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Silicon Valley Bank Cleantech Practice


The Advanced Biofuel and
Biochemical Overview
June 2012
Table of Contents

 I.     Introduction                                                     III. The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals (Cont.)
        I.     Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Macro Observations    3        V.    Liquid Demand Growth from Non-OECD Countries                  36

        II.    Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Micro Observations    4        VI. Biofuels for Transportation                                     38

        III.   The Cleantech Ecosystem                              5        VII. Increasing Marginal Cost of Production                         39

        IV.    Market Snapshot: Global Ethanol Production           6        VIII. Oil Market Price and Saudi Breakeven Threshold                42

        V.     Market Snapshot: Global Biodiesel Production         7        IX. U.S. Renewable Fuel Standards                                   43
               Market Snapshot: Ethanol and Biodiesel Production             X.    Biofuel Blending Mandates by Country                          46
        VI.                                                         8
               Landscape in the U.S.
        VII. Market Snapshot: Global Biochemical Production         9        XI. Cellulosic Ethanol Pricing Model                                47

 II.    Biofuels/Biochemicals Overview                                   IV. Biofuel/Biochemicals Landscape

        I.     What are Biofuels/Biochemicals?                     11        I.    Advanced Biofuel and Biochemicals Value Chain                 49

        II.    Types of Biofuels                                   15    V. Where Are They in Development?
        III.   Biofuel Feedstocks                                  16        I.    Investments in Biofuels/Biochemicals                          52

        IV.    Comparative Yields                                  18        II.   Global Players – Milestone Update                             54

        V.     Petroleum Replacement Overview                      21        III. Biofuel/Biochemical IPOs in Pipeline                           56

        VI.    Conversion Technologies                             22        IV. Strategic Partnerships                                          57

                                                                             V.    Projects to Watch in 2012–2013                                58
 III.   The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals
                                                                         VI. Appendix                                                            61
        I.     Compelling Market Opportunity                       28
                                                                        VII. Selected Due Diligence Questions                                    69
        II.    Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth             29
                                                                        VIII. Silicon Valley Bank Cleantech Team                                 70
        III.   Liquid Demand Statistics                            32

        IV.    Energy Market Growth                                34



                                                                                                               The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 2
Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Macro Observations

OBSERVATIONS

• Multiple very large and growing markets
   — Total markets will top $1+ trillion. Beyond the well-known fossil-fuel replacement markets is growing demand for non-fuel products like
     food supplements, personal care products, and packaging.

• Positive supply/demand dynamics around crude
   — The fundamental underlying demand is exacerbated by oil exporting countries‘ economic reliance on oil revenue. Meanwhile, the cost of
     crude production continues to increase. Biofuels/biochemicals will play an increasingly important role to fill that need.

• Demand drivers – mandates and markets
   — Mandate: Primarily for fuels, government mandated goals proliferate with varying degrees of adherence and enforcement. Subsidies of
     all types remain important in attracting capital and shifts in policy could alter business plan direction between fuels or chemicals.
   — Markets: Growing economic justifications are intersecting with other market demand factors. For example, the U..S Navy‘s goal of 50%
     energy consumption from alternative sources by 2020 or the Air Force‘s initiative to acquire 50% of aviation fuel from alternative blends
     by 2016 are policy influencers that also have purchasing power.

• The role of strategic corporate investors
  — Always important, corporates from a variety of industries (and led by big energy, chemicals/materials, and consumer products) have
     become critical parties in the development and scale-up of the sector. Taking multiple forms of straight investment, joint venture, and
     collaboration, investors search for innovation, growth, and information.

• Commodity markets
   — Fuels in particular are ultimately commodities. Without policy enhancements, the impact of commodity cycles will continue to challenge
     scaling of new technologies.

• Business life cycle
   — While the underlying trends and fundamentals may be inexorable, development of the industry and market dynamics is a very long term
     process and investment cycle.




                                                                TABLE OF CONTENTS                                  The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 3
Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Micro Observations

OBSERVATIONS

• Platform technologies
   — Venture investors and companies favor platforms where multiple markets can be addressed. Single product fuel companies like ethanol
      are challenged. The platform companies may ultimately seek to enter fuel markets but may opt to defer that step in order to access
      higher margin, less commoditized markets first.

• Feedstock flexibility
   — Access to multiple feedstock types and sources is critical to scaling facilities, particularly in margin constrained markets where supply
     and logistics can have great impact.

• The scale-up conundrum
   — Given the capital required to achieve economies, and the fact that most investors want both scale and capital efficiency, the choice
     between build/own and licensing is becoming acute. To truly reach scale requires enormous financing. The conundrum is how to get
     licensees without experience at scale. And what scale is necessary to attract the right investors? Does the project need to demonstrate
     revenue scale, cash flow positive, or just output?

• Understand the value chain
   — In addition to sources and location of feedstock, proximity to off take and associated logistical costs are important for certain markets like
     ethanol. In concert with the scale-up conundrum above, are these links in the value chain of a size to support large facilities?
     Additionally, to attract investors companies must demonstrate the ability to reduce costs of collection, distillation, and extraction through
     operational or technological advances.

• Milestone sensitivity
   — At these development stages, sensitivity around scale-up milestones is palpable. Whether due to supply or technical aspects, such
      delays in any project are not unusual but there seems to be heightened sensitivity here that often results in further delays or hurdles to
      funding.

• Financing strategy
   — Financing strategies, with minimal reliance on government support, must be devised at the outset. Today this likely means earlier and
      more active role from strategic investors which may limit some flexibility. It also means determining the license/own decision. IPOs really
      are not exits but financing events much like that seen in the biotech sector. Some combination of strategic investor with access to public
      markets may be necessary to complete the demo and first commercial funding challenge.



                                                                 TABLE OF CONTENTS                                   The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 4
The Cleantech Ecosystem

                                                                         Materials and Manufacturing
                                                                               Materials & Manufacturing




                                                                                                                          Recycling &
                               Energy                                         Energy                   Energy                                    Agriculture, Air &
                                                   Energy Storage                                                           Waste
                              Generation                                     Efficiency            Infrastructure                                     Water
                                                                                                                          Management
                         •   Alternative fuels   • Batteries            • Building materials     • Smart Grid          • Waste to energy        • Agriculture
                         •   Biomass             • Fuel Cells           • Lighting                 Hardware            • Waste                  • Air
                         •   Solar / Thermal     • Utility Scale grid   • Demand response        • Smart meters          repurposing            • Water
                         •   Wind                  storage                systems                • Transmission
                         •   Hydro                                      • Energy
                                                                          Management

                         • Improved and           • Improved power       • Reduced               • Reduction in         • Economic in            • Organic
                           economical               reliability            operating costs         wastage                nature - well-           pesticides /
  Application Benefits




                           source of              • Intermittency        • Lower                 • Reduce outage          run recycling            fertilizers
                           energy                   Management             maintenance             frequency /            programs cost          • Water
                         • Less pressure          • Increased              costs                   duration               less to operate          purification
                           on non-                  cycles/longer        • Extended              • Reduce                 than waste             • Water
                           renewable                storage                equipment lives         distribution loss      collection and           remediation
                           resources (oil                                                                                 landfilling
                                                  • Efficiency                                                                                   • Purification
                           and gas)
                                                                                                                                                 • Management
                         • Energy security
                         • Grid/ Off Grid


                                                                                          Residential
  End User




                                                                                          Commercial

                                                                             Industrial

                                                                             Utilities, Government and Others



                                                                                   TABLE OF CONTENTS                                        The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 5
Market Snapshot: Global Ethanol Production


Top Five Countries (2010) Ethanol Production (millions of gallons/year) 1




   The Global Renewable
   Fuels Alliance (GRFA)
   forecasts ethanol
   production to hit 88.7
   billion litres in 2011




Source: 1NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011.
Note: Gallons to Liters conversion ratio at 1:3.78.


                                                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS   The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 6
Market Snapshot: Global Biodiesel Production


Top Five Countries (2010) Biodiesel Production (millions of gallons) 1




Source: 1NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011.
Note: Gallons to Liters conversion ratio at 1:3.78.


                                                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS   The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 7
Market Snapshot: Ethanol and Biodiesel Production Landscape in the U.S.


U.S. Ethanol Production1                                                              U.S. Alternative Fueling Stations2




     • Corn ethanol production continues to expand rapidly in the U.S. Between 2000 and 2010, production increased nearly 8x
     • Ethanol production grew nearly 19% in 2010 to reach 13,000 million gallons per year
     • Ethanol has steadily increased its percentage of the overall gasoline pool, and was 9.4% in 2010
     • In 2010, there were 1,424,878 ethanol (E85) fueled vehicles on the road in the U.S and 7,149 alternative fueling stations in the U.S.
     • Biodiesel has expanded from a relatively small production base in 2000, to a total U.S. production of 315 million gallons in 2010.
       However, biodiesel is still a small percentage of the alternative fuel pool in the U.S., as over 40x more ethanol was produced in 2010
     • Biodiesel production in the U.S. in 2010 is 63x what it was in 2001




Source: 1,2NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011.


                                                                          TABLE OF CONTENTS                                The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 8
Market Snapshot: Global Biochemical Production


Overview of Biochemicals                                                                                                                      Specialty Biochemicals
 Name                    Characteristics                                            Uses

 Adhesives               Liquid or semi-liquid compound that bonds items together   Paper products, labeling, packaging, plastic bags,                                                     Polymers
                         via drying, heat or pressure                               stamps, lamination                                              Consumer          Lubricants
                                                                                                                                                                                             and
                                                                                                                                                    Products         and Additives
 Cationic Surfactants    Organic compound consisting of phospholipids and           Soaps, detergents, shampoos, toothpastes                                                               Coatings
                         proteins with positively charged heads that lower the
                         surface tension between liquids and other surfaces

 Geraniol                Clear to pale yellow that is insoluble in water            Commonly used in perfumes or fruit flavoring

 Industrial Lubricants   Oil-based compound that reduces friction between moving    Used in operation of manufacturing, mining and                  4.6 MM             4.0 MM              73.0 MM
                         surfaces                                                   transportation equipment and more                               tonnes/yr          tonnes/yr           tonnes/yr
 Linalool                Naturally occurring alcohol found in flowers and spice     Scents for perfumes and cleaning agents, insecticides,
                         plants                                                     used to make Vitamin E

 Nonionic Surfactant     Organic compound consisting of phospholipids and           Lower the surface tension of liquids or between liquids       • Specialty        • Base oils        Building blocks for
                         proteins with non-charged heads                            and another surface
                                                                                                                                                    surfactants      • Fuel additives   • Specialty
 O2 Scavenger            Compounds that inhibit oxidation or other molecules        Used to prevent the corrosion metal by oxygen                 • Soy petrolatum                        polymideds,
 Plasticizer             Additives that increase the workability, flexibility and   Used for plastics, concrete and dry wall                      • Performance                           polyols, polyesters
                         fluidity of a substance allowing for easier changing of                                                                    waxes                               • Epoxies and
                         shape
                                                                                                                                                  • Candles                               polyurethanes
 Specialty Emollients    Lipids that attract water and retain moisture              Used in lotions and make-ups to prevent dry skin                                                    • Coatings and
 Squalane                Saturated form of squalene making it less susceptible to   Used in personal care products such as moisturizers
                                                                                                                                                                                          cross linkers
                         oxidation




• Like the biofuels industry, the biochemical industry uses bioprocesses and biomass to replace petroleum as the important building block for a
  number of products including plastics, lubricants, waxes and cosmetics.
• According to the American Chemistry Council dated July 2011, the market size of the global chemical industry (Basic Chemicals, Intermediate
  Chemicals, Finished Chemical Products)1 was approximately $3.0 trillion as of July 2011
• Specialty chemicals compete more on desired effect than cost and as a result present less price‐sensitive, higher ASP markets for renewable
  chemical firms to target
• In the U.S. ~200,000 barrels of oil per day are required to fulfill demand for plastic packaging


Source: Elevance Renewable Sciences Filings.

Note: 1Basic Chemicals include Butadiene, Propylene, Ethylene, Benzene; Intermediate Chemicals include Butanediol, Acrylic acid, Ethlyene glycol; Finished Products include
      BR, PBT, SBR, Polyacrylics, PE, PET, Nylon-6.


                                                                                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS                                               The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 9
Biofuels/Biochemicals Overview




                   TABLE OF CONTENTS   The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 10
What are Biofuels/Biochemicals? – Summary


• The Biofuels and Biochemicals industry refers to the set of companies focused on developing fuels and chemicals from Biomass rather than
  from fossil fuels

• In 2010, approximately 700 million barrels of biofuels were produced globally. Over 45% of this was corn‐based ethanol in the U.S. and
  >25% produced was sugarcane‐based ethanol in Brazil

• Biofuels/ Biochemicals are distinguished as either first , second or third generation. Focus is more on second generation and beyond as first
  generation is a mature technology
   — Corn and sugarcane will continue to be the most abundant feedstock for biofuels and biochemicals in the near term
   — Companies utilizing food‐competitive feedstock (e.g., corn, soy, wheat) face higher price volatility and potential for societal push‐back
   — Cellulosic feedstock does not face the ―food‐vs.‐fuel‖ argument but requires more specialized and expensive enzymes that are yet to be
      completely commercialized
   — Waste is a unique feedstock and companies that can successfully convert the biomass to fuels and chemicals will benefit significantly
   — ―Energy‐dedicated‖ crops are emerging and will be vital to the growth of cellulosic biofuel and biochemical production
   — Algae offer the highest oil yields of any biofuel feedstock, but challenges around cost have created challenges for commercial use

• Due to the importance of feedstock to the overall value chain, several companies are developing business models and technologies focused
  on the ―upstream‖ segment of the value chain

• Numerous conversion technologies exist each with distinct advantages and disadvantages

• The United States and Brazil currently produce and consume the vast proportion of global biofuels due to size of ethanol industries, and is
  expected to remain the most important countries for biofuel production/consumption in the near‐term

• Biofuel and Biochemical companies are aiming to compete in large established markets in fuels and specialty chemicals




                                                                TABLE OF CONTENTS                                 The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 11
What are Biofuels/Biochemicals?


• A biofuel/ biochemical is a product made from biomass – organic material with stored chemical energy.                                           While traditional
  Biofuels/Biochemicals can be made from plant materials such as sugarcane, corn, wheat, vegetable oils,
                                                                                                                                                  biomass1 constitutes an
  agriculture residues, grass, wood and algae.
                                                                                                                                                  important part of the
• Biofuels/Biochemicals currently comprise only a small part of today‘s global energy consumption. Liquid                                         energy mix, so far
  biofuels accounted for a modest 2.7% of global road-transport fuels in 2010 and only 0.6% of the global                                         modern biomass2 use
  final energy consumption. However, by 2030, this is forecast to increase to 9%, equivalent to 6.5 million                                       makes up only a small
  barrels of oil a day.                                                                                                                           share of total global
                                                                                                                                                  energy consumption
• Renewable energy overall (bio-energy,hydro, solar, etc) represented 16.0% of total energy demand in 2010.


Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2010

                                                                                                                  Wind/Solar/Biomass/Geothermal Power Generation 0.7%
                                                              Nuclear 2.8%
                                                                                                                     Transport Biofuels 0.6%
                                                                                                                           Biomass/Solar/Geothermal/
                                                                                                                           Hot Water/Heating 1.5%

                                                                                                                                                  Several economical,
                                                                          Renewable 16.2%                                                         political, technological,
        Fossil
                                                                                                                                                  and environmental
        Fuels 81%                                                                                              16.2%
                                                                                                                                                  factors will drive growth
                                                                                                                                                  in the Biofuels/
                                                                                                                                                  Chemicals industry

                                                                                                                             Hydropower 3.4%
                                                                                                       Traditional
                                                                                                       Biomass 10%

Source: Renewables 2011, Global Status Report.
Note: 1Traditional biomass means unprocessed biomass, including agricultural waste, forest products waste, collected fuel wood, and animal dung, that is burned in stoves or
      furnaces to provide heat energy for cooking, heating, and agricultural and industrial processing, typically in rural areas.2Modern bioenergy comprises biofuels for transport,
      and processed biomass for heat and electricity production.


                                                                                TABLE OF CONTENTS                                             The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 12
Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth Rates


Global Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuels Production, 2005–2010


                                                            Biodiesel production                       38%
                                                                                      7%
      In 2010, approximately                                 Ethanol production                 23%                                  Year-end 2005-2010
                                                                                            17%                                      (5-year Period)
      700 million barrels of                                                                 16%
                                                         Solar hot water/heating            16%
      biofuels were produced.                                                                                                        2010
                                                                                    3%
      Over 45% of this was                                        Hyderopower       3%
      corn‐based ethanol in                                  Geothermal power
                                                                                    4%
                                                                                    3%
      the U.S. and >25%                                                                         25%
      produced was                          Concentrating Solar Thermal Power                                                  77%
      sugarcane‐based                                               Wind Power                   27%
                                                                                                25%
      ethanol in Brazil
                                                  Solar PV(grid -connected only)                                    60%
                                                                                                                                  81%
                                                                                                             49%
                                                                       Solar PV                                             72%



• Global energy consumption rebounded strongly in 2010 after an overall downturn in 2009, with annual growth of 5.4%. Renewable energy, which had no
  downturn in 2009, continued its strong growth in 2010 as well.
• During the period from the end of 2005 through 2010, total global capacity of many renewable energy technologies – including solar photovoltaic (PV), wind
  concentrating solar power (CSP), solar water heating systems, and biofuels – grew at average rates ranging from around 15% to nearly 50% annually.
• Solar PV increased the fastest of all renewables technologies during this period, followed by biodiesel and wind. For solar power technologies, growth
  accelerated during 2010 relative to the previous four years.
• At the same time, growth in total capacity of wind power held steady in 2010, and the growth rates of biofuels have declined in recent years, although ethanol
  was up again in 2010.
• Hydropower, biomass power and heat, and geothermal heat and power are growing at more ordinary rates of 3–9% per year, making them more comparable
  with global growth rates for fossil fuels (1–4%, although higher in some developing countries). In several countries, however, the growth in these renewable
  technologies far exceeds the global average.

Source: 1Renewables 2011, Global Status Report.


                                                                            TABLE OF CONTENTS                                The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 13
Main Feedstock Sources


                                                                                    Crops used for Biofuels/Biochemicals
Feedstock is typically the largest component of biofuel &
biochemical production cost. Feedstock cost is estimated to
represent >30%‐50% of the operating costs of most projects.
The main sources of biofuels are:
1. Oil-seed crops: Oil –seed crops include soybean, rapeseed and
   sunflower. These go through a process called ―transesterification‖ and
   the oils of these oilseeds are converted into methyl esters. Methyl
   esters are liquid fuel that can either be blended with petro-diesel or
   used as pure biodiesel.
2. Grains, cereals and starches: These come from corn, wheat, sugar
   cane, sugar beet and cassava, which undergo a fermentation process
                                                                                    Biofuel Vehicle and Pumps
   to produce bio-ethanol.
3. Non oilseed crops: Oil from the Jatropha fruit shows most promise.
   The fruit is poisonous, so it is not affected by the ―food-or-fuel‖ tug of
   war; and it grows well on arid soils which means it does not need felling
   of forests. It is very resilient and needs less fertilizer and it can be
   developed into plantations like any oilseed crop.
4. Organic waste: Waste cooking oil, animal manure and household
   waste. Waste cooking oils can be converted into biodiesel while the rest
   are converted to biogas methane.
5. Cellulosic materials: These are grasses, crop waste, municipal waste
   and wood chips that are converted to ethanol. The conversion process
   is more complex than the two process aforementioned. There is also
   the option of converting these to gases such as methane or hydrogen
   for vehicle use or to power generators.


Source: Broker Research and websites.


                                                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS                              The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 14
Types of Biofuels


Biofuels/Biochemicals are
distinguished as either first, second
or third generation.

Most of the Biofuels today come from
corn-based ethanol and sugar-based                            First generation: Commercially produced using conventional technology. The basic feedstock are seeds, grains, or whole plants
ethanol.                                                      from crops such as corn, sugar cane, rapeseed, wheat, sunflower seeds or oil palm. These plants were originally selected as food or
                                                              fodder and most are still mainly used to feed people. The most common first-generation biofuels are bioethanol (currently over 80%
                                                              of liquid biofuels production by energy content), followed by biodiesel, vegetable oil, and biogas.
The current debate over biofuels/
biochemicals produced from food
                                                                                                Second generation: Produced from a variety of non-food sources. These include waste biomass,
crops has pinned a lot of hope on                                                               the stalks of wheat, corn stover, wood, and special energy or biomass crops (e.g. Miscanthus).
                                                                                                Second-generation biofuels/biochemicals use biomass to liquid (BTL) technology, by
"2nd-generation processes"                                                                      thermochemical conversion (mainly to produce biodiesel) or fermentation (e.g. to produce
produced from crop and forest                                                                   cellulosic ethanol). Many second-generation biofuels/biochemicals are under development such
                                                                                                as biohydrogen, biomethanol, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biohydrogen diesel, and mixed alcohols.
residues and from non-food energy
crops.                                                                                          The commercial-scale production costs of 2nd-generation biofuels have been estimated by the
                                                                                                IEA to be in the range of US $0.80 - 1.00/liter of gasoline equivalent (lge) [US $3.02-$3.79 per
                                                                                                gallon] for ethanol and at least US $1.00/liter [$3.79 per gallon] of diesel equivalent for synthetic
Second generation conversion                                                                    diesel. This range broadly relates to gasoline or diesel wholesale prices (measured in USD /lge)
technologies are key to progress and                                                            when the crude oil price is between US $100-130 /bbl . (However, many companies within SVB‘s
                                                                                                universe are estimating crude oil parity without subsidy of between US$60 -80/bbl or $1.50 to
sustainability.                                                                                 $2.00/gal at scale).


                                                                                                  Third generation: Algae fuel, also called oilgae, is a biofuel/biochemical from algae and
                                                                                                  addressed as a third-generation petroleum replacement. Algae is a feedstock from aquatic
                                                                                                  cultivation for production of triglycerides (from algal oil) to produce petroleum replacement
                                                                                                  products. The processing technology is basically the same as for biodiesel from second-
                                                                                                  generation feedstock. Other third-generation biofuels include alcohols like bio-propanol or bio-
                                                                                                  butanol, which due to lack of production experience are usually not considered to be relevant as
                                                                                                  fuels on the market before 2050.



Source: UNEP Assessing Biofuels Report.
  Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4.


                                                                                   TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                      The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 15
First Generation Feedstocks

                                Sugar cane has been used to produce bioethanol in Brazil since the 1970s. It is a perennial plant that needs few inputs, such as fertilizers, and has long root systems
                                that can store carbon in the soil. It has a good net Greenhouse Gases (GHG) balance (up to 90% reduction in GHGs from ethanol produced from sugar cane,
                                compared with conventional gasoline). Sugar Cane is one of the most heavily utilized feedstock for biofuels production and the highly developed infrastructure of the
                                sugarcane industry in Brazil will continue to make the country a hot‐spot for Biofuel/BioChemical firms. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Brazilian
                                Sugarcane is not only the most abundant, but the cheapest available feedstock for ethanol production. Brazilian sugarcane offers several economic advantages to corn,
                                which in the Unites States is the principal ethanol crop. Sugarcane produces around 15 dry tons per acre per year yielding roughly 600 gallons of ethanol per acre.


                             Corn is a cereal grain that was domesticated in Central America. Corn can be used as a feedstock to make biobutanol and bioethanol. Corn is the most abundant crop
                             grown in the U.S. and the backbone of the current U.S. Biofuel industry. Approximately 80 million acres of land in the U.S. are dedicated to growing corn, and the U.S.
                             accounts for ~20% of global corn exports. For 2010, the USDA estimates the national corn crop to yield 154.3 bushel/acre, which corresponds to a dry weight of ~3.7
                             t/acre. Currently, one bushel of corn produces around 2.75 gallons of ethanol equating to 400 to 500 gallons per acre. Corn yields have experienced a long term general
                             uptrend from 70 bushels/acre in 1970 to the current yield as a result of enhanced seed research and development following the mapping of the corn genome. Corn ears
                             are widely used as a feedstock for first‐generation ethanol, but corn stover, the above‐ground portion of the plant that is left in the field after harvest, is increasingly being
                             utilized for second generation ethanol production.



                         Wheat is a grass that is cultivated worldwide. Wheat grain is used to make flour for breads, biscuits, pasta and couscous; and for fermentation to make beer, alcohol or vodka.
                         Wheat can be used as a feedstock to make bioethanol, and it has few sustainability issues. Wheat can also be used to make biobutanol.




                   Sweet sorghum is one of the many varieties of sorghum which have a high sugar content. Sweet sorghum will thrive better under drier and warmer conditions than many other crops
                   and is grown primarily for forage, silage, and syrup production. Sorghum has a very limited breeding history and as a result there has not been the same degree of testing for yield
                   improvements through genetic optimization as in other major biofuel feedstocks such as corn and sugarcane. While sorghum isn‘t as well‐suited as sugarcane for the production of
                   refined sugar, it has value for ethanol, and its high lignocellulosic biomass content opens up the potential for use in the production of additional biofuels.



                      Soybeans are a class of legumes native to East Asia. The crop is primarily harvested as a food source due to its exceptionally high protein content (~40% of dry weight). In
                      addition to their protein, soybeans are also valued for their oil content which accounts for ~20% of the dry weight of the beans. According to the USDA, approximately 17% of soy
                      oil is used in industrial products. These products include biodiesel, inks, paints, plasticizers and waxes, among many others. China is the world‘s largest producer of soybeans oil
                      with more than 10M tons in 2010. Global production of soy oil exceeded 41 million metric tonnes (90 billion pounds) in the 2010/2011 season.



                          Rapeseed is a yellow flowering plant of the mustard family that produces a seed which yields ~40% oil. It naturally contains 45+% euracic acid which is mildly toxic to
                          humans. Rapeseed is often grown as a high‐protein animal feed and also used in lubricants, soaps, and plastics manufacturing. According to the USDA, approximately 30%
                          of rapeseed oil is used in industrial products. In Europe, Rapeseed has become a preferred feedstock for biofuels as it has higher oil yields per unit of land than other crops
                          including soy beans, which only contain ~18‐20% oil. According to the Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, worldwide production was 61million tons in 2011 with China
                          and India being the largest producers at 14.7 million and 7.3 million tons respectively. The European Union accounted for 23 million tons of rapeseed output.




Source: Clean Tech Energy Report by Robert Baird.
  Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4.


                                                                                           TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                         The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 16
Second and Third Generation Feedstocks
                Switchgrass is a perennial warm season grass native to North America. It can grow to heights of almost nine feet and an established stand has a lifespan of up to 10 years.
                One of its defining characteristics is its large, underground root system which can weigh as much as 6-8 tons per acre, making the plant particularly adept at accumulating
                carbon dioxide .The energy efficiency of producing ethanol from switchgrass is estimated to be much higher than corn with an energy input to output rate of 1:4 vs. 1:1.3. As
                reported by the USDA, various switchgrass crops yield 5-9.4 tons per acre.



               Camelina is an annual flowering plant and member of the mustard family, regarded for its oil properties. It typically stands 1‐3 feet tall, is heavily branched, and produces
               small seeds high in oil content. It is able to grow effectively on land of marginal quality, needs minimal water input, and can withstand cold climates. Because of its high
               oil‐yield of 35‐38% (~2x that of soybeans), it is specifically being studied for use in biodiesel applications.




                               Miscanthus is a tall perennial grass closely related to sugar cane. Though native to the tropical and subtropical climates of Africa and Southeast Asia, it is also
                               being grown by at least 10 countries in Europe explicitly for use as an energy feedstock. It has entered into favor due to its high expected commercial yields of
                               12-13 BDT/acre (as reported by Mendel Biotechnology in LA and MS) with low moisture content in the range of 15‐20% if harvested in late winter or spring.



                         Waste is a unique feedstock since it can often generate additional revenue from tip‐fees, but its heterogeneous characteristic makes it difficult to convert to biofuels
                         and chemicals. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) waste are two waste streams that several companies in the industry are working to
                         convert into fuels and chemicals. According to Pike Research, the market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology
                         markets, the global market for thermal and biological waste-to-energy technologies is set to reach at least $6.2 billion in 2012 and grow to $29.2 billion by 2022.


                           Jatropha is a genus covering ~150 types of plants, shrubs, and trees which produce seeds with oil content of up to 40%. Making it even more attractive as a
                           feedstock is its ability to grow on poor quality land and its resistance to drought and pests. It is native to South America and typically only grows in tropical or
                           subtropical environments. One drawback of Jatropha is that it also contains toxic matter which necessitates it be carefully processed before use in production. It
                           is estimated that Jatropha nuts are capable of providing up to 2,270 liters of biodiesel per hectare, and the plant is currently the subject of several trials for use in
                           biodiesel applications including a collaborative effort between Archer Daniels Midland, Bayer CropScience AG, and Daimler AG.


                        Southern pine presents a rich biomass source in the Southeastern portion of the U.S. These trees typically reach heights of 60‐120 feet (depending on species) and
                        are characterized by their rounded tops, long needles, and rapid growth rates. According to the DOE, there are roughly 200 million tons of no-merchantable forest
                        material alone and total forestland in the US is estimated to be 750 million acres.


                          Algae offer the highest oil yields of any biofuel feedstock, but issues around capital cost have created challenges for commercial use: Algae are simple‐celled
                          organisms capable of creating complex organic compounds from inorganic molecules through photosynthetic pathways. Interest in using algae as a feedstock for
                          biofuel production has increased rapidly and more than 30 U.S. based firms are now working to commercialize such technology. Algae offer attractive yields
                          estimated to be upward of 4,000 to 5,000 gallons per acre. The DOE considers open pond algal configurations to have the most promise estimating 2012 fuel
                          costs to be $9.28/ gal with a roadmap to $2.27/ gal.

Source: Clean tech Energy Report by Robert Baird, June 2011.
  Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4.


                                                                                      TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                    The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 17
Comparative Yields


Energy density refers to the amount                         Energy Density for Biofuels per Unit of Required Land for Various Feedstock 1
of energy stored in a given system or
region of space per unit volume                                                                             Crop
                                                                                                          Required             Fuel               Fuel Energy       Fuel Energy
                                                                                      Crop Yield         (kg raw/kg          Produced               Density         per Hectare
Among all the edible oils used for                           Crop                   (tons/hectare)          fuel)         (tons/hectare)           (MJ/kg3)        (GJ/hectare4)
manufacturing biodiesel, palm oil is
                                                             Oil Rapeseed                 3.0                4.7                 0.64                43.7              28.0
also the most efficient in terms of
                                                             Pyrolysis / wood            10.0                2.0                 5.0                 25.0             125.0
land use, pricing and availability
                                                             Wheat                        2.6                6.2                 0.43                35.0              15.0
Algae offer the highest oil yields of
                                                             Corn                         4.2                3.9                 1.1                 35.0              37.0
any biofuel feedstock, but issues
                                                             Sugarcane                   61.8               18.9                 3.3                 35.0             115.0
around cost have created challenges
for commercial use                                           Sugarbeet                   60.0               18.9                 3.2                 35.0              11.0

                                                             Wood Chips                  10.0                8.6                 1.2                 35.0              41.0

                                                             Wheat Straw                  1.9                7.9                 0.25                35.0               9.0




                                                            Comparison of Yields for Typical Oil Crops2


                                                             Crop:                        Soybean       Camelina       Sunflower        Jatropha        Oil Palm        Algae

                                                             Oil Yield:                                                                                                 1,000-
                                                                                             2.6            6.2           0.43             35.0             15.0
                                                             (g/acre/yr)                                                                                                6,500




Source: 1Global Change Biology, 2Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011.
Note: 3,4MJ & GJ: Megajoules and Gigajoules (derived unit of energy or work in the International System of Units, equal to the energy expended (or work done) in applying force
through a distance).


                                                                                TABLE OF CONTENTS                                           The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 18
Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages of Feedstock


                 Corn                    Sweet Sorghum                    Sugarcane                     Soybean Oil                  Rapeseed Oil                      Pine Oil




       Ethanol industry              Annual crop – short          Cheapest available crop       Good oil content makes it    Seeds have very high oil     High energy density and
 P      experienced with using         growth cycle (90‐120+         (non‐cellulosic) for           suitable for biodiesel        content by volume at          saturated fat content
 O      corn as a feedstock            days) allows for multiple     ethanol production             production                    ~40%
 S     Corn stover offers             cuts (2‐3) to be made in     Does not have to be                                         Can be used as an
 I      potential for use in           a given year                  transitioned from a                                          animal feed as well as in
 T      cellulosic fuel               Low water requirements        complex carbohydrate to                                      lubricants and plastics
        applications                   and adaptable to wide         a simple sugar prior to                                      manufacturing
 I                                     variety of environments       fermentation
 V
                                      Less residual waste          Does not compete as a
 E                                     biomass from harvesting       food source
 S

       Use for corn in biofuels      Lower sugar yields           Due to harvest timelines,     Competes as a food           Shares significant           Burning of peatland to
        stokes the ―food vs. fuel‖     compared to sugarcane         average mills only             source                        demand with Canola oil        clear room for new
 I      argument                      Yields mixed sugars as        operate an average of         Oil content lower than        which could add to price      plantations leading to
 S     Subject to commodity           opposed to pure sucrose,      ~185 days per year             many competing crops          volatility                    significant deforestation
        pricing volatility             making it less conducive     Requires high quality          used as targets for                                         and GHG emissions
 S
       High quality land required     for production of refined     land and significant water     biofuels
 U
        as well as significant         sugars                        and fertilizer inputs         Production of biodiesel
 E
        water and fertilizer needs                                  Vegetative propagation         from soybean oil results
 S                                                                   can lead to overcrowding       in a net energy loss of
                                                                                                    ~30%




Source: Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011.


                                                                                   TABLE OF CONTENTS                                               The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 19
Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages of Feedstock (con’t)


            Switchgrass                    Camelina                     Miscanthus              Municipal Solid Waste                   Jatropha                   Southern Pine




       Reliable biomass yields     Can be grown on              Reliable biomass yields       Can generate a                Can be grown on low           Shuttering of paper &
 P      due its propensity for       marginal lands, in cold      Capable of relatively high     significant revenue            quality land                   processing mills in U.S.
        accumulating CO2             climates, and with                                           stream from tip‐fees          Naturally resistant to         have led to a growth
 O                                                                 yields today
       Higher energy content        minimal water                                               Continuously generated         drought and pests –            surplus
 S                                                                Can be grown effectively
        than corn for ethanol       Short crop that can be        without fertilizers – less     – no need for agriculture      though yields shown to        Wood waste offers an
 I      production                   rotated with wheat                                           and spending                   be significantly higher        inexpensive source of
                                                                   leaching
 T                                                                                                                               when irrigated                 biomass
       Wide adaptability and       High oil yields of 35‐38%                                   Collection and hauling
 I      capable of growth in dry                                                                  logistics and                 Does not compete as a         Trees have longer
 V      climates                                                                                  infrastructure is in place     food source as it is           growth cycles than other
 E     ESelf‐seeding, requiring                                                                                                 non‐edible                     energy crops
 S      no replanting after
        harvesting

       Additional research         Additional time/research     Limited adoption thus far     Heterogeneous                 Contains toxic matter         Collection processes for
        required before              needed before                 in North America               characteristic makes           which must be separated        residual wood waste still
 I      commercially viable          commercially viable                                          conversion difficult           before used in production      need development
                                                                  Studies have found it
 S                                                                 dries up soil more than       Often requires                Still requires significant    Rising demand for pulp
 S                                                                 other crops which can          gasification which can         yield improvements             globally could provide
 U                                                                 reduce surface water           carry high CAPEX               before economically            upward pricing pressures
                                                                   supplies                       requirements                   viable at commercial          Cannot be utilized as
 E
                                                                                                                                 scale                          feedstock by
 S
                                                                                                                                                                non‐cellulosic conversion
                                                                                                                                                                technologies




Source: Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011.


                                                                                 TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                  The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 20
Petroleum Replacement Overview
                                                                                                         Market Size        Customers

                                                                    Alkylate/        Drop-in                               Refiners
                                                                                                         $485 billion
                                                                    Polygas          Gasoline/Alkylate


             Propionic                                             Poly-               Automative/
                              Propanol               Propylene                         Packaging                           Consumer
               C3                                                  propylene
                                                                                                                           Products
                                                                                                         $110 billion      Chemical
                                                                                                                           Companies
                                                                    Acrylics         Super-Absorbents


                                         Acetic                    Cellulosic          Rayon/Filters
                                         Anhydride                 Acetate

                                                                                                                           Consumer
                                                                                                                           Products
                                            VAM                       EVA            Paint/Adhesives
                                                                                                                           Paint Companies
                                                                                                         $180 billion
Conversion                                                                                                                 Chemical
Technology                                                       Poly-ethylene          Packaging                          Companies




              Acetic                                             Ethylene glycol           PET
                           Ethanol       Ethylene
               C2
                                                                   Linear a-
                                                                   olefins              Jet/Diesel       $245 billion      Airlines/Dod
              Acetic                                                                                                       Refiners
              Sales
                                                                                     Gasoline Blending   $60 billion       Refiners


                                                                      Alkylate       Drop-in Gasoline
              Butyric
                              Butanol      Butene
               C4
                                                                                                         $1 billion        Consumer
                                                                                                                           Products
                                                                                      Rubber/Plastics




 Source: ZeaChem,, Inc..


                                                                 TABLE OF CONTENTS                        The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 21
Conversion Technologies – Fermentation and Fluid Catalytic Cracking



                                                     Fermentation                                                 Fluid Catalytic Cracking

                            Definition: Fermentation is the process by which bacteria such      Definition: Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) is a proven process
                            as yeast, convert simple sugars to alcohol and carbon dioxide       in the petroleum industry used to convert crude oil into higher
                            through their metabolic pathways. The most common input for         value products such as gasoline and naptha. FCC reactions
                            fermentation in the United States is corn, but in warmer climates   occur at extremely high temperatures (up to 1,000+ F°) and
                            sugarcane or sugar beet are the principal types of feedstock.       use fine, powdery catalysts capable of flowing likely a liquid
                            Resulting alcohols such as ethanol and butanol can be utilized      which break the bonds of long‐chain hydrocarbons into smaller
                            as blendstock with gasoline or in the case of butanol, can act as   carbon‐based molecules. FCC technology is applied to organic
                            a gallon for gallon replacement                                     sources of carbon such as woody biomass to convert the
  TECHNOLOGY                                                                                    cellulosic content into usable hydrocarbons with equivalence to
                            Feedstock: Simple sugars – corn and sugarcane are most
                                                                                                crude oils – this process is referred to as Biomass Fluid
                            commonly used today in the production of ethanol
                                                                                                Catalytic Cracking (BFCC). FCC was first commercialized in
                            Output : Alcohols including ethanol and butanol, and distiller‘s    1942, and is presently used to refine ~1/3 of the U.S.s‘ total
                            grains                                                              annual crude volume

                                                                                                Feedstock: Feedstock agnostic – can utilize cellulosic biomass

                                                                                                Output: Biocrude, gases

                             Ability to genetically modify metabolic pathways of                Commercially proven technology in the petroleum industry
                              organisms to yield different carbon molecule outputs               Can process low‐cost cellulosic biomass
                              (ethanol, butanol)
     POSITIVES               Process already demonstrated at commercial scale via
                              first‐generation ethanol production
                             Common outputs such as ethanol / butanol have existing
                              markets in both fuels and chemicals

                             Costly to develop/purchase enzymes to break down                   High capital costs for facilities
                              cellulosic materials to make simple sugars available for           Proven for petroleum but limited to demonstration testing for
       ISSUES                 fermentation                                                        biomass
                             First‐generation feedstock susceptible to commodity price
                              volatility
Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011.


                                                                         TABLE OF CONTENTS                                       The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 22
Conversion Technologies – Anaerobic Digestion and Gasification


                                                 Anaerobic Digestion                                                   Gasification

                            Definition: Anaerobic digestion is the process by which           Definition: Gasification is a process by which carbon‐based
                            bacteria decompose wet organic matter in the absence of           materials such as coal, petroleum coke, and biomass are
                            oxygen. The result is a byproduct known as biogas which           separated into their molecular components by a combination of
                            consists of ~60% methane and ~40% carbon dioxide. Biogas          heat and steam, forming a gaseous compound known as
                            can then be combusted in the presence of oxygen to generate
                                                                                              synthesis gas or syngas as it is commonly called
                            energy. Effectively any feedstock can be converted to biogas
                            via digestion including human and animal wastes, crop             Feedstock flexibility: Feedstock flexible including use of
  TECHNOLOGY                residues, industrial byproducts, and municipal solid waste.       municipal solid waste
                            Anaerobic digestion is the same process that created natural
                            gas reserves found throughout the world today                     Output: Syngas which has the capacity to be used in a variety
                                                                                              of applications including the production of transportation fuels,
                            Feedstock: Starches, celluloses, municipal solid waste, food      electricity, and heat. Other byproducts include sulphur and slag
                            greases, animal waste, and sewage

                            Output: Biogas

                             Commercially proven technology                                   Input flexibility allows costs to be reduced through lower cost
                             Can be used to process wet organic matter                         feedstock
                             Resulting materials can be processed into valuable fertilizer    Energy conversion ratio potentially higher than competing
     POSITIVES               Utilization of methane to produce biogas reduces impact of
                                                                                                technologies because biomass‐to‐liquid (BTL) gasification
                                                                                                can convert all of the cellulosic material into transportation
                              GHG emissions from landfill gas
                                                                                                fuels
                             Low capital and costs and potential for low operating cost
                                                                                               Lower emission levels than traditional power production

                             Slower process than many alternatives                            Gas quality suffers from irregularity due to challenges in
                             Cannot be used to convert lignin                                  removing tar content– energy density ~50% of natural gas
       ISSUES                Accumulates heavy metals and contaminants in the                 High capital and operating costs – this could be reduced in
                              resulting sludge                                                  future by co‐location next to feedstock sources
                             Gas clean‐up has disrupted projects in the past


Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011.


                                                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS                                     The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 23
Conversion Technologies – Pyrolysis and Transesterification


                                                        Pyrolysis                                                    Transesterification

                            Definition: Pyrolysis is the process by which organic materials     Definition: Transesterification is the process by which a
                            are decomposed by the application of intense heat in the            triglyceride is chemically reacted with an alcohol to create
                            absence of oxygen to form gaseous vapors which when cooled          biodiesel and glycerin. While there are a few variants, the
                            form charcoal and/or bio‐oil can potentially be used as a direct    predominance of biodiesel is created through base catalyzed
                            fuel substitute or an input for the manufacture of transportation   transterification because of its high conversion yields and
                            fuels                                                               comparatively low pressure and temperature requirement.
  TECHNOLOGY                                                                                    Transesterification is necessary because vegetable oils/animal
                            Feedstock: Capable of using a wide variety of feedstock
                                                                                                fats cannot be used directly to run in combustion engines
                            including agriculture crops, solid waste, and woody biomass
                                                                                                because of their high levels of viscosity
                            (currently most common)
                                                                                                Feedstock: Soybean oil, palm oil, jatropha oil, rapeseed oil,
                            Output: Bio‐oil (energy density of ~16.6 megajoules/liter) which
                                                                                                animal fats, food grease, etc.
                            must be processed further before it can be utilized as a
                            transportation fuel. It also yields syngas and biochar              Outputs: Biodiesel and glycerol

                             Flexibility of feedstock diversifies risk related to feedstock     Results in lower‐viscosity biodiesel allowing it to replace
                              supply/demand pressures                                             petroleum in diesel engines
                             Marketable biochar output provides secondary revenue               Glycerin byproduct can be sold to generate secondary
                              stream from production                                              revenue stream
     POSITIVES
                                                                                                 Low cost and high availability of methanol and sodium
                                                                                                  hydroxide reduces input costs
                                                                                                 Relatively low reaction temperature of 60 degrees C keeps
                                                                                                  utility costs down

                             Potentially corrosive characteristics requiring specialized        Requires separation/recovery of base catalyst / glycerin from
                              components in fuel systems to adequately house it                   solution
       ISSUES                Viscosity increases during storage meaning it must be used         Free fatty acid and water contamination can result in
                              more frequently than traditional fossil fuels                       negative reactions


Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011.


                                                                           TABLE OF CONTENTS                                    The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 24
Conversion Technologies – Syngas Fermentation


                                               Syngas Fermentation

                           Definition: Syngas Fermentation is the process by which
                           gasification breaks the carbon bonds in the feedstock and
                           converts the organic matter into synthesis gas. The syngas is
                           sent to bioreactor where microorganisms directly convert the
                           syngas to a fuels and/or chemicals

  TECHNOLOGY
                           Feedstock: Capable of using a wide variety carbon containing
                           feedstocks including agricultural crops, solid waste, woody
                           biomass and fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas

                           Output: Ethanol, 2.3-BDO, Acetic Acid, Acetone, Propanol,
                           Butanol, MEK, Isoprene, Acrylic Acid, Butadiene, Succinic Acid

                            Process does not rely on expensive enzymes or
                             pretreatment chemicals thus operating costs should be lower
                             than non-gasification based technology
     POSITIVES              Ability to convert nearly all feedstock into energy with
                             minimal by-products. Microorganisms are able to produce
                             only one fuel/chemical under low temperature and pressure

                            Imperative to keep the right nutrient and chemical balance in
                             order to keep the microorganisms alive and productive. Any
                             contaminants could spread quickly through the bioreactor
       ISSUES               Reliability and Continuous Operations: Since the organisms
                             live off the energy contained in the synthesis gas, it is critical
                             that they continue to be through a well operating system
                             design



Source: Coskata Inc, LanzaTech Inc, Advanced Biofuels USA “Syngas Fermentation, The Third Pathway for Cellulosic Ethanol.


                                                                           TABLE OF CONTENTS                                The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 25
The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals




                   TABLE OF CONTENTS   The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 26
Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth – Summary


• The sector has received increasing attention from both public and private investors due to several growth drivers including the desire for
  energy independence, the increasing demand for liquid fuels for transportation especially in emerging markets, technological advances
  across the industry‘s value chain and environmental concerns (Green house gas (GHG) emissions). The most important driver, however,
  spurring investment in the industry is the continued volatility and high price of crude oil.

• Biofuels/Biochemicals constitute a 3% share in the total global chemicals & fuels market in 2010 and is expected to touch 17% in 2025.

• As ―easy― conventional oil resources continue to decline and more expensive nonconventional liquid sources make up the difference,
  biofuels/ biochemicals will play an increasing role in diversifying the liquid energy landscape.

• Liquids demand is growing mainly driven by rapidly-growing non- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
  economies and will be met by supply growth from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Americas. China (+8
  million barrels per day), India (+3.5 million barrels per day), and the Middle East (+4 million barrels per day) account for nearly all of the net
  global increases.

• Liquid biofuels accounted for a modest 2.7% of global road-transport fuels in 2010 , but will play an expanded role of meeting liquid demand.

• OPEC‘s critical position in the oil market grows given its oil reserve position while the Americas also play an expanding role by utilization of
  new recovery technologies in tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands.

• Exporting oil producing nations, ―petro-states‖, rely heavily on oil revenues to support their economies (50-90% of GDP). Oil price decreases
  can cause major deficits, budget cuts, considerable social turmoil, and political change creating an incentive for petro states to keep
  production in line with demand.

• Government legislation is driving the adoption of renewable fuels
   — In February 2010, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) submitted its final rule for Renewable Fuels Standard 2 (RFS-2),
     setting forth volume targets of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels produced in the U.S. by 2022 with 21 billion being advanced biofuels.
   — The EU is targeting 10% of transport energy from renewables by 2020, counting both sustainable biofuels and electric vehicles.




                                                                   TABLE OF CONTENTS                                  The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 27
Compelling Market Opportunity


Opportunities for bioproducts will                       Bio Based Market Opportunity
not only be fuels based but focused
on the whole barrel. The gasoline
market accounts for about 45% of                                                                                                           Bio Based Market
                                                                                               1.5                                         approx.$1.4 trillion
the barrel of crude while there are
many different chemicals inside a
                                                                                                          Fuels (Bio)    Chemicals (Bio)




                                                                 Trillions of Dollars (U.S.)
barrel of oil.

A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude                                                               1.0
equates to about 45 gallons of
petroleum products which includes                                                                                                   CAGR
(as a % of the total barrel) motor                                                                                                   16%
gasoline (45%), distillate fuel oil                                                            0.5
(29%), jet fuel (9.4%) petroleum
coke (5.5%), still gas (4.4%).                                                                              Bio Based Market
                                                                                                            $148 billion


                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                                  2010                            2025

                                                             Total Chemicals &
                                                             Fuels Market                                        $5.0 trillion                $8.0 trillion

                                                             Bio-based Share                                        3.0%                            17%




Source: Renmatix, International Energy Outlook 2009, Industrial biotechnology analysis 2010, Arthur D. Little – ICIS; World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency
2010; USDA Biobased Product Projections 2008; US Energy Information Administration.


                                                                                                     TABLE OF CONTENTS                        The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 28
Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth


The rising cost of oil will create an             Crude Oil Monthly spot prices ($ per barrel)1
incentive for producers of
petroleum‐derived products to seek                $160.0                                                       The volatility and price increases of oil are
                                                  $140.0                                                       the most significant drivers in the growth of
renewable alternatives that provide                                                                            the Biofuel/Biochemical Industry: The
                                                  $120.0
greater stability in pricing.                     $100.0
                                                                                                               increasing demand for petroleum products,
                                                                                                               supply shocks, and other factors have led to
                                                   $80.0                                                       volatile and high oil prices over the past
Strong public sentiment for the U.S.               $60.0                                                       decade. In January 2000, European Brent
                                                   $40.0                                                       Crude spot prices were below $24/barrel
to reduce its dependence on foreign                                                                            before peaking at over $140/barrel in 2008.
                                                   $20.0
petroleum reserves is thus one of the               $0.0
                                                                                                               After some price relief in the midst of the global
                                                                                                               economic downturn, Brent Crude is
major drivers of the renewable fuel                                                                            ~$97/barrel currently, representing a CAGR of
industry.                                                                                                      ~13.5% from 2000‐2011.



U.S. oil imports drop due to rising
domestic output & improved                        Net Imports of Oil2
transport efficiency; EU imports to
overtake those of U.S. around 2015                Million barrels/day
                                                                                                               Biofuels and Biochemicals help reduce U.S.
and China expected to be the largest              14.0                                                         dependence on foreign oil: U.S. reliance on
                                                                                       2000     2010   2035    foreign imports has increased significantly
importer by 2020.                                 12.0
                                                                                                               since the mid‐1980‘s. It can be argued that as
                                                  10.0                                                         the world‘s current economic superpower and
                                                                                                               the largest consumer of petroleum, the U.S.
                                                   8.0
                                                                                                               will continue to command a reliable oil supply
                                                   6.0                                                         from producing nations. However, with the
                                                                                                               emergence of rapidly growing and
                                                   4.0
                                                                                                               industrializing economies in China and India,
                                                   2.0                                                         the global supply of oil may be spread
                                                                                                               increasingly thin putting additional upward
                                                   0.0                                                         pressure on energy prices
                                                           China        India    EU           U.S.     Japan




Source: 1Bloomberg, 2World Energy Outlook 2011.


                                                                   TABLE OF CONTENTS                                The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 29
Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth (con’t)


By 2035, the EIA projects that                          Vehicles per 1000 people in Selected Markets1
transportation sector will account for                   800
73% of all liquid fuels consumption.                     700                                                                                             Increase in transportation applications driving
                                                                                                       2010        2035                                  growth in liquid fuels consumption: The Energy
                                                         600
Key drivers of transportation growth                                                                                                                     Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S.
                                                         500
                                                                                                                                                         consumption of liquid fuels will increase from 19.1 million
include population expansion and                         400                                                                                             barrels per day in 2009 to more than 21.9 million gallons
rising real disposable income which                      300                                                                                             per day by 2035. The increase is expected to be driven
                                                         200                                                                                             almost entirely by an increase in the use of liquid fuels for
leads to more frequent travel .                                                                                                                          transportation applications which is forecasted to grow
                                                         100
                                                           0                                                                                             from 13.6 million barrels per day in 2009 to 16.1 million
                                                                                                                                                         barrels per day by 2035 .
The global passenger vehicle fleet                                 United     European       China         India    Middle East
                                                                   States      Union
doubles to 1.7 billion in 2035; most
cars are sold outside the OECD by
                                                                                                                                   Commodity Food Price Index vs. CPI2
2020, making non-OECD policies key                      Cellulosic biofuel technologies unlock non‐food
                                                        feedstock and reduce input cost volatility: Cellulose (corn               400.0
to global oil demand.                                   stover, switchgrass, miscanthus, woodchips etc) is not used               350.0

                                                        for food and can be grown in all parts of the world. The entire              Million
                                                                                                                                  300.0                               barrels/day
                                                                                                                                  250.0
                                                        plant can be used when producing cellulosic products. While               200.0
The development and subsequent                          the U.S. is the world‘s largest producer of the crop, corn                150.0
                                                                                                                                  100.0
scale‐up of cellulosic technologies                     competes as a food source and is subject to significantly                  50.0
                                                        more price volatility than residual waste biomass. Over the                 0.0
offers a clear advantage to reducing                    past decade the value of the IMF‘s Commodity Food Price
price volatility of biofuel feedstock                   Index increased at a CAGR of 8.7% annually. This is ~3.6x
                                                        faster than the rate of inflation as measured by the                                                                           Commodity Food Price Index                CPI
and will play major role in driving                     Consumer Price Index which had a CAGR of 2.4% annually
down the costs of renewable                             over the same period. From 2000 to 2011, the maximum 12-
                                                                                                                                   Relative Prices of Wood, Sugar, Soy Oil,
                                                        month price increase was 18% for pine woodchips versus
fuels/chemicals.                                        50% for corn, 46% for sugar and 51% for West Texas
                                                                                                                                   Corn, Nat Gas and Crude Oil Since 20003
                                                        Intermediate crude according to average quarterly data from                                      500
                                                                                                                                                         450
                                                        Timber Mart-South, the USDA and the EIA.                                                         400




                                                                                                                                   Index (Q1 2000=100)
                                                                                                                                          Million barrels/day
                                                                                                                                           350
                                                                                                                                                         300
                                                                                                                                                         250
                                                                                                                                                         200
                                                                                                                                                         150
                                                                                                                                                         100
                                                                                                                                                          50
                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                               2001     2002    2003     2004      2005   2006   2007     2008      2009     2010     2011

                                                                                                                                                                         World raw sugar (No.11, spot)                  Corn (No.2 yellow, Chicago spot)
Source: 1World Energy Outlook 2011, 2Bloomberg, 3EIA, DOE, Timber Mart-South.                                                                                            US Nat Gas Industrial Price                    WTI Crude (Spot, FOB Cushing, OK)

Note: OECD- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.                                                                                                      Pine Pulpwood (Delivered AL)




                                                                             TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                                                         The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 30
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012
The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview  June 2012

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The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview June 2012

  • 1. Silicon Valley Bank Cleantech Practice The Advanced Biofuel and Biochemical Overview June 2012
  • 2. Table of Contents I. Introduction III. The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals (Cont.) I. Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Macro Observations 3 V. Liquid Demand Growth from Non-OECD Countries 36 II. Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Micro Observations 4 VI. Biofuels for Transportation 38 III. The Cleantech Ecosystem 5 VII. Increasing Marginal Cost of Production 39 IV. Market Snapshot: Global Ethanol Production 6 VIII. Oil Market Price and Saudi Breakeven Threshold 42 V. Market Snapshot: Global Biodiesel Production 7 IX. U.S. Renewable Fuel Standards 43 Market Snapshot: Ethanol and Biodiesel Production X. Biofuel Blending Mandates by Country 46 VI. 8 Landscape in the U.S. VII. Market Snapshot: Global Biochemical Production 9 XI. Cellulosic Ethanol Pricing Model 47 II. Biofuels/Biochemicals Overview IV. Biofuel/Biochemicals Landscape I. What are Biofuels/Biochemicals? 11 I. Advanced Biofuel and Biochemicals Value Chain 49 II. Types of Biofuels 15 V. Where Are They in Development? III. Biofuel Feedstocks 16 I. Investments in Biofuels/Biochemicals 52 IV. Comparative Yields 18 II. Global Players – Milestone Update 54 V. Petroleum Replacement Overview 21 III. Biofuel/Biochemical IPOs in Pipeline 56 VI. Conversion Technologies 22 IV. Strategic Partnerships 57 V. Projects to Watch in 2012–2013 58 III. The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals VI. Appendix 61 I. Compelling Market Opportunity 28 VII. Selected Due Diligence Questions 69 II. Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth 29 VIII. Silicon Valley Bank Cleantech Team 70 III. Liquid Demand Statistics 32 IV. Energy Market Growth 34 The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 2
  • 3. Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Macro Observations OBSERVATIONS • Multiple very large and growing markets — Total markets will top $1+ trillion. Beyond the well-known fossil-fuel replacement markets is growing demand for non-fuel products like food supplements, personal care products, and packaging. • Positive supply/demand dynamics around crude — The fundamental underlying demand is exacerbated by oil exporting countries‘ economic reliance on oil revenue. Meanwhile, the cost of crude production continues to increase. Biofuels/biochemicals will play an increasingly important role to fill that need. • Demand drivers – mandates and markets — Mandate: Primarily for fuels, government mandated goals proliferate with varying degrees of adherence and enforcement. Subsidies of all types remain important in attracting capital and shifts in policy could alter business plan direction between fuels or chemicals. — Markets: Growing economic justifications are intersecting with other market demand factors. For example, the U..S Navy‘s goal of 50% energy consumption from alternative sources by 2020 or the Air Force‘s initiative to acquire 50% of aviation fuel from alternative blends by 2016 are policy influencers that also have purchasing power. • The role of strategic corporate investors — Always important, corporates from a variety of industries (and led by big energy, chemicals/materials, and consumer products) have become critical parties in the development and scale-up of the sector. Taking multiple forms of straight investment, joint venture, and collaboration, investors search for innovation, growth, and information. • Commodity markets — Fuels in particular are ultimately commodities. Without policy enhancements, the impact of commodity cycles will continue to challenge scaling of new technologies. • Business life cycle — While the underlying trends and fundamentals may be inexorable, development of the industry and market dynamics is a very long term process and investment cycle. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 3
  • 4. Biofuel/Biochemicals Outlook – Micro Observations OBSERVATIONS • Platform technologies — Venture investors and companies favor platforms where multiple markets can be addressed. Single product fuel companies like ethanol are challenged. The platform companies may ultimately seek to enter fuel markets but may opt to defer that step in order to access higher margin, less commoditized markets first. • Feedstock flexibility — Access to multiple feedstock types and sources is critical to scaling facilities, particularly in margin constrained markets where supply and logistics can have great impact. • The scale-up conundrum — Given the capital required to achieve economies, and the fact that most investors want both scale and capital efficiency, the choice between build/own and licensing is becoming acute. To truly reach scale requires enormous financing. The conundrum is how to get licensees without experience at scale. And what scale is necessary to attract the right investors? Does the project need to demonstrate revenue scale, cash flow positive, or just output? • Understand the value chain — In addition to sources and location of feedstock, proximity to off take and associated logistical costs are important for certain markets like ethanol. In concert with the scale-up conundrum above, are these links in the value chain of a size to support large facilities? Additionally, to attract investors companies must demonstrate the ability to reduce costs of collection, distillation, and extraction through operational or technological advances. • Milestone sensitivity — At these development stages, sensitivity around scale-up milestones is palpable. Whether due to supply or technical aspects, such delays in any project are not unusual but there seems to be heightened sensitivity here that often results in further delays or hurdles to funding. • Financing strategy — Financing strategies, with minimal reliance on government support, must be devised at the outset. Today this likely means earlier and more active role from strategic investors which may limit some flexibility. It also means determining the license/own decision. IPOs really are not exits but financing events much like that seen in the biotech sector. Some combination of strategic investor with access to public markets may be necessary to complete the demo and first commercial funding challenge. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 4
  • 5. The Cleantech Ecosystem Materials and Manufacturing Materials & Manufacturing Recycling & Energy Energy Energy Agriculture, Air & Energy Storage Waste Generation Efficiency Infrastructure Water Management • Alternative fuels • Batteries • Building materials • Smart Grid • Waste to energy • Agriculture • Biomass • Fuel Cells • Lighting Hardware • Waste • Air • Solar / Thermal • Utility Scale grid • Demand response • Smart meters repurposing • Water • Wind storage systems • Transmission • Hydro • Energy Management • Improved and • Improved power • Reduced • Reduction in • Economic in • Organic economical reliability operating costs wastage nature - well- pesticides / Application Benefits source of • Intermittency • Lower • Reduce outage run recycling fertilizers energy Management maintenance frequency / programs cost • Water • Less pressure • Increased costs duration less to operate purification on non- cycles/longer • Extended • Reduce than waste • Water renewable storage equipment lives distribution loss collection and remediation resources (oil landfilling • Efficiency • Purification and gas) • Management • Energy security • Grid/ Off Grid Residential End User Commercial Industrial Utilities, Government and Others TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 5
  • 6. Market Snapshot: Global Ethanol Production Top Five Countries (2010) Ethanol Production (millions of gallons/year) 1 The Global Renewable Fuels Alliance (GRFA) forecasts ethanol production to hit 88.7 billion litres in 2011 Source: 1NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011. Note: Gallons to Liters conversion ratio at 1:3.78. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 6
  • 7. Market Snapshot: Global Biodiesel Production Top Five Countries (2010) Biodiesel Production (millions of gallons) 1 Source: 1NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011. Note: Gallons to Liters conversion ratio at 1:3.78. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 7
  • 8. Market Snapshot: Ethanol and Biodiesel Production Landscape in the U.S. U.S. Ethanol Production1 U.S. Alternative Fueling Stations2 • Corn ethanol production continues to expand rapidly in the U.S. Between 2000 and 2010, production increased nearly 8x • Ethanol production grew nearly 19% in 2010 to reach 13,000 million gallons per year • Ethanol has steadily increased its percentage of the overall gasoline pool, and was 9.4% in 2010 • In 2010, there were 1,424,878 ethanol (E85) fueled vehicles on the road in the U.S and 7,149 alternative fueling stations in the U.S. • Biodiesel has expanded from a relatively small production base in 2000, to a total U.S. production of 315 million gallons in 2010. However, biodiesel is still a small percentage of the alternative fuel pool in the U.S., as over 40x more ethanol was produced in 2010 • Biodiesel production in the U.S. in 2010 is 63x what it was in 2001 Source: 1,2NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Data Book, 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 8
  • 9. Market Snapshot: Global Biochemical Production Overview of Biochemicals Specialty Biochemicals Name Characteristics Uses Adhesives Liquid or semi-liquid compound that bonds items together Paper products, labeling, packaging, plastic bags, Polymers via drying, heat or pressure stamps, lamination Consumer Lubricants and Products and Additives Cationic Surfactants Organic compound consisting of phospholipids and Soaps, detergents, shampoos, toothpastes Coatings proteins with positively charged heads that lower the surface tension between liquids and other surfaces Geraniol Clear to pale yellow that is insoluble in water Commonly used in perfumes or fruit flavoring Industrial Lubricants Oil-based compound that reduces friction between moving Used in operation of manufacturing, mining and 4.6 MM 4.0 MM 73.0 MM surfaces transportation equipment and more tonnes/yr tonnes/yr tonnes/yr Linalool Naturally occurring alcohol found in flowers and spice Scents for perfumes and cleaning agents, insecticides, plants used to make Vitamin E Nonionic Surfactant Organic compound consisting of phospholipids and Lower the surface tension of liquids or between liquids • Specialty • Base oils Building blocks for proteins with non-charged heads and another surface surfactants • Fuel additives • Specialty O2 Scavenger Compounds that inhibit oxidation or other molecules Used to prevent the corrosion metal by oxygen • Soy petrolatum polymideds, Plasticizer Additives that increase the workability, flexibility and Used for plastics, concrete and dry wall • Performance polyols, polyesters fluidity of a substance allowing for easier changing of waxes • Epoxies and shape • Candles polyurethanes Specialty Emollients Lipids that attract water and retain moisture Used in lotions and make-ups to prevent dry skin • Coatings and Squalane Saturated form of squalene making it less susceptible to Used in personal care products such as moisturizers cross linkers oxidation • Like the biofuels industry, the biochemical industry uses bioprocesses and biomass to replace petroleum as the important building block for a number of products including plastics, lubricants, waxes and cosmetics. • According to the American Chemistry Council dated July 2011, the market size of the global chemical industry (Basic Chemicals, Intermediate Chemicals, Finished Chemical Products)1 was approximately $3.0 trillion as of July 2011 • Specialty chemicals compete more on desired effect than cost and as a result present less price‐sensitive, higher ASP markets for renewable chemical firms to target • In the U.S. ~200,000 barrels of oil per day are required to fulfill demand for plastic packaging Source: Elevance Renewable Sciences Filings. Note: 1Basic Chemicals include Butadiene, Propylene, Ethylene, Benzene; Intermediate Chemicals include Butanediol, Acrylic acid, Ethlyene glycol; Finished Products include BR, PBT, SBR, Polyacrylics, PE, PET, Nylon-6. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 9
  • 10. Biofuels/Biochemicals Overview TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 10
  • 11. What are Biofuels/Biochemicals? – Summary • The Biofuels and Biochemicals industry refers to the set of companies focused on developing fuels and chemicals from Biomass rather than from fossil fuels • In 2010, approximately 700 million barrels of biofuels were produced globally. Over 45% of this was corn‐based ethanol in the U.S. and >25% produced was sugarcane‐based ethanol in Brazil • Biofuels/ Biochemicals are distinguished as either first , second or third generation. Focus is more on second generation and beyond as first generation is a mature technology — Corn and sugarcane will continue to be the most abundant feedstock for biofuels and biochemicals in the near term — Companies utilizing food‐competitive feedstock (e.g., corn, soy, wheat) face higher price volatility and potential for societal push‐back — Cellulosic feedstock does not face the ―food‐vs.‐fuel‖ argument but requires more specialized and expensive enzymes that are yet to be completely commercialized — Waste is a unique feedstock and companies that can successfully convert the biomass to fuels and chemicals will benefit significantly — ―Energy‐dedicated‖ crops are emerging and will be vital to the growth of cellulosic biofuel and biochemical production — Algae offer the highest oil yields of any biofuel feedstock, but challenges around cost have created challenges for commercial use • Due to the importance of feedstock to the overall value chain, several companies are developing business models and technologies focused on the ―upstream‖ segment of the value chain • Numerous conversion technologies exist each with distinct advantages and disadvantages • The United States and Brazil currently produce and consume the vast proportion of global biofuels due to size of ethanol industries, and is expected to remain the most important countries for biofuel production/consumption in the near‐term • Biofuel and Biochemical companies are aiming to compete in large established markets in fuels and specialty chemicals TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 11
  • 12. What are Biofuels/Biochemicals? • A biofuel/ biochemical is a product made from biomass – organic material with stored chemical energy. While traditional Biofuels/Biochemicals can be made from plant materials such as sugarcane, corn, wheat, vegetable oils, biomass1 constitutes an agriculture residues, grass, wood and algae. important part of the • Biofuels/Biochemicals currently comprise only a small part of today‘s global energy consumption. Liquid energy mix, so far biofuels accounted for a modest 2.7% of global road-transport fuels in 2010 and only 0.6% of the global modern biomass2 use final energy consumption. However, by 2030, this is forecast to increase to 9%, equivalent to 6.5 million makes up only a small barrels of oil a day. share of total global energy consumption • Renewable energy overall (bio-energy,hydro, solar, etc) represented 16.0% of total energy demand in 2010. Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2010 Wind/Solar/Biomass/Geothermal Power Generation 0.7% Nuclear 2.8% Transport Biofuels 0.6% Biomass/Solar/Geothermal/ Hot Water/Heating 1.5% Several economical, Renewable 16.2% political, technological, Fossil and environmental Fuels 81% 16.2% factors will drive growth in the Biofuels/ Chemicals industry Hydropower 3.4% Traditional Biomass 10% Source: Renewables 2011, Global Status Report. Note: 1Traditional biomass means unprocessed biomass, including agricultural waste, forest products waste, collected fuel wood, and animal dung, that is burned in stoves or furnaces to provide heat energy for cooking, heating, and agricultural and industrial processing, typically in rural areas.2Modern bioenergy comprises biofuels for transport, and processed biomass for heat and electricity production. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 12
  • 13. Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth Rates Global Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuels Production, 2005–2010 Biodiesel production 38% 7% In 2010, approximately Ethanol production 23% Year-end 2005-2010 17% (5-year Period) 700 million barrels of 16% Solar hot water/heating 16% biofuels were produced. 2010 3% Over 45% of this was Hyderopower 3% corn‐based ethanol in Geothermal power 4% 3% the U.S. and >25% 25% produced was Concentrating Solar Thermal Power 77% sugarcane‐based Wind Power 27% 25% ethanol in Brazil Solar PV(grid -connected only) 60% 81% 49% Solar PV 72% • Global energy consumption rebounded strongly in 2010 after an overall downturn in 2009, with annual growth of 5.4%. Renewable energy, which had no downturn in 2009, continued its strong growth in 2010 as well. • During the period from the end of 2005 through 2010, total global capacity of many renewable energy technologies – including solar photovoltaic (PV), wind concentrating solar power (CSP), solar water heating systems, and biofuels – grew at average rates ranging from around 15% to nearly 50% annually. • Solar PV increased the fastest of all renewables technologies during this period, followed by biodiesel and wind. For solar power technologies, growth accelerated during 2010 relative to the previous four years. • At the same time, growth in total capacity of wind power held steady in 2010, and the growth rates of biofuels have declined in recent years, although ethanol was up again in 2010. • Hydropower, biomass power and heat, and geothermal heat and power are growing at more ordinary rates of 3–9% per year, making them more comparable with global growth rates for fossil fuels (1–4%, although higher in some developing countries). In several countries, however, the growth in these renewable technologies far exceeds the global average. Source: 1Renewables 2011, Global Status Report. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 13
  • 14. Main Feedstock Sources Crops used for Biofuels/Biochemicals Feedstock is typically the largest component of biofuel & biochemical production cost. Feedstock cost is estimated to represent >30%‐50% of the operating costs of most projects. The main sources of biofuels are: 1. Oil-seed crops: Oil –seed crops include soybean, rapeseed and sunflower. These go through a process called ―transesterification‖ and the oils of these oilseeds are converted into methyl esters. Methyl esters are liquid fuel that can either be blended with petro-diesel or used as pure biodiesel. 2. Grains, cereals and starches: These come from corn, wheat, sugar cane, sugar beet and cassava, which undergo a fermentation process Biofuel Vehicle and Pumps to produce bio-ethanol. 3. Non oilseed crops: Oil from the Jatropha fruit shows most promise. The fruit is poisonous, so it is not affected by the ―food-or-fuel‖ tug of war; and it grows well on arid soils which means it does not need felling of forests. It is very resilient and needs less fertilizer and it can be developed into plantations like any oilseed crop. 4. Organic waste: Waste cooking oil, animal manure and household waste. Waste cooking oils can be converted into biodiesel while the rest are converted to biogas methane. 5. Cellulosic materials: These are grasses, crop waste, municipal waste and wood chips that are converted to ethanol. The conversion process is more complex than the two process aforementioned. There is also the option of converting these to gases such as methane or hydrogen for vehicle use or to power generators. Source: Broker Research and websites. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 14
  • 15. Types of Biofuels Biofuels/Biochemicals are distinguished as either first, second or third generation. Most of the Biofuels today come from corn-based ethanol and sugar-based First generation: Commercially produced using conventional technology. The basic feedstock are seeds, grains, or whole plants ethanol. from crops such as corn, sugar cane, rapeseed, wheat, sunflower seeds or oil palm. These plants were originally selected as food or fodder and most are still mainly used to feed people. The most common first-generation biofuels are bioethanol (currently over 80% of liquid biofuels production by energy content), followed by biodiesel, vegetable oil, and biogas. The current debate over biofuels/ biochemicals produced from food Second generation: Produced from a variety of non-food sources. These include waste biomass, crops has pinned a lot of hope on the stalks of wheat, corn stover, wood, and special energy or biomass crops (e.g. Miscanthus). Second-generation biofuels/biochemicals use biomass to liquid (BTL) technology, by "2nd-generation processes" thermochemical conversion (mainly to produce biodiesel) or fermentation (e.g. to produce produced from crop and forest cellulosic ethanol). Many second-generation biofuels/biochemicals are under development such as biohydrogen, biomethanol, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biohydrogen diesel, and mixed alcohols. residues and from non-food energy crops. The commercial-scale production costs of 2nd-generation biofuels have been estimated by the IEA to be in the range of US $0.80 - 1.00/liter of gasoline equivalent (lge) [US $3.02-$3.79 per gallon] for ethanol and at least US $1.00/liter [$3.79 per gallon] of diesel equivalent for synthetic Second generation conversion diesel. This range broadly relates to gasoline or diesel wholesale prices (measured in USD /lge) technologies are key to progress and when the crude oil price is between US $100-130 /bbl . (However, many companies within SVB‘s universe are estimating crude oil parity without subsidy of between US$60 -80/bbl or $1.50 to sustainability. $2.00/gal at scale). Third generation: Algae fuel, also called oilgae, is a biofuel/biochemical from algae and addressed as a third-generation petroleum replacement. Algae is a feedstock from aquatic cultivation for production of triglycerides (from algal oil) to produce petroleum replacement products. The processing technology is basically the same as for biodiesel from second- generation feedstock. Other third-generation biofuels include alcohols like bio-propanol or bio- butanol, which due to lack of production experience are usually not considered to be relevant as fuels on the market before 2050. Source: UNEP Assessing Biofuels Report. Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 15
  • 16. First Generation Feedstocks Sugar cane has been used to produce bioethanol in Brazil since the 1970s. It is a perennial plant that needs few inputs, such as fertilizers, and has long root systems that can store carbon in the soil. It has a good net Greenhouse Gases (GHG) balance (up to 90% reduction in GHGs from ethanol produced from sugar cane, compared with conventional gasoline). Sugar Cane is one of the most heavily utilized feedstock for biofuels production and the highly developed infrastructure of the sugarcane industry in Brazil will continue to make the country a hot‐spot for Biofuel/BioChemical firms. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Brazilian Sugarcane is not only the most abundant, but the cheapest available feedstock for ethanol production. Brazilian sugarcane offers several economic advantages to corn, which in the Unites States is the principal ethanol crop. Sugarcane produces around 15 dry tons per acre per year yielding roughly 600 gallons of ethanol per acre. Corn is a cereal grain that was domesticated in Central America. Corn can be used as a feedstock to make biobutanol and bioethanol. Corn is the most abundant crop grown in the U.S. and the backbone of the current U.S. Biofuel industry. Approximately 80 million acres of land in the U.S. are dedicated to growing corn, and the U.S. accounts for ~20% of global corn exports. For 2010, the USDA estimates the national corn crop to yield 154.3 bushel/acre, which corresponds to a dry weight of ~3.7 t/acre. Currently, one bushel of corn produces around 2.75 gallons of ethanol equating to 400 to 500 gallons per acre. Corn yields have experienced a long term general uptrend from 70 bushels/acre in 1970 to the current yield as a result of enhanced seed research and development following the mapping of the corn genome. Corn ears are widely used as a feedstock for first‐generation ethanol, but corn stover, the above‐ground portion of the plant that is left in the field after harvest, is increasingly being utilized for second generation ethanol production. Wheat is a grass that is cultivated worldwide. Wheat grain is used to make flour for breads, biscuits, pasta and couscous; and for fermentation to make beer, alcohol or vodka. Wheat can be used as a feedstock to make bioethanol, and it has few sustainability issues. Wheat can also be used to make biobutanol. Sweet sorghum is one of the many varieties of sorghum which have a high sugar content. Sweet sorghum will thrive better under drier and warmer conditions than many other crops and is grown primarily for forage, silage, and syrup production. Sorghum has a very limited breeding history and as a result there has not been the same degree of testing for yield improvements through genetic optimization as in other major biofuel feedstocks such as corn and sugarcane. While sorghum isn‘t as well‐suited as sugarcane for the production of refined sugar, it has value for ethanol, and its high lignocellulosic biomass content opens up the potential for use in the production of additional biofuels. Soybeans are a class of legumes native to East Asia. The crop is primarily harvested as a food source due to its exceptionally high protein content (~40% of dry weight). In addition to their protein, soybeans are also valued for their oil content which accounts for ~20% of the dry weight of the beans. According to the USDA, approximately 17% of soy oil is used in industrial products. These products include biodiesel, inks, paints, plasticizers and waxes, among many others. China is the world‘s largest producer of soybeans oil with more than 10M tons in 2010. Global production of soy oil exceeded 41 million metric tonnes (90 billion pounds) in the 2010/2011 season. Rapeseed is a yellow flowering plant of the mustard family that produces a seed which yields ~40% oil. It naturally contains 45+% euracic acid which is mildly toxic to humans. Rapeseed is often grown as a high‐protein animal feed and also used in lubricants, soaps, and plastics manufacturing. According to the USDA, approximately 30% of rapeseed oil is used in industrial products. In Europe, Rapeseed has become a preferred feedstock for biofuels as it has higher oil yields per unit of land than other crops including soy beans, which only contain ~18‐20% oil. According to the Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, worldwide production was 61million tons in 2011 with China and India being the largest producers at 14.7 million and 7.3 million tons respectively. The European Union accounted for 23 million tons of rapeseed output. Source: Clean Tech Energy Report by Robert Baird. Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 16
  • 17. Second and Third Generation Feedstocks Switchgrass is a perennial warm season grass native to North America. It can grow to heights of almost nine feet and an established stand has a lifespan of up to 10 years. One of its defining characteristics is its large, underground root system which can weigh as much as 6-8 tons per acre, making the plant particularly adept at accumulating carbon dioxide .The energy efficiency of producing ethanol from switchgrass is estimated to be much higher than corn with an energy input to output rate of 1:4 vs. 1:1.3. As reported by the USDA, various switchgrass crops yield 5-9.4 tons per acre. Camelina is an annual flowering plant and member of the mustard family, regarded for its oil properties. It typically stands 1‐3 feet tall, is heavily branched, and produces small seeds high in oil content. It is able to grow effectively on land of marginal quality, needs minimal water input, and can withstand cold climates. Because of its high oil‐yield of 35‐38% (~2x that of soybeans), it is specifically being studied for use in biodiesel applications. Miscanthus is a tall perennial grass closely related to sugar cane. Though native to the tropical and subtropical climates of Africa and Southeast Asia, it is also being grown by at least 10 countries in Europe explicitly for use as an energy feedstock. It has entered into favor due to its high expected commercial yields of 12-13 BDT/acre (as reported by Mendel Biotechnology in LA and MS) with low moisture content in the range of 15‐20% if harvested in late winter or spring. Waste is a unique feedstock since it can often generate additional revenue from tip‐fees, but its heterogeneous characteristic makes it difficult to convert to biofuels and chemicals. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) waste are two waste streams that several companies in the industry are working to convert into fuels and chemicals. According to Pike Research, the market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets, the global market for thermal and biological waste-to-energy technologies is set to reach at least $6.2 billion in 2012 and grow to $29.2 billion by 2022. Jatropha is a genus covering ~150 types of plants, shrubs, and trees which produce seeds with oil content of up to 40%. Making it even more attractive as a feedstock is its ability to grow on poor quality land and its resistance to drought and pests. It is native to South America and typically only grows in tropical or subtropical environments. One drawback of Jatropha is that it also contains toxic matter which necessitates it be carefully processed before use in production. It is estimated that Jatropha nuts are capable of providing up to 2,270 liters of biodiesel per hectare, and the plant is currently the subject of several trials for use in biodiesel applications including a collaborative effort between Archer Daniels Midland, Bayer CropScience AG, and Daimler AG. Southern pine presents a rich biomass source in the Southeastern portion of the U.S. These trees typically reach heights of 60‐120 feet (depending on species) and are characterized by their rounded tops, long needles, and rapid growth rates. According to the DOE, there are roughly 200 million tons of no-merchantable forest material alone and total forestland in the US is estimated to be 750 million acres. Algae offer the highest oil yields of any biofuel feedstock, but issues around capital cost have created challenges for commercial use: Algae are simple‐celled organisms capable of creating complex organic compounds from inorganic molecules through photosynthetic pathways. Interest in using algae as a feedstock for biofuel production has increased rapidly and more than 30 U.S. based firms are now working to commercialize such technology. Algae offer attractive yields estimated to be upward of 4,000 to 5,000 gallons per acre. The DOE considers open pond algal configurations to have the most promise estimating 2012 fuel costs to be $9.28/ gal with a roadmap to $2.27/ gal. Source: Clean tech Energy Report by Robert Baird, June 2011. Note: Litre: Gallon = 1:0.26; Gallon: Barrel = 1: 0.0322; Tonne of Oil Equivalent (toe): Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe) = 1: 7.4. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 17
  • 18. Comparative Yields Energy density refers to the amount Energy Density for Biofuels per Unit of Required Land for Various Feedstock 1 of energy stored in a given system or region of space per unit volume Crop Required Fuel Fuel Energy Fuel Energy Crop Yield (kg raw/kg Produced Density per Hectare Among all the edible oils used for Crop (tons/hectare) fuel) (tons/hectare) (MJ/kg3) (GJ/hectare4) manufacturing biodiesel, palm oil is Oil Rapeseed 3.0 4.7 0.64 43.7 28.0 also the most efficient in terms of Pyrolysis / wood 10.0 2.0 5.0 25.0 125.0 land use, pricing and availability Wheat 2.6 6.2 0.43 35.0 15.0 Algae offer the highest oil yields of Corn 4.2 3.9 1.1 35.0 37.0 any biofuel feedstock, but issues Sugarcane 61.8 18.9 3.3 35.0 115.0 around cost have created challenges for commercial use Sugarbeet 60.0 18.9 3.2 35.0 11.0 Wood Chips 10.0 8.6 1.2 35.0 41.0 Wheat Straw 1.9 7.9 0.25 35.0 9.0 Comparison of Yields for Typical Oil Crops2 Crop: Soybean Camelina Sunflower Jatropha Oil Palm Algae Oil Yield: 1,000- 2.6 6.2 0.43 35.0 15.0 (g/acre/yr) 6,500 Source: 1Global Change Biology, 2Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011. Note: 3,4MJ & GJ: Megajoules and Gigajoules (derived unit of energy or work in the International System of Units, equal to the energy expended (or work done) in applying force through a distance). TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 18
  • 19. Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages of Feedstock Corn Sweet Sorghum Sugarcane Soybean Oil Rapeseed Oil Pine Oil  Ethanol industry  Annual crop – short  Cheapest available crop  Good oil content makes it  Seeds have very high oil  High energy density and P experienced with using growth cycle (90‐120+ (non‐cellulosic) for suitable for biodiesel content by volume at saturated fat content O corn as a feedstock days) allows for multiple ethanol production production ~40% S  Corn stover offers cuts (2‐3) to be made in  Does not have to be  Can be used as an I potential for use in a given year transitioned from a animal feed as well as in T cellulosic fuel  Low water requirements complex carbohydrate to lubricants and plastics applications and adaptable to wide a simple sugar prior to manufacturing I variety of environments fermentation V  Less residual waste  Does not compete as a E biomass from harvesting food source S  Use for corn in biofuels  Lower sugar yields  Due to harvest timelines,  Competes as a food  Shares significant  Burning of peatland to stokes the ―food vs. fuel‖ compared to sugarcane average mills only source demand with Canola oil clear room for new I argument  Yields mixed sugars as operate an average of  Oil content lower than which could add to price plantations leading to S  Subject to commodity opposed to pure sucrose, ~185 days per year many competing crops volatility significant deforestation pricing volatility making it less conducive  Requires high quality used as targets for and GHG emissions S  High quality land required for production of refined land and significant water biofuels U as well as significant sugars and fertilizer inputs  Production of biodiesel E water and fertilizer needs  Vegetative propagation from soybean oil results S can lead to overcrowding in a net energy loss of ~30% Source: Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 19
  • 20. Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages of Feedstock (con’t) Switchgrass Camelina Miscanthus Municipal Solid Waste Jatropha Southern Pine  Reliable biomass yields  Can be grown on  Reliable biomass yields  Can generate a  Can be grown on low  Shuttering of paper & P due its propensity for marginal lands, in cold  Capable of relatively high significant revenue quality land processing mills in U.S. accumulating CO2 climates, and with stream from tip‐fees  Naturally resistant to have led to a growth O yields today  Higher energy content minimal water  Continuously generated drought and pests – surplus S  Can be grown effectively than corn for ethanol  Short crop that can be without fertilizers – less – no need for agriculture though yields shown to  Wood waste offers an I production rotated with wheat and spending be significantly higher inexpensive source of leaching T when irrigated biomass  Wide adaptability and  High oil yields of 35‐38%  Collection and hauling I capable of growth in dry logistics and  Does not compete as a  Trees have longer V climates infrastructure is in place food source as it is growth cycles than other E  ESelf‐seeding, requiring non‐edible energy crops S no replanting after harvesting  Additional research  Additional time/research  Limited adoption thus far  Heterogeneous  Contains toxic matter  Collection processes for required before needed before in North America characteristic makes which must be separated residual wood waste still I commercially viable commercially viable conversion difficult before used in production need development  Studies have found it S dries up soil more than  Often requires  Still requires significant  Rising demand for pulp S other crops which can gasification which can yield improvements globally could provide U reduce surface water carry high CAPEX before economically upward pricing pressures supplies requirements viable at commercial  Cannot be utilized as E scale feedstock by S non‐cellulosic conversion technologies Source: Robert Baird Biomass Almanac July 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 20
  • 21. Petroleum Replacement Overview Market Size Customers Alkylate/ Drop-in Refiners $485 billion Polygas Gasoline/Alkylate Propionic Poly- Automative/ Propanol Propylene Packaging Consumer C3 propylene Products $110 billion Chemical Companies Acrylics Super-Absorbents Acetic Cellulosic Rayon/Filters Anhydride Acetate Consumer Products VAM EVA Paint/Adhesives Paint Companies $180 billion Conversion Chemical Technology Poly-ethylene Packaging Companies Acetic Ethylene glycol PET Ethanol Ethylene C2 Linear a- olefins Jet/Diesel $245 billion Airlines/Dod Acetic Refiners Sales Gasoline Blending $60 billion Refiners Alkylate Drop-in Gasoline Butyric Butanol Butene C4 $1 billion Consumer Products Rubber/Plastics Source: ZeaChem,, Inc.. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 21
  • 22. Conversion Technologies – Fermentation and Fluid Catalytic Cracking Fermentation Fluid Catalytic Cracking Definition: Fermentation is the process by which bacteria such Definition: Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) is a proven process as yeast, convert simple sugars to alcohol and carbon dioxide in the petroleum industry used to convert crude oil into higher through their metabolic pathways. The most common input for value products such as gasoline and naptha. FCC reactions fermentation in the United States is corn, but in warmer climates occur at extremely high temperatures (up to 1,000+ F°) and sugarcane or sugar beet are the principal types of feedstock. use fine, powdery catalysts capable of flowing likely a liquid Resulting alcohols such as ethanol and butanol can be utilized which break the bonds of long‐chain hydrocarbons into smaller as blendstock with gasoline or in the case of butanol, can act as carbon‐based molecules. FCC technology is applied to organic a gallon for gallon replacement sources of carbon such as woody biomass to convert the TECHNOLOGY cellulosic content into usable hydrocarbons with equivalence to Feedstock: Simple sugars – corn and sugarcane are most crude oils – this process is referred to as Biomass Fluid commonly used today in the production of ethanol Catalytic Cracking (BFCC). FCC was first commercialized in Output : Alcohols including ethanol and butanol, and distiller‘s 1942, and is presently used to refine ~1/3 of the U.S.s‘ total grains annual crude volume Feedstock: Feedstock agnostic – can utilize cellulosic biomass Output: Biocrude, gases  Ability to genetically modify metabolic pathways of  Commercially proven technology in the petroleum industry organisms to yield different carbon molecule outputs  Can process low‐cost cellulosic biomass (ethanol, butanol) POSITIVES  Process already demonstrated at commercial scale via first‐generation ethanol production  Common outputs such as ethanol / butanol have existing markets in both fuels and chemicals  Costly to develop/purchase enzymes to break down  High capital costs for facilities cellulosic materials to make simple sugars available for  Proven for petroleum but limited to demonstration testing for ISSUES fermentation biomass  First‐generation feedstock susceptible to commodity price volatility Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 22
  • 23. Conversion Technologies – Anaerobic Digestion and Gasification Anaerobic Digestion Gasification Definition: Anaerobic digestion is the process by which Definition: Gasification is a process by which carbon‐based bacteria decompose wet organic matter in the absence of materials such as coal, petroleum coke, and biomass are oxygen. The result is a byproduct known as biogas which separated into their molecular components by a combination of consists of ~60% methane and ~40% carbon dioxide. Biogas heat and steam, forming a gaseous compound known as can then be combusted in the presence of oxygen to generate synthesis gas or syngas as it is commonly called energy. Effectively any feedstock can be converted to biogas via digestion including human and animal wastes, crop Feedstock flexibility: Feedstock flexible including use of TECHNOLOGY residues, industrial byproducts, and municipal solid waste. municipal solid waste Anaerobic digestion is the same process that created natural gas reserves found throughout the world today Output: Syngas which has the capacity to be used in a variety of applications including the production of transportation fuels, Feedstock: Starches, celluloses, municipal solid waste, food electricity, and heat. Other byproducts include sulphur and slag greases, animal waste, and sewage Output: Biogas  Commercially proven technology  Input flexibility allows costs to be reduced through lower cost  Can be used to process wet organic matter feedstock  Resulting materials can be processed into valuable fertilizer  Energy conversion ratio potentially higher than competing POSITIVES  Utilization of methane to produce biogas reduces impact of technologies because biomass‐to‐liquid (BTL) gasification can convert all of the cellulosic material into transportation GHG emissions from landfill gas fuels  Low capital and costs and potential for low operating cost  Lower emission levels than traditional power production  Slower process than many alternatives  Gas quality suffers from irregularity due to challenges in  Cannot be used to convert lignin removing tar content– energy density ~50% of natural gas ISSUES  Accumulates heavy metals and contaminants in the  High capital and operating costs – this could be reduced in resulting sludge future by co‐location next to feedstock sources  Gas clean‐up has disrupted projects in the past Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 23
  • 24. Conversion Technologies – Pyrolysis and Transesterification Pyrolysis Transesterification Definition: Pyrolysis is the process by which organic materials Definition: Transesterification is the process by which a are decomposed by the application of intense heat in the triglyceride is chemically reacted with an alcohol to create absence of oxygen to form gaseous vapors which when cooled biodiesel and glycerin. While there are a few variants, the form charcoal and/or bio‐oil can potentially be used as a direct predominance of biodiesel is created through base catalyzed fuel substitute or an input for the manufacture of transportation transterification because of its high conversion yields and fuels comparatively low pressure and temperature requirement. TECHNOLOGY Transesterification is necessary because vegetable oils/animal Feedstock: Capable of using a wide variety of feedstock fats cannot be used directly to run in combustion engines including agriculture crops, solid waste, and woody biomass because of their high levels of viscosity (currently most common) Feedstock: Soybean oil, palm oil, jatropha oil, rapeseed oil, Output: Bio‐oil (energy density of ~16.6 megajoules/liter) which animal fats, food grease, etc. must be processed further before it can be utilized as a transportation fuel. It also yields syngas and biochar Outputs: Biodiesel and glycerol  Flexibility of feedstock diversifies risk related to feedstock  Results in lower‐viscosity biodiesel allowing it to replace supply/demand pressures petroleum in diesel engines  Marketable biochar output provides secondary revenue  Glycerin byproduct can be sold to generate secondary stream from production revenue stream POSITIVES  Low cost and high availability of methanol and sodium hydroxide reduces input costs  Relatively low reaction temperature of 60 degrees C keeps utility costs down  Potentially corrosive characteristics requiring specialized  Requires separation/recovery of base catalyst / glycerin from components in fuel systems to adequately house it solution ISSUES  Viscosity increases during storage meaning it must be used  Free fatty acid and water contamination can result in more frequently than traditional fossil fuels negative reactions Source: Robert Baird, Clean Tech report July 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 24
  • 25. Conversion Technologies – Syngas Fermentation Syngas Fermentation Definition: Syngas Fermentation is the process by which gasification breaks the carbon bonds in the feedstock and converts the organic matter into synthesis gas. The syngas is sent to bioreactor where microorganisms directly convert the syngas to a fuels and/or chemicals TECHNOLOGY Feedstock: Capable of using a wide variety carbon containing feedstocks including agricultural crops, solid waste, woody biomass and fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas Output: Ethanol, 2.3-BDO, Acetic Acid, Acetone, Propanol, Butanol, MEK, Isoprene, Acrylic Acid, Butadiene, Succinic Acid  Process does not rely on expensive enzymes or pretreatment chemicals thus operating costs should be lower than non-gasification based technology POSITIVES  Ability to convert nearly all feedstock into energy with minimal by-products. Microorganisms are able to produce only one fuel/chemical under low temperature and pressure  Imperative to keep the right nutrient and chemical balance in order to keep the microorganisms alive and productive. Any contaminants could spread quickly through the bioreactor ISSUES  Reliability and Continuous Operations: Since the organisms live off the energy contained in the synthesis gas, it is critical that they continue to be through a well operating system design Source: Coskata Inc, LanzaTech Inc, Advanced Biofuels USA “Syngas Fermentation, The Third Pathway for Cellulosic Ethanol. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 25
  • 26. The Importance of Biofuels/Biochemicals TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 26
  • 27. Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth – Summary • The sector has received increasing attention from both public and private investors due to several growth drivers including the desire for energy independence, the increasing demand for liquid fuels for transportation especially in emerging markets, technological advances across the industry‘s value chain and environmental concerns (Green house gas (GHG) emissions). The most important driver, however, spurring investment in the industry is the continued volatility and high price of crude oil. • Biofuels/Biochemicals constitute a 3% share in the total global chemicals & fuels market in 2010 and is expected to touch 17% in 2025. • As ―easy― conventional oil resources continue to decline and more expensive nonconventional liquid sources make up the difference, biofuels/ biochemicals will play an increasing role in diversifying the liquid energy landscape. • Liquids demand is growing mainly driven by rapidly-growing non- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and will be met by supply growth from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Americas. China (+8 million barrels per day), India (+3.5 million barrels per day), and the Middle East (+4 million barrels per day) account for nearly all of the net global increases. • Liquid biofuels accounted for a modest 2.7% of global road-transport fuels in 2010 , but will play an expanded role of meeting liquid demand. • OPEC‘s critical position in the oil market grows given its oil reserve position while the Americas also play an expanding role by utilization of new recovery technologies in tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands. • Exporting oil producing nations, ―petro-states‖, rely heavily on oil revenues to support their economies (50-90% of GDP). Oil price decreases can cause major deficits, budget cuts, considerable social turmoil, and political change creating an incentive for petro states to keep production in line with demand. • Government legislation is driving the adoption of renewable fuels — In February 2010, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) submitted its final rule for Renewable Fuels Standard 2 (RFS-2), setting forth volume targets of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels produced in the U.S. by 2022 with 21 billion being advanced biofuels. — The EU is targeting 10% of transport energy from renewables by 2020, counting both sustainable biofuels and electric vehicles. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 27
  • 28. Compelling Market Opportunity Opportunities for bioproducts will Bio Based Market Opportunity not only be fuels based but focused on the whole barrel. The gasoline market accounts for about 45% of Bio Based Market 1.5 approx.$1.4 trillion the barrel of crude while there are many different chemicals inside a Fuels (Bio) Chemicals (Bio) Trillions of Dollars (U.S.) barrel of oil. A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude 1.0 equates to about 45 gallons of petroleum products which includes CAGR (as a % of the total barrel) motor 16% gasoline (45%), distillate fuel oil 0.5 (29%), jet fuel (9.4%) petroleum coke (5.5%), still gas (4.4%). Bio Based Market $148 billion 0.0 2010 2025 Total Chemicals & Fuels Market $5.0 trillion $8.0 trillion Bio-based Share 3.0% 17% Source: Renmatix, International Energy Outlook 2009, Industrial biotechnology analysis 2010, Arthur D. Little – ICIS; World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency 2010; USDA Biobased Product Projections 2008; US Energy Information Administration. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 28
  • 29. Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth The rising cost of oil will create an Crude Oil Monthly spot prices ($ per barrel)1 incentive for producers of petroleum‐derived products to seek $160.0 The volatility and price increases of oil are $140.0 the most significant drivers in the growth of renewable alternatives that provide the Biofuel/Biochemical Industry: The $120.0 greater stability in pricing. $100.0 increasing demand for petroleum products, supply shocks, and other factors have led to $80.0 volatile and high oil prices over the past Strong public sentiment for the U.S. $60.0 decade. In January 2000, European Brent $40.0 Crude spot prices were below $24/barrel to reduce its dependence on foreign before peaking at over $140/barrel in 2008. $20.0 petroleum reserves is thus one of the $0.0 After some price relief in the midst of the global economic downturn, Brent Crude is major drivers of the renewable fuel ~$97/barrel currently, representing a CAGR of industry. ~13.5% from 2000‐2011. U.S. oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved Net Imports of Oil2 transport efficiency; EU imports to overtake those of U.S. around 2015 Million barrels/day Biofuels and Biochemicals help reduce U.S. and China expected to be the largest 14.0 dependence on foreign oil: U.S. reliance on 2000 2010 2035 foreign imports has increased significantly importer by 2020. 12.0 since the mid‐1980‘s. It can be argued that as 10.0 the world‘s current economic superpower and the largest consumer of petroleum, the U.S. 8.0 will continue to command a reliable oil supply 6.0 from producing nations. However, with the emergence of rapidly growing and 4.0 industrializing economies in China and India, 2.0 the global supply of oil may be spread increasingly thin putting additional upward 0.0 pressure on energy prices China India EU U.S. Japan Source: 1Bloomberg, 2World Energy Outlook 2011. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 29
  • 30. Drivers of Biofuels/Biochemicals Growth (con’t) By 2035, the EIA projects that Vehicles per 1000 people in Selected Markets1 transportation sector will account for 800 73% of all liquid fuels consumption. 700 Increase in transportation applications driving 2010 2035 growth in liquid fuels consumption: The Energy 600 Key drivers of transportation growth Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. 500 consumption of liquid fuels will increase from 19.1 million include population expansion and 400 barrels per day in 2009 to more than 21.9 million gallons rising real disposable income which 300 per day by 2035. The increase is expected to be driven 200 almost entirely by an increase in the use of liquid fuels for leads to more frequent travel . transportation applications which is forecasted to grow 100 0 from 13.6 million barrels per day in 2009 to 16.1 million barrels per day by 2035 . The global passenger vehicle fleet United European China India Middle East States Union doubles to 1.7 billion in 2035; most cars are sold outside the OECD by Commodity Food Price Index vs. CPI2 2020, making non-OECD policies key Cellulosic biofuel technologies unlock non‐food feedstock and reduce input cost volatility: Cellulose (corn 400.0 to global oil demand. stover, switchgrass, miscanthus, woodchips etc) is not used 350.0 for food and can be grown in all parts of the world. The entire Million 300.0 barrels/day 250.0 plant can be used when producing cellulosic products. While 200.0 The development and subsequent the U.S. is the world‘s largest producer of the crop, corn 150.0 100.0 scale‐up of cellulosic technologies competes as a food source and is subject to significantly 50.0 more price volatility than residual waste biomass. Over the 0.0 offers a clear advantage to reducing past decade the value of the IMF‘s Commodity Food Price price volatility of biofuel feedstock Index increased at a CAGR of 8.7% annually. This is ~3.6x faster than the rate of inflation as measured by the Commodity Food Price Index CPI and will play major role in driving Consumer Price Index which had a CAGR of 2.4% annually down the costs of renewable over the same period. From 2000 to 2011, the maximum 12- Relative Prices of Wood, Sugar, Soy Oil, month price increase was 18% for pine woodchips versus fuels/chemicals. 50% for corn, 46% for sugar and 51% for West Texas Corn, Nat Gas and Crude Oil Since 20003 Intermediate crude according to average quarterly data from 500 450 Timber Mart-South, the USDA and the EIA. 400 Index (Q1 2000=100) Million barrels/day 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 World raw sugar (No.11, spot) Corn (No.2 yellow, Chicago spot) Source: 1World Energy Outlook 2011, 2Bloomberg, 3EIA, DOE, Timber Mart-South. US Nat Gas Industrial Price WTI Crude (Spot, FOB Cushing, OK) Note: OECD- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Pine Pulpwood (Delivered AL) TABLE OF CONTENTS The Biofuels and Biochem Industry 30