This document discusses complex adaptive systems and how understanding their properties can help analyze wicked problems like terrorism. It defines systems and complexity, explores how systems change over time through mechanisms like evolution, learning and adaptation. It notes that social systems can display punctuated equilibrium and discusses analyzing problems through a system dynamics approach. It describes wicked problems and how terrorism demonstrates complex adaptive system qualities. The document advocates understanding networks and applying complexity science tools to gain insights for intelligence analysis and national security challenges.

1. A Foray Into Complexity
Nancy K. Hayden
nkhayde@sandia.gov
September 26, 2011

2. Blessed are the
curious for they
shall have
adventures.
Lovell Drachman
Some problems
are so complex
that you have to be
highly intelligent
and well- informed
just to be
undecided about
them.
Laurence J. Pete
I haven't a clue as to how my story will end. But that's all right. When you set out on
a journey and night covers the road, that's when you discover the stars.Nancy
Willard
Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived.Thomas
Merton

3. Outline
• Definitions
– What constitutes a system?
– What does it mean to be simple? complex? adaptive?
• System Dynamics
– What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave?
– What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS?
– How are they measured?
• Wicked Problems
• Application to Terrorism and National
Security
– Shaping and/or predicting behaviors

4. Definitions
System:an internally organized whole where elements are so
intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to
external conditions and other systems. An element may be
defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the
whole.Every system forms a whole, but not every whole is a system.
Complex system : one whose elements may also be
regarded as systems or subsystems.
Structure: implies not only the position of elements in space
but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm,
the law of mutation of a process. It is the law or set of laws
that determine a system's composition and functioning, its
properties and stability. Any breakdown in structure, any
deformation of an organ leads to a distortion of the function.
Function organizes structure.
Structure determines function

5. Some Important System
Characteristics to Consider
Closed or Open
Static or Dynamic
Bounded or unbounded
Equilibrium or Disequilibrium
Ordered, Complex, Chaos and/or
Random

6. Measuring Complexity
Innovation
Surprise
Unpredictable
Structural Complexity
0 1
Randomness

7. Ordered
Complex
Random

8. System State Can Change…
…affecting structural form, function, and behaviors

9. Structure and Behaviors

10. System Dynamics
• Structure:defined by components and composition
• Behavior:involves inputs,
processing and outputs of
material, energy, information,
or data
• Interconnectivity:the various parts of a system have functional
as well as structural relationships to each other.
• Interactions:cooperative/competitive;
directional; positive/negative;
attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; ….

11. Change Mechanisms in Systems
Vary inTiming, Intentionality, Discovery
• Mutation:random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)
• Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved
fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations
• Co-evolution:the existence of one species is tightly bound up with
the life of another species
• Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing
knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences; may involve
synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).
• Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better
suited to their environment (three levels)
• Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an
extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant
evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and
involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)

12. Punctuated Equilibrium

13. Punctuated Equilibrium
in Social Systems

14. Causal Loop
Diagram with
Feedback
System Dynamics
modeling yields non-
intuitive insights into
relationships between
stocks, flows, and agent
interactions.

15. Putting it all together:
Frame the Problem
System Complexity
Analysis approach
depends on what question
is being asked, in what
timeframe
Question Epistemology

17. Social Complexity Creates
“Wicked Problems”
A wicked problem is one for which each attempt to create a solution
changes the understanding of the problem. Wicked problems cannot be
solved in a traditional linear fashion, because the problem definition
evolves as new possible solutions are considered and/or implemented.

18. Wicked Problems
1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem”…
…you don’t understand it till you solve it.
2. There is no end to the problem.
3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.
4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to the
problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially
unique.
5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”;
because there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error,
every attempt counts significantly.
6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is
there a well-described set of permissible operations that may
be incorporated into a plan.
7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.
8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the
problem can be explained in numerous ways.

20. Terrorism is a Complex Problem
The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it
scenario
Logistics/ driven
Multidimensional hypothesis
Infrastructure
Games MOADB
Social/ Red, Blue, Green
indications
psychological White, Purple & warnings
enhanced
Simulation collection
Knowledge Network smart decision making individuals
and groups
increase warn first
hope manipulate - deceive - responders
control - dissuade -
deter - destroy mitigate
Reality

21. Terrorism: It’s About People
•Poor economic conditions and low
human Capital Development in Arab
world will continue
•Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate,
superstition, conspiracy…will continue to
expound victimization narratives
•Role of US/Israel as crusaders against
backdrop of changing balance of powers
(EU, Asia,..)
Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations •Fundamental religious movements will
continue (?) to foster rebellion against
modernism

22. Complexity Science Yields
New Analysis Paradigms
Santa Fe Institute
Workshop April 10-11, 2003
How Complex Adaptive
Systems Dynamics
are Related to
Understanding and
Modeling Terrorist Behavior
Sandia, Argonne, LANL,
CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy
Cornell, U of Penn, Intel,
CMU, Icosystems, USAF,
Galisteo, Humana, Alidade,
U of Maryland, MIIS,
Intrinsic network features
Brookings Institute
transcend domains

23. Network Architectures
Connected Ring
Small Worlds
Ring
Freshwater
TB Contagion Food Web
Giant Star
High School
Friendships Trees Weak Links
Cliques
Yeast Proteins High School Dating Web Sites Books on Politics

24. Network Metrics
• Connectivity, centrality, betweeness
• Degree
• Clustering
• Resilience
• Tranmissivity
• Directionality
• Reciprocity
• Path length
• …

25. Scale Free Networks
Growth by Preferential Attachment
“Rich get Richer”

26. Sample Questions
• Who are key players & what makes them so?
• Where are the trust networks?
• How do ideas transmit, how long-lasting are
they, and can they be changed?
• What are critical links in supply chains?
• When does disruption cause innovation
versus defeat?
• Where are the power centers?
• How will people respond to new systems?

27. Systems Thinking
and National Security
Intelligence/security
Analysts
System Complexity
Remote Sensing
Academic emphasis
Evidentiary
Law Enforcement Reasoning
Case Studies Red Teaming
Field Surveys Gaming
Observation Statistical Analysis Network Analysis
Table Top Social Network
Exercises Analysis Modeling &
Simulation
Question Epistemology

29. Summary
Complex adaptive systems
– Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictable
– Are not the only kinds of systems desired
– Develop structure to serve function
• Can be understood by observing structure
• Can be shaped by their structure
• Emergent behavior can be anticipated/measured using
structural metrics
– Co-evolve with other CAS
– Create new CAS