Jonathan Nowell A Look at the US Children's Book Market

January 2015
US CHILDREN’S BOOK
MARKET
JONATHAN NOWELL
NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT

Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary.
2
AGENDA
Children’s book sales around the world
US children’s Book market
Our big opportunities
… and a challenge

3
6.3% 7.6%
-0.1%-1.8%
7.8%
8.1%
12.8%
-2.4%
1.6%
CHILDREN’S BOOK SALES AROUND THE WORLD
Global growth in Children’s print book market
28.0%*
*Brazil data based on Quarter 3-5 2013 vs Quarter 3-5 2014
9.9%

4
2013: THE BEST YEAR TO DATE?
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions
Juvenile 2004 – 2013 CAGR: 4%
Source: Bookscan

5
2014 WAS EVEN BETTER
Source: Bookscan
Physical Unit Sales in Juvenile Books
12.8% Growth
200
226
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014
Millions

6
JUVENILE’S BESTSELLERS HAVE GOTTEN BIGGER
Overall Bestsellers 2013 (All Categories)
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date 2013 Sales
1 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 1,825,931
2 INFERNO BROWN DAN DOUBLEDAY BOOKS 5/1/2013 1,400,835
3 KILLING JESUS: A HISTORY O'REILLY BILL HENRY HOLT & COMPANY 9/1/2013 1,111,271
4 PROOF OF HEAVEN: A NEUROSURGEO ALEXANDER EBEN SIMON & SCHUSTER 10/1/2012 935,998
5 THE HOUSE OF HADES RIORDAN RICK DISNEY PRESS 10/1/2013 926,059
6 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 829,770
7 JESUS CALLING: ENJOYING PEACE YOUNG SARAH THOMAS NELSON PUB 10/1/2004 828,531
8 SYCAMORE ROW GRISHAM JOHN DOUBLEDAY BOOKS 10/1/2013 700,241
9 THE THIRD WHEEL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2012 667,330
10 HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY: MY LIFE A ROBERTSON PHIL HOWARD BOOKS 5/1/2013 651,395
11 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 646,482
12 LEAN IN: WOMEN, WORK, AND THE SANDBERG SHERYL KNOPF PUBLISHING GROUP 3/1/2013 628,776
13 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON BOOKS 1/1/2012 628,005
14 THINGS THAT MATTER: THREE DECA KRAUTHAMMER C CROWN FORUM 10/1/2013 600,557
15 DOCTOR SLEEP KING STEPHEN SCRIBNER BOOK COMPANY 9/1/2013 564,956
16 THE GREAT GATSBY FITZGERALD F. SC SCRIBNER BOOK COMPANY 10/1/2004 564,630
17 AND THE MOUNTAINS ECHOED HOSSEINI KHALED RIVERHEAD BOOKS 5/1/2013 561,023
18 FIFTY SHADES OF GREY JAMES E. L. VINTAGE BOOKS 4/1/2012 558,046
19 SI-COLOGY 1: TALES AND WISDOM ROBERTSON SI HOWARD BOOKS 9/1/2013 542,219
20 STRENGTHS FINDER 2.0: A NEW AN RATH TOM GALLUP PRESS 2/1/2007 537,987
Source: Bookscan

7
BIGGER AND BIGGER
Overall Bestsellers 2014 YTD Thru 11/23/2014 (All Categories)
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date YTD Sales
1 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 1,708,169
2 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 1,399,710
3 INSURGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 5/1/2012 1,240,220
4 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 1,083,885
5 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 892,687
6 GONE GIRL FLYNN GILLIAN BROADWAY BOOKS 4/1/2014 846,624
7 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON JUVENILE 1/1/2012 781,042
8 THE LONG HAUL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2014 699,928
9 KILLING PATTON: THE STRANGE DE O'REILLY BILL HENRY HOLT & COMPANY 9/1/2014 685,187
10 LOOKING FOR ALASKA GREEN JOHN SPEAK 1/1/2007 661,012
11 IF I STAY FORMAN GAYLE SPEAK 4/1/2010 651,264
12 FROZEN SAXON VICTORIA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 600,279
13 MINECRAFT: REDSTONE HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 4/1/2014 597,286
14 THE MAZE RUNNER DASHNER JAMES DELACORTE PRESS BOOKS FOR Y 8/1/2010 588,701
15 MINECRAFT: ESSENTIAL HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 11/1/2013 577,180
16 JESUS CALLING: ENJOYING PEACE YOUNG SARAH THOMAS NELSON PUBLISHERS 10/1/2004 570,855
17 FOUR ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 7/1/2014 552,728
18 FROZEN: JOURNEY TO THE ICE PAL BERRIOS FRANK RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 543,710
19 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 512,219
20 FROZEN: BIG SNOWMAN, LITTLE SN RABE TISH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 492,822
Source: Bookscan

8Source: Bookscan
JUVENILE’S GROWTH IS DRIVING THE INDUSTRY
Overall US Physical Book Market 2012-2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014
Millions
Adult Non-Fiction Adult Fiction Juvenile Fiction Juvenile Non-Fiction Other
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: -3%
CAGR: 11%
CAGR: -2%
CAGR: 2%

9
SHIFTS IN WHERE CHILDREN’S BOOKS ARE BOUGHT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
Book clubs/Fairs
E-tailers
Chain Bookstores
Indie Bookstores
Mass Merch
Consumer Survey Responses – Location of Book Purchases
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2009-2014, excludes YA.

OPPORTUNITIES
Growth Opportunities

11
TABLET USAGE BY CHILDREN’S BUYERS
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2011 through August2014
Which of the following devices do you own?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q 1
2011
Q 2
2011
Q 3
2011
Q 4
2011
Q 1
2012
Q 2
2012
Q 3
2012
Q 4
2012
Q 1
2013
Q 2
2013
Q 3
2013
Q 4
2013
Q 1
2014
Q 2
2014
Q 3
2014
TABLET
SMARTPHONE
EREADER

12
19%
29%
30%
13%
7%
2%
3%
9%
26%
29%
25%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 - 2 3 - 4 5 - 6 7 - 8 9 - 10 11 - 12
Child 0-6 Child 7-12
Mean: 4.84 Mean: 7.19
CHILDREN ARE STARTING TO READ E-BOOKS YOUNGER
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2014
At What Age Did Your Child Start Reading eBooks?

13
SO CHILDREN’S E-BOOK SALES INCREASING …
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2014 thru June
OF CHILDREN'S BOOKS PURCHASED
ARE E-BOOKS
21%

14
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, 2011 thru June 2014.
AND GROWING AT A HEALTHY PACE
E-book % Share of Children's Books Purchased
7%
15% 14%
21%
93%
85% 86%
79%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
Ebooks Physical

15
BUT PRINT BOOKS ARE IMPORTANT
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2014
How important are the following media?
4.0
4.0
4.3
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.3
5.1
5.8
5.6
7.2
5.1
5.3
5.0
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.9
5.6
6.1
7.0
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Handheld games
Online games
Kid-specific social networks like Club Penguin or…
Video game systems
eBooks
Mobile apps
Children's magazines
Video streaming services such as Hulu or Netflix
Board games
Cable or broadcast television
Children's DVDs
Educational Websites
Print books
7 or older
6 and under

16
Source: Bookscan
PHYSICAL FORMATS ARE GROWING, BUT
BOARD BOOKS SOAR
Children’s Physical Sales by Format Q4 2013 – Q3 2014
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Trade Paperback Hardcover Board Book Boxed Set MM Paperback Other
Millions
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
22% CAGR
9% CAGR
9% CAGR

17
JUVENILE FICTION BY SUB-CATEGORY
Source: Bookscan
-
5
10
15
20
25
Humorous
Stories
Fantasy &
Magic
Social Issues Action &
Adventure
Media Tie-In Classics Animals Holidays &
Celebrations
Concepts Dystopian Science
Fiction
Millions
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
Unit Volume by BISAC Category Q4 2011 – Q3 2014

18
JUVENILE NON-FICTION BY SUB-CATEGORY
Source: Bookscan
Unit Volume by BISAC Category Q4 2011 – Q3 2014
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Activity
Books
Animals Biography
& Auto
Games &
Activities
Concepts Science &
Nature
Religion History Study Aids Language
Arts
Millions
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014

19
Magic Tree House
in JNF History
POPULAR BRANDS PERMEATE MANY CATEGORIES
Star Wars
in JNF Crafts and Hobbies
Disney Princesses
in JNF Cooking

20
CHARACTERISTICS OF JNF BUYERS
Source: Nielsen Books and Consumers, 2013 and 2014 thru May per PubTrack Books and Consumers. Survey does not include buyers less than 13 years of
age. Percentages reflect % share of JNF Buyers, Indices are % JNF/ % all US book buyers * 100
42%
13% 13%
33%
29%
No Children Any Children <3 Yrs Any Children 3-5 Any Children 6-12 Any Children 13-17
Approximately 27% of JNF books purchased are
by adults with no children and not as gifts.
15%
OF JNF BOOKS
PURCHASED
WERE GIFTS

21
Source: Bookscan
THE RISE OF YOUNG ADULT BESTSELLERS
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date 2011
1 THE HUNGER GAMES COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 7/1/2010 1,577,952
2 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID 6: CABIN KINNEY JEFF ABRAMS 11/1/2011 1,563,302
3 CATCHING FIRE COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 9/1/2009 985,174
4 INHERITANCE PAOLINI CHRISTOPHER ALFRED A. KNOPF BOOKS FOR YOUN 11/1/2011 900,145
5 MOCKINGJAY COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 8/1/2010 853,314
6 THE SON OF NEPTUNE BK 02 RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 10/1/2011 698,563
7 THE KANE CHRONICLES, THE, BOOK RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 5/1/2011 534,605
8 THE UGLY TRUTH KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2010 523,966
9 ELF ON THE SHELF AEBERSOLD CAROL V. CCA & B 12/1/2006 499,568
10 THE WIMPY KID DO-IT-YOURSELF B KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 5/1/2011 487,814
11 RODRICK RULES KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 2/1/2008 338,324
12 GOODNIGHT MOON BROWN MARGARET WISE HARPERFESTIVAL 8/1/1991 329,107
13 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 4/1/2007 309,087
14 THE HEROES OF OLYMPUS, THE, BO RIORDAN RICK HYPERION BOOKS 10/1/2010 294,421
15 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LAST KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 1/1/2009 288,874
16 AWAKENED CAST P. C. ST. MARTIN'S GRIFFIN 1/1/2011 285,412
17 GREEN EGGS AND HAM: 50TH ANNIV DR SEUSS RANDOM HOUSE CHILDREN'S BOOKS 8/1/1960 282,374
18 DIARY OF A WIMPY KID #4 - DOG KINNEY JEFF ABRAMS 10/1/2009 273,985
19 OH, THE PLACES YOU'LL GO! DR SEUSS RANDOM HOUSE CHILDREN'S BOOKS 1/1/1990 261,923
20 THE HUNGER GAMES TRILOGY BOXED COLLINS SUZANNE SCHOLASTIC PRESS 8/1/2010 254,560
Top 20 Juvenile Titles – 2011

22
Source: Bookscan
Top 20 Juvenile Titles – YTD thru Week 48 2014
# Title Author Imprint Pub Date YTD Sales
1 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 1,732,157
2 DIVERGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 2/1/2012 1,403,653
3 INSURGENT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 5/1/2012 1,249,813
4 ALLEGIANT ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 10/1/2013 1,092,487
5 THE LONG HAUL KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2014 921,742
6 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 4/1/2014 897,941
7 THE FAULT IN OUR STARS GREEN JOHN DUTTON JUVENILE 1/1/2012 783,135
8 LOOKING FOR ALASKA GREEN JOHN SPEAK 1/1/2007 672,344
9 IF I STAY FORMAN GAYLE SPEAK 4/1/2010 667,870
10 FROZEN SAXON VICTORIA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 629,080
11 MINECRAFT: REDSTONE HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 4/1/2014 612,832
12 THE MAZE RUNNER DASHNER JAMES DELACORTE PRESS BOOKS FOR YOUN 8/1/2010 601,700
13 MINECRAFT: ESSENTIAL HANDBOOK: SCHOLASTIC INC. SCHOLASTIC INC. 11/1/2013 594,709
14 FOUR ROTH VERONICA KATHERINE TEGEN BOOKS 7/1/2014 567,431
15 FROZEN: JOURNEY TO THE ICE PAL BERRIOS FRANK RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 564,756
16 HARD LUCK KINNEY JEFF AMULET BOOKS 11/1/2013 525,303
17 FROZEN: BIG SNOWMAN, LITTLE SN RABE TISH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 511,098
18 PAPER TOWNS GREEN JOHN SPEAK 9/1/2009 504,535
19 FROZEN: A TALE OF TWO SISTERS LAGONEGRO MELISSA RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 486,328
20 FROZEN: THE JUNIOR NOVELIZATIO NATHAN SARAH RANDOM HOUSE DISNEY 10/1/2013 455,842

23
Count of YA ISBNs in Bookscan Juvenile Bestselling Top 20 –
2006 thru 2014
Source: Bookscan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

24
OF YOUNG ADULT BOOKS ARE
BOUGHT BY ADULTS FOR THEMSELVES
80%Y A
ADULTS ARE HEAVY YA READERS
Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer US, Spring 2014.

25
TEENS THAT READ FOR FUN
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall2014
79% 81%
78%
70%
59%
62%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Fall 11 Spring 12 Fall 12 Spring 13 Fall 13 Spring 14 Fall '14
Read for fun
On the rise after a dip in 2013

26
6%
15%
29%
34%
17%
6%
15%
30%
31%
19%
6%
12%
28%
30%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
I strongly prefer eBooks I generally prefer
eBooks
I have no preference I generally prefer print,
books but are open to
eBooks
I strongly prefer print
books
Fall 13 Spring 14 Fall 14
WHAT FORMAT DO TEENS PREFER?
Source: Nielsen Children’s Deep Dive US, Fall 2013-Fall 2014.

27
UK 34%
Children's
Other genre
CHILDREN’S SHARE OF OVERALL PRINT BOOK
MARKET
US 37%
Children's/Juvenile
Other genre
China 18%
Children's
Other genre

28
FROM ONLINE STARDOM TO RECORD BOOK SALES
Engaging teen readers through YouTube stars
Nielsen BookScan/YouTube/Nielsen Books & Consumers UK
6.6million subscribers
90k copies globally in debut week
3.4million subscribers
163k copies YTD
63% of book-buyers
aged 16-19 in the UK
are active YouTube
users.
UPCOMING
3.6million
subscribers
6.4million
subscribers
4.1million
subscribers

29
WHERE DO BOOKS RANK FOR DIFFERENT AGE
GROUPS?
Base: all 0-17s Weekly participation; with exception of YouTube, images are examples to illustrate type of activity, e.g. football represents sport
14-175-7 8-10 11-130-4

30
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Children’s is doing GREAT
• Growth is driven by many different areas and strategies
• YA Series & Media tie-ins upending traditional patterns
• Some growth driven by adult consumers “for self”
• Child is THE MOST important influencer
• Rights growth in China
• Traditional wisdom no longer applies

31
OUR BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS …
Base: all 0-17s Weekly participation; with exception of YouTube, images are examples to illustrate type of activity, e.g. football represents sport
14-1711-13

Jonathan Nowell A Look at the US Children's Book Market

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