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Seeing The Risks
Throughout Your Supply Chain
Do not overlook low-probability risks
Humans have many biases. One of them is to underestimate the
probability of rare events.
Financial models often support that. Example: in 2003, the Japanese
Nuclear Commission set a goal of 1 nuclear incident per million years. It
happened 8 years later!
A global “once in a Century” pandemic was predictable, especially
after SARS. George W. Bush in 2005 and Bill Gates in 2015 said
preventive measures were needed.
And yet… nothing was done in nearly all countries.
The Business Continuity Plan
1. Planning: what are the risks?
2. Prioritizing: what are the highest risks?
3. Taking preventive actions: how to address high risks?
 Become less exposed (preventively)
 Have more visibility and monitor the risks (so we can react early)
 Have a reaction plan already in place
 Prepare employees & managers, suppliers, customers…
Here is a simplified business continuity plan example with 2 potential
issues shown:
These issues then get rated on the 3 dimensions of risk: severity of impact,
likelihood of occurrence, and ability to detect.
(Same 2 issues, same table, moving to the columns on the right.)
All this leads to an action plan:
The Need For Transparency
To see the risks, you need to have visibility over your supply chain.
“From farm to fork”?
It can be very time consuming.
Some of your partners will certainly resist.
(Do you need full identifiers? “Paint shop A”, “Cable supplier B”…)
Illustrating the approach (1)
Illustrating the approach (2)
Performance impact and total spent at supplier site
Generating a critical supplier list
Image/s source: INFORMS: FROM PANDEMIC DISRUPTION TO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RECOVERY
Time for decisions: what are the options?
 Higher inventory? At what locations?
 24/7 monitoring of certain facilities?
 Double-source a component/product
 In different countries?
 Sole-source, but have your key partners set up a strong BCP?
 They double-source components
 They produce in 2 sites, they hold extra inventory…
 Buy insurance
 Digitization of certain processes
 Diversify sales channels
 ...
Thanks for joining the presentation!
Any questions?

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Seeing Risks Throughout Your Supply Chain

  • 1. Seeing The Risks Throughout Your Supply Chain
  • 2. Do not overlook low-probability risks Humans have many biases. One of them is to underestimate the probability of rare events. Financial models often support that. Example: in 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission set a goal of 1 nuclear incident per million years. It happened 8 years later! A global “once in a Century” pandemic was predictable, especially after SARS. George W. Bush in 2005 and Bill Gates in 2015 said preventive measures were needed. And yet… nothing was done in nearly all countries.
  • 3. The Business Continuity Plan 1. Planning: what are the risks? 2. Prioritizing: what are the highest risks? 3. Taking preventive actions: how to address high risks?  Become less exposed (preventively)  Have more visibility and monitor the risks (so we can react early)  Have a reaction plan already in place  Prepare employees & managers, suppliers, customers…
  • 4. Here is a simplified business continuity plan example with 2 potential issues shown:
  • 5. These issues then get rated on the 3 dimensions of risk: severity of impact, likelihood of occurrence, and ability to detect. (Same 2 issues, same table, moving to the columns on the right.)
  • 6. All this leads to an action plan:
  • 7. The Need For Transparency To see the risks, you need to have visibility over your supply chain. “From farm to fork”? It can be very time consuming. Some of your partners will certainly resist. (Do you need full identifiers? “Paint shop A”, “Cable supplier B”…)
  • 10. Performance impact and total spent at supplier site
  • 11. Generating a critical supplier list Image/s source: INFORMS: FROM PANDEMIC DISRUPTION TO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RECOVERY
  • 12. Time for decisions: what are the options?  Higher inventory? At what locations?  24/7 monitoring of certain facilities?  Double-source a component/product  In different countries?  Sole-source, but have your key partners set up a strong BCP?  They double-source components  They produce in 2 sites, they hold extra inventory…  Buy insurance  Digitization of certain processes  Diversify sales channels  ...
  • 13. Thanks for joining the presentation! Any questions?

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. It is clear the second risk is much more frightening (composite score of 20) than the first risk (score of 4). In addition, the 2nd risk also comes with an opportunity. Taking preventive measures that can be communicated to customers and potential customers might bring more business. That’s an extra reason to act on this. At this point, you have an assessment of the current level of exposure to risk.
  2. Once all this has been done seriously, and actions have been implemented, the risks can be re-assessed, and the organization’s ability to recover from disasters can be re-evaluated.
  3. Source URL: https://bc3-production-blobs-us-east-2.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2c8d2864-c1b1-11ea-b56d-a0369f740db7?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22INFORMS_Supply_Chain_Recovery.pdf%22%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27INFORMS_Supply_Chain_Recovery.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAS5PME4CT5QW2PJJU%2F20200709%2Fus-east-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200709T130812Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=405b4feb0beb817b56801c1238e56d10e24573ebc36e8b03eafb8058b0fc115f