cognitive manual routinenon-routine Adapted from ‘the second machine age’ • Scientists & Researchers • Architects • Doctors • Designers • Data Entry & Formatting • Telephone Sales / Advice / Services • Routine Accounting Work • Hair Dressers • Plumbers & Builders • Nurses • Baristas • Checkout & Retail • Distribution Centre Pickers & Packers • Mine Truck / Train Drivers JOB MARKET SHIFTS DEMAND INCREASING ↑ DEMAND DECREASING ↓
  6. 6. Oxford University, December 2014 MICHAEL OSBORNE Employment Probability of Computerisation LOW 33% Employment transportation & material moving production installation, maintenance & repairs construction & extraction farming, fishing & forestry office & administrative support sales & related service healthcare practitioners & technical education, legal, community service, arts & media computer, engineering & science management, business & financial MEDIUM 19% Employment HIGH 47% Employment
  7. 7. OTHER COUNTRIES’ RESPONSES
  8. 8. GERMANY
  9. 9. UNITED KINGDOM FORCED FLEXIBILITY (BUSINESS AS USUAL) THE GREAT DIVIDE SKILLS ACTIVISM INNOVATION ADAPTATION
  10. 10. FUTURE SCENARIO 1
  11. 11. FUTURE SCENARIO 2
  12. 12. 2018 $152 BILLION LOCAL GOVERNMENT OF GUANGDONG CHINA
  13. 13. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA?
  14. 14. What are our kids learning now, and what do they need to learn in the future?
  15. 15. How will our cities, workplaces and transport infrastructure respond to changes in the future of work?
  16. 16. What do these changes mean for the people & jobs in regional areas that are built around a single industry that is likely to be disrupted?
  17. 17. How will Australia remain competitive, when Asian countries and the global market advances so quickly?
  18. 18. For Business WHAT THIS MEANSINTERNAL CHANGES RESPONSES EXTERNAL CHANGES • Major shift in number of staff • Entirely replaced job categories • New jobs, (re)training and skills development • New work practices and industrial relations • New recruitment strategies and processes • Significant change and costs, over years • New property requirements • Balance TSR with CSR • Create the $1bn+ opportunities • Benefit from industry- wide and government collaboration • Major changes to the needs, behaviours and motivations of customers (all segments) • New products, services, value propositions • New pricing models for current products • Shifts in the relative attractiveness/risk profile of customers and products • New markets rise as current markets decline • New capabilities that use new technologies • New and disruptive competitors Strategy, Innovation, Business Model, Risk Management, HR, Change Management Building the business cases for change:
  19. 19. In collaboration with business WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT UNDERSTANDING PLANNING FOR AND HARNESSING THE SHIFT The cumulative effect Welfare Taxes IR Education R&D Infrastructure At a National, State & Local level Across Industries In relation to Regional & Global change
  20. 20. SO, LET’S SEE AN EXAMPLE OF THE DATA, AND SHOW ME WHAT THAT MEANS
  21. 21. AUGMENTATION by working with technology people can accomplish more, and overall job numbers are protected… Totalemploument(‘000s) 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Photographic developers and printers Photographers Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics [67] Jobs in photography
  22. 22. …However, not all people get to enjoy these benefits; it is unlikely that many displaced printing press workers have become graphic designers. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics [67] Jobs in graphic design and printingTotalemploument(‘000s) 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20082006 2010 2012 2014 10 20 30 40 50 60 Printers/graphic press workers Graphic designers
  23. 23. HOW MIGHT WE FOSTER NEW JOBS IN NEW INDUSTRIES, AND NEW SKILLS PEOPLE WILL NEED? VENTURE CAPITAL1 NEW PARADIGMS OF WORK2 DIGITAL INCLUSION3 LABOUR MARKET RE-ACTIVATION4 NEW WORKFORCE STATISTICS5 EDUCATION7 OVERCOMING THE DISINCENTIVE TO BE A MODERN WORKER 6
  24. 24. INCREASED INVESTMENT 600-800 significantly private sector jobs US GDPAmerican venture capital has per year $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ new US enterprises acquire venture capital funding into early start-ups since the GFC venture-backed businesses Encourages innovation, creativity and growth in the small business environment, correlated with job creation [161] VENTURE CAPITAL 11% 21%
  25. 25. Australian VC is declining, accounting for 0.02% of Australian GDP, with funding available for start-ups in decline since the GFC. A 50% increase in the number of patents in Australia in 1999-2013 compared to 16x in China, and migration of Australian skilled workers and entrepreneurs overseas. IN CONTRAST THE EFFECTS Source: ABS, Venture capital and later stage private equity [155] Declining Australian venture capital funding NumberofInvestments 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Early Expansion Start Up Other
  26. 26. TECHNOLOGY IS BRINGING CHANGE In 2012 the number of co-working spaces in Australia increased by 156%, and freelancer.com is booming 4 million Australian households don’t have internet access Infrastructure and funding to help people find new jobs GDP doesn’t measure the value of 24 hour access to services, but it does capture the cost. We must measure productivity, living standards income distribution, labour markets Who provides the funding for freelancer’s superannuation, payroll tax, sick leave and vacation time? For entrepreneurs, and given the VC status, who provides the safety net for the high failure rate associated with start-ups, which can have financial, social and psychological impacts for not only the entrepreneur but also his or her family? so how might we foster new jobs in new industries, and the new skills people will need? VENTURE CAPITAL1 NEW PARADIGMS OF WORK2 DIGITAL INCLUSION3 LABOUR MARKET RE-ACTIVATION4 NEW WORKFORCE STATISTICS5 EDUCATION7 OVERCOMING THE DISINCENTIVE TO BE A MODERN WORKER 6
  27. 27. INVESTMENT IN STEM IS VITAL SAY EMPLOYEES WITH STEM SKILLS ARE THE MOST INNOVATIVE GROWING OCCUPATIONS REQUIRE STEM KNOWLEDGE 70% 75% However, • 1992-2012 STEM participation in Australian schools dropped • OECD STEM PISA rankings: Australia is in relative decline • Students at Australian universities mainly target non-STEM fields of study • By 2030, China and India will provide half of all people with tertiary education, and over 60% of the STEM qualified workers OF EMPLOYERS OFTHE FASTEST SO, STEM INVESTMENT IS IMPORTANT, BUT IS IT ALL WE NEED TO DO?
  28. 28. In 2012 every third adult in the OECD had a tertiary degree THE AGE OF THE GRADUATE BARISTA There’s more going on than investment in STEM will fix Source: Graduate Careers Australia [201] Proportion of bachelor degree graduates working full-time of those available for full-time employment % 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  29. 29. 350 ABS occupations Matched to US Department of Labor O*NET database, which provides breakdowns of the relative importance of 41 different activities in each occupation Statistical learning identified four clusters of activities which best explained changes in employment: 1. Knowledge work: getting, documenting and analysing information, creative thinking and problem solving 2. Higher-level people skills: influencing, negotiating, coaching 3. Machines and physical work: maintenance, operation 4. Service work: caring, working with the public Statistical analysis of the drivers of employment growth across professions, looking at the Australian data going back to 1991: 1. People skills +43% more jobs than the average 2. Machines or physical work -55% below the average WHAT THE TEAM DID (brace yourself)
  30. 30. Australian employers want ‘soft skills’ THERE’S A PERSONAL SKILLS GAP TO BE BRIDGED WILLINGNESS TO LEARN INTERPERSONAL AND COMMUNICATION SKILLS ATTITUDE AND WORK ETHIC SELF-MANAGEMENT TEAMWORK AND MOTIVATION CRITICAL THINKING AND IMAGINATION Innovative thinking and self-development as professionals can set a young employee apart Problem-solving skills and capabilities including creativity and persuasion will also be required to fulfil abstract, non-routine tasks which are less likely to be computerised
  31. 31. EDUCATION QUESTIONS How might we build People Skills for tomorrow’s jobs? The current education system teaches people to be effective in a highly structured system. Australia’s future workforce is likely to encounter much ambiguity and openness. How might we teach this? Our future educational system will need to do more to encourage innovative, entrepreneurial and flexible mindsets. “Innovation Education” was included in the Icelandic national curriculum in 2007. How might we foster the Australian discussion about this? Continual investment in education will be required in order to keep up with the rate of change brought about by developments in digital technology. How might we fund the infrastructure, and the purchase, of lifelong learning? Existing educational institutions are facing business model and service delivery challenges. How might we drive the evolution of Education, so these organisations can deliver on future needs? The current youth unemployment crisis can be viewed as a sign that educators are not providing new workforce entrants with skill sets that are sought after in the current labour market. How might we identify and then invest in the skills that are required in the future?
  32. 32. an action you might consider doing next... YOUR KEY QUESTION WHAT IS YOUR ROLE, AND YOUR COMPANY’S ROLE, IN ENSURING THE FUNDING, DELIVERY AND DEVELOPMENT OF ESSENTIAL SOFT SKILLS, ALONGSIDE STEM? National, metro, regional. Government policy. Professions, job categories. Corporate strategy. Existing and new industries. Near and long term investment. And change.
  33. 33. THE BUSINESS CASE: If we don’t, we’ll likely lose out in the international Knowledge Economy. And that’s not only about how you retain and win new clients and customers. Given the timeframe and significance of the changes ahead... ...IT’S ABOUT... an action you might consider doing next... YOUR KEY QUESTION WHAT IS YOUR ROLE, AND YOUR COMPANY’S ROLE, IN ENSURING THE FUNDING, DELIVERY AND DEVELOPMENT OF ESSENTIAL SOFT SKILLS, ALONGSIDE STEM? National, metro, regional. Government policy. Professions, job categories. Corporate strategy. Existing and new industries. Near and long term investment. And change.
  • SimonOlson2

    Nov. 28, 2019
  • seungchanhan

    Nov. 21, 2019
  • LuJin19

    Nov. 26, 2018
  • JohannesFedon

    Sep. 23, 2018
  • jakubk

    Sep. 1, 2017
  • danielealberti

    Mar. 12, 2017
  • keganslide

    Feb. 28, 2017
  • NaomiGoldin

    Dec. 12, 2016
  • LukasNeckermann

    Jan. 4, 2016
  • ErinPinto

    Dec. 15, 2015

DAZE Melbourne 2015: You and .AI. Man, Machine, & the Future of Work: How Technology will Transform your economy, your workplace, and your child's role in it.

Views

Total views

2,015

On Slideshare

0

From embeds

0

Number of embeds

11

Actions

Downloads

0

Shares

0

Comments

0

Likes

10

×