Relative Age Effect in Hockey

RODNEY HART APRIL 9, 2015 PREPARED FOR DATA SCIENCE COURSE, DATBOS05
GOING PRO:
WHY SKILL MAY HAVE
NOTHING TO DO WITH IT
an analysis of the relative age effect
along with the impact of relative height

Origins.head()
10,000 HOUR RULE
KEY DETERMINANT OF SUCCESS

10,000Hours.describe()
Key to success in any field is, to a large
extent, a matter of practicing a specific
task for a total of around 10,000 hours.

…all early birthdays?
RELATIVE
AGE
EFFECT
NEW TERM COINED
CHA-CHING, ROGER BARNSLEY

Relative Age Effect,Visualized
9 years,
11 months,
364 days
9 years,
0 months,
0 days
9 years,
6 months,
0 days

BEST TEAMS | BEST COACHING | BEST COMPETITION
BUILDING 10,000 HOURS

LESSER TEAMS | CHOOSE A DIFFERENT HOBBY?
BUILDING 10,000 HOURS

How do we test this?
TYPICALLY BIRTHS CORRELATE TO DAYS IN MONTH

Hockey Birth Distributions
ARE PULLED TOWARD AGE CUTOFF DATE

Okay, so what’s the cutoff?
1
JANUARY
OLYMPIC QUALIFICATIONS ARE JANUARY 1
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Just get to the data already…

First, a shout-out to Stu…
ANIMATION DOESN’T WORK
IN THIS SLIDE DECKVERSION

Making the data usable…
COUNTRYHEIGHTBIRTHDATE
1/26/1961
26
convert to

Making the data usable…
COUNTRYHEIGHTBIRTHDATE
1/26/1961
26
convert to
JAN
26
1961
26
WITH THE DATA CLEANED
TIME FOR EXAMINATION

Birthdate Analysis | life insurance
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
REGULAR

-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
HOCKEY

-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
REGULAR HOCKEY
&

-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
REGULAR HOCKEY
&
ANIMATION DOESN’T WORK
IN THIS SLIDE DECKVERSION

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
REGULAR HOCKEY
&

Average Birthdate
158
“June 7”
Average Birthdate
185
“July 4”
&

Average Birthdate
158
“June 7”
Average Birthdate
(27)
days less than average
&

Average Birthdate
158
“June 7”
Average Birthdate
(14.3%)
lower than average
&

Most Common Birthdate
1
“January 1”
227
“August 15”
&

0.70%
“January 1”
0.32%
“August 15”
&

Least Common Birthdate
349
“December 15”
360
“December 26”
&

0.11%
“December 15”
0.23%
“December 26”
&

Does the effect exist?
MEAN SHIFTED BY 14%

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
MOSTLY ALIGN TO
NUMBER OF DAYS÷MONTH
&

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
HOCKEY DISPLAYS AN
OBVIOUS DOWNWARD TREND
&

Isn’t this just data analysis?
BUT…

Relative Age Effect, Rethought
9 years,
11 months,
364 days
9 years,
0 months,
0 days
9 years,
6 months,
0 days

Relative Height Effect?
COLLEGE FRESHMEN
VS
NHL
1/26/1961
26
convert to
11,739
NHL HEIGHTS
4,271
COLLEGE HEIGHTS
IFYOU WERE UNLUCKY
BY BIRTH DAY,WEREYOU
LUCKY IN GENETICS?

Height Analysis | life insurance
71.0
71.5
72.0
72.5
73.0
&

Height Analysis | life insurance
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25

November & December
PLAYERS
(821)
less players than average
November & December
HEIGHT
(211”)
shorter than average

November & December
PLAYERS
(5%)
November & December
HEIGHT
(0.03%)

November & December
PLAYERS
(228)
November & December
HEIGHT
(211”)

November & December
PLAYERS
(5%)
November & December
HEIGHT
0.005%
taller than average

Wrapping Up
RELATIVE HEIGHT EFFECTRELATIVE AGE EFFECT
26

Wrapping Up
26
PROVEN

Wrapping Up
26
PROVEN MAYBE?

Wrapping Up
26
YOU ARE LUCKY
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
PROVEN MAYBE?

…who is defying the odds?
WHAT ARE HIS CHARACTERISTICS?

SCOTT NICHOL
365 5’8” (16/22)

SCOTT NICHOL
Scott was a player who had to work hard for
everything in his career, and he will bring
energy, enthusiasm and work ethic to this job.
365 5’8” (16/22)

Areas for Future Research
COUNTRY DATAHEIGHT RESEARCHYOUTH HOCKEY DATA
1/26/1961
26
convert to

-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
REGULAR HOCKEY
&

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
COLLEGE HOCKEY
&

Relative Age Effect in Hockey

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

En vedette

En vedette (20)

Relative Age Effect in Hockey