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The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  
Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  
	
  
	
  
Written	
  by	
  Daniel	
  W.	
  Rasmus	
  
Managing	
  Director	
  and	
  Principal	
  Analyst	
  
Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  
	
  
This	
  research	
  was	
  sponsored	
  by:	
  
	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   2	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
Executive	
  Summary	
  
This	
  paper	
  reports	
  the	
  results	
  of	
  a	
  pilot	
  research	
  project	
  focused	
  on	
  the	
  quantification	
  value	
  
derived	
  when	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  arises	
  within	
  collaborative	
  systems.	
  Four	
  out	
  of	
  the	
  
five	
  interviews	
  reported	
  value	
  from	
  their	
  collaboration	
  and	
  enterprise	
  social	
  investments,	
  
though	
  most	
  did	
  not	
  capture	
  the	
  actual	
  value	
  that	
  resulted	
  from	
  that	
  activity.	
  	
  The	
  one	
  
company	
  that	
  did	
  not	
  report	
  was	
  too	
  new	
  to	
  the	
  implementation.	
  
On	
  average,	
  collaboration	
  technology	
  took	
  slightly	
  more	
  than	
  three	
  months	
  to	
  return	
  a	
  
measureable	
  serendipitous	
  result.	
  Financial	
  results	
  related	
  to	
  the	
  serendipitous	
  use	
  of	
  
collaboration	
  technology	
  averaged	
  $364,000,	
  but	
  ranged	
  from	
  as	
  small	
  as	
  $20,000	
  to	
  high	
  
as	
  $1,000,000.	
  
Overview	
  of	
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  
The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  concept	
  was	
  created	
  to	
  account	
  for	
  value	
  that	
  extends	
  beyond	
  
that	
  achieved	
  by	
  productivity	
  gains.	
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  focuses	
  primarily	
  on	
  the	
  
value	
  derived	
  from	
  horizontal	
  technology,	
  in	
  particular,	
  communications	
  and	
  collaboration	
  
technology,	
  though	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  applied	
  to	
  marketing	
  communications,	
  education	
  and	
  other	
  
fields.	
  
The	
  idea	
  of	
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  originated	
  from	
  analyst	
  work	
  on	
  return-­‐on-­‐
investment	
  for	
  instant	
  messaging	
  applications.	
  In	
  certain	
  circumstances,	
  like	
  call	
  centers,	
  if	
  
instant	
  messaging	
  was	
  used	
  for	
  a	
  specific	
  purpose,	
  for	
  instance,	
  to	
  allow	
  call	
  center	
  
operators	
  to	
  more	
  quickly	
  reach	
  engineers,	
  a	
  return	
  on	
  investment	
  calculation	
  could	
  be	
  
guesstimated	
  around	
  first-­‐time	
  call	
  resolution,	
  solution	
  quality	
  and	
  customer	
  satisfaction.	
  
When	
  instant	
  messaging,	
  however,	
  was	
  deployed	
  widely	
  as	
  a	
  horizontal	
  communications	
  
technology,	
  it	
  became	
  impossible	
  to	
  forecast	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  use	
  cases	
  ahead	
  of	
  the	
  deployment,	
  
and	
  when	
  examining	
  such	
  use	
  cases	
  historically,	
  many	
  of	
  them	
  represented	
  serendipitous	
  
activity.	
  In	
  other	
  words,	
  without	
  the	
  software,	
  the	
  actors	
  in	
  the	
  event	
  did	
  not	
  know	
  what	
  to	
  
expect,	
  if	
  anything,	
  when	
  they	
  started	
  their	
  dialog.	
  	
  
The	
  other	
  recurring	
  issue	
  that	
  drove	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  
framework	
  was	
  the	
  overuse	
  of	
  industrial	
  age	
  measures,	
  in	
  particular,	
  productivity,	
  as	
  the	
  
primary	
  means	
  of	
  attributing	
  value	
  to	
  collaboration	
  software	
  investments.	
  Where	
  it	
  is	
  true	
  
that	
  collaboration	
  reduces	
  the	
  time	
  and	
  effort	
  required	
  to	
  communicate	
  or	
  create,	
  the	
  
simple	
  reduction	
  in	
  communication	
  or	
  creation	
  time	
  cannot	
  account	
  for	
  all	
  the	
  returns	
  
associated	
  with	
  collaboration	
  software.	
  Even	
  more	
  of	
  an	
  issue,	
  the	
  act	
  of	
  looking	
  for	
  
productivity	
  gain	
  among	
  individuals,	
  functions	
  and	
  organizations	
  at	
  small	
  time	
  scales	
  
causes	
  investigators	
  to	
  miss	
  the	
  serendipitous	
  events	
  that	
  occur	
  over	
  larger,	
  unmonitored,	
  
time	
  scales.	
  
The	
  use	
  of	
  industrial	
  age	
  measures	
  shortchanges	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  collaboration	
  software	
  
investments.	
  Even	
  if	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  a	
  collaboration	
  software	
  investment	
  can	
  be	
  determined	
  to	
  
be	
  greater	
  than	
  its	
  acquisition	
  cost	
  based	
  on	
  productivity	
  gains,	
  the	
  failure	
  to	
  capture	
  the	
  
value	
  of	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  greatly	
  reduces	
  visibility	
  of	
  the	
  actual	
  value	
  derived	
  from	
  the	
  
purchase.	
  This	
  “missing	
  value”	
  is	
  often	
  accounted	
  for	
  in	
  a	
  few	
  anecdotal	
  stories.	
  The	
  
questions	
  created	
  for	
  this	
  study	
  can	
  be	
  used	
  by	
  organizations	
  to	
  more	
  systematically	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   3	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
instrument	
  the	
  gathering	
  of	
  “extra-­‐productive”	
  value	
  derived	
  from	
  their	
  collaboration	
  
software	
  investments.	
  	
  
Because	
  so	
  many	
  organizations	
  are	
  still	
  struggling	
  with	
  high-­‐level	
  implementations	
  of	
  their	
  
collaborative	
  software	
  environments,	
  understanding	
  this	
  value	
  could	
  be	
  critical	
  in	
  
prioritizing	
  investments	
  in	
  awareness,	
  adoption	
  and	
  use	
  that	
  would	
  increase	
  the	
  returns	
  
from	
  underutilized	
  software.	
  
The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Rules	
  
After	
  many	
  years	
  of	
  monitoring	
  collaboration	
  and	
  knowledge	
  management	
  
implementations	
  and	
  examining	
  serendipitous	
  activity,	
  the	
  following	
  six	
  rules	
  emerged:	
  
	
  
Value	
  from	
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  arises	
  from	
  multiple	
  points.	
  In	
  rule	
  number	
  1,	
  
serendipity	
  arises	
  from	
  the	
  process	
  of	
  creating	
  or	
  documenting	
  knowledge,	
  or	
  from	
  the	
  
interpretation	
  of	
  data	
  and	
  its	
  transformation	
  into	
  information.	
  Regardless	
  of	
  how	
  
productive	
  the	
  person	
  who	
  creates	
  or	
  transforms	
  data,	
  until	
  that	
  data	
  is	
  used,	
  it	
  is	
  of	
  little	
  
or	
  no	
  value	
  to	
  the	
  organization.	
  	
  
The	
  movement	
  from	
  creation	
  to	
  use	
  can	
  happen	
  quickly,	
  but	
  as	
  rule	
  2	
  points	
  out,	
  it	
  is	
  very	
  
often	
  displaced	
  in	
  time,	
  such	
  as	
  when	
  a	
  presentation	
  is	
  created,	
  but	
  not	
  delivered	
  
immediately.	
  
For	
  any	
  kind	
  of	
  serendipitous	
  event,	
  the	
  value	
  must	
  be	
  externally	
  determined	
  and	
  validated	
  
(rule	
  3).	
  The	
  process	
  of	
  presentation	
  or	
  the	
  sharing	
  of	
  a	
  data	
  set	
  delivery	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  a	
  
valuation,	
  but	
  simply	
  a	
  communication	
  of	
  desired	
  or	
  perceived	
  value	
  by	
  the	
  person	
  
• The	
  process	
  of	
  creaAon	
  is	
  disAnct	
  from	
  value	
  
realizaAon.	
  1	
  
• Value	
  realizaAon	
  is	
  displaced	
  in	
  Ame	
  from	
  the	
  act	
  that	
  
iniAated	
  the	
  value.	
  2	
  
• The	
  measure	
  of	
  value	
  requires	
  external	
  validaAon.	
  3	
  
• Value	
  is	
  not	
  fixed,	
  and	
  cannot	
  be	
  forecasted.	
  4	
  
• Looking	
  at	
  a	
  network	
  in	
  the	
  present	
  cannot	
  anAcipate	
  
either	
  its	
  potenAal	
  for	
  value	
  or	
  any	
  actual	
  value	
  it	
  may	
  
produce.	
  
5	
  
• Serendipity	
  may	
  enter	
  at	
  any	
  point	
  in	
  the	
  value	
  web,	
  
and	
  it	
  may	
  change	
  the	
  configuraAon	
  of	
  the	
  value	
  web	
  
at	
  any	
  Ame.	
  
6	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   4	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
delivering	
  it.	
  Once	
  it	
  has	
  been	
  delivered,	
  other	
  measurements	
  can	
  be	
  taken	
  to	
  determine	
  
what	
  value	
  the	
  activity	
  generated.	
  It	
  must	
  be	
  noted	
  that	
  this	
  value,	
  in	
  accordance	
  with	
  rule	
  
2,	
  may	
  not	
  be	
  immediate—serendipity	
  may	
  occur	
  much	
  later,	
  and	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  it	
  
becomes	
  so	
  hard	
  to	
  measure,	
  is	
  that	
  those	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  original	
  creation	
  may	
  no	
  longer	
  
be	
  paying	
  attention	
  or	
  may	
  even	
  be	
  reassigned	
  (see	
  rule	
  6).	
  
Rule	
  3	
  states	
  collaboration	
  software,	
  content,	
  data	
  sets	
  and	
  other	
  items	
  cannot,	
  when	
  first	
  
examined,	
  have	
  their	
  value	
  determined	
  because	
  they	
  have	
  not	
  generated	
  any	
  activity,	
  and	
  
no	
  one	
  knows	
  at	
  the	
  onset,	
  what	
  activity	
  they	
  will	
  generate.	
  
Rules	
  5	
  and	
  6	
  depart	
  slightly	
  from	
  the	
  intrinsic	
  value	
  of	
  content,	
  be	
  that	
  content	
  software,	
  
knowledge	
  or	
  data,	
  and	
  looks	
  at	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  serendipity,	
  namely	
  people	
  or	
  intelligent	
  
agents,	
  potentially	
  involved	
  in	
  serendipitous	
  activity.	
  As	
  with	
  content,	
  tools	
  and	
  data,	
  the	
  
examination	
  of	
  a	
  network	
  does	
  not	
  reveal	
  its	
  potential	
  value	
  (rule	
  5)	
  and	
  over	
  time,	
  as	
  that	
  
network	
  changes,	
  its	
  potential	
  for	
  value	
  also	
  changes	
  (rule	
  6.)	
  This	
  means	
  that	
  if	
  the	
  
network	
  changes	
  configuration,	
  for	
  instance,	
  content	
  not	
  deemed	
  of	
  value	
  at	
  one	
  time	
  may	
  
become	
  valuable	
  to	
  someone	
  in	
  the	
  new	
  network	
  configuration,	
  which	
  connects	
  back	
  to	
  
rule	
  2.	
  
The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Rules	
  and	
  This	
  Study	
  
Although	
  questions	
  were	
  asked	
  about	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  rules,	
  organizations,	
  if	
  they	
  captured	
  any	
  
kind	
  of	
  values	
  measurements	
  related	
  to	
  serendipity	
  at	
  all,	
  only	
  captured	
  those	
  related	
  to	
  
the	
  first	
  two,	
  with	
  an	
  implicit	
  confirmation	
  of	
  rule	
  4.	
  	
  
Rule	
  3	
  proved	
  a	
  key	
  impediment	
  to	
  capturing	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  value	
  in	
  this	
  study.	
  The	
  
lack	
  of	
  instrumentation	
  and	
  systematic	
  monitoring	
  of	
  collaboration	
  software	
  returns	
  over	
  
long	
  periods	
  of	
  time	
  is	
  not	
  routinely	
  conducted	
  at	
  any	
  of	
  the	
  companies	
  in	
  this	
  study.	
  
None	
  of	
  the	
  participants	
  in	
  this	
  study	
  reported	
  any	
  network	
  related	
  (rules	
  5	
  and	
  6)	
  
serendipitous	
  activity,	
  though	
  all	
  of	
  them	
  acknowledged	
  that	
  further	
  value	
  could	
  likely	
  be	
  
documented	
  with	
  the	
  inclusion	
  of	
  social	
  network	
  configuration	
  data.	
  
Design	
  and	
  Approach	
  
This	
  pilot	
  study	
  was	
  designed	
  to	
  gather	
  data	
  related	
  to	
  serendipitous	
  value	
  creation	
  
primarily	
  from	
  enterprise	
  social	
  networking.	
  	
  Five	
  Microsoft	
  customers	
  with	
  existing	
  
collaboration	
  environments	
  were	
  selected	
  for	
  the	
  study.	
  
The	
  survey	
  was	
  conducted	
  via	
  phone	
  interview	
  with	
  key	
  stakeholders	
  in	
  collaboration	
  or	
  
knowledge	
  management.	
  
Because	
  none	
  of	
  the	
  participants	
  in	
  the	
  survey	
  were	
  the	
  actual	
  actors	
  in	
  the	
  events,	
  
interviewing	
  became	
  much	
  more	
  of	
  a	
  probing	
  dialog	
  than	
  a	
  simple	
  interview	
  to	
  provide	
  
answers	
  to	
  the	
  questions	
  (see	
  the	
  appendix	
  for	
  the	
  questions).	
  	
  
Only	
  four	
  of	
  the	
  five	
  customers	
  were	
  able	
  to	
  document	
  results,	
  thus	
  the	
  data	
  refers	
  to	
  five	
  
companies	
  in	
  interviews,	
  but	
  only	
  reflects	
  the	
  data	
  from	
  four	
  companies.	
  
	
   	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   5	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
Findings	
  
Quantitative	
  Findings	
  
n Four	
  of	
  the	
  five	
  customers	
  reported	
  time-­‐to-­‐value	
  and	
  magnitude	
  data.	
  One	
  
customer	
  reported	
  that	
  they	
  had	
  just	
  implemented	
  and	
  had	
  not	
  yet	
  achieved	
  a	
  
result.	
  
n Results	
  averaged	
  $364,000	
  but	
  ranged	
  from	
  as	
  small	
  as	
  $20,000	
  to	
  as	
  high	
  as	
  
$1,000,000.	
  Chart	
  1	
  illustrates	
  this	
  with	
  bubbles	
  representing	
  the	
  magnitude	
  of	
  
value.	
  The	
  X	
  Axis	
  represents	
  time	
  to	
  value.	
  The	
  Y	
  Axis	
  represents	
  industry.	
  
n On	
  average,	
  collaboration	
  technology	
  took	
  slightly	
  more	
  than	
  three	
  months	
  to	
  
return	
  a	
  result.	
  Chart	
  2	
  illustrates	
  the	
  time	
  to	
  value	
  reported	
  by	
  the	
  four	
  companies	
  
in	
  the	
  study	
  that	
  reported	
  results.	
  	
  
	
  
Chart	
  1	
  
	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   6	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
	
  
Chart	
  2	
  
Additional	
  Findings	
  
n Customers	
  could	
  track	
  the	
  time-­‐to-­‐value	
  related	
  to	
  serendipitous	
  activity,	
  but	
  did	
  
not	
  routinely	
  do	
  so.	
  All	
  companies	
  had	
  to	
  reconstruct	
  cases	
  for	
  these	
  interviews.	
  
None	
  of	
  them	
  were	
  able	
  to	
  provide	
  the	
  original	
  actors	
  as	
  sources	
  during	
  the	
  
interviews.	
  
n All	
  of	
  the	
  customers	
  used	
  some	
  type	
  of	
  “hashtags”	
  as	
  metadata	
  to	
  track	
  value	
  
generating	
  collaborative	
  communications	
  (examples	
  for	
  Yammer	
  implementations	
  
included	
  “#yamwin,”	
  “#yamchamps,”	
  “#yammersolutions.”	
  
n Until	
  asked	
  in	
  this	
  survey,	
  only	
  one	
  of	
  five	
  customers	
  tracked	
  the	
  value	
  associated	
  
with	
  serendipitous	
  activity,	
  and	
  that	
  was	
  the	
  knowledge	
  management	
  group	
  within	
  
a	
  professional	
  services	
  firm.	
  
n None	
  of	
  the	
  companies	
  promised	
  returns	
  or	
  calculated	
  traditional	
  ROI	
  before	
  they	
  
deployed	
  enterprise	
  social	
  networking.	
  
n Three	
  of	
  the	
  five	
  interviewees	
  mentioned	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  enterprise	
  social	
  networking	
  
over	
  e-­‐mail	
  as	
  a	
  means	
  of	
  managing	
  internal	
  questions	
  and	
  answers.	
  Overall	
  
transparency	
  and	
  openness	
  of	
  profiles,	
  along	
  with	
  easy	
  access	
  to	
  previous	
  
conversations	
  were	
  stated	
  as	
  the	
  primary	
  value	
  drivers	
  for	
  reducing	
  time-­‐to-­‐
resolution	
  for	
  questions.	
  Resolutions	
  were	
  provided	
  both	
  by	
  existing	
  content	
  and	
  by	
  
experts	
  within	
  the	
  network.	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   7	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
It	
  is	
  clear	
  from	
  these	
  preliminary	
  results	
  that	
  organizations	
  understand	
  collaboration	
  
software	
  has	
  value,	
  but	
  that	
  its	
  value	
  is	
  difficult,	
  if	
  not	
  impossible,	
  to	
  determine	
  prior	
  to	
  
implementation.	
  It	
  is	
  also	
  clear,	
  however,	
  that	
  once	
  procurement	
  is	
  made,	
  most	
  companies	
  
do	
  not	
  implement	
  instrumentation	
  in	
  their	
  implementations	
  that	
  allow	
  them	
  to	
  determine	
  
the	
  actual	
  value	
  derived	
  from	
  their	
  collaboration	
  software	
  investments.	
  
When	
  value	
  is	
  captured,	
  such	
  as	
  time-­‐to-­‐resolution	
  for	
  questions,	
  that	
  count	
  of	
  activity	
  
doesn’t	
  go	
  far	
  enough	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  ultimate	
  value	
  of	
  interactions.	
  Time-­‐to-­‐resolution	
  is	
  
a	
  productivity	
  measure	
  that	
  essentially	
  documents	
  the	
  decrease	
  in	
  time	
  to	
  answer	
  a	
  
question.	
  What	
  it	
  does	
  not	
  capture	
  is	
  the	
  outcome	
  of	
  any	
  new	
  relationships	
  formed	
  
between	
  people	
  or	
  content	
  during	
  the	
  process,	
  that	
  may	
  or	
  may	
  not	
  lead	
  to	
  additional	
  
value.	
  The	
  collaboration	
  software	
  may	
  yield	
  enough	
  time-­‐to-­‐resolution	
  moments	
  to	
  justify	
  
continued	
  investment,	
  but	
  because	
  it	
  appears	
  useful	
  in	
  these	
  short	
  timeframes,	
  larger	
  value	
  
returns	
  are	
  never	
  accounted	
  for,	
  outside	
  of	
  anecdotal	
  stories.	
  	
  
This	
  failure	
  to	
  capture	
  higher	
  order	
  value	
  does	
  a	
  disservice	
  to	
  software	
  vendors	
  trying	
  to	
  
identify	
  value	
  propositions	
  for	
  potential	
  customers,	
  and	
  it	
  may	
  undermine	
  existing	
  
implementations	
  where	
  traditional	
  returns	
  don’t	
  exceed	
  the	
  costs	
  of	
  acquisition,	
  
maintenance	
  and	
  operation	
  of	
  the	
  collaboration	
  software.	
  The	
  failure	
  to	
  capture	
  this	
  
serendipitous	
  value	
  may	
  also	
  reduce	
  the	
  overall	
  perceived	
  value	
  of	
  collaboration	
  software	
  
within	
  companies	
  and	
  within	
  the	
  market,	
  although	
  anecdotal	
  stories	
  offer	
  a	
  stop	
  gap	
  
against	
  a	
  total	
  loss	
  of	
  perceived	
  value	
  from	
  serendipity.	
  
Company	
  Profiles	
  
The	
  companies	
  involved	
  in	
  this	
  study	
  permitted	
  data	
  gathering	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  anonymity.	
  	
  
They	
  represented	
  the	
  following	
  industries.	
  Relative	
  size	
  is	
  indicated	
  by	
  rounded	
  employee	
  
counts.	
  
n Software—Supply	
  chain	
  management	
  (2,500	
  employees)	
  
n Multinational	
  entertainment	
  company	
  (175,000	
  employees)	
  
n Multinational	
  consultancy	
  (175,000	
  employees)	
  
n Multinational	
  manufacturing	
  company	
  (18,000	
  &	
  29,000	
  employees)	
  
Serendipity	
  Stories	
  
The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantitative	
  Value	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  was	
  designed	
  to	
  understand	
  how	
  
and	
  where	
  to	
  place	
  instruments	
  within	
  collaborative	
  processes	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  ascertain	
  the	
  
value	
  of	
  activities	
  that	
  emerge	
  from	
  those	
  processes.	
  Stories	
  have	
  proven	
  the	
  primary	
  
historical	
  means	
  of	
  documenting	
  and	
  sharing	
  value.	
  Unfortunately,	
  stories	
  only	
  capture	
  
large,	
  intriguing	
  incidents,	
  often	
  missing	
  additional	
  activities	
  that	
  could	
  represent	
  
considerable	
  value	
  either	
  in	
  single	
  instances,	
  or	
  in	
  aggregate.	
  	
  
Given	
  that	
  the	
  interviewees	
  in	
  this	
  project	
  could	
  not	
  provide	
  value	
  in	
  most	
  instances,	
  the	
  
stories	
  can	
  provide	
  illustration	
  for	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  events.	
  It	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  keep	
  in	
  
mind	
  that	
  even	
  if	
  organizations	
  do	
  put	
  in	
  place	
  instruments	
  that	
  routinely	
  capture	
  
serendipitous	
  activity	
  and	
  its	
  value,	
  the	
  story	
  will	
  remain	
  a	
  qualitative	
  aspect	
  of	
  The	
  
Serendipity	
  Economy	
  that	
  provides	
  an	
  emotional	
  connection	
  to	
  the	
  possibility	
  of	
  value,	
  and	
  
in	
  documenting	
  the	
  specific	
  context	
  of	
  the	
  value.	
  Since	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  can	
  be	
  so	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   8	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
broad	
  and	
  far	
  ranging,	
  any	
  attempt	
  to	
  foster	
  a	
  repeat	
  of	
  any	
  given	
  instance,	
  if	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  
done	
  at	
  all,	
  would	
  require	
  the	
  context	
  in	
  order	
  for	
  that	
  to	
  occur.	
  
Here	
  is	
  one	
  positive	
  story	
  that	
  represents	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  serendipity.	
  
Proposal	
  development.	
  A	
  lead	
  consultant	
  in	
  the	
  Russian	
  office	
  of	
  a	
  major	
  global	
  
management	
  consulting	
  	
  firm	
  had	
  the	
  opportunity	
  to	
  respond	
  to	
  a	
  request	
  for	
  proposal	
  for	
  
a	
  large	
  bank	
  in	
  Eastern	
  Europe	
  shortly	
  after	
  the	
  implementation	
  of	
  an	
  enterprise	
  social	
  
networking	
  system.	
  She	
  did	
  not	
  have	
  the	
  expertise	
  to	
  craft	
  the	
  proposal.	
  She	
  went	
  to	
  what	
  
the	
  company	
  calls	
  a	
  “verified	
  group”	
  of	
  experts	
  that	
  were	
  approved	
  by	
  an	
  executive	
  
sponsor.	
  In	
  six	
  to	
  eight	
  weeks,	
  the	
  Russian	
  consultant	
  received	
  a	
  response	
  from	
  another	
  
consultant	
  in	
  Bahrain	
  who	
  possessed	
  the	
  necessary	
  knowledge.	
  He	
  also	
  offered	
  his	
  resume	
  
so	
  she	
  could	
  work	
  him	
  into	
  the	
  deal.	
  A	
  community	
  manager,	
  seeing	
  this	
  conversation	
  
thread,	
  jumped	
  in,	
  and	
  offered	
  a	
  link	
  to	
  existing	
  content	
  that	
  would	
  also	
  be	
  useful	
  in	
  
responding	
  to	
  the	
  proposal.	
  Although	
  this	
  conversation	
  initiated	
  within	
  an	
  enterprise	
  social	
  
networking	
  environment,	
  it	
  also	
  used	
  several	
  other	
  means	
  of	
  communication,	
  but	
  none	
  of	
  
this	
  would	
  have	
  happened	
  had	
  the	
  consultant	
  from	
  Bahrain,	
  who	
  was	
  unknown	
  to	
  the	
  
person	
  in	
  Russia,	
  responded	
  to	
  the	
  original	
  post	
  for	
  assistance.	
  The	
  company	
  was	
  able	
  to	
  
accommodate	
  a	
  cross-­‐organizational	
  loan	
  so	
  that	
  the	
  consultant	
  in	
  Bahrain	
  could	
  work	
  
with	
  the	
  consultant	
  in	
  France.	
  They	
  won	
  the	
  contract.	
  The	
  time-­‐to-­‐value	
  was	
  about	
  six	
  
weeks	
  (1.2	
  months,)	
  and	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  the	
  return	
  was	
  slightly	
  more	
  than	
  $1M	
  USD	
  in	
  
contracted	
  services.	
  
Examined	
  through	
  the	
  lens	
  of	
  productivity,	
  the	
  reduction	
  in	
  communications	
  costs,	
  even	
  if	
  
the	
  original	
  consultant	
  had	
  to	
  spend	
  several	
  hours	
  searching	
  for	
  the	
  person	
  from	
  Bahrain,	
  
might	
  not	
  have	
  yielded	
  a	
  team	
  or	
  the	
  knowledge	
  required	
  to	
  respond	
  to	
  the	
  request	
  for	
  
proposal.	
  It	
  is	
  highly	
  unlikely	
  that	
  the	
  consultants	
  would	
  have	
  connected	
  with	
  the	
  
enterprise	
  social	
  networking	
  environment,	
  and	
  even	
  if	
  they	
  did,	
  that	
  search	
  and	
  subsequent	
  
connection	
  would	
  itself	
  represent	
  serendipitous	
  activity.	
  Whatever	
  content	
  pointed	
  the	
  
Russian	
  consultant	
  to	
  the	
  colleague	
  in	
  Bahrain	
  would	
  have	
  been	
  created	
  and	
  posted	
  for	
  
some	
  other	
  purpose	
  than	
  this	
  proposal.	
  
Failure	
  to	
  gather	
  metrics.	
  Sometimes	
  negative	
  cases	
  make	
  the	
  point.	
  The	
  entertainment	
  
company	
  in	
  this	
  study	
  reported	
  that	
  they	
  wanted	
  to	
  acquire	
  an	
  enterprise	
  social	
  
networking	
  analytics	
  tool,	
  but	
  were	
  facing	
  pushback	
  because	
  they	
  were	
  unable	
  to	
  
demonstrate	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  existing	
  social	
  networking	
  investments.	
  The	
  interviewee	
  
commented:	
  “It	
  looks	
  like	
  we	
  should	
  have	
  had	
  this	
  conversation	
  before	
  we	
  asked	
  for	
  the	
  
analytics	
  software.”	
  
Recommendations	
  and	
  Conclusions	
  
Customers	
  
n Buyers	
  of	
  enterprise	
  social	
  networking	
  and	
  collaboration	
  technology	
  who	
  want	
  to	
  
encourage	
  the	
  highest	
  use	
  of	
  collaboration	
  software,	
  need	
  to	
  focus	
  on	
  all	
  of	
  its	
  
positive	
  values,	
  including	
  productivity	
  gains	
  and	
  serendipitous	
  activity.	
  
n Use	
  hashtags	
  or	
  other	
  metadata	
  to	
  capture	
  initial	
  instances	
  of	
  serendipitous	
  activity.	
  	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   9	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
n The	
  documentation	
  of	
  serendipity	
  must	
  be	
  captured	
  with	
  immediacy	
  and	
  detail,	
  and	
  
include	
  those	
  directly	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  case.	
  If	
  the	
  incident	
  has	
  not	
  reached	
  its	
  
conclusion,	
  the	
  organization	
  should	
  purposefully	
  monitor	
  the	
  evolution	
  of	
  the	
  event.	
  	
  
n Organizations	
  who	
  want	
  to	
  effectively	
  capture	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  benefits	
  need	
  
to	
  create	
  cross-­‐functional	
  teams	
  that	
  actively	
  monitor	
  projects	
  and	
  mentor	
  people	
  in	
  
serendipity	
  identification	
  and	
  documentation.	
  	
  
Follow-­‐on	
  Research	
  
The	
  quantification	
  of	
  serendipitous	
  economic	
  activity	
  within	
  organizations	
  requires	
  a	
  
study	
  of	
  considerable	
  duration	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  monitor	
  the	
  eventual	
  outcome	
  of	
  a	
  
serendipity	
  event	
  rather	
  than	
  its	
  more	
  immediate	
  consequences.	
  	
  Such	
  a	
  study	
  should	
  
include	
  the	
  following	
  characteristics:	
  
n Identify	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  immediately.	
  
n Capture	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  those	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  serendipitous	
  activity,	
  including	
  some	
  
historical	
  information	
  (an	
  include	
  how	
  long	
  the	
  actors	
  have	
  been	
  in	
  role,	
  and	
  hire	
  
date	
  –	
  and	
  if	
  content	
  oriented,	
  when	
  the	
  content	
  was	
  created,	
  posted	
  and	
  last	
  
updated	
  or	
  interacted	
  with).	
  
n Set	
  regular	
  touch-­‐points	
  with	
  those	
  involved	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  document	
  how	
  the	
  
serendipitous	
  event	
  value	
  evolves	
  over	
  time.	
  
n Conduct	
  this	
  research	
  at	
  five	
  to	
  ten	
  companies	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  document	
  variations	
  
among	
  industries	
  and	
  organizational	
  types.	
  
Conclusion	
  
Conducting	
  this	
  study	
  was	
  essentially	
  an	
  exercise	
  in	
  digital	
  forensics.	
  Because	
  
organizations	
  did	
  not	
  routinely	
  or	
  systematically	
  capture	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  serendipitous	
  
activity,	
  cases	
  needed	
  to	
  be	
  reconstructed	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  rediscover	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  elements	
  that	
  
lead	
  to	
  value.	
  In	
  many	
  cases,	
  the	
  details	
  were	
  not	
  able	
  to	
  be	
  recovered	
  by	
  the	
  person	
  being	
  
interviewed,	
  though	
  records	
  about	
  content	
  dates,	
  posting	
  and	
  reading,	
  along	
  with	
  
organization	
  records,	
  such	
  as	
  hire	
  date	
  and	
  organization	
  affiliation,	
  do	
  exist.	
  	
  
This	
  study	
  suggests	
  that	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  does	
  occur	
  and	
  that	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  captured.	
  It	
  
also	
  suggests	
  that	
  further	
  work	
  on	
  integrating	
  analytics	
  into	
  collaborative	
  environments	
  
will	
  be	
  required	
  to	
  move	
  away	
  from	
  the	
  manual	
  collection	
  and	
  documentation	
  of	
  
serendipitous	
  activity.	
  
	
   	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   10	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
Appendix:	
  Initial	
  Questions	
  for	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Survey	
  
Event	
  Questions	
  
n When	
  did	
  the	
  initial	
  event	
  take	
  place?	
  
n Describe	
  the	
  event?	
  
(An	
  event	
  is	
  defined	
  as	
  any	
  serendipitous	
  activity	
  that	
  resulted	
  in	
  value	
  generation.	
  
Questions	
  are	
  designed	
  to	
  document	
  discrete	
  events).	
  
Organizational	
  Questions	
  
n How	
  many	
  people	
  were	
  involved	
  in	
  this	
  event?	
  
n Did	
  everybody	
  know	
  each	
  other	
  before	
  this	
  event?	
  
o If	
  not,	
  how	
  many	
  people	
  represented	
  new	
  relationships?	
  
o Did	
  the	
  people	
  new	
  to	
  the	
  relationship	
  contribute	
  more	
  or	
  less	
  than	
  the	
  
members	
  with	
  the	
  existing	
  relationship	
  to	
  driving	
  the	
  event	
  to	
  realize	
  
value?	
  
n How	
  long	
  have	
  the	
  people	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  event	
  been	
  in	
  their	
  current	
  role?	
  
o Did	
  a	
  change	
  in	
  role	
  have	
  any	
  influence	
  on	
  the	
  event	
  taking	
  place?	
  
n How	
  long	
  has	
  each	
  person	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  event	
  been	
  employed	
  by	
  the	
  
company?	
  
n Were	
  any	
  of	
  the	
  people	
  associated	
  with	
  this	
  event	
  contractors	
  or	
  contingent	
  
staff?	
  
n Did	
  your	
  organization	
  record	
  or	
  create	
  any	
  documentation	
  related	
  to	
  this	
  event?	
  
Technology	
  Questions	
  
n What	
  technology	
  platforms	
  contributed	
  to	
  this	
  event?	
  
n Did	
  the	
  technology	
  platform	
  have	
  a	
  return	
  on	
  investment	
  (ROI)	
  associated	
  with	
  it	
  
upon	
  purchase?	
  
n When	
  was	
  the	
  platform	
  acquired?	
  
n How	
  much	
  was	
  the	
  initial	
  investment?	
  Annual	
  costs?	
  
Content	
  Questions	
  
n How	
  long	
  was	
  the	
  content	
  available	
  before	
  it	
  was	
  discovered	
  or	
  reacted	
  to?	
  
n Which	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  best	
  describes	
  the	
  content:	
  
q Document	
  in	
  repository	
  
q Post	
  on	
  social	
  network	
  
q E-­‐mail	
  
q Face-­‐to-­‐face	
  conversation	
  
n How	
  did	
  you	
  find	
  the	
  content?	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   11	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
q Social	
  stream?	
  
q Post	
  in	
  a	
  team	
  portal?	
  
q Post	
  in	
  an	
  enterprise	
  portal?	
  
q Search?	
  
q E-­‐mail	
  with	
  a	
  link?	
  
Value	
  Questions	
  
n When	
  did	
  the	
  initial	
  value	
  occur?	
  
n What	
  was	
  the	
  initial	
  value	
  attributed	
  to	
  the	
  event?	
  
n What	
  was	
  the	
  first	
  economic	
  value	
  derived	
  from	
  the	
  event?	
  
n How	
  was	
  the	
  value	
  determined?	
  
n Have	
  you	
  recorded	
  subsequent	
  or	
  ongoing	
  value,	
  savings	
  or	
  revenue	
  related	
  to	
  
the	
  event?	
  
o If	
  so,	
  what	
  value	
  have	
  you	
  derived	
  to	
  date?	
  
n What	
  was	
  the	
  outcome:	
  
q Improved	
  process?	
  
q Reduced	
  cost?	
  
q New	
  product/revenue?	
  
q New	
  business	
  model?	
  
q Acquisition	
  or	
  merger?	
  
q Other?	
  
Demographics	
  
n What	
  industry	
  is	
  your	
  company	
  associated	
  with?	
  
n How	
  many	
  employees?	
  
n Company	
  size?	
  
n Location/locations	
  where	
  event	
  took	
  place?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
  The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  Quantification	
  Study	
  Pilot	
  Project	
  Report	
  	
   12	
  
	
  
©	
  2014	
  Serious	
  Insights	
  LLC	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   seriousinsights.net	
  
Appendix	
  2:	
  Additional	
  Reading	
  
	
  
Fast	
  Company	
  
The	
  Serendipity	
  Economy:	
  How	
  Spontaneity	
  Plus	
  Social	
  Networking	
  Drives	
  Innovation	
  
http://www.fastcompany.com/3015886/leadership-­‐now/the-­‐serendipity-­‐
economy-­‐how-­‐spontaneity-­‐plus-­‐social-­‐networking-­‐drives-­‐innovat	
  
	
  
	
  
Harvard	
  Business	
  Review	
  
How	
  IT	
  Professionals	
  Can	
  Embrace	
  the	
  Serendipity	
  Economy	
  
http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/08/how-­‐it-­‐professionals-­‐can-­‐embrace-­‐the-­‐serendipity/	
  
	
  
Daniel	
  W.	
  Rasmus	
  
Daniel	
  W.	
  Rasmus,	
  the	
  author	
  of	
  Listening	
  to	
  the	
  Future	
  and	
  
Management	
  by	
  Design,	
  is	
  a	
  strategist	
  and	
  industry	
  analyst	
  who	
  helps	
  
clients	
  put	
  their	
  future	
  in	
  context.	
  Rasmus	
  uses	
  scenarios	
  to	
  analyze	
  
trends	
  in	
  society,	
  technology,	
  economics	
  and	
  politics	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  
discover	
  implications	
  used	
  to	
  develop	
  and	
  refine	
  products,	
  services	
  
and	
  experiences.	
  
In	
  Management	
  by	
  Design	
  Rasmus	
  proposes	
  an	
  innovative	
  new	
  
methodology	
  for	
  work	
  experience	
  design.	
  Rasmus’s	
  thoughts	
  about	
  
the	
  future	
  of	
  work	
  have	
  appeared	
  recently	
  in	
  African	
  Business	
  Review,	
  
Chief	
  Learning	
  Officer	
  Magazine,	
  Fast	
  Company,	
  Talent	
  Management,	
  
KMWorld,	
  iPhone	
  Life,	
  PopMatters	
  and	
  on	
  the	
  Harvard	
  Business	
  
Review	
  blog.	
  	
  Rasmus	
  is	
  an	
  internationally	
  recognized	
  speaker.	
  He	
  has	
  
addressed	
  audiences	
  at	
  Enterprise	
  2.0,	
  CeBIT,	
  KMWorld,	
  Educause,	
  Future	
  Trends	
  and	
  many	
  other	
  
conferences.	
  
Prior	
  to	
  starting	
  his	
  own	
  consulting	
  practice,	
  Rasmus	
  was	
  the	
  Director	
  of	
  Business	
  Insights	
  at	
  Microsoft,	
  
where	
  he	
  helped	
  the	
  company	
  envision	
  how	
  people	
  will	
  work	
  in	
  the	
  future.	
  	
  Rasmus	
  was	
  the	
  creative	
  
leader	
  for	
  Microsoft’s	
  Center	
  for	
  Information	
  Work.	
  Before	
  joining	
  Microsoft,	
  Rasmus	
  was	
  a	
  Vice	
  President	
  
and	
  Research	
  Director	
  at	
  Forrester	
  Research.	
  
Rasmus	
  attended	
  the	
  University	
  of	
  California	
  at	
  Santa	
  Cruz	
  and	
  received	
  a	
  certificate	
  in	
  intelligent	
  systems	
  
engineering	
  from	
  the	
  University	
  of	
  California	
  at	
  Irvine.	
  He	
  is	
  the	
  former	
  Visiting	
  Liberal	
  Arts	
  Fellow	
  at	
  
Bellevue	
  College	
  in	
  Bellevue,	
  WA.	
  Rasmus	
  is	
  currently	
  a	
  member	
  of	
  the	
  Faculty	
  Academy	
  at	
  Pinchot	
  
University	
  in	
  Seattle	
  WA.	
  

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The serendipity economy

  • 1.     The  Serendipity  Economy   Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report       Written  by  Daniel  W.  Rasmus   Managing  Director  and  Principal  Analyst   Serious  Insights  LLC     This  research  was  sponsored  by:    
  • 2.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     2     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   Executive  Summary   This  paper  reports  the  results  of  a  pilot  research  project  focused  on  the  quantification  value   derived  when  serendipitous  activity  arises  within  collaborative  systems.  Four  out  of  the   five  interviews  reported  value  from  their  collaboration  and  enterprise  social  investments,   though  most  did  not  capture  the  actual  value  that  resulted  from  that  activity.    The  one   company  that  did  not  report  was  too  new  to  the  implementation.   On  average,  collaboration  technology  took  slightly  more  than  three  months  to  return  a   measureable  serendipitous  result.  Financial  results  related  to  the  serendipitous  use  of   collaboration  technology  averaged  $364,000,  but  ranged  from  as  small  as  $20,000  to  high   as  $1,000,000.   Overview  of  The  Serendipity  Economy   The  Serendipity  Economy  concept  was  created  to  account  for  value  that  extends  beyond   that  achieved  by  productivity  gains.  The  Serendipity  Economy  focuses  primarily  on  the   value  derived  from  horizontal  technology,  in  particular,  communications  and  collaboration   technology,  though  it  can  be  applied  to  marketing  communications,  education  and  other   fields.   The  idea  of  The  Serendipity  Economy  originated  from  analyst  work  on  return-­‐on-­‐ investment  for  instant  messaging  applications.  In  certain  circumstances,  like  call  centers,  if   instant  messaging  was  used  for  a  specific  purpose,  for  instance,  to  allow  call  center   operators  to  more  quickly  reach  engineers,  a  return  on  investment  calculation  could  be   guesstimated  around  first-­‐time  call  resolution,  solution  quality  and  customer  satisfaction.   When  instant  messaging,  however,  was  deployed  widely  as  a  horizontal  communications   technology,  it  became  impossible  to  forecast  all  of  the  use  cases  ahead  of  the  deployment,   and  when  examining  such  use  cases  historically,  many  of  them  represented  serendipitous   activity.  In  other  words,  without  the  software,  the  actors  in  the  event  did  not  know  what  to   expect,  if  anything,  when  they  started  their  dialog.     The  other  recurring  issue  that  drove  the  development  of  The  Serendipity  Economy   framework  was  the  overuse  of  industrial  age  measures,  in  particular,  productivity,  as  the   primary  means  of  attributing  value  to  collaboration  software  investments.  Where  it  is  true   that  collaboration  reduces  the  time  and  effort  required  to  communicate  or  create,  the   simple  reduction  in  communication  or  creation  time  cannot  account  for  all  the  returns   associated  with  collaboration  software.  Even  more  of  an  issue,  the  act  of  looking  for   productivity  gain  among  individuals,  functions  and  organizations  at  small  time  scales   causes  investigators  to  miss  the  serendipitous  events  that  occur  over  larger,  unmonitored,   time  scales.   The  use  of  industrial  age  measures  shortchanges  the  value  of  collaboration  software   investments.  Even  if  the  value  of  a  collaboration  software  investment  can  be  determined  to   be  greater  than  its  acquisition  cost  based  on  productivity  gains,  the  failure  to  capture  the   value  of  serendipitous  activity  greatly  reduces  visibility  of  the  actual  value  derived  from  the   purchase.  This  “missing  value”  is  often  accounted  for  in  a  few  anecdotal  stories.  The   questions  created  for  this  study  can  be  used  by  organizations  to  more  systematically  
  • 3.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     3     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   instrument  the  gathering  of  “extra-­‐productive”  value  derived  from  their  collaboration   software  investments.     Because  so  many  organizations  are  still  struggling  with  high-­‐level  implementations  of  their   collaborative  software  environments,  understanding  this  value  could  be  critical  in   prioritizing  investments  in  awareness,  adoption  and  use  that  would  increase  the  returns   from  underutilized  software.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Rules   After  many  years  of  monitoring  collaboration  and  knowledge  management   implementations  and  examining  serendipitous  activity,  the  following  six  rules  emerged:     Value  from  The  Serendipity  Economy  arises  from  multiple  points.  In  rule  number  1,   serendipity  arises  from  the  process  of  creating  or  documenting  knowledge,  or  from  the   interpretation  of  data  and  its  transformation  into  information.  Regardless  of  how   productive  the  person  who  creates  or  transforms  data,  until  that  data  is  used,  it  is  of  little   or  no  value  to  the  organization.     The  movement  from  creation  to  use  can  happen  quickly,  but  as  rule  2  points  out,  it  is  very   often  displaced  in  time,  such  as  when  a  presentation  is  created,  but  not  delivered   immediately.   For  any  kind  of  serendipitous  event,  the  value  must  be  externally  determined  and  validated   (rule  3).  The  process  of  presentation  or  the  sharing  of  a  data  set  delivery  does  not  include  a   valuation,  but  simply  a  communication  of  desired  or  perceived  value  by  the  person   • The  process  of  creaAon  is  disAnct  from  value   realizaAon.  1   • Value  realizaAon  is  displaced  in  Ame  from  the  act  that   iniAated  the  value.  2   • The  measure  of  value  requires  external  validaAon.  3   • Value  is  not  fixed,  and  cannot  be  forecasted.  4   • Looking  at  a  network  in  the  present  cannot  anAcipate   either  its  potenAal  for  value  or  any  actual  value  it  may   produce.   5   • Serendipity  may  enter  at  any  point  in  the  value  web,   and  it  may  change  the  configuraAon  of  the  value  web   at  any  Ame.   6  
  • 4.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     4     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   delivering  it.  Once  it  has  been  delivered,  other  measurements  can  be  taken  to  determine   what  value  the  activity  generated.  It  must  be  noted  that  this  value,  in  accordance  with  rule   2,  may  not  be  immediate—serendipity  may  occur  much  later,  and  one  of  the  reasons  it   becomes  so  hard  to  measure,  is  that  those  involved  in  the  original  creation  may  no  longer   be  paying  attention  or  may  even  be  reassigned  (see  rule  6).   Rule  3  states  collaboration  software,  content,  data  sets  and  other  items  cannot,  when  first   examined,  have  their  value  determined  because  they  have  not  generated  any  activity,  and   no  one  knows  at  the  onset,  what  activity  they  will  generate.   Rules  5  and  6  depart  slightly  from  the  intrinsic  value  of  content,  be  that  content  software,   knowledge  or  data,  and  looks  at  the  context  of  serendipity,  namely  people  or  intelligent   agents,  potentially  involved  in  serendipitous  activity.  As  with  content,  tools  and  data,  the   examination  of  a  network  does  not  reveal  its  potential  value  (rule  5)  and  over  time,  as  that   network  changes,  its  potential  for  value  also  changes  (rule  6.)  This  means  that  if  the   network  changes  configuration,  for  instance,  content  not  deemed  of  value  at  one  time  may   become  valuable  to  someone  in  the  new  network  configuration,  which  connects  back  to   rule  2.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Rules  and  This  Study   Although  questions  were  asked  about  each  of  the  rules,  organizations,  if  they  captured  any   kind  of  values  measurements  related  to  serendipity  at  all,  only  captured  those  related  to   the  first  two,  with  an  implicit  confirmation  of  rule  4.     Rule  3  proved  a  key  impediment  to  capturing  Serendipity  Economy  value  in  this  study.  The   lack  of  instrumentation  and  systematic  monitoring  of  collaboration  software  returns  over   long  periods  of  time  is  not  routinely  conducted  at  any  of  the  companies  in  this  study.   None  of  the  participants  in  this  study  reported  any  network  related  (rules  5  and  6)   serendipitous  activity,  though  all  of  them  acknowledged  that  further  value  could  likely  be   documented  with  the  inclusion  of  social  network  configuration  data.   Design  and  Approach   This  pilot  study  was  designed  to  gather  data  related  to  serendipitous  value  creation   primarily  from  enterprise  social  networking.    Five  Microsoft  customers  with  existing   collaboration  environments  were  selected  for  the  study.   The  survey  was  conducted  via  phone  interview  with  key  stakeholders  in  collaboration  or   knowledge  management.   Because  none  of  the  participants  in  the  survey  were  the  actual  actors  in  the  events,   interviewing  became  much  more  of  a  probing  dialog  than  a  simple  interview  to  provide   answers  to  the  questions  (see  the  appendix  for  the  questions).     Only  four  of  the  five  customers  were  able  to  document  results,  thus  the  data  refers  to  five   companies  in  interviews,  but  only  reflects  the  data  from  four  companies.      
  • 5.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     5     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   Findings   Quantitative  Findings   n Four  of  the  five  customers  reported  time-­‐to-­‐value  and  magnitude  data.  One   customer  reported  that  they  had  just  implemented  and  had  not  yet  achieved  a   result.   n Results  averaged  $364,000  but  ranged  from  as  small  as  $20,000  to  as  high  as   $1,000,000.  Chart  1  illustrates  this  with  bubbles  representing  the  magnitude  of   value.  The  X  Axis  represents  time  to  value.  The  Y  Axis  represents  industry.   n On  average,  collaboration  technology  took  slightly  more  than  three  months  to   return  a  result.  Chart  2  illustrates  the  time  to  value  reported  by  the  four  companies   in  the  study  that  reported  results.       Chart  1    
  • 6.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     6     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net     Chart  2   Additional  Findings   n Customers  could  track  the  time-­‐to-­‐value  related  to  serendipitous  activity,  but  did   not  routinely  do  so.  All  companies  had  to  reconstruct  cases  for  these  interviews.   None  of  them  were  able  to  provide  the  original  actors  as  sources  during  the   interviews.   n All  of  the  customers  used  some  type  of  “hashtags”  as  metadata  to  track  value   generating  collaborative  communications  (examples  for  Yammer  implementations   included  “#yamwin,”  “#yamchamps,”  “#yammersolutions.”   n Until  asked  in  this  survey,  only  one  of  five  customers  tracked  the  value  associated   with  serendipitous  activity,  and  that  was  the  knowledge  management  group  within   a  professional  services  firm.   n None  of  the  companies  promised  returns  or  calculated  traditional  ROI  before  they   deployed  enterprise  social  networking.   n Three  of  the  five  interviewees  mentioned  the  value  of  enterprise  social  networking   over  e-­‐mail  as  a  means  of  managing  internal  questions  and  answers.  Overall   transparency  and  openness  of  profiles,  along  with  easy  access  to  previous   conversations  were  stated  as  the  primary  value  drivers  for  reducing  time-­‐to-­‐ resolution  for  questions.  Resolutions  were  provided  both  by  existing  content  and  by   experts  within  the  network.  
  • 7.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     7     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   It  is  clear  from  these  preliminary  results  that  organizations  understand  collaboration   software  has  value,  but  that  its  value  is  difficult,  if  not  impossible,  to  determine  prior  to   implementation.  It  is  also  clear,  however,  that  once  procurement  is  made,  most  companies   do  not  implement  instrumentation  in  their  implementations  that  allow  them  to  determine   the  actual  value  derived  from  their  collaboration  software  investments.   When  value  is  captured,  such  as  time-­‐to-­‐resolution  for  questions,  that  count  of  activity   doesn’t  go  far  enough  to  determine  the  ultimate  value  of  interactions.  Time-­‐to-­‐resolution  is   a  productivity  measure  that  essentially  documents  the  decrease  in  time  to  answer  a   question.  What  it  does  not  capture  is  the  outcome  of  any  new  relationships  formed   between  people  or  content  during  the  process,  that  may  or  may  not  lead  to  additional   value.  The  collaboration  software  may  yield  enough  time-­‐to-­‐resolution  moments  to  justify   continued  investment,  but  because  it  appears  useful  in  these  short  timeframes,  larger  value   returns  are  never  accounted  for,  outside  of  anecdotal  stories.     This  failure  to  capture  higher  order  value  does  a  disservice  to  software  vendors  trying  to   identify  value  propositions  for  potential  customers,  and  it  may  undermine  existing   implementations  where  traditional  returns  don’t  exceed  the  costs  of  acquisition,   maintenance  and  operation  of  the  collaboration  software.  The  failure  to  capture  this   serendipitous  value  may  also  reduce  the  overall  perceived  value  of  collaboration  software   within  companies  and  within  the  market,  although  anecdotal  stories  offer  a  stop  gap   against  a  total  loss  of  perceived  value  from  serendipity.   Company  Profiles   The  companies  involved  in  this  study  permitted  data  gathering  on  the  basis  anonymity.     They  represented  the  following  industries.  Relative  size  is  indicated  by  rounded  employee   counts.   n Software—Supply  chain  management  (2,500  employees)   n Multinational  entertainment  company  (175,000  employees)   n Multinational  consultancy  (175,000  employees)   n Multinational  manufacturing  company  (18,000  &  29,000  employees)   Serendipity  Stories   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantitative  Value  Pilot  Project  was  designed  to  understand  how   and  where  to  place  instruments  within  collaborative  processes  in  order  to  ascertain  the   value  of  activities  that  emerge  from  those  processes.  Stories  have  proven  the  primary   historical  means  of  documenting  and  sharing  value.  Unfortunately,  stories  only  capture   large,  intriguing  incidents,  often  missing  additional  activities  that  could  represent   considerable  value  either  in  single  instances,  or  in  aggregate.     Given  that  the  interviewees  in  this  project  could  not  provide  value  in  most  instances,  the   stories  can  provide  illustration  for  Serendipity  Economy  events.  It  is  important  to  keep  in   mind  that  even  if  organizations  do  put  in  place  instruments  that  routinely  capture   serendipitous  activity  and  its  value,  the  story  will  remain  a  qualitative  aspect  of  The   Serendipity  Economy  that  provides  an  emotional  connection  to  the  possibility  of  value,  and   in  documenting  the  specific  context  of  the  value.  Since  serendipitous  activity  can  be  so  
  • 8.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     8     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   broad  and  far  ranging,  any  attempt  to  foster  a  repeat  of  any  given  instance,  if  that  can  be   done  at  all,  would  require  the  context  in  order  for  that  to  occur.   Here  is  one  positive  story  that  represents  the  idea  of  serendipity.   Proposal  development.  A  lead  consultant  in  the  Russian  office  of  a  major  global   management  consulting    firm  had  the  opportunity  to  respond  to  a  request  for  proposal  for   a  large  bank  in  Eastern  Europe  shortly  after  the  implementation  of  an  enterprise  social   networking  system.  She  did  not  have  the  expertise  to  craft  the  proposal.  She  went  to  what   the  company  calls  a  “verified  group”  of  experts  that  were  approved  by  an  executive   sponsor.  In  six  to  eight  weeks,  the  Russian  consultant  received  a  response  from  another   consultant  in  Bahrain  who  possessed  the  necessary  knowledge.  He  also  offered  his  resume   so  she  could  work  him  into  the  deal.  A  community  manager,  seeing  this  conversation   thread,  jumped  in,  and  offered  a  link  to  existing  content  that  would  also  be  useful  in   responding  to  the  proposal.  Although  this  conversation  initiated  within  an  enterprise  social   networking  environment,  it  also  used  several  other  means  of  communication,  but  none  of   this  would  have  happened  had  the  consultant  from  Bahrain,  who  was  unknown  to  the   person  in  Russia,  responded  to  the  original  post  for  assistance.  The  company  was  able  to   accommodate  a  cross-­‐organizational  loan  so  that  the  consultant  in  Bahrain  could  work   with  the  consultant  in  France.  They  won  the  contract.  The  time-­‐to-­‐value  was  about  six   weeks  (1.2  months,)  and  the  value  of  the  return  was  slightly  more  than  $1M  USD  in   contracted  services.   Examined  through  the  lens  of  productivity,  the  reduction  in  communications  costs,  even  if   the  original  consultant  had  to  spend  several  hours  searching  for  the  person  from  Bahrain,   might  not  have  yielded  a  team  or  the  knowledge  required  to  respond  to  the  request  for   proposal.  It  is  highly  unlikely  that  the  consultants  would  have  connected  with  the   enterprise  social  networking  environment,  and  even  if  they  did,  that  search  and  subsequent   connection  would  itself  represent  serendipitous  activity.  Whatever  content  pointed  the   Russian  consultant  to  the  colleague  in  Bahrain  would  have  been  created  and  posted  for   some  other  purpose  than  this  proposal.   Failure  to  gather  metrics.  Sometimes  negative  cases  make  the  point.  The  entertainment   company  in  this  study  reported  that  they  wanted  to  acquire  an  enterprise  social   networking  analytics  tool,  but  were  facing  pushback  because  they  were  unable  to   demonstrate  the  value  of  existing  social  networking  investments.  The  interviewee   commented:  “It  looks  like  we  should  have  had  this  conversation  before  we  asked  for  the   analytics  software.”   Recommendations  and  Conclusions   Customers   n Buyers  of  enterprise  social  networking  and  collaboration  technology  who  want  to   encourage  the  highest  use  of  collaboration  software,  need  to  focus  on  all  of  its   positive  values,  including  productivity  gains  and  serendipitous  activity.   n Use  hashtags  or  other  metadata  to  capture  initial  instances  of  serendipitous  activity.    
  • 9.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     9     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   n The  documentation  of  serendipity  must  be  captured  with  immediacy  and  detail,  and   include  those  directly  involved  in  the  case.  If  the  incident  has  not  reached  its   conclusion,  the  organization  should  purposefully  monitor  the  evolution  of  the  event.     n Organizations  who  want  to  effectively  capture  Serendipity  Economy  benefits  need   to  create  cross-­‐functional  teams  that  actively  monitor  projects  and  mentor  people  in   serendipity  identification  and  documentation.     Follow-­‐on  Research   The  quantification  of  serendipitous  economic  activity  within  organizations  requires  a   study  of  considerable  duration  in  order  to  monitor  the  eventual  outcome  of  a   serendipity  event  rather  than  its  more  immediate  consequences.    Such  a  study  should   include  the  following  characteristics:   n Identify  serendipitous  activity  immediately.   n Capture  the  state  of  those  involved  in  the  serendipitous  activity,  including  some   historical  information  (an  include  how  long  the  actors  have  been  in  role,  and  hire   date  –  and  if  content  oriented,  when  the  content  was  created,  posted  and  last   updated  or  interacted  with).   n Set  regular  touch-­‐points  with  those  involved  in  order  to  document  how  the   serendipitous  event  value  evolves  over  time.   n Conduct  this  research  at  five  to  ten  companies  in  order  to  document  variations   among  industries  and  organizational  types.   Conclusion   Conducting  this  study  was  essentially  an  exercise  in  digital  forensics.  Because   organizations  did  not  routinely  or  systematically  capture  the  value  of  serendipitous   activity,  cases  needed  to  be  reconstructed  in  order  to  rediscover  all  of  the  elements  that   lead  to  value.  In  many  cases,  the  details  were  not  able  to  be  recovered  by  the  person  being   interviewed,  though  records  about  content  dates,  posting  and  reading,  along  with   organization  records,  such  as  hire  date  and  organization  affiliation,  do  exist.     This  study  suggests  that  serendipitous  activity  does  occur  and  that  it  can  be  captured.  It   also  suggests  that  further  work  on  integrating  analytics  into  collaborative  environments   will  be  required  to  move  away  from  the  manual  collection  and  documentation  of   serendipitous  activity.      
  • 10.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     10     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   Appendix:  Initial  Questions  for  Serendipity  Economy  Survey   Event  Questions   n When  did  the  initial  event  take  place?   n Describe  the  event?   (An  event  is  defined  as  any  serendipitous  activity  that  resulted  in  value  generation.   Questions  are  designed  to  document  discrete  events).   Organizational  Questions   n How  many  people  were  involved  in  this  event?   n Did  everybody  know  each  other  before  this  event?   o If  not,  how  many  people  represented  new  relationships?   o Did  the  people  new  to  the  relationship  contribute  more  or  less  than  the   members  with  the  existing  relationship  to  driving  the  event  to  realize   value?   n How  long  have  the  people  involved  in  the  event  been  in  their  current  role?   o Did  a  change  in  role  have  any  influence  on  the  event  taking  place?   n How  long  has  each  person  involved  in  the  event  been  employed  by  the   company?   n Were  any  of  the  people  associated  with  this  event  contractors  or  contingent   staff?   n Did  your  organization  record  or  create  any  documentation  related  to  this  event?   Technology  Questions   n What  technology  platforms  contributed  to  this  event?   n Did  the  technology  platform  have  a  return  on  investment  (ROI)  associated  with  it   upon  purchase?   n When  was  the  platform  acquired?   n How  much  was  the  initial  investment?  Annual  costs?   Content  Questions   n How  long  was  the  content  available  before  it  was  discovered  or  reacted  to?   n Which  of  the  following  best  describes  the  content:   q Document  in  repository   q Post  on  social  network   q E-­‐mail   q Face-­‐to-­‐face  conversation   n How  did  you  find  the  content?  
  • 11.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     11     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   q Social  stream?   q Post  in  a  team  portal?   q Post  in  an  enterprise  portal?   q Search?   q E-­‐mail  with  a  link?   Value  Questions   n When  did  the  initial  value  occur?   n What  was  the  initial  value  attributed  to  the  event?   n What  was  the  first  economic  value  derived  from  the  event?   n How  was  the  value  determined?   n Have  you  recorded  subsequent  or  ongoing  value,  savings  or  revenue  related  to   the  event?   o If  so,  what  value  have  you  derived  to  date?   n What  was  the  outcome:   q Improved  process?   q Reduced  cost?   q New  product/revenue?   q New  business  model?   q Acquisition  or  merger?   q Other?   Demographics   n What  industry  is  your  company  associated  with?   n How  many  employees?   n Company  size?   n Location/locations  where  event  took  place?              
  • 12.   The  Serendipity  Economy  Quantification  Study  Pilot  Project  Report     12     ©  2014  Serious  Insights  LLC           seriousinsights.net   Appendix  2:  Additional  Reading     Fast  Company   The  Serendipity  Economy:  How  Spontaneity  Plus  Social  Networking  Drives  Innovation   http://www.fastcompany.com/3015886/leadership-­‐now/the-­‐serendipity-­‐ economy-­‐how-­‐spontaneity-­‐plus-­‐social-­‐networking-­‐drives-­‐innovat       Harvard  Business  Review   How  IT  Professionals  Can  Embrace  the  Serendipity  Economy   http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/08/how-­‐it-­‐professionals-­‐can-­‐embrace-­‐the-­‐serendipity/     Daniel  W.  Rasmus   Daniel  W.  Rasmus,  the  author  of  Listening  to  the  Future  and   Management  by  Design,  is  a  strategist  and  industry  analyst  who  helps   clients  put  their  future  in  context.  Rasmus  uses  scenarios  to  analyze   trends  in  society,  technology,  economics  and  politics  in  order  to   discover  implications  used  to  develop  and  refine  products,  services   and  experiences.   In  Management  by  Design  Rasmus  proposes  an  innovative  new   methodology  for  work  experience  design.  Rasmus’s  thoughts  about   the  future  of  work  have  appeared  recently  in  African  Business  Review,   Chief  Learning  Officer  Magazine,  Fast  Company,  Talent  Management,   KMWorld,  iPhone  Life,  PopMatters  and  on  the  Harvard  Business   Review  blog.    Rasmus  is  an  internationally  recognized  speaker.  He  has   addressed  audiences  at  Enterprise  2.0,  CeBIT,  KMWorld,  Educause,  Future  Trends  and  many  other   conferences.   Prior  to  starting  his  own  consulting  practice,  Rasmus  was  the  Director  of  Business  Insights  at  Microsoft,   where  he  helped  the  company  envision  how  people  will  work  in  the  future.    Rasmus  was  the  creative   leader  for  Microsoft’s  Center  for  Information  Work.  Before  joining  Microsoft,  Rasmus  was  a  Vice  President   and  Research  Director  at  Forrester  Research.   Rasmus  attended  the  University  of  California  at  Santa  Cruz  and  received  a  certificate  in  intelligent  systems   engineering  from  the  University  of  California  at  Irvine.  He  is  the  former  Visiting  Liberal  Arts  Fellow  at   Bellevue  College  in  Bellevue,  WA.  Rasmus  is  currently  a  member  of  the  Faculty  Academy  at  Pinchot   University  in  Seattle  WA.