Presentation prepared by Sy Martial Traoré, CILSS, 36th RPCA annual meeting, 3 December 2020.

1. December 2020
36th ANNUAL MEETING
2020/2021 season
provisional figures and the
regional market situation
by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan
• Background
• Reminder about the progress of 2020/2021 cropping
season
• 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures
• Provisional cereal food balance for 2020/2021
• 2020/2021 roots and tubers production figures
• 2020/2021 cash crops production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional market situation
• Recommendations

3. Background
• Joint CILSS/FAO/FEWSNET/WFP and Governments preharvest
assessments have been conducted in 15 countries from October to
November 2020; Excepted : Guinea and Cabo Verde
• The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have
been presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting 26
November 2020 by VC; Production from Cabo Verde and Niger not
provided;
• Representing from all countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC
meeting ;
• 9 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey :
Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad;
• 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and
historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau Guinea, Guinea; Ghana;
Mauritania, Sierra Leone
• Forage balance sheet improvement but only : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger,
Chad
• Weaknesses : Ex post, cereal balance and Food balance sheets;

4. Estimated yield anomalies for maize (90 days) at 30
September
Rainfall anomaly estimated by satellite RFE 2020/Average
2009-2018
Progress of 2020/2021 cropping
season
Rainfall conditions were favourable for
the effective planting of rainfed
cereals before the end of July 2020;
The level of satisfaction of water
needs was globally good during the
season => the effects of pockets of
drought observed in the Sahel
between the end of June and early
July were reduced with the return of
rains, from the 2nd dekad of July
onwards.
Rainfed crop yields are predominantly
higher than the median values of the
last 5 years in almost all West African
and Sahelian countries;
Apart from some localities affected by
small pockets of drought, floods and
crop pests, the 2020 crops are average
to good, sub-region-wide.)

5. Progress of 2020/2021 cropping
season
Hydrological situation :
Water flows in the major river basins have
reached levels above the 1981-2010
hydrological normal at several stations in the
Senegal River, Upper and Middle Niger and the
Lake Chad-Chari system.
Ex: The Niamey station has reached water
levels never observed since its creation.
The river overflows thus observed have caused
thousands of displaced people, especially in
Senegal, Niger and Benin..
Phytosanitary Situation
Attacks by millet stem borers, mainly in Niger and
Fall armyworm (FAW) outbreaks to varying degrees in all countries of
the region,.
The Desert Locust situation remains calm in all the summer
breeding areas of the western region, with low numbers of locusts
despite the favourable ecological conditions for locust
development in their survival and reproduction areas.

6. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production
figures
74.8 million mT, increased by 1.3% vs last year and 9% vs average 5years

7. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production
figures
Situation per cereal
Items
Production
Million mT
Var. 2019/2020 (%)
Var. Average 5yrs
(%)
Maize 26 576 648 -0,2% 13,9%
Rice 21 296 124 -0,3% 5,9%
Sorghum 15 281 028 3,4% 8,8%
Millet 10 772 851 5,1% 5,8%
Fonio/Acha 754 844 16,7% 134,4%
Wheat-Barley 108 288 35,8% 17,0%
Total 74 789 783 1,4% 9,3%

8. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production
figures
Countries Prov. 2020/2021 Var 2019/2020 (%)
Var Average
2015/2019 (%)
Burkina Faso 5 331 073 7,9% 16,2%
Cap Vert* 3 500 11,6%
Gambie 120 721 26,9% -16,2%
Guinée Bissau 257 504 7,5% 16,2%
Mali 10 233 207 -2,1% 9,3%
Mauritanie 478 584 11,7% 33,2%
Niger* 5 312 400 0,3% -6,7%
Sénégal 3 811 894 37,7% 53,0%
Tchad 2 911 863 -0,5% 4,1%
SAHEL 28 460 747 4,8% 10,9%
Production figure per country

9. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production
figures
Countries Prov. 2020/2021 Var 2019/2020 (%)
Var Average
2015/2019 (%)
Bénin 2 152 763 -1,1% 9,6%
Côte d'Ivoire 2 891 353 -8,1% -10,5%
Guinée 4 707 132 8,9% 21,9%
Ghana 4 636 371 5,0% 39,9%
Liberia 269 787 -2,4% 0,2%
Nigeria 29 214 560 -2,3% 6,0%
Sierra Leone 1 102 562 2,5% -14,7%
Togo 1 355 508 -1,2% 8,5%
Pays Côtiers 46 330 036 -0,7% 8,4%
Production figure per country

10. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production
figures
Zones Production 2020-2021 (t) Changes
Provisional Var19/20 VarMoy5A
TOTAL 74 789 783 1,4% 9,3%
Zone UEMOA 31 345 703 3,1% 8,8%
Zone CEDEAO 71 400 336 1,4% 9,4%
CILSS 39 567 503 3,8% 10,0%
Bassin est 39 591 586 -1,7% 4,1%
Bassin centre 24 447 513 0,5% 12,4%
Bassin ouest 10 751 684 16,8% 24,4%
Production figure per zone

11. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production
figures
Cereal production per head (kg)
Countries
Prov. Prov. 2020/2021
Kg/capita
Var 2019/2020
(%)
Var Average 2015/2019
(%)
Burkina Faso 233 -4% -4%
Cap Vert 1 -1% -85%
Gambie 50 31% -47%
Guinée Bissau 123 4% 4%
Mali 505 -1% 32%
Mauritanie 112 -1% -44%
Niger 216 -6% 12%
Sénégal 214 25% 62%
Tchad 175 -3% -6%
SAHEL 258 0% 5%

12. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production
figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
Prov. 2020/2021
Kg/capita
Var 2019/2020 Var Average 2015/2019
Bénin 172 -3% 7%
Côte d'Ivoire 108 -9% -15%
Guinée 369 8% 17%
Ghana 145 -6% 29%
Liberia 52 -18% -54%
Nigeria 139 -1% 23%
Sierra Leone 137 2% -17%
Togo 173 -5% -5%
Pays Côtiers 147 -2% -1%
TOTAL 176 -1% 2%

13. Regional Provisional Cereal balance
Sheet (2012/2021)
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio),
others cereals
Total
427 115 567
Population au 01/20/2021
1. Disponibilités 13 918 809 406 730 46 248 044 60 573 583
Production brute 2020/2021 21 296 124 108 288 53 385 371 74 789 783
Production disponible 13 690 391 92 052 45 015 230 58 797 673
Stocks initiaux 568 354 314 678 1 232 814 2 115 846
-Socks paysans 333 674 254 791 1 103 033 1 691 498
-Autres stocks 234 680 59 887 129 781 424 348
-
2. Besoins 14 574 309 4 725 631 42 167 252 61 467 192
Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) moyenne
Consommation humaine 14 120 641 4 558 646 41 097 499 59 776 786
Stocks finaux 453 668 166 985 1 069 753 1 690 406
-Socks paysans 427 424 149 455 943 958 1 520 837
-Autres stocks 275 744 77 417 275 795 628 956
3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut - 655 501 - 4 318 900 4 080 792 - 893 609
4. Solde import/export 9 456 714 9 643 886 231 015 19 331 615
Importations commerciales (2020/2021) 9 518 835 10 141 556 596 081 20 256 472
+ Commerçants privés 9 491 306 10 141 556 587 946 20 220 808
+ Autres importations 7 589 - 8 115 15 704
Aides alimentaires 19 940 - 20 19 960
Exportations prévues 62 121 497 670 365 066 924 857
5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 8 801 213 5 324 986 4 311 807 18 438 006
6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 55 24 109 187

14. Regional Cereal balance Sheet
(deficit)
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio),
others cereals
Total
Burkina Faso 93 013 (18 797) 763 480 837 696
Cap Vert 6 086 276 (36 139) (29 777)
Gambie 154 632 (15 331) (168 617) (29 316)
Guinée Bissau (84 211) (0) (25 107) (109 319)
Mali 532 963 187 062 3 626 885 4 346 911
Mauritanie 52 205 261 016 (30 431) 282 790
Niger 166 420 (81 000) (546 240) (460 820)
Sénégal 646 222 219 572 864 709 1 730 503
Tchad 57 809 68 167 (93 362) 32 614
SAHEL 1 625 140 620 965 4 355 178 6 601 283
Bénin 539 692 328 000 370 493 1 238 185
Côte d'Ivoire 1 155 137 279 650 396 858 1 831 646
Guinée 628 808 152 202 694 989 1 476 000
Ghana 644 444 169 162 954 524 1 768 130
Liberia (131 081) (74 590) (25 850) (231 521)
Nigeria 4 033 792 3 697 577 (2 093 116) 5 638 253
Sierra Leone 108 350 59 871 (377 950) (209 729)
Togo 196 931 92 147 36 681 325 760
Pays Côtiers 7 176 073 4 704 020 (43 371) 11 836 723
TOTAL 8 801 213 5 324 986 4 311 807 18 438 006
Zone UEMOA 3 246 169 1 006 634 5 487 759 9 740 562
Zone CEDEAO 8 691 199 4 995 803 4 435 600 18 122 602
CILSS 4 145 709 1 472 965 5 854 199 11 472 873
Bassin est 4 797 713 4 012 744 (2 362 226) 6 448 231
Bassin centre 2 622 488 709 225 5 778 429 9 110 142
Bassin ouest 1 381 012 603 016 895 604 2 879 632

15. Roots and Tubers production provisional
figure (2020/2021)
Crop
Production
Million mT
Var. 2018/2019 (%)
Var. Average 5yrs
(%)
Cassava 100 050 162 3,5% 11,3%
Yam 76 996 686 6,2% 18,9%
Sweet potato 5 885 987 5,5% 8,8%
Irish potato 2 172 336 12,3% 26,6%
Coco yam 9 733 312 0,7% 6,7%
Total 194 838 483 3,7% 11,6%
Production per crop

16. Leguminous and oil seeds provisional
production figure (2020/2021)
Crops
Production
Million mT
Var. 2019/2019 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Cacao 3 385 964 -4% 4%
Coffee 318 562 3% 21%
Hevea 1 136 771 5% 40%
Casheu nut 1 742 892 21% 35%
Palm Oil 5 157 703 9% 9%
Plantain 14 154 173 45% 124%
Production per crop

17. Other productions
4.18 millions
Tonnes, en 2020
Fish production
Livestocks population
Cattle
114.4
Camel
13.7
Sheep
166.2
Goat
228
Pigs
16.3
Chicken
691.3

18. Pastoral situation
The growing conditions of the
vegetation were favorable to a good
production of forage biomass;
Indeed, this fodder production is
much higher than last year and the
average of the last five years.
Almost the entire pastoral zone of
the Sahelian front countries is
characterized by the availability of
green fodder
Biomass production in kg of dry matter per hectare
(Kg.MS/ha) on 30 September 2020
• The carrying capacity at the end of the 2020 raining season is
significantly higher than last year and the average of the last 5 years;
• No early departure of transhumant animals;
• Allows to keep the animals longer and to have a late lean season.

19. Pastoral situation
Relative difference (in percentage) of biomass production on 20
October 2020 compared to last year at the same time period • The growing conditions of the
vegetation were favourable to
a good production of forage
biomass;
• the availability of green fodder
in almost all administrative
units of the Sahelian
countries, with some negative
anomalies in Mali, Niger and
Chad;
• Availability of water for
animal watering. However, it
is important to note that the
heavy rains have caused
localized losses of animals in
the Sahelian countries and
long-term flooding of some
enclaves.
It is important to remember that,
although fodder is available, access
to pasture in many localities is still
difficult due to civil insecurity.

20. Nutritional situation
Nutritional situation is alarming
• Due to combined effects : food
insecurity situation + instable
security context + various impacts
of the COVID-19 pandemic
• high prevalence's of acute
malnutrition above the 10% alert
threshold in the regions of
Northern Burkina Faso,
Central/Northern Mali, East/West
Chad and Niger (emergency
threshold of 15% is exceeded in the
south-eastern part of the Diffa and
Zinder regions).If the security situation further
deteriorates, there could be a deterioration
in the nutritional situation, especially for
displaced persons and their host areas.

21. Nutritional situation
In addition, in the Centre-Sahel and
Lake Chad Basin, massive
population displacements and
limited access to basic social services
due to civil insecurity are
aggravating factors for the
nutritional situation of millions of
women and children, while
implementing partners have
increasingly limited humanitarian
access to operate.
In view of the results of the Harmonized Framework, the
nutritional status of children under five and mothers already
facing multiple risks and increased vulnerabilities could
deteriorate further in the coming lean season.

22. Regional markets situation
Fair Production level (harver period)
Persistence of inflation in many countries in the region (SL, LI, NG, GH, GN, GB)
Persistence of civil insecurity in several parts of the regional
IDP in many countries in the region
Outbreak of covid-19
Drop in cross broder flows

23. Regional markets situation
Supply and demand
Western Basin
• Stability  Increase
• Very good production
• Regional flow from Mali, CI
(Central Basin)
• But troubles because of COVID-19
• Very high price : inflation (SL, LI)
• High price of fruit and legume (SN
 Morocco);
• Socio-politic troubles
Central Basin
• Slight Increase in prices
• Good production (Ghana and Burkina)
• Carry over stock level - Good
• Regional supplier
• But troubles because of COVID-19
• Decrease in maize production (ML)
• Increase of internal demand (IDP)
• Increase of regional demand (EB)
• Insecurity
• Increase in transportation cost
• Socio-politic troubles
Eastern Basin
• More populated basin
• Very high Increase in prices (Nigeria)
• Fair production
• Regional demander
• But troubles because of COVID-19
• Increase of internal demand (IDP)
• Increase of regional demand (CB)
• Insecurity
• Increase in transportation cost
• Insecurity along Nigeria border
• cross-border flows slowing down
• Socio-politic troubler

24. Regional market situation
Cereal price
-1-.50.511.5
Maize Millet Sorghum Local rice Imported rice
Overall increase in cereal prices (13 : 18%), slight decrease vs September
Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice
September 20 9:15% 16:22% 9:15% 13:23% 11-17%
Jun 20 2:7% -1:4% -2:4% 8:17% 11:18%
Mar 20 0:4% 1:6% -4:1% 7:12% 4:10%
15:20%10:14%
11:16% 12:22% 13-18%

25. WEST AFRICA _ SAHEL CEREAL PRICES
TRENDS
Western Basin
Régional
Eastern Basin
Central Basin

26. Regional market situation

27. Regional market situation
Roots, tubers and plantain price variations
(vs 5-year average)
20%
54%
36%
20%
5%
13%
51 49
41
10
22
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Yam Cassava Gari S Potato Potato Plantain
Prices Changes Markets

28. Regional market situation
Livestock prices variations(vs 5-year average)
2%
-30%
-8%
5%
-5%
5%
13%
0%
18%
-2%
8%
25%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Cattle Sheep Goat Camel

29. Recommendations
To Countries:
• Take appropriate actions to improve household access to staple
foods.
• Accelerate the establishment of effective coordination and
monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for responses;
• Investing in the preparation of joint market and food security
assessment missions with an emphasis on the functioning of
secondary markets.
• Facilitate crossbroder flows;
• Expand early detection and treatment services for acute
malnutrition by strengthening health services and energizing
existing community platforms.
• Immediately scale up interventions to protect optimal infant and
young child feeding practices, ensuring access to nutritious, safe
and affordable food and a diversity of foods.

30. Recommendations
To CILSS and partners:
 Support national mechanisms for collecting, processing and disseminating
information on Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security and Resilience;
 Contribute to the financing of humanitarian assistance programs for
populations requiring immediate assistance
 Prepare Food security and market assessment join mission in February 2020.
 Support countries' efforts to assist displaced and food-insecure populations
by activating community crisis management mechanisms and in managing and
mitigating the consequences of the security crisis on the living conditions of
the populations in the areas concerned;
 -Support sectoral and multisectoral coordination efforts through integrated nutrition
intervention packages that target women, adolescent girls and children under 5
years of age in an informed manner.
 -Invest in social protection programmes for the most vulnerable households to
ensure access to nutritious food and basic social services.

31. Many thanks for your attention!