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How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Public Attitudes To Brexit
What ‘Brexit Means Brexit’ Means to Citizens
Dr Thomas J. Leeper
London School of Economics
Joint with Prof Sara Hobolt and Prof James Tilley
20 April 2018
Research funded by ESRC UK in a Changing Europe
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
1 How did we get here?
2 What does the public want?
3 What has changed?
4 Does this mean polarisation?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
1 How did we get here?
2 What does the public want?
3 What has changed?
4 Does this mean polarisation?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: Ipsos MORI
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
“If there was a referendum on your country’s
membership of the EU, how would you vote?”
Source: YouGov, July 2015
Public Attitudes to Brexit
Public Attitudes to Brexit
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Public Attitudes to Brexit
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Public Attitudes to Brexit
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Public Attitudes to Brexit
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
1 How did we get here?
2 What does the public want?
3 What has changed?
4 Does this mean polarisation?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What don’t the polls tell us?
What kind of Brexit does the public support
or oppose?
When forced to choose, which aspects of
the negotiations are prioritised?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Trend in Trade/Immigration Tradeoff
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conjoint Analysis
Bundle features of Brexit
Force respondents to choose between
bundles
Revealed preferences emerge from those
choices
Estimate relative importance of features
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Differences from Traditional Polling
Advantages
Reduces “cake and eat it” results
Lower social desirability biases
Mimics decision of negotiators/government
Disadvantages
More cognitively complex than traditional
polling
No straightforward “% support” statistics
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What goes in the conjoint?
1 Immigration/freedom of movement
2 Jurisdiction of the ECJ
3 Rights of EU (UK) citizens in UK (EU)
4 ‘Divorce bill’
5 Ongoing payments to EU budget
6 Trade agreement
7 Northern Ireland border
8 Timeline for implementation
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Implementation
26–27 April 2017
YouGov sample (n=3,293)
Respondents make 5 discrete choices
Effective sample of n=16,465
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
All
−0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2025
2023
2021
2020
2019
Passport checks but no customs checks
Customs checks but no passport checks
No passport checks and no customs checks
Full passport and customs checks
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
£70 billion
£50 billion
£20 billion
£10 billion
No payment
£1 billion per year for access
£6 billion per year for access
£12 billion per year for access
No contribution and no access
Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries
Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries
Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave
All can stay indefinitely
All must leave
Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice
Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration
Estimated AMCE
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Leave Remain
−0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2025
2023
2021
2020
2019
Passport checks but no customs checks
Customs checks but no passport checks
No passport checks and no customs checks
Full passport and customs checks
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
£70 billion
£50 billion
£20 billion
£10 billion
No payment
£1 billion per year for access
£6 billion per year for access
£12 billion per year for access
No contribution and no access
Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries
Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries
Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave
All can stay indefinitely
All must leave
Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice
Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration
Estimated AMCE
Feature
Immigration Controls
Legal Sovereignty
Rights of EU Nationals
Ongoing Budget Payment
One−off Payment
Trade Terms
Ireland/NI Border
Timeline
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What respects the referendum?
Beyond preferences, what does the public
think would respect the referendum?
“Which option(s) do you think would
respect the result of the referendum?”
Option A would respect the result
Option B would respect the result
Both would respect the result
Neither would respect the result
Don’t know
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Leave Remain
−0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2025
2023
2021
2020
2019
Passport checks but no customs checks
Customs checks but no passport checks
No passport checks and no customs checks
Full passport and customs checks
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods
£70 billion
£50 billion
£20 billion
£10 billion
No payment
£1 billion per year for access
£6 billion per year for access
£12 billion per year for access
No contribution and no access
Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries
Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries
Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave
All can stay indefinitely
All must leave
Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice
Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now
Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration
Estimated AMCE
Feature
Immigration Controls
Legal Sovereignty
Rights of EU Nationals
Ongoing Budget Payment
One−off Payment
Trade Terms
Ireland/NI Border
Timeline
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
1 How did we get here?
2 What does the public want?
3 What has changed?
4 Does this mean polarisation?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Summarising Trends in One Word
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Summarising Trends in One Word
Stability!
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Tracking Public Opinion
Polling averages (NatCen)
Custom tracking poll
Apr, Jun, Sep 2017; Jan, Apr 2018
Fielded by YouGov (n=1600 per wave)
Go beyond the standard polling questions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Trend in Right/Wrong
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Stability! Except...
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Trend in Government Performance
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Open-ended Question
In a few sentences, please describe
below what you think will be the con-
sequences of Britain leaving the Euro-
pean Union.
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Remain Voters Say
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Leave Voters Say
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Trend in Sentiment
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Perceived Effects of Brexit
Do you think leaving the European Union
will have a positive or negative effect on
Britain?
Do you think leaving the European Union
will have a positive or negative effect on
you personally?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Perceived Effect on Britain
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Perceived Personal Effect
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
1 How did we get here?
2 What does the public want?
3 What has changed?
4 Does this mean polarisation?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
New Identities?
Since the EU referendum last year,
some people now think of themselves
as ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’, do you
think of yourself as...
A Leaver
A Remainer
Neither
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
New Identities?
75% of Leave voters identify as “Leaver”
80% of Remain voters identify as “Remainer”
55% of non-voters identify as neither
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean
Motivated reasoning
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean
Motivated reasoning
Prejudice and animus
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean
Motivated reasoning
Prejudice and animus
The ability to politicise identities
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Out-group animus, already
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Out-group animus, already
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Out-group animus, already
Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Prejudice Conjoints
Two conjoints:
1 Choice of BBC Director General
2 Choice of a lodger
Both involve a series of 5 forced choices
between two alternatives
1 BBC (n = 1635 x 5 x 2)
2 Lodger (n = 1669 x 5 x 2)
Vary eight features of each candidate
Measure how much Leave/Remain
discrimination is present
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Results: BBC Director General
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Leave Remain
−0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2
James
Tom
John
Steve
Chris
Paul
Claire
Sarah
Kate
Becky
Jenny
32 years old
38 years old
44 years old
50 years old
56 years old
62 years old
68 years old
Has never worked for the BBC
Has worked 4 years for the BBC
Has worked 13 years for the BBC
Has worked 21 years for the BBC
Does not have a degree
Has a degree from the University of Manchester
Has a degree from the University of Oxford
Has a PhD from the University of Exeter
Former television producer
Former journalist
Former accountant
Former lawyer
Former civil servant
Didn't support a party at the 2017 election
Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election
Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election
Didn't support a side in the EU referendum
Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum
Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum
Estimated AMCE
Feature
name
age
experience
degree
occupation
party
eu
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Results: Lodger
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Leave Remain
−0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2
James
Tom
John
Steve
Chris
Paul
Claire
Sarah
Kate
Becky
Jenny
19 years old
23 years old
27 years old
31 years old
35 years old
39 years old
44 years old
Full−time student
Works in the public sector
Works for a private company
Self−employed
Likes watching rugby
Likes watching football
Likes playing videogames
Likes playing guitar
Likes cooking
Helps out at the local Catholic church
Helps out at the local Anglican church
Volunteers at an Oxfam shop
Coaches an under−12 football team
Doesn’t do any voluntary work
Didn't support a party at the 2017 election
Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election
Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election
Didn't support a side in the EU referendum
Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum
Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum
Estimated AMCE
Feature
name
age
occupation
hobby
volunteer
party
eu
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conclusions
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conclusions
Opinion stability and little regret
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conclusions
Opinion stability and little regret
Only a few key differences in views
between Leave and Remain voters
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conclusions
Opinion stability and little regret
Only a few key differences in views
between Leave and Remain voters
“Brexit identities” may become defining
feature of British politics
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Conclusions
Opinion stability and little regret
Only a few key differences in views
between Leave and Remain voters
“Brexit identities” may become defining
feature of British politics
What does this mean for the government
and negotiations?
How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
Public Attitudes to Brexit
Features: Immigration
Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU
immigration
No control over EU immigration and similar levels of
EU immigration to now
Some control over EU immigration and similar levels
of EU immigration to now
Some control over EU immigration and lower levels
of EU immigration than now
Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of
EU immigration to now
Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of
EU immigration than now
Features: EU Law/ECJ
Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the
European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by
the European Court of Justice
Britain is subject to some EU laws and some
decisions by the European Court of Justice
Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to
decisions by the European Court of Justice
Features: EU/UK Citizen Rights
All must leave
All can stay indefinitely
Can stay if they continue to work while all others
must leave
Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive
terms than people from non-EU countries
Must apply for leave to remain under the same
terms as people from non-EU countries
Features: Future Payments
No contribution and no access
£12 billion per year for access
£6 billion per year for access
£1 billion per year for access
Features: “Divorce Bill”
No payment
£10 billion
£20 billion
£50 billion
£70 billion
Features: Trade
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and no tariffs on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and no tariffs on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 5% average tariff on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and no tariffs on goods
Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services
and 2.5% average tariff on goods
Features: Ireland/NI Border
Full passport and customs checks
No passport checks and no customs checks
Customs checks but no passport checks
Passport checks but no customs checks
Features: Timeline
2019
2020
2021
2023
2025

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Public Attitudes to Brexit

  • 1. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Public Attitudes To Brexit What ‘Brexit Means Brexit’ Means to Citizens Dr Thomas J. Leeper London School of Economics Joint with Prof Sara Hobolt and Prof James Tilley 20 April 2018 Research funded by ESRC UK in a Changing Europe
  • 2. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 3. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?
  • 4. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?
  • 5. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 6. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions “If there was a referendum on your country’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?” Source: YouGov, July 2015
  • 9. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 11. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 12. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 14. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 16. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 17. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?
  • 18. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What don’t the polls tell us? What kind of Brexit does the public support or oppose? When forced to choose, which aspects of the negotiations are prioritised?
  • 19. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Trade/Immigration Tradeoff Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 20. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conjoint Analysis Bundle features of Brexit Force respondents to choose between bundles Revealed preferences emerge from those choices Estimate relative importance of features
  • 21. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Differences from Traditional Polling Advantages Reduces “cake and eat it” results Lower social desirability biases Mimics decision of negotiators/government Disadvantages More cognitively complex than traditional polling No straightforward “% support” statistics
  • 22. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What goes in the conjoint? 1 Immigration/freedom of movement 2 Jurisdiction of the ECJ 3 Rights of EU (UK) citizens in UK (EU) 4 ‘Divorce bill’ 5 Ongoing payments to EU budget 6 Trade agreement 7 Northern Ireland border 8 Timeline for implementation
  • 23. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Implementation 26–27 April 2017 YouGov sample (n=3,293) Respondents make 5 discrete choices Effective sample of n=16,465
  • 24. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 25. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions All −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE
  • 26. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE Feature Immigration Controls Legal Sovereignty Rights of EU Nationals Ongoing Budget Payment One−off Payment Trade Terms Ireland/NI Border Timeline
  • 27. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 28. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 29. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What respects the referendum? Beyond preferences, what does the public think would respect the referendum? “Which option(s) do you think would respect the result of the referendum?” Option A would respect the result Option B would respect the result Both would respect the result Neither would respect the result Don’t know
  • 30. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE Feature Immigration Controls Legal Sovereignty Rights of EU Nationals Ongoing Budget Payment One−off Payment Trade Terms Ireland/NI Border Timeline
  • 31. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?
  • 32. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 33. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Summarising Trends in One Word
  • 34. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Summarising Trends in One Word Stability!
  • 35. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Tracking Public Opinion Polling averages (NatCen) Custom tracking poll Apr, Jun, Sep 2017; Jan, Apr 2018 Fielded by YouGov (n=1600 per wave) Go beyond the standard polling questions
  • 36. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
  • 37. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
  • 38. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Right/Wrong Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 39. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Stability! Except...
  • 40. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
  • 41. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Government Performance Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 42. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
  • 43. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Open-ended Question In a few sentences, please describe below what you think will be the con- sequences of Britain leaving the Euro- pean Union.
  • 44. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Remain Voters Say Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 45. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Leave Voters Say Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 46. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Sentiment Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 47. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Effects of Brexit Do you think leaving the European Union will have a positive or negative effect on Britain? Do you think leaving the European Union will have a positive or negative effect on you personally?
  • 48. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Effect on Britain Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 49. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Personal Effect Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 50. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 51. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions
  • 52. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?
  • 53. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions New Identities? Since the EU referendum last year, some people now think of themselves as ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’, do you think of yourself as... A Leaver A Remainer Neither
  • 54. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions New Identities? 75% of Leave voters identify as “Leaver” 80% of Remain voters identify as “Remainer” 55% of non-voters identify as neither Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 55. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean
  • 56. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning
  • 57. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning Prejudice and animus
  • 58. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning Prejudice and animus The ability to politicise identities
  • 59. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Out-group animus, already Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 60. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Out-group animus, already Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 61. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Out-group animus, already Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)
  • 62. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Prejudice Conjoints Two conjoints: 1 Choice of BBC Director General 2 Choice of a lodger Both involve a series of 5 forced choices between two alternatives 1 BBC (n = 1635 x 5 x 2) 2 Lodger (n = 1669 x 5 x 2) Vary eight features of each candidate Measure how much Leave/Remain discrimination is present
  • 63. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Results: BBC Director General
  • 64. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2 James Tom John Steve Chris Paul Claire Sarah Kate Becky Jenny 32 years old 38 years old 44 years old 50 years old 56 years old 62 years old 68 years old Has never worked for the BBC Has worked 4 years for the BBC Has worked 13 years for the BBC Has worked 21 years for the BBC Does not have a degree Has a degree from the University of Manchester Has a degree from the University of Oxford Has a PhD from the University of Exeter Former television producer Former journalist Former accountant Former lawyer Former civil servant Didn't support a party at the 2017 election Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election Didn't support a side in the EU referendum Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum Estimated AMCE Feature name age experience degree occupation party eu
  • 65. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Results: Lodger
  • 66. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2 James Tom John Steve Chris Paul Claire Sarah Kate Becky Jenny 19 years old 23 years old 27 years old 31 years old 35 years old 39 years old 44 years old Full−time student Works in the public sector Works for a private company Self−employed Likes watching rugby Likes watching football Likes playing videogames Likes playing guitar Likes cooking Helps out at the local Catholic church Helps out at the local Anglican church Volunteers at an Oxfam shop Coaches an under−12 football team Doesn’t do any voluntary work Didn't support a party at the 2017 election Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election Didn't support a side in the EU referendum Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum Estimated AMCE Feature name age occupation hobby volunteer party eu
  • 67. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions
  • 68. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret
  • 69. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key differences in views between Leave and Remain voters
  • 70. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key differences in views between Leave and Remain voters “Brexit identities” may become defining feature of British politics
  • 71. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key differences in views between Leave and Remain voters “Brexit identities” may become defining feature of British politics What does this mean for the government and negotiations?
  • 72. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)
  • 74. Features: Immigration Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now
  • 75. Features: EU Law/ECJ Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice
  • 76. Features: EU/UK Citizen Rights All must leave All can stay indefinitely Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non-EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non-EU countries
  • 77. Features: Future Payments No contribution and no access £12 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £1 billion per year for access
  • 78. Features: “Divorce Bill” No payment £10 billion £20 billion £50 billion £70 billion
  • 79. Features: Trade Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods
  • 80. Features: Ireland/NI Border Full passport and customs checks No passport checks and no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks Passport checks but no customs checks