OECD Global Trends in Higher Education

1
1
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Global trends in higher education
UUK, Andreas Schleicher

6 September 2011

Embargo until
13 September
11:00 Paris

6 September 2011

2 Education in times of economic uncertainty
2

 In the current economic environment…
… Continued strong demand for education

– Poor labour markets and low opportunity costs for education
… Substantial public and private gains from education
– Earnings premium for tertiary education remains large and
continues to grow
- Public long-term gains from higher education are almost
three times the size of the investments
… High-level skills key to competitiveness
6 September 2011

… Comparative cost advantage across OECD countries
varies with educational levels
… Labour-market entry becomes more difficult
– Particularly for young lower educated individuals
… Education a good insurance against unemployment and to
stay employed especially in weak labour markets
 Educational attainment likely to rise further
 Continuing education increasingly important.

3
3

The crisis hit
the least educated hardest
6 September 2011

The unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds increased,
on average, from 10.2% to 13.5%
Lack of relevant skills/experience brings higher
unemployment risk for recent entrants
to the labour force

4
4 When the crisis hit
Percentage-point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds

2008 2009
Below upper secondary Tertiary education (%)

education (%)
Spain Spain
Estonia Estonia
Turkey Turkey
Ireland Ireland
Slovak Republic Slovak Republic
United States United States
Greece Greece
Hungary Hungary
Portugal Portugal
Canada Canada
Finland Finland
Israel Israel
Germany Germany
Chile Chile
Poland Poland
Brazil Brazil
6 September 2011

France France
OECD average OECD average
Belgium Belgium
Sweden Sweden
Japan Japan
Italy Italy
Slovenia Slovenia
Czech Republic Czech Republic
Denmark Denmark
Mexico Mexico
Australia Australia
New Zealand New Zealand
Korea Korea
Austria Austria
United Kingdom United Kingdom
Luxembourg Luxembourg
Switzerland Switzerland
Netherlands Netherlands
Norway Norway

C3.1 - 10 20 30 40 - 10 20 30 40

6 September 2011 UUK, Andreas Schleicher 8
8

Unabated educational expansion

9
9
Australia
Austria
Belgium
A world of change – higher education

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 1995
Finland
France 25,000.0
Germany Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Cost per student
20,000.0
Iceland
United States
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0 Finland
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0 Japan
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland Graduate supply
Turkey
United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate
United States

10
10
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2000
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

United Kingdom
Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

11
11
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2001
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Australia
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

12
12
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2002
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

13
13
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2003
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

14
14
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2004
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

15
15
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2005
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

16
16
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2006
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

17
17
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2007
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

18
18
Australia
Austria
Belgium

Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
30,000.0

Denmark
Estonia 2008
Finland
France 25,000.0
Greece
Hungary
20,000.0
Iceland Finland
Ireland
Israel
Italy 15,000.0
Japan
Korea
6 September 2011

Luxembourg 10,000.0
Mexico
Netherland
New Zealand
Norway 5,000.0
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic 0.0
Slovenia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United States

20
20 The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups, percentage (2009)

55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
6 September 2011

About 39 million people About 81 million people
who attained tertiary level who attained tertiary level

21
21 The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups, percentage (2009)

55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population

United
United other, 12.6
States, 17.9
other, 11.4 States, 31.7
Korea, 1.4
Australia, 1.5 Korea, 5.0
Mexico, 1.6 Australia, 1.4
6 September 2011

Italy, 1.7
Mexico, 3.4
Spain, 1.9
Italy, 1.7 Japan, 9.5
Brazil, 3.1
Spain, 3.1
France, 3.1

Canada, 3.7 Brazil, 3.9

United France, 3.5 China, 16.0
Kingdom, 4.7 Japan, 11.0 Canada, 2.7
Germany, 5.6 Germany, 2.7
China, 6.1
United
Kingdom, 3.9

22
22 …and will continue to change
Share of new entrants into tertiary education in 2009 (all OECD and G20 countries)

Other China, 36.6%
countries, 4.8%

Netherlands, 0.5
% Other
Portugal 0.5%
Chile, 1.3% Czech Republic 0.4%
Australia, 1.3% Israel 0.4%
6 September 2011

Sweden 0.4%
Italy, 1.4%
Belgium 0.4%
Spain, 1.6% Hungary 0.4%
Poland, 2.1% Austria 0.4%
New Zealand 0.3%
Germany, 2.5% United Switzerland 0.3%
States, 12.9%Slovak Republic 0.3%
Argentina, 2.7%
Denmark 0.2%
Korea, 3.1% Norway 0.2%
Ireland 0.2%
Mexico, 3.1% Russian Finland 0.2%
Federation, 10.0 Slovenia 0.1%
United
% Estonia 0.1%
Kingdom, 3.3%
Japan, 4.2% Indonesia, 4.9% Iceland 0.0%
Turkey, 3.7%

25
25

The increase in the number of knowledge
workers has not led to a decrease in their pay
…which is what happened to low-skilled workers
6 September 2011

Components of the private net present value for a man
26
26

with higher education (2007 or latest available year)
Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect
Social contribution effect Transfers effect Grosss earnings benefits
Unemployment effect

Portugal 373,851
United States 323,808
Italy 311,966
Korea 300,868
Ireland 253,947
Czech Republic 240,449
Hungary 230,098
Slovenia 225,663
Poland 215,125
United Kingdom 207,653
Canada 175,670
OECD Average 175,067
Austria 173,522
6 September 2011

Germany 147,769
France 144,133
Japan 143,018
Finland 135,515 Net
Belgium 115,464 present
Netherlands 112,928 value in
Australia 100,520
Spain 95,320 USD
Norway 92,320 equ.
New Zealand 74,457
Turkey 64,177
Sweden 62,481
Denmark 55,946

-400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
USD equivalent
C hart A9.3

28
28 Percentage-point change in relative earnings
25-64 year-olds (1998-2008 or latest available years)

Below upper
OECD countries Tertiary secondary
Australia 1.6 0.8

1.6 0.8
Austria* 2.8 2.8 -6.0 -6.0
Belgium* 3.7 3.7 -0.6 -0.6
Canada* 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
Czech Republic 9.1 9.1 2.9 2.9
Denmark 3.2 3.2 -4.9 -4.9
Finland* -6.2 -6.2 -2.5 -2.5
France -3.6 -3.6 1.4 1.4
Germany 21.6 21.6 7.3 7.3
Hungary 11.1 11.1 1.4 1.4
Ireland* 10.9 10.9 -5.4 -5.4
Israel* 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1
Italy* 11.7 1.0
6 September 2011

11.7 1.0
Korea* -9.7 -9.7 2.2 2.2
Luxembourg* 16.8 16.8 -12.6 -12.6
Netherlands* 10.8 10.8 -2.4 -2.4
New Zealand -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2
Norway* -5.5 -5.5 -5.6 -5.6
Poland* 6.1 6.1 0.7 0.7
Portugal -8.7 -8.7 5.8 5.8
Slovenia* -7.4 -7.4 -0.3 -0.3
Spain* 12.5 12.5 0.9 0.9
Sweden -5.2 -5.2 -6.0 -6.0
Switzerland 1.2 1.2 -1.0 -1.0
United Kingdom -3.2 -3.2 1.0 1.0
United States 13.0 13.0 -0.5 -0.5
TA8.2a
* Limited years; Other notes: Yellow within +/- 3%; Red > -3%; Green > +3%

29
29

Skills and social outcomes
Odds ratios
Has fair to poor health

2.6
Does not volunteer for
2.4 charity or non-profit
2.2 organizations
Poor understanding of
2.0 political issues facing
country
1.8 Poor level of general trust
6 September 2011

1.6
Higher propensity of
1.4
believing people try to take
1.2 of advantage of others
Lower propensity to
1.0 reciprocate
Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
PIAAC skill level Poor political efficacy

31

Taxpayers are getting a good return too

Public cost and benefits for a man obtaining tertiary education
32
32
(2007 or latest available year)
Public benefits Public costs
United States 193,584
Germany 168,649

Belgium 167,241
Hungary 166,872
Slovenia 155,664
Finland 100,177
Netherlands 95,030
Poland 94,125
OECD Average 91,036
Austria 89,705
Portugal 89,464
Korea 89,034
Ireland 85,917
6 September 2011

Australia 84,532
Italy 82,932
Czech Republic 81,307
Canada 79,774
Japan 67,411
France 63,701
Net present
Norway 43,419
value
New Zealand 46,482
Sweden 37,542
Spain 29,582
Denmark 28,621
Turkey 21,724

Chart A9.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
In equivalent USD

33

Consumption or economic use?

34 Skills acquisition and use, 25-64 year-olds
34
with a tertiary education (2009)

%

Employment rate of population with tertiary education, %

91
Norway
Switzerland
89 Netherlands
Slovenia
Iceland
Sweden Denmark
87 Portugal Austria Germany
Brazil
Poland
85 Luxembourg
United Kingdom Australia
Czech Republic Belgium Finland New Zealand
France OECD Average
83 Slovak Republic
Estonia
Greece Israel
Ireland
Mexico
81 Spain Canada
6 September 2011

United States
Japan
Italy
79 Hungary
Chile
77
Korea
75
Turkey
73
10 20 30 40 50

Proportion of population with tertiary education, %
Chart A7.3

42

International mobility

43 An increasingly mobile student population
43

In 2009, over 3.7 million tertiary students were


enrolled outside their country of citizenship
 New players are emerging in an increasingly
competitive market for international education
 Australia and the Russian Federation expanded their market
share by two percentage points over the past decade, and
Korea, New Zealand and Spain by one percentage point each
6 September 2011

 Share of the USA dropped from 23% to 18%
Germany, the UK and Belgium also lost ground
 Largest numbers of international students are from
China, India and Korea

Evolution by region of destination in the number
44
44

of students enrolled outside their country of
citizenship (2000 to 2009)
Worldwide in OECD in EU countries

in G20 countries in North America

Number of foreign students
4 000 000

3 500 000

3 000 000

2 500 000
6 September 2011

2 000 000

1 500 000

1 000 000

500 000

0
Chart 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
C3.1

Distribution of foreign students in tertiary
45
45

education, by country of destination (2009)
Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD)
who are enrolled in each country of destination

Other non-OECD
countries 15.7
Other OECD
United States
countries 6.0
18.0
Sweden 1.1

Netherlands 1.2

Belgium 1.3 United Kingdom
Switzerland 1.3 9.9
6 September 2011

Korea 1.4
Austria 1.6
Australia 7.0
South Africa 1.7

China 1.7
Germany 7.0
Italy 1.8
New Zealand 1.9
France 6.8
Spain 2.3

Chart
Canada 5.2
Japan 3.6
C3.2 Russian
Federation 3.7

46
46 Trends in international education market shares
Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination

2000 2009
Market share (%)

25
The figure for other non-OECD countries refers to
the part of the total foreign students studying in
20 other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained
after subtracting China, South Africa and the
Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD
15 destinations as estimated from UNESCO data.

10
6 September 2011

5

0
United States

Netherlands
Belgium
China

Austria

Korea
Australia

Canada

Switzerland
Germany

South Africa
Italy

Other non-OECD
United Kingdom

France

Sweden
Spain

Other OECD
Japan

New Zealand
Russian Federation

Chart
C3.3

Percentage of international students changing status and
48
48

staying on in selected OECD countries, 2008 or 2009
Percentage of students who have changed their status (whether for work, family or
other reasons) among students who have not renewed their permits

%
35

30

25

20

15
6 September 2011

10

5

0
Germany

Norway
Australia

Ireland
Canada

Spain

Austria
New Zealand
Netherlands

United Kingdom

Finland
France

Japan
Czech Republic

Chart C3.5

49
49
Distribution of foreign students in tertiary
education, by country of origin (2009)

China, 16.5

India, 6.2

Korea, 3.8

Other non-OECD
Germany, 2.9
non-G20
countries, 46.0
France, 1.6
6 September 2011

United
States, 1.6
Russian
Federation, 1.6
Turkey, 1.4
Other non-OECD
G20 Canada, 1.4
countries, 1.3
Other OECD Japan, 1.4
countries, 9.8 Italy, 1.3
Poland, 1.0 Saudi Indonesia, 1.1
T C3.2
Arabia, 1.0

51

Who pays for what, when and how?

52

0.5
2.5
3.0

0.0
2.0

1.5

1.0
United States

% of GDP
Korea
Canada

Chart B6.2
Chile
Finland
Norway
Israel
New Zealand
Sweden
Netherlands
Australia
OECD average
Poland
Ireland
France
Belgium
Portugal
Educational core services

Austria
Mexico
Research and development (R&D)

Spain
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Germany
Total expenditure on educational institutions

Slovenia
Italy
as a percentage of GDP (2008)

Slovak Republic
in tertiary educational institutions

Hungary
Brazil
Denmark
Russian…
Japan
Estonia
Iceland
Ancillary services (transport, meals, housing provided by institutions)

Argentina
Expenditure on core services, R&D and ancillary services

Changes in student numbers and expenditure
55
55

for tertiary education
Index of change between 2000 and 2008 (2000=100, 2008 constant prices)

Change in expenditure

Index of change Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)
(2000 = 100) Change in expenditure per student
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
6 September 2011

130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Japan

Australia

Iceland
Spain

Austria

Ireland

Norway

Brazil
Portugal

France

Italy

Germany
Denmark
Poland
Korea

Czech Republic

Canada

Belgium

Sweden

Netherlands

Hungary
Israel
Estonia
United Kingdom

Finland

Chile
Mexico

OECD average

United States
Slovak Republic
Chart B1.6

56

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
Chile
Korea
Japan

Chart B3.3
United Kingdom
United States
Australia
Israel
Canada
Portugal
Poland
2008

Mexico
OECD average
New Zealand
Italy
Netherlands
2005

Slovak Republic
Estonia
Spain
Czech Republic
France
2000
percentage, by level of education

Ireland
Slovenia
Austria
Germany
Sweden
Belgium
Iceland
Share of private expenditure on tertiary

Finland
educational institutions (2000, 2005, 2008)

Denmark

Average annual tuition fees charged by tertiary-type A
58
58 public institutions for full-time national students
(academic year 2008-09)

USD

United States (70%, 29 910)

6000

Korea (71%, 10 109)
5000
United Kingdom1 (61%, 15 314)
Japan (49%, 16 533),
Australia (94%, 16 297),
4000
Canada (m, 24 384) This chart does not
take into account
New Zealand (78%, 11 125) grants, subsidies or
3000
6 September 2011

loans that partially
or fully offset the
students’ tuition fees
2000
Netherlands (63%, 17 245)

Portugal (84%, 10 373), Italy (50%, 9 556),
1000 Spain (46%, 13 928),
Austria (54%, 15 081), Switzerland (41%, 23 284)
Belgium (Fr. and Fl.) (m, m)
500
France (m, 14 945)
Chart 0 Czech Republic (59%, 8 738), Denmark (55%, 17 634), Finland (69%, 15 402), Ireland
B5.2 (51%, 16 284), Iceland (77%, 10 429), Mexico (35%, 7 504), Norway (77%, 18 942),
Sweden (68%, 20 864)
1. Public institutions do not exist at this level of education and most students are enrolled in government-dependent private institutions.

59 Public and private investment for a man obtaining
59
higher education (2007 or latest available year)

Private direct cost Private foregone earnings Public direct cost Public foregone earnings

Private costs Public costs

Netherlands 161,110
Austria 119,458
Germany 112,018
Denmark 103,660
Canada 100,378
Sweden 99,960
Norway 98,176
Finland 94,315
Italy
6 September 2011

85,603
OECD average 79,821
Australia 71,057
Belgium 61,658
New Zealand 59,711
Spain 56,077
Hungary 52,065
Portugal 46,603
Poland 44,268 Total
Korea 43,039 investment
Czech Rep. 38,466 private+public
Turkey 23,899

-100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000
Chart A9.4
USD equivalent

64
64

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 Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org
Thank you !
… and remember:
6 September 2011

Without data, you are just another person
with an opinion Embargo until
13 September
11:00 Paris

OECD Global Trends in Higher Education

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