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2020/2021 season provisional figures and the regional market situation

Presentation prepared by Sy Martial Traoré, CILSS, 36th RPCA annual meeting, 3 December 2020.

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2020/2021 season provisional figures and the regional market situation

  1. 1. December 2020 36th ANNUAL MEETING 2020/2021 season provisional figures and the regional market situation by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS
  2. 2. Plan • Background • Reminder about the progress of 2020/2021 cropping season • 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures • Provisional cereal food balance for 2020/2021 • 2020/2021 roots and tubers production figures • 2020/2021 cash crops production figures • Pastoral situation • Regional nutrition situation • Regional market situation • Recommendations
  3. 3. Background • Joint CILSS/FAO/FEWSNET/WFP and Governments preharvest assessments have been conducted in 15 countries from October to November 2020; Excepted : Guinea and Cabo Verde • The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have been presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting 26 November 2020 by VC; Production from Cabo Verde and Niger not provided; • Representing from all countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC meeting ; • 9 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey : Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad; • 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau Guinea, Guinea; Ghana; Mauritania, Sierra Leone • Forage balance sheet improvement but only : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger, Chad • Weaknesses : Ex post, cereal balance and Food balance sheets;
  4. 4. Estimated yield anomalies for maize (90 days) at 30 September Rainfall anomaly estimated by satellite RFE 2020/Average 2009-2018 Progress of 2020/2021 cropping season Rainfall conditions were favourable for the effective planting of rainfed cereals before the end of July 2020; The level of satisfaction of water needs was globally good during the season => the effects of pockets of drought observed in the Sahel between the end of June and early July were reduced with the return of rains, from the 2nd dekad of July onwards. Rainfed crop yields are predominantly higher than the median values of the last 5 years in almost all West African and Sahelian countries; Apart from some localities affected by small pockets of drought, floods and crop pests, the 2020 crops are average to good, sub-region-wide.)
  5. 5. Progress of 2020/2021 cropping season Hydrological situation : Water flows in the major river basins have reached levels above the 1981-2010 hydrological normal at several stations in the Senegal River, Upper and Middle Niger and the Lake Chad-Chari system. Ex: The Niamey station has reached water levels never observed since its creation. The river overflows thus observed have caused thousands of displaced people, especially in Senegal, Niger and Benin.. Phytosanitary Situation Attacks by millet stem borers, mainly in Niger and Fall armyworm (FAW) outbreaks to varying degrees in all countries of the region,. The Desert Locust situation remains calm in all the summer breeding areas of the western region, with low numbers of locusts despite the favourable ecological conditions for locust development in their survival and reproduction areas.
  6. 6. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures 74.8 million mT, increased by 1.3% vs last year and 9% vs average 5years
  7. 7. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production figures Situation per cereal Items Production Million mT Var. 2019/2020 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Maize 26 576 648 -0,2% 13,9% Rice 21 296 124 -0,3% 5,9% Sorghum 15 281 028 3,4% 8,8% Millet 10 772 851 5,1% 5,8% Fonio/Acha 754 844 16,7% 134,4% Wheat-Barley 108 288 35,8% 17,0% Total 74 789 783 1,4% 9,3%
  8. 8. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures Countries Prov. 2020/2021 Var 2019/2020 (%) Var Average 2015/2019 (%) Burkina Faso 5 331 073 7,9% 16,2% Cap Vert* 3 500 11,6% Gambie 120 721 26,9% -16,2% Guinée Bissau 257 504 7,5% 16,2% Mali 10 233 207 -2,1% 9,3% Mauritanie 478 584 11,7% 33,2% Niger* 5 312 400 0,3% -6,7% Sénégal 3 811 894 37,7% 53,0% Tchad 2 911 863 -0,5% 4,1% SAHEL 28 460 747 4,8% 10,9% Production figure per country
  9. 9. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures Countries Prov. 2020/2021 Var 2019/2020 (%) Var Average 2015/2019 (%) Bénin 2 152 763 -1,1% 9,6% Côte d'Ivoire 2 891 353 -8,1% -10,5% Guinée 4 707 132 8,9% 21,9% Ghana 4 636 371 5,0% 39,9% Liberia 269 787 -2,4% 0,2% Nigeria 29 214 560 -2,3% 6,0% Sierra Leone 1 102 562 2,5% -14,7% Togo 1 355 508 -1,2% 8,5% Pays Côtiers 46 330 036 -0,7% 8,4% Production figure per country
  10. 10. 2020/2021 provisional cereal production figures Zones Production 2020-2021 (t) Changes Provisional Var19/20 VarMoy5A TOTAL 74 789 783 1,4% 9,3% Zone UEMOA 31 345 703 3,1% 8,8% Zone CEDEAO 71 400 336 1,4% 9,4% CILSS 39 567 503 3,8% 10,0% Bassin est 39 591 586 -1,7% 4,1% Bassin centre 24 447 513 0,5% 12,4% Bassin ouest 10 751 684 16,8% 24,4% Production figure per zone
  11. 11. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production figures Cereal production per head (kg) Countries Prov. Prov. 2020/2021 Kg/capita Var 2019/2020 (%) Var Average 2015/2019 (%) Burkina Faso 233 -4% -4% Cap Vert 1 -1% -85% Gambie 50 31% -47% Guinée Bissau 123 4% 4% Mali 505 -1% 32% Mauritanie 112 -1% -44% Niger 216 -6% 12% Sénégal 214 25% 62% Tchad 175 -3% -6% SAHEL 258 0% 5%
  12. 12. 2020/2021 Provisional cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries Prov. 2020/2021 Kg/capita Var 2019/2020 Var Average 2015/2019 Bénin 172 -3% 7% Côte d'Ivoire 108 -9% -15% Guinée 369 8% 17% Ghana 145 -6% 29% Liberia 52 -18% -54% Nigeria 139 -1% 23% Sierra Leone 137 2% -17% Togo 173 -5% -5% Pays Côtiers 147 -2% -1% TOTAL 176 -1% 2%
  13. 13. Regional Provisional Cereal balance Sheet (2012/2021) Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total 427 115 567 Population au 01/20/2021 1. Disponibilités 13 918 809 406 730 46 248 044 60 573 583 Production brute 2020/2021 21 296 124 108 288 53 385 371 74 789 783 Production disponible 13 690 391 92 052 45 015 230 58 797 673 Stocks initiaux 568 354 314 678 1 232 814 2 115 846 -Socks paysans 333 674 254 791 1 103 033 1 691 498 -Autres stocks 234 680 59 887 129 781 424 348 - 2. Besoins 14 574 309 4 725 631 42 167 252 61 467 192 Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) moyenne Consommation humaine 14 120 641 4 558 646 41 097 499 59 776 786 Stocks finaux 453 668 166 985 1 069 753 1 690 406 -Socks paysans 427 424 149 455 943 958 1 520 837 -Autres stocks 275 744 77 417 275 795 628 956 3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut - 655 501 - 4 318 900 4 080 792 - 893 609 4. Solde import/export 9 456 714 9 643 886 231 015 19 331 615 Importations commerciales (2020/2021) 9 518 835 10 141 556 596 081 20 256 472 + Commerçants privés 9 491 306 10 141 556 587 946 20 220 808 + Autres importations 7 589 - 8 115 15 704 Aides alimentaires 19 940 - 20 19 960 Exportations prévues 62 121 497 670 365 066 924 857 5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 8 801 213 5 324 986 4 311 807 18 438 006 6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 55 24 109 187
  14. 14. Regional Cereal balance Sheet (deficit) Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total Burkina Faso 93 013 (18 797) 763 480 837 696 Cap Vert 6 086 276 (36 139) (29 777) Gambie 154 632 (15 331) (168 617) (29 316) Guinée Bissau (84 211) (0) (25 107) (109 319) Mali 532 963 187 062 3 626 885 4 346 911 Mauritanie 52 205 261 016 (30 431) 282 790 Niger 166 420 (81 000) (546 240) (460 820) Sénégal 646 222 219 572 864 709 1 730 503 Tchad 57 809 68 167 (93 362) 32 614 SAHEL 1 625 140 620 965 4 355 178 6 601 283 Bénin 539 692 328 000 370 493 1 238 185 Côte d'Ivoire 1 155 137 279 650 396 858 1 831 646 Guinée 628 808 152 202 694 989 1 476 000 Ghana 644 444 169 162 954 524 1 768 130 Liberia (131 081) (74 590) (25 850) (231 521) Nigeria 4 033 792 3 697 577 (2 093 116) 5 638 253 Sierra Leone 108 350 59 871 (377 950) (209 729) Togo 196 931 92 147 36 681 325 760 Pays Côtiers 7 176 073 4 704 020 (43 371) 11 836 723 TOTAL 8 801 213 5 324 986 4 311 807 18 438 006 Zone UEMOA 3 246 169 1 006 634 5 487 759 9 740 562 Zone CEDEAO 8 691 199 4 995 803 4 435 600 18 122 602 CILSS 4 145 709 1 472 965 5 854 199 11 472 873 Bassin est 4 797 713 4 012 744 (2 362 226) 6 448 231 Bassin centre 2 622 488 709 225 5 778 429 9 110 142 Bassin ouest 1 381 012 603 016 895 604 2 879 632
  15. 15. Roots and Tubers production provisional figure (2020/2021) Crop Production Million mT Var. 2018/2019 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Cassava 100 050 162 3,5% 11,3% Yam 76 996 686 6,2% 18,9% Sweet potato 5 885 987 5,5% 8,8% Irish potato 2 172 336 12,3% 26,6% Coco yam 9 733 312 0,7% 6,7% Total 194 838 483 3,7% 11,6% Production per crop
  16. 16. Leguminous and oil seeds provisional production figure (2020/2021) Crops Production Million mT Var. 2019/2019 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Cacao 3 385 964 -4% 4% Coffee 318 562 3% 21% Hevea 1 136 771 5% 40% Casheu nut 1 742 892 21% 35% Palm Oil 5 157 703 9% 9% Plantain 14 154 173 45% 124% Production per crop
  17. 17. Other productions 4.18 millions Tonnes, en 2020 Fish production Livestocks population Cattle 114.4 Camel 13.7 Sheep 166.2 Goat 228 Pigs 16.3 Chicken 691.3
  18. 18. Pastoral situation The growing conditions of the vegetation were favorable to a good production of forage biomass; Indeed, this fodder production is much higher than last year and the average of the last five years. Almost the entire pastoral zone of the Sahelian front countries is characterized by the availability of green fodder Biomass production in kg of dry matter per hectare (Kg.MS/ha) on 30 September 2020 • The carrying capacity at the end of the 2020 raining season is significantly higher than last year and the average of the last 5 years; • No early departure of transhumant animals; • Allows to keep the animals longer and to have a late lean season.
  19. 19. Pastoral situation Relative difference (in percentage) of biomass production on 20 October 2020 compared to last year at the same time period • The growing conditions of the vegetation were favourable to a good production of forage biomass; • the availability of green fodder in almost all administrative units of the Sahelian countries, with some negative anomalies in Mali, Niger and Chad; • Availability of water for animal watering. However, it is important to note that the heavy rains have caused localized losses of animals in the Sahelian countries and long-term flooding of some enclaves. It is important to remember that, although fodder is available, access to pasture in many localities is still difficult due to civil insecurity.
  20. 20. Nutritional situation Nutritional situation is alarming • Due to combined effects : food insecurity situation + instable security context + various impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic • high prevalence's of acute malnutrition above the 10% alert threshold in the regions of Northern Burkina Faso, Central/Northern Mali, East/West Chad and Niger (emergency threshold of 15% is exceeded in the south-eastern part of the Diffa and Zinder regions).If the security situation further deteriorates, there could be a deterioration in the nutritional situation, especially for displaced persons and their host areas.
  21. 21. Nutritional situation In addition, in the Centre-Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, massive population displacements and limited access to basic social services due to civil insecurity are aggravating factors for the nutritional situation of millions of women and children, while implementing partners have increasingly limited humanitarian access to operate. In view of the results of the Harmonized Framework, the nutritional status of children under five and mothers already facing multiple risks and increased vulnerabilities could deteriorate further in the coming lean season.
  22. 22. Regional markets situation Fair Production level (harver period) Persistence of inflation in many countries in the region (SL, LI, NG, GH, GN, GB) Persistence of civil insecurity in several parts of the regional IDP in many countries in the region Outbreak of covid-19 Drop in cross broder flows
  23. 23. Regional markets situation Supply and demand Western Basin • Stability  Increase • Very good production • Regional flow from Mali, CI (Central Basin) • But troubles because of COVID-19 • Very high price : inflation (SL, LI) • High price of fruit and legume (SN  Morocco); • Socio-politic troubles Central Basin • Slight Increase in prices • Good production (Ghana and Burkina) • Carry over stock level - Good • Regional supplier • But troubles because of COVID-19 • Decrease in maize production (ML) • Increase of internal demand (IDP) • Increase of regional demand (EB) • Insecurity • Increase in transportation cost • Socio-politic troubles Eastern Basin • More populated basin • Very high Increase in prices (Nigeria) • Fair production • Regional demander • But troubles because of COVID-19 • Increase of internal demand (IDP) • Increase of regional demand (CB) • Insecurity • Increase in transportation cost • Insecurity along Nigeria border • cross-border flows slowing down • Socio-politic troubler
  24. 24. Regional market situation Cereal price -1-.50.511.5 Maize Millet Sorghum Local rice Imported rice Overall increase in cereal prices (13 : 18%), slight decrease vs September Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice September 20 9:15% 16:22% 9:15% 13:23% 11-17% Jun 20 2:7% -1:4% -2:4% 8:17% 11:18% Mar 20 0:4% 1:6% -4:1% 7:12% 4:10% 15:20%10:14% 11:16% 12:22% 13-18%
  25. 25. WEST AFRICA _ SAHEL CEREAL PRICES TRENDS Western Basin Régional Eastern Basin Central Basin
  26. 26. Regional market situation
  27. 27. Regional market situation Roots, tubers and plantain price variations (vs 5-year average) 20% 54% 36% 20% 5% 13% 51 49 41 10 22 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Yam Cassava Gari S Potato Potato Plantain Prices Changes Markets
  28. 28. Regional market situation Livestock prices variations(vs 5-year average) 2% -30% -8% 5% -5% 5% 13% 0% 18% -2% 8% 25% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Cattle Sheep Goat Camel
  29. 29. Recommendations To Countries: • Take appropriate actions to improve household access to staple foods. • Accelerate the establishment of effective coordination and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for responses; • Investing in the preparation of joint market and food security assessment missions with an emphasis on the functioning of secondary markets. • Facilitate crossbroder flows; • Expand early detection and treatment services for acute malnutrition by strengthening health services and energizing existing community platforms. • Immediately scale up interventions to protect optimal infant and young child feeding practices, ensuring access to nutritious, safe and affordable food and a diversity of foods.
  30. 30. Recommendations To CILSS and partners:  Support national mechanisms for collecting, processing and disseminating information on Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security and Resilience;  Contribute to the financing of humanitarian assistance programs for populations requiring immediate assistance  Prepare Food security and market assessment join mission in February 2020.  Support countries' efforts to assist displaced and food-insecure populations by activating community crisis management mechanisms and in managing and mitigating the consequences of the security crisis on the living conditions of the populations in the areas concerned;  -Support sectoral and multisectoral coordination efforts through integrated nutrition intervention packages that target women, adolescent girls and children under 5 years of age in an informed manner.  -Invest in social protection programmes for the most vulnerable households to ensure access to nutritious food and basic social services.
  31. 31. Many thanks for your attention!

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