These slides were presented at the SEMrush webinar "Predict How Your PPC Campaigns Will Be Affected by COVID19". Video replay and transcript are available at https://www.semrush.com/webinars/predict-how-your-ppc-campaigns-will-be-affected-by-covid19/

1. Predict How Your PPC
Campaigns Will be
Affected by COVID19

2. Predict How Your PPC
Campaigns Will be
Affected by COVID19
Estimate

3. 1. Covid19 Impact
2. Scripts to assess & manage the impact of Covid19 on your
campaigns
3. Google and Facebook Credits
Agenda

4. Who am I?

5. Advisor for Google’s own
equity fund Capital G.
Who am I…
Gianluca
Voted 2nd Most Influential
PPC Person in 2019.
Binelli

6. We’re the best* scientific performance marketing agency
Who is Booster Box...
* we are the best according to our mums and now that we’ve won an award as the Best small PPC agency in Europe, it’s official: mums are always right.
That’s quite a mouthful, but it’s just a way to say that we love
numbers and the scientific method.
We have been running wildly successful international Paid
and Brand Media Campaigns since July of 2016

7. COVID19 Impact

8. ….at global level
The COVID-19 will have severe economic
consequences. But if matched by aggressive action from
fiscal and monetary authorities, the economic fallout will
probably be manageable.
UBS - Covid-19: Facts & Insights: Coronavirus impacts on global economy and on automotive industry

9. Economic impact
UBS - Covid-19: Facts & Insights: Coronavirus impacts on global economy and on automotive industry

10. Different impacts by vertical
● A spike in sales for online groceries (Food and Beverages)
● Generally speaking a slow down of most ecommerce consumer products
(particularly fashion, beauty and travel)
● We do not have enough data on lead gen for consumers
● B2B remained for the moment relatively unimpacted

11. User behavior has changed
1) Switch back from mobile to
desktop across industries
2) CPCs and CRs have been
heavily fluctuating, generally
cheaper

12. Operational suggestions
1. As delivery is still guaranteed for most ecommerces, we are enforcing that
message with new extensions and on landing pages
2. We observed a strong sense of community towards what could represent an
opportunity to build up a positive message

13. Covid19 Impact in Italy

14. Assess the impact of
Covid19 on your campaigns

15. A parallel universe with the
Synthetic Control Group

16. Compare 2 worlds
Imagine building a parallel universe where you can compare the
impact Covid-19 has had on the global economy with a universe
where Covid-19 never reared its ugly head.
Leveraging the CausalImpact R package https://arxiv.org/pdf/1506.00356.pdf

17. Example
● We are working with an international client who is active in many
European countries (UK, Germany, Italy, France, etc.)
● We want to check whether Italy’s lockdown has had an effect on
sales. How?
● The CausalImpact package will use the other European
countries’ sales time-series and, by taking a weighted average of
those countries, create the counterfactual, an estimation of Italy’s
“perfect twin”

18. How does it work?
Step 1: Input your Data (example here)
Step 2: Run the Script
We strongly suggest you download RStudio (link here)
Step 3: Analyze the script output
You can find a raw R script to do this here

19. How does it work?
Main time-series (bold line) and the predicted twin
behaviour
Difference between the actual time-series and the
counterfactual
The cumulative effect of the intervention on sales

20. How to manage
geographical restrictions
affecting shipments

21. Some shipment
services have
difficulties
delivering in
certain areas.
The Issue:
We have prepared a
Google Ads script to
exclude specific
locations or reduce the
bid on certain areas
through Proximity
targeting
The Solution:

22. How the Script Works
● Google Ads does not always allow targeting by Zip code
● Our script identifies the geographical areas to exclude starting from a predefined
list of zip codes
● In this way it’s possible to optimize the campaigns decreasing the budget on the
preset list of zip codes

23. How the Script Works
Google Ads does not always allow targeting by zip code
The script executes 2 different actions:
● If the zip code is not present in the locations defined by Google, the
specific location will be totally
● If the zip code is not present among the locations defined by Google,
a bid adjustment of -90% is going to be applied on a proxy of the zip
code area that has been identified

24. Output of the Script
● The red zones are the
excluded locations
● The blue areas are those
identified through Proximity
Targeting (- 90% bid
adjustment)

25. 1. Implementation
● Create a copy of this spreadsheet and add the Zip Codes you want to exclude
● Add the 'EXCLUDED_COVID19' Label to the campaigns you want to focus
● Copy and paste the Script within GAds and modify the relevant parts
How to Install the Script

26. 2. Reverse Button
In order to reverse back to the pre-COVID19 period and get rid of all the exclusions
added by the script, simply delete all the Zip Codes in the spreadsheet and launch
the script.
How to Install the Script

27. 3. Zip Codes Table (here)
● The re-elaboration of the script allowed us to rebuild an omni-comprehensive
table of the Italian Zip Codes and their match with Area in Square kilometers
and geographic coordinates.
● Where possible we also locate the coordinates for the multi Zip code
municipalities. If not possible, that Zip Code will be considered valid for the
entire municipality.
How to Install the Script

28. ● The script currently works in italy only. This is open source. You are welcome to
scale it further.
● Max 500 Proximity targeting can be applied
● Not possible to exclude the zip codes identified through Proximity Targeting.
That’s why a 90% bid reduction is applied
Script Limitations

29. How Google and Facebook
are supporting businesses

30. ● $340 million in ad credits to SMB customers worldwide
● Future ad spend across Google Ads platforms until the end of December 2020
● Who is eligible? SMBs who have spent with a GAds account in ten out of
twelve months of 2019, and in January and/or February of 2020, advertising
directly with Google or through a partner.
More info here
Google Ads Credit

31. ● $100 million dollars in cash grants and ad credits
● Only available in USA so far but will be extended worldwide
● Criteria for eligibility
● Have between 2 and 50 employees
● Have been in business for over a year
● Have experienced challenges from COVID-19
● Be in or near a location where Facebook operates
More info here
Facebook Small Business
Grants Program

32. Predict How Your PPC
Campaigns Will be
Affected by COVID19
Estimate