Peter Diamandis slides 18-1 e le Organizzazioni a crescita esponenziale
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In passato ci volevano vent'anni per creare un business da un miliardo di dollari. Groupon l'ha fatto in diciotto mesi ! Quella che abbiamo davanti è una nuova tipologia di aziende: le "organizzazioni esponenziali", che polverizzano i tempi di crescita mediante le tecnologie, e contemporaneamente riducendo i costi in modo esponenziale.Le Organizzazioni Esponenziali sono quelle organizzazioni che hanno saputo sfruttare queste opportunità, orientandosi verso un paradigma basato sulla tecnologia. Stessa storia è successa a Nokia, azienda finlandese colosso della telefonia mobile che, dopo l’avvento nel 2007 dell’Iphone (uno degli episodi più rappresentativi della storia del business) decise di investire - due anni dopo (2009) - ben 8,1 miliardi di dollari in Navteq, la prima azienda a commercializzare dati di navigazione e mappatura stradale. Navteq controllava quattrocentomila chilometri di sensori del traffico in 35 grandi città e 13 Paesi. L’azienda finlandese era convinta che investire in questo asset sarebbe stata la scelta “strategica” migliore per respingere l’avanzata di Google e Apple e rafforzare la propria quota di mercato. Poi un giorno, in Israele, nasceva Waze che, invece di puntare sulle infrastrutture fisiche, raccoglieva i dati e le informazioni che gli utenti, attraverso gli smartphone, inviavano in tempo reale. Il costo marginale (ossia ogni fonte in più di informazione) era pari a 0, a differenza del sistema messo su da Nokia. Il resto della storia già la conosciamo. Il successo di Waze e delle Organizzazioni Esponenziali è dovuto a due fattori chiave: L’accesso a risorse non di proprietà L’informazione è l’asset migliore Siamo in un’epoca in cui ogni aspetto della nostra vita si sta informatizzando e l’ambiente intorno a noi crea infinite opportunità. Anche le organizzazioni nei mercati più tradizionali devono esser pronte a cambiar pagina se vogliono sopravvivere !
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Peter Diamandis slides 18-1 e le Organizzazioni a crescita esponenziale
- 1. The Power & Implications of Exponential Change Peter H. Diamandis, MD
- 2. Human development over 150,000+ years… LOCAL + LINEAR
- 3. EXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL Human development over 150,000+ years…
- 5. EXPONENTIALLINEAR 1996 MarketCap: $28B Employees: 140,000 2012 Bankrupt Employees: 17,000 April 2012 MarketCap: $1B Employees: 13 “The New Kodak Moment”
- 8. “Neither RedBox nor Netflix are even on the radar screen in terms of competition.” - Jim Keyes, CEO, Blockbuster, Dec’08
- 9. The average lifespan of a company listed in the S&P 500 has significantly decreased: • In the 1920’s = 67 years • Today = 15 years - Richard Foster, Yale University
- 10. Source: Yahoo Finance & visualcapitalist.com COMPANY VALUE (2006) VALUE (2017) % Change $14.3B $18.1B $12.4B $24.2B $24.2B $28.4B $51.3B $214.0B $17.5B $0.9B $1.7B $7.7B $7.1B $7.1B $18.4B $31.7B $243.9B $474.4B 94% 90% 38% 71% 71% 41% 38% 15% 2,780% HOW FAST CAN THINGS CHANGE?
- 11. Source: Yahoo Finance & visualcapitalist.com COMPANY VALUE (2006) VALUE (2017) % Change $14.3B $18.1B $12.4B $24.2B $24.2B $28.4B $51.3B $214.0B $17.5B $0.9B $1.7B $7.7B $7.1B $7.1B $18.4B $31.7B $243.9B $474.4B 94% 90% 38% 71% 71% 41% 38% 15% 2,780% HOW FAST CAN THINGS CHANGE? >$675B
- 12. “I’ve got an Idea!” à “I run a $Billion company.” • Youtube • Instagram • Dropbox • Uber/Lyft • Oculus VR • Whatsapp • Snapchat • AirBnb
- 13. “Unexpected Consequences & Business Models” Faster, Cheaper, Computing Power Networks & Sensors Synthetic Biology Robotics 3D Printing VR & AR Artificial Intelligence Blockchain Unexpected Consequences & Biz Models (e.g. Sharing Economy)
- 14. KODAK STOCK SURGES AFTER CRYPTOCURRENCY ANNOUNCEMENT MARKET CAP INCR: $129.8M à $390M+ “The NEW New Kodak Moment”
- 15. H O W C O N F U S I N G I S B L O C K C H A I N , TO K E N S & C RY P TO C U R R E N C I E S ? R E M E M B E R T H I S ?
- 16. What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?
- 18. 01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256 … 1,073,741,824 meters 26X around the Earth! Take 30 steps… EXPONENTIAL
- 19. Moore’s Law 1965 Publication: “# of transistors doubled every year from between 1958 until 1965.” Moore’s Law has lasted 50+ years...
- 20. Integrated Circuits 2016: Intel Core i7-6950X 14.4 Billion Transistors 14 Nanometers 60 GHz ≈ $ . 00000024 1971: Intel 4004 2,300 Transistors 10,000 Nanometers 740 KHz (.00074 GHz) ≈ $1 (1968) 1958: 2 Transistors Transistor Count: Gate Process Length: Speed: Cost Of A Transistor: 2 ½ inch ß 80K (faster) & 4.2M (cheaper) à 330+ Billion-fold improvement (45 yrs)
- 21. 5 Mbytes - $120,000 128 Mbytes - $99 128 Gbytes - $99 1,000x
- 22. Calculations/Secper$1000computer 5 Paradigms of Exponential Computational Growth
- 23. The exponential growth of computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time CalculationsperSecondper$1000 2023 2050
- 24. “Unexpected Consequences & Business Models” Faster, Cheaper, Computing Power Networks & Sensors Synthetic Biology Robotics 3D Printing VR & AR Artificial Intelligence Blockchain Unexpected Consequences & Biz Models (e.g. Sharing Economy)
- 25. Implications of Exponentials (Scarcity à Abundance) (6D’s Framework)
- 27. “Technology can take that which was scarce, and make it Abundant..” Creating Abundance
- 28. 5. Time 6. Money 7. Expertise 8. Resources 1. Energy 2. Water 3. Health 4. Learning Creating Abundance What do you think of as scarce?
- 29. 6D’s Exponential Framework Digitized (Information Tech) 1 Disruptive 3 Dematerialized 4 Demonetize 5 Democratize 6 Deceptive 2
- 31. 20 Years Later, All of These Fit in Your Pocket
- 32. Demonetization
- 33. Classifieds Long DistanceBook StoresTaxi Fleets Research/Libraries Hotel Chains
- 34. Democratization
- 35. African Mobile Phone Growth: > 1B in 2017NumberofMobileHandsets(Millions) 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 0 800 2003 200 400 600 20102005 2007 2009 2011 20142013 2015 700M unique subscribers in 2016 / ~1B Handsets
- 36. Implications of Exponentials (Explosion of Sensors & Networks à Perfect Knowledge)
- 37. 1. Testing in 2019 2. Deployment in 2020 3. 10 - 100 Gbps speeds 4. 100,000 sensors per city block. THE 5G WORLD
- 38. Jacobs / Branson / Wyler “Explosion of Networks…”
- 39. BOEING BUILDING SEVEN “10-TERABIT” SATELLITES FOR LAUNCH IN 2018 & 2019 03b mPOWER O3b = “Other 3 Billion” 30,000 beams
- 40. SPACEX GLOBAL INTERNET @ 1 Gb/sec 4,425 “STARLINK” SATELLITES (in 2019) SpaceX plans additional 7,500 satellites in a lower orbit to boost capacity.
- 41. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 GLOBAL UBIQUITOUS CONNECTIVITY 2010 2017 GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS) 1.8B 3.8B Global Population Internet Users 4.2 BILLION NEW MINDS 2022-2025 8.0B 100 % © 2015 PHD Ventures, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without written permission
- 42. What will 4+ Billion New Minds… create consume discover desire invent …Tens of trillions of annual PP …Greatest period of Innovation (ever)
- 43. It’s not just people being connected… • 2015: 15 Billion (adding: 7 mil /day or 2.5 Billion/year) • 2020: > 50 Billion devices & 1 Trillion Sensors • 2030: > 500 Billion devices & 100 Trillion Sensors Global Connectivity will connect everything, everywhere, always à The Internet of Everything. “A future of perfect knowledge, you can know anything you want, anytime, anywhere....”
- 44. Know Anything, Anytime, Anywhere SATELLITES DRONES AUTONOMOUS CARS AR GLASSES
- 46. DARPA ROBOTIC CHALLENGE (2014)
- 47. BOSTON DYNAMICS’ ATLAS ROBOT (2017)
- 48. ROBOT LAYS 1,000 BRICKS PER HOUR
- 49. BEZOS DRIVES GIANT METHOD-2 MECH ROBOT 12 Feet (4 meters)
- 52. In 1912, traffic counts in New York showed more cars than horses for the first time. 1917 New York City
- 53. UBER SIGNS DEAL TO BUY 24,000 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES FROM VOLVO. Uber to buy Volvo’s autonomous XC90 SUVs between 2019 - 2021. Cars operational in 2019.
- 54. WAYMO BECOMES 1st AUTONOMOUS CAR ON ROAD WITHOUT SAFETY DRIVER (5 Cities) Mountain View, Ca; Austin, Tx; Kirkland, Wa; Phoenix, Az; & Detroit, Mi. All Waymo Passengers automatically Insured at NO extra cost.
- 55. EVERY TESLA IN 2017 TO BE FULLY AUTONOMOUS 8 Cameras, 12 Ultrasonic Sensors feeding the NVIDIA DRIVE™ PX 2 AI computing platform.
- 56. GM AUTONOMOUS CAR WITHOUT STEERING WHEEL OR PEDALS BY 2019 Experts Predict Car Ownership “Dead” by 2025
- 59. LARRY PAGE FUNDING FLYING CARS
- 60. AIRBUS BUILDING ELECTRIC-POWERED FLYING TAXI – TESTING IN 2018 Carries 4 passengers on short flights in dense urban areas, connecting train stations and airports. Piloted to begin, eventually fully autonomous.
- 61. BELL HELICOPTER ENTERS AIR TAXI RACE
- 62. UBERAIR: CLOSER THAN YOU THINK TEAMS WITH NASA TO DESIGN NEW AIR-TRAFFIC-CNTRL
- 63. FAA ESTIMATES 1.6 MIL DRONES FLYING BY 2021
- 64. COMMERCIAL DRONE @ CONSTRUCTION SITES
- 65. DRONES AUTONOMOUSLY INSPECTING PIPELINES
- 66. BOEING’S 500 Lbs HEAVY LIFT DRONE
- 69. ©2017 PHD Ventures, Inc. All right reserved. Do not reproduce without written VIRGIN HYPERLOOP-ONE TEST RUN (240mph)
- 70. • Slide 46: “Right This Minute” – 3D printed house. • Slide 47: MassivIt 3D • Slide 48: LaserTech 65 – Metal 3D printing • Slide 49: Dragon Fly Circuit Board 3D PRINTED BUILDINGS
- 75. DEEPMIND BUILDS ALPHAGO ZERO, AN AI THAT LEARNS FROM SCRATCH
- 76. FACE++ IS INTEGRATING FACIAL RECOGNITION SOFTWARE INTO EVERYDAY LIFE China can identify any of their 1.3 Billion Citizens in less than 3 seconds.
- 77. MEET ‘AVA’, AUTODESK’S VIRTUAL ASSISTANT AN EMPATHIC ‘DIGITAL HUMAN’ (SOUL MACHINES)
- 78. GOOGLE’S A.I. BUILT AN A.I. THAT OUTPERFORMS ANY MADE BY HUMANS The A.I. was 82.7% accurate at predicting images – 1.2% better than any previous results. Was also 4% more efficient than any pre-existing human- built image recognition A.I.’s
- 79. AI MORE ACCURATELY PREDICTS IF DEFENDANTS ARE A FLIGHT RISK Algorithm uses data from hundreds of thousands of NYC cases to predict if defendants should be granted bail, without any racial bias
- 80. FDA APPROVES ALGORITHM TO PREDICT SUDDEN DEATH (RESPIRATORY & HEART ATTACKS).
- 81. AI’s Beat Human Pilot in Air Combat Air Force Colonel Gene Lee - Instructor “ALPHA” running on Raspberry Pi --$35 “Colonel Lee was not successful in winning against ALPHA. Not even once. Indeed, not even when the researchers deliberately handicapped ALPHA’s aircraft, impeding it in terms of speed, turning, missile capability, and sensor use.”
- 83. “Making 100 Years old, the new 60.”
- 84. ILLUMINA: A $100 GENOME IN 1 HOUR
- 85. CRISPR 2.0 CAN CHANGE A SINGLE NUCLEOTIDE, EASILY, ACCURATELY MIT & Harvard have discovered new “single base editing”. 32,000 out of 50,000 diseases are caused by single-point mutations.
- 86. ©2017 PHD Ventures, Inc. All right reserved. Do not reproduce without written SCIENTISTS MAKE FIRST ATTEMPT AT EDITING GENES INSIDE THE BODY Patient Brian Madeux attempting to edit/cure his HUNTER SYNDROME.
- 87. ENGINEERED T-CELL THERAPY Yielding “Extraordinary” success on specific cancers: • 50% of Lymphoma patients went into remission • 80% of non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma • 94% complete remission with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)
- 88. RECHARGING THE REGENERATIVE ENGINE
- 89. STEM CELLS & SENOLYTIC MEDICINES Restoring Stem Cells Rejuvinating Engine Removing Senescent Cells/ Senolytic Medicines LEADING TOWARD ”LONGEVITY ESCAPE VELOCITY”
- 91. 1/3 of people who live to age 50 do not live to age 75 due to age-related chronic diseases * Ages 50 – 74, 2015 in USA; Adapted from Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. http:// www.healthdata.org/results/data-visualizations MALE 39% RISK OF DEATH* CARDIOVASCULAR 30% CANCER 33% FEMALE 24% RISK OF DEATH* CANCER 40% CARDIOVASCULAR 23% NEUROLOGIC 3% CIRRHOSIS 5% DIABETES 7% RESPIRATORY 6% OTHER 16% RESPIRATORY 8% DIABETES 8% CIRRHOSIS 4% NEUROLOGIC 4% OTHER 13%
- 92. 1.76m M 38y 76kg Prediction Your Genome Predicts your Medical Future Example: HLI FACE PROJECT 1.77m M 35y 82kg Subject Dr. Riccardo Sabatini
- 93. Millions/Integrated Health Records Human Genome Full-body MRI Machine Learning/Data Mining Microbiome Metabolomics Phenotype Data Integrate Large-Dimensional Digital Data
- 94. HEALTH NUCLE I CASE STUDY 150GB OVER AN 8 HOUR DAY Collected Heath Data (6 hour visit) 1. WHOLE BODY • MRI (Musculoskeletal/ Lipid Analysis) • MRI (Organ Specific RSI) • In Body Biometrics • Over 70 Laboratory Diagnostic Tests • 3D Forensic Imaging 2. SEQUENCING • Whole Genome • Metabolome • Microbiome 3. BRAIN • NeuroQuant® Brain MRI • 3D T2 Brain MRI • Diffusion MRI • Neurocognitive Testing • Quant. Gait Analysis 4. PULMONOLOGY • Pulmonary Function • Testing 5. CARDIO-Vascular • Echo (2D, 3D, 4D) • ECG • CT Scan (Coronary Calcium Scoring) • 2 Week Ambulatory Rhythm Testing 2 1 3 4 5 HEALTH NUCLEUS DATA CAPTURE
- 95. Results in the first 1200 Patients • 1% have undetected brain Aneurysms • 2% have new undetected Tumors • 2.5% of men (>60 yo) have Prostate Cancer • 19% have moderate/severe Atherosclerosis • 34% have Liver Fat >4% • 84% Genetic carriers for Recessive disease • 8% have a dominant genetic mutation; 50% are phenotypically expressed. HLI – HEALTH NUCLEUS (HNX) VISIT • 3 Hours • San Diego (other locations next year) • $4,950 (1st Visit) • $2,950 (Annual Visit thereafter) Interested?: www.HealthNucleusVIP.com
- 96. VISIONEERS
- 99. • $10 million purse • Privately funded teams • 3 person crew • 100 km altitude • Two flights within 2 weeks
- 100. ARCA Space Transport Pablo DeLeonStarChaser Scaled Composites DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane Armadillo Aerospace WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE • 26 Teams • From 7 Nations • Spending > $100 million
- 101. October 4th, 2004 Mojave Desert
- 102. History Was Made
- 103. Board of Trustees & Benefactors LARRY PAGE, CEO, Google ELON MUSK CEO, Tesla & SpaceX RAY KURZWEIL Inventor & Futurist Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARI Astronaut & CEO DR. CRAIG VENTER, Genetic Pioneer RATAN TATA Chairman of Tata Group JIM GIANOPULOS Chairman/CEO, FOX JAMES CAMERON Filmmaker and explorer Jim Gianopulos Jim Cameron WENDY SCHMIDT Schmidt Family Fndtn Wendy Schmidt DEAN KAMEN, CEO, DEKA Research
- 104. PRIZE SUMMARY AWARDED & ACTIVE $150M UNDER DEVELOPMENT $200M+
- 105. Musk vs. Bezos
- 108. SPACEX FALCON HEAVY TO HAVE MAIDEN LAUNCH IN EARLY 2018 World’s most powerful rocket (by a factor of 2). 5,000,000 pounds of thrust. Falcon Heavy will send payloads to Mars and beyond.
- 111. 2024 PRIVATE HUMAN LANDING ON MARS Int’l Astronautical Congress Briefing: Sept
- 113. “Why are you so positive about the future? Don’t you watch the news?” ABUNDANCE: The Future Is Better Than You Think
- 114. (1) Global Income (2) Lifespan (3) Food (4) Energy (5) Transportation (6) Communications (1) Global Income (2) Lifespan (3) Food (4) Energy (5) Transportation (6) Communications Evidence for Abundance
- 115. Why do some people think that the world is worse today? We Romanticize the Past
- 116. Let’s Look at the Reality of Humanity’s History • Famine • Plague • War
- 117. Famine in the Past Resulting from bad weather & ruined Harvests • France in 1692 – 1694 • ~2.8 million French died from starvation (15% of the population)
- 118. Plague in the Past Black Death ravages Asia, Europe, & N. America • Black Death in the 1330’s • 40% of England wiped out • 200 Million killed globally
- 119. War in the Past Millions killed by violence – Peace seen as temporary • Human violence caused 15% of deaths in ancient agricultural societies • ~100x decrease in homicides in Europe between 1200 – 2000 AD
- 120. Let’s Look at More Evidence For Abundance
- 121. % OF WORLD POP. LIVING IN EXTREME POVERTY (1820 – 2015) Source: World Poverty in Absolute numbers, Max Roser, World Bank People Living in Extreme Poverty Share of people living in extreme poverty Share of people not in extreme poverty 0% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 90% 10% 30% 50% 70% 1880 19401820 19001840 1860 1920 1960 20151980 2000
- 122. LITERATE AND ILLITERATE WORLD POPULATION (1800 – 2014) Source: Literate World Population (Our World in Data based on OECD & UNESCO) % Literate Population World - Literate World Population World - Illiterate World Population 0% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 90% 10% 30% 50% 70% %ofPopulation 1800 1880 19401820 19001840 1860 1920 1960 20141980 2000
- 123. GLOBAL VACCINATION PERCENTAGE (DPT3) (1980 – 2015) Source: https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination/ 0% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 90% 10% 30% 50% 70% 1980 2000 20151985 20051990 1995 2010 World - Vaccinated World - Not vaccinated Absolute Relative
- 124. GLOBAL CHILD MORTALITY – FIRST 5 YEARS (1800 – 2015) Source: Gapminder and World Bank % Mortality Rate for Children under 5 0% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 90% 10% 30% 50% 70% 1800 1880 19401820 19001840 1860 1920 1960 20151980 2000 World - Share dying in first 5 years World - Share surviving first 5 years of life
- 125. Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Series B-148; and Health, United States, 1998, Table 45. MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES Deathsper1,000LiveBirths 1900 2000 0 900 1950 19801920 300 600 1940 19701910 1960 19901930
- 126. GLOBAL AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY (1543 – 2011) Source: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy/ Lifeexpectancyatbirth(inyears) 0 50 10 20 30 40 80 60 70 1543 1700 1800 1900 20111600 Canada Ethiopia Germany India Japan South Korea United Kingdom United States
- 127. Source: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Analitiytical-Figures/htm/fig_9.htm NumberofCountries 1950 1990 2010 2030 2090 0 200 1970 50 100 150 2050 2070 6+ 5.0 – 5.9 4.0 – 4.9 3.0 – 3.9 2.1 – 2.9 Under 2.1 GLOBAL REDUCTION IN CHILDREN PER FAMILY
- 128. Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Deaths/100MillionMilesTraveled 1900 1920 1940 1960 2010 0 30 1910 15 20 25 1980 20001930 1950 1970 1990 5 10 Automobile Airline AUTOMOBILE & AIRLINE FATALITY RATES
- 129. DeathRateper100,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 50 20 30 40 10 Flood Storm Epidemic Earthquake Drought GLOBAL DEATH RATE FROM NATURAL CATASTROPHES
- 130. Source: Human Security Report Project, The Peace Research Institute of Oslo World-WideBattleDeaths 0 25 5 10 15 20 Colonial Interstate Civil Civil (with foreign intervention) THE WANING OF WAR 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
- 132. Why? Why now? Exponential Growth of Technologies & Tools
- 133. If you’d like a copy of my PPT slides... www.diamandis.com/slides
- 134. www.SingularityU.org www.xprize.org www.Diamandis.com For a copy of these slides: www.diamandis.com/slides