Presentation by Nupur Gupta, Senior Transport Specialist, World Bank.

1. Low Carbon Mobility
Future for Indonesian
Cities
7-8 March2023
NupurGupta
Sr.UrbanTransportSpecialist
OECDBAPPENASForesightIndonesiaWorkshop
TransportSession:ITF-OECD

2. URBAN TRANSPORT
CHALLENGES
1. Cities play an important role in
economy, but CONGESTION
HINDERS ECONOMIC GROWTH
and equality
2. Responsibility for urban transport has
been decentralized, however, SUB-
NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE
NEITHER FISCAL NOR TECHNICAL
CAPACITY
3. LOW PUBLIC TRANSPORT mode
share and dominance of motorcycles
4. Indonesia has a huge DEFICIT IN
TRANSIT infrastructure and service
including active mobility
Congestion impacts in six metropolitan
areas*
2.2 million liters of excess fuel
use per day
6 million person hours lost per
day
US$ 5.1 billion economic
losses per year in excess fuel and
time
Source: World Bank, 2019
* Jabodetabek, Bandung, Surabaya, Semarang, Medan &
Makassar

3. Over 50% of population resides in urban areas
… and almost 60%* GDP derives from cities
… pointing to the importance of efficient urban mobility and competitive cities to overall development. Roughly 14
cities with population of one million and above and 26 cities with population of half a million and above
10,229,032
2,858,928
2,768,941
2,488,417
2,224,647
2,161,171
2,081,999
1,722,044
1,594,110
1,580,997
1,464,549
1,224,434
1,060,467
1,057,894
990,092
909,075
893,136
855,094
824,360
681,988
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
DKI
Jakarta
Surabaya
Bekasi
Bandung
Medan
Depok
Tangerang
Semarang
Palembang
Tangerang
Selatan
Makassar
Batam
Bogor
Pekanbaru
Bandar
Lampung
Padang
Denpasar
Malang
Samarinda
Banjatmasin
City
Population
*Source: WB Urban Flagship Time to ACT 2010

4. Rapid Motorization and Growth in Personal Modes
driving congestion, road safety, local & global emissions…
12%
7%
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1%
67%
57% 55%
72% 70% 69%
78%
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Public & Personal Mode Share % 2019*
Personal modes in particular 2-wheelers have overtaken all modes, with public transport playing an increasingly
residual role in Indonesian cities, much lower than what we see in other Asian cities
*Source: SAKARNAS
Public
Transport
Mode
Share
Population Density (person/km2)

5. … leading to Growing GHG Emissions
536,306 538,025
562,244
595,665
638,808
118,269 124,118 133,689 140,678 145,116
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Transport Sector Emissions in Energy Gg-CO2 eq
Energy Transport Land Transport
Transport has grown to constitute 25% of the total energy emissions in Indonesia, driven by road transport
emissions and within those personal modes. Transport emissions are growing rapidly
25
Transport Emissions %
Transport Other
*Source: GOI

6. Transit supply is
dominated by
Angkots
• Over 90% of the transit
in Indonesian cities is
serviced by 10-12 seater
mini-vans called
Angkots
• Given the poor quality
of service, users shift to
personal modes as soon
as they become
affordable

7. Limited investment in Urban Mobility … Need for National
Government Support
7
• Implementation of urban transport is responsibility of sub-
national governments (UU 23/2014), but fiscal and
technical capacities an issue
• Sustainable urban mobility interventions few and far
between, and transit services substantially in the
unorganized space
• Furthermore, urban public transport investments and
services cannot be integrated and often must stop at city
boundary (e.g. MRT Jakarta)
• Existing national support is mostly on ad-hoc basis and not
effective (e.g. through issuance of President Regulations
for LRT Palembang and LRT Jabodetabek; Buy the Service
Scheme (BTS) direct contracting and management by MOT)
• Absence of an enabling policy framework clarifying the
planning, institutional and funding arrangements – need
for an urban mobility policy framework
• Therefore, need a National Mass Transit Program to ensure
a more effective and structured support, and encourage
sub-national governments in a metropolitan area to
collaborate in mass transit investments and operation. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mexico
India
Brazil 95 %
90 %
50-90 %
70 %
50 %
Portion of central government support in other countries
7
Cites have insufficient borrowing capacity* to meet the investment
costs
* Based on the lesser of 75% of Gross City revenue and Debt Service Coverage ratio of 2.5

8. Efficient and sustainable
urban mobility
• ASA funded by the Indonesia Sustainable Urbanization Multi-Donor Trust Fund (IDSUN)
• Supported Bappenas and Ministry of Transportation in developing IMTP
• National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) for 2020-24 identified urban public transport development as national priority and
targets developing mass transit systems in 6 cities of Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Medan, Semarang and Makassar
• Bappenas has initiated the process of Sustainable Mobility Plan development in these cities which are to form the basis of the proposed
mass transit proposals
Key Elements of IMTP:
Compliance with Decentralization Law by sub-national government taking ownership of
taking ownership of implementation of mass transit systems at city-provincial level
National government funding for:
• Capex support for Mass Transit Development – presently possible through MoT “in-kind” support
“in-kind” support
• Technical support and capacity building to enable cities and provinces to develop the institutional
the institutional structures and personnel to effectively plan, implement and manage mass transit
manage mass transit operations
Sub-national government:
• Covering all the operating deficit (shortfall between revenue and O&M costs)
Leverage of private and commercial financing, through allocation of revenue risk to
of revenue risk to the public sector and use of availability payments to pay for service delivered
delivered
Building in “Best Practice” by linking release of national support to compliance by sub-national
by sub-national government with a stage-wise approval process of eligibility, readiness and project
readiness and project viability
Indonesian Mass Transit Program (IMTP)

9. Efficient and sustainable
urban mobility
Component 1: Institutional and Capacity Development
This will support:
• Program Management and Development of the national support
program for mass transit and urban mobility. This will include design and
development of the program in MOT and the sector and capacity
development tools and activities at sub-national levels
• Project Management for Demo mass transit Projects
• Institutional Development for MOT, Greater Bandung (West Java) and
Greater Medan (North Sumatra)
Component 2: Demonstration Mass Transit Projects in Select Cities
Greater Bandung and Greater Medan selected urban areas
The first phase of priority investments:
• Bus Rapid Transit Lite in Bandung
• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Medan
The project will support
• Financing infrastructure and/or equipment; and VGF or other cash
support, if needed
• Leveraging private sector financing
PDO: To enhance urban mobility and accessibility on high-priority corridors in selected Indonesian cities and
strengthen institutional capacity for mass transit development
Indonesia Mass Transit Project (MASTRAN)
• Proposed loan amount: US$264 million +$50 mn counterpart (Co-financing from AFD)
• Conceived as Phase I of the proposed Mass Transit Program

10. Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) Framework for Indonesia
• Strategies pertaining to reduced
quantum of travel, either
through reduced number of
trips or reduced length of trips
• Involve integrated land use and
transport planning to achieve
compact and efficient cities
• Impacts realized over the long
terms
• Major gains possible in the
longer term in Indonesian urban
areas through investment in
AVOID strategies
• Strategies promoting a shift to
cleaner and more sustainable
modes, i.e. from personal modes
to transit or walking and cycling
• Demand management strategies
involving increased cost of
purchase and O&M of personal
modes and reduced costs of
transit, such as taxes & subsidies,
parking management, low
emission zones
• Large gains possible through
investment in (i) increased supply
of quality transit services, (ii)
seamless walking-cycling
infrastructure and (iii) pricing
strategies
• Efficiency improvement
strategies
• Involving cleaner fuels such as
electric mobility; however, high
capital costs and coal-based
energy source is limiting the
uptake as well as GHG reduction
• Route rationalization and
integration with Angkots
• Adoption of fuel standards, such
as Euro IV for HDV which
recently became effective
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE
Large gains are possible through leveraging SHIFT and IMPROVE strategies in the short to medium term and AVOID in the long term

11. • Prioritize mode shift strategies covering (i)
increased supply of attractive transit options, (ii)
integrated walking and cycling and last mile
connectivity, (iii) demand management strategies
• Target transit mode shares of 25% by 2034, from a low of
2-15% in most cities, resulting in reductions of 15% GHG*
by 2040
• Plus implement high performance MRT systems with 100%
transit electrification, leading to reduction of 25% GHG*
• Large gains from congestion reduction, improvements in
road safety and economic competitiveness
• Complement with improve electrification
strategies
• Standalone electrification strategies are suboptimal as
issues of congestion and road safety are not addressed
• Reductions are limited to 2-5% owing to dirty power
sources, especially until mid 2030
• Reductions can be enhanced after, especially through
faster electrification of 2W and cars
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2021 2025 2030 2035 2040
Potential Reduction in Urban Passenger
Transport GHG with Mass Transit Strategies
25% PT Mode Share 25%+100% PT elect
25%+MRT+PT Electric
* World Bank Analysis of GHG estimates for urban cores of 29 major urban
agglomerations in Indonesia comprising 32% of total urban population
World Bank Analysis … Public Transit Focus

12. World Bank Analysis … High Electrification
Stand alone electrification strategies are suboptimal. GHG emission reductions in the high electrification
scenario could be significantly enhanced to 31% and 36% respectively by 2040, by targeting an increase in
transit mode share and further investment in sophisticated mass rapid transit systems in larger cities.
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2021 2025 2030 2035 2040
High electrification only 25% Transit Mode Share 25% Transit Mode Share+MRT
Reduction in urban transport GHG from BAU assuming significant vehicle electrification by 2034 (PT 100%,
car 25%, motorcycle 50%)

13. Key Takeaways
Transport emissions are growing rapidly driven by the rapid motorization, growing
dependence on personal modes in the absence of attractive transit alternatives, leading to
congestion, pollution and loss in productivity
Establish a comprehensive and enabling National Urban Mobility Policy Framework to
redirect sector development along sustainable and low carbon pathways – according priority to
transit, NMT and integrated planning - comprising vision, goals & targets, strategy and plan,
institutional and funding mechanisms
Launch National Assistance Scheme - to support sub-national governments with development
of mass transit systems; 6 metropolitan areas identified under RPJMN 2020-24; next set of
cities to be identified under RPJMN 2025-29; scheme for supporting city transit including
electrification using cash grants would be the next step
Accelerate E-Mobility adoption through a focus on select vehicle types and within an urban
mobility framework through public fleet mandates, targeted monetary incentives, and
innovative business models for e-buses, and removal of licensing, financing and charging
constraints for e-2Ws
Large mobility, GHG emission savings, safety & air quality and development benefits are
expected from above strategies – and the further scale up to other cities – this can begin to
flatten the emission curve and fundamentally shift Indonesian cities along a low carbon
trajectory
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14. Thank You
ngupta1@worldbank.org