A broad overview of what business and society will look like as the 2020 pandemic subsides. Find ways to ethically profit from the chaos and the opportunity, and to help your fellow man.
Published by Scott Perry of Sperry Media -- Marketing Consultant, CNN Commentator, Author of the #1 Amazon bestseller 'Snapchat 101 for Adults,' founder of New Music Tipsheet and LA Tech Digest.
2. MARCH 12, 2020
Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson announce
that they have tested positive for CoronaVirus
* @scottperry * April 20202
3. 3 * @scottperry * April 2020
FRIDAY THE 13TH
THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL
• MASS ACCUMULATION of food, toilet paper
• MASSIVE LAYOFFS as businesses shut down
• DIGITAL RAPTURE real-world moves to cloud
• EVERYBODY BECAME A BREAD MAKER
4. WHO LOST?
• MASS GATHERING: Theaters, Parks, Malls, Casinos, College Campuses,
Churches, Gyms
• EVENTS / ENTERTAINMENT: Conferences, Film Productions, Sports, Concerts
• TRAVEL / TRANSPORT: Cruises, Airlines, Trains, Uber, Scooters, Hotels, Airbnb
• BRICK & MORTAR: Restaurants, Bars, Salons, Retail (Mom & Pop to Chain)
• ONLINE RETAIL: Anyone with nonessential inventory, massive debt, anyone
relying on drop-shipping (from China) or Amazon for fulfillment
• REAL ESTATE: Purchasing or leasing of Business / Personal Space
• HEDGE FUNDS: Forced liquidations by overleveraged traders, triggered by bots
• STATES, CITIES: Tax revenue plummets, emergency / support expenses rise
4 * @scottpery * April 2020
5. WHO WON?
• GROCERY STORES: Panic shopping, stockpiling = empty shelves, mass hiring
• DELIVERY SERVICES: Groceries (Amazon, Instacart) moreso than Restaurants (Grubhub)
• HOME ENTERTAINMENT: Netflix & YouTube having to *downgrade* quality to ease strain
• VIDEOGAMES / ESPORTS: International multiplayer usage / viewing — Twitch, Apps, Consoles
• VIDEO / CONFERENCING: Zoom, Webex, HouseParty, FB / IG Live are having their moments
• ONLINE LEARNING: Whether online-only, or extension of real schools / gyms, grew up overnight
• SOCIAL NETWORKS: Exponential usage (but a lower CPM as ad spending declines)
• WORKPLACE COMMUNICATIONS: Zoom, Slack, DocuSign, GitHub more important than ever
• TELEHEALTH: Less-sick / more cautious patients video call nurses and doctors
• GOVERNMENT CONTRACTORS: Repurposed factories, cleaning, disposal, supply firms
• HEALTH, HOME SECURITY as people lock down and load up on personal care
* @scottperry * April 20205
6. WHAT’S NEXT?
After 2-3 months of Social Isolation
+ the establishment of new habits and patterns
THINGS ARE NOT GOING BACK
TO THE WAY THEY USED TO BE
A LOT OF PEOPLE’S WORLDS
HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY…
Many will realize just how non-essential
certain Non-Essential Goods really are
There will be a large portion of the population
that WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
if proper support channels are not reinforced
6 * @scottperry * April 2020
7. THE BIG QUESTION IS…
How do you
ETHICALLY
benefit from these trends?
7 * @scottperry * April 2020
8. WHAT’S NEXT?
MACRO TRENDS
• REAL ESTATE, AUTO will take a LONG time to recover from overhang
• EVENTS, TRAVEL will face issues concerning personal safety
• BANKING will struggle as large-scale projects are axed, consumers
spend / borrow less
• CONSTRUCTION will shift from new projects to repurposing
commercial, upgrading residential (a New Green Deal would help)
• AGRICULTURE needs to repurpose for CPG / restaurant client mix in
order to minimize waste, meet increased demand for healthy staples
• MANUFACTURING / DISTRIBUTION will adjust to the changing
needs of consumers, products, supply chain
8 * @scottperry * April 2020
9. WHAT’S NEXT?
MACRO TRENDS
• MEDIA / ENTERTAINMENT will involve smaller productions, green
screen, lo-fi / home quality, esports, communal viewing
• CONSUMER ELECTRONICS will better enable self-broadcast,
connected viewing, faster processing, massive bandwidth
• BEAUTY & APPAREL will be more toned down, emphasizing
function over flair, self-care over salon treatments
• MEDICINE / HEALTH will boom as companies move manufacturing
to US, develop better monitoring tools, preventative care
• MARKETING will focus more on measurable ROI with influencers,
online-event integration instead of flashy outdoor experiences
9 * @scottperry * April 2020
10. WHAT’S NEXT?
• ALL FOR ME, NONE FOR YOU: As with 2017
tax cuts, bailout funds will favor larger, wealthy
• MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT, PAY CUTS:
Fewer benefits, steep competition for next gig
• OFFICE / RETAIL VACANCIES WILL SOAR
and repurposed for local storage & distribution
10 * @scottperry * April 2020
11. WHAT’S NEXT?
SOCIETAL
• SIGH OF RELIEF, WORLD UNITY, COMING TOGETHER
will quickly be replaced by…
• TRIBAL DISTRUST magnified between generations, races,
political parties, religions
• GROWING DICHOTOMIES of Enlightened Seekers vs Trash
Consumption (Yoga vs Tiger King — find wins at extreme margins)
• MILLENNIAL CROWDS BREAK OFF INTO PODS as the adult
cool kids’ table shrinks, migrate to multiple, smaller, private Zooms
• SOCIAL STRATA JUMPING relies more on virtual status rather
than real-world co-mingling (college campuses, house parties)
11 * @scottperry * April 2020
12. WHAT’S NEXT?
RETAIL
• DELIVERY IS THE NORM: Prime owns the market, leaving crumbs for any #2
• SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST FOR LOCAL: Mom & Pop harnesses multiple
platforms to empathetically connect to customers, to stay in business
• AMAZON / QVC / EBAY / SHOPIFY become the four pillars of retail (amplified
by Instagram Stories, Pinterest)
• DIY CREATION & SELLING as the unemployed find new ways of making
money (your seeing that right now as crafters make face masks)
• RESELL grows even larger as home entrepreneurs use LetGo, Poshmark,
Craigslist, others to offload excess belongings
• LOCALIZED FOOD & GOODS EXCHANGES WILL GROW based on barter
and trade amongst communities, church groups, school groups
* @scottperry * April 202012
13. WHAT’S NEXT?
HEALTH
• MENTAL HEALTH CARE, SOCIAL SERVICES GROW for
addiction, depression, abuse, divorce
• LEGALIZATION of marijuana will be fast-tracked to raise taxes
and placate the underemployed
• PREMIUM HEALTH GOODS JUST GOT MORE EXPENSIVE as
upper classes pay up for self-care, immuno-boosting, and
diagnostics, but…
• OBESITY / DIABETES CASES GO THROUGH THE ROOF,
creating more need for…
• APP-BASED NUTRITION, EXERCISE REWARDS PROGRAMS
13 * @scottperry * April 2020
14. WHAT’S NEXT?
TRACKING
• PERSONAL SAFETY / HEALTH SCANNING further integrated
into home, auto, apparel
• BIOMETRIC TRUST VERIFICATION SYSTEMS for entry into
domiciles, offices (Ring, FitBit, Apple Watch, thermal cameras)
• PAPER MONEY IS PHASED OUT, CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
GO ALL-IN
• YOUR DATA IS YOUR ID: Algos soar on social, retail, banking:
Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, Amazon, Chime already lead the way
• FURTHER LOSS OF PRIVACY as government commandeers
location, usage data for “safety”
14 * @scottperry * April 2020
15. WHAT’S NEXT?
HOME
• BABY BOOM: Goods and services built to
accommodate a new generation of healthy babies
• FORT HOME: Spending grows to secure the home,
build out home offices
• PERSONAL SPACE will continue to be the ultimate
status symbol (think ‘Parasite’)
• URBAN FLIGHT as generations rethink need to be so
closely clustered / Remote Work becomes the norm
15 * @scottperry * April 2020
16. WHAT’S NEXT?
FOOD PREP
• HOME GARDENS will flourish as families become
more self-reliant upon their own backyards
• HOME COOKING / SHOWS thrive due to habit
changes + financial necessity
• HEALTHY, PORTIONED MEAL DELIVERY
SERVICES must consolidate to become profitable
• IN-HOME CARE FROM TRUSTED PROS WILL
GROW: Mani / Pedi, Dye / Cut, Private Chefs
* @scottperry * April 202016
17. WHAT’S NEXT?
FITNESS
• INDOOR ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GROW as
streaming yoga / workouts replace gyms
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WILL BOOM (hopefully) as
people pack trails, enjoy nature instead of malls
• HIGH-END CLUBS will become more exclusive for
those deemed wealthy / healthy enough to belong
• MASS-MARKET GYMS, already dubious of health,
must reassure members that equipment is germ-free
17 * @scottperry * April 2020
18. WHAT’S NEXT?
FASHION
• INCONSPICUOUS CONSUMPTION as upper classes find new ways to
quietly signal status (Moncler), especially if face masking continues
• TIGHT / FITNESS CLOTHING TO ACCENTUATE YOUTH, HEALTH
• SURVIVAL FASHION inspired by Star Wars, Hunger Games, Blade
Runner, SWEATPANTS will emerge, evolve
• ASIAN-INSPIRED DEFENSIVE / SAFETY FASHION will influence
coming seasons with mix of cute & cool
• PREPPY / BUSINESS CASUAL IS OUT in a 50’s / 60’s-era style
revolution (Mad Men vs Hippies)
• CREATURE COMFORTS: smaller, more affordable gifts (*cough*
SWEATPANTS *cough*) will be given this holiday season
18 * @scottperry * April 2020
19. WHAT’S NEXT?
FUND RAISING
• VC FUNDING FACES NEW CHALLENGES: cutting
losses / shuttering underfunded portfolio companies,
raising money for new funds
• STARTUPS pivot, close, get aquihired, or sell off IP
• HYPERFOCUS on health, data, environmental initiatives
• INVESTORS have zero tolerance of Growth At All Costs,
demand REAL growth metrics
• ALTERNATIVE LENDING (The Mafia) as average people
cannot borrow from traditional sources
19 * @scottperry * April 2020
20. WHAT’S NEXT?
WORK / EDUCATION
• ONLINE LEARNING will expand from a “nice to have”
to a “must-do” for educators
• VR / AR for remote travel, entertainment, education,
especially when integrated into gaming systems
• REMOTE / WORK FROM HOME: businesses
increase spending to secure and monitor at-home
work activity, offer buildout bonuses for key talent
• WORKPLACE EFFICIENCY SOFTWARE, AI, BOTS,
FACTORY ROBOTS to optimize workflow, hire less
* @scottperry * April 202020
21. WHAT’S NEXT?
ZOOM ZOOM ZOOM
(Or Somebody Else if Zoom Can’t Fix Security)
• AT-HOME FLAIR becomes more important as your
Zoom backdrop dictates status
• ZOOM IS THE NEW TGIFRIDAYS as coworkers
continue to awkwardly mingle over drinks at home
• ZOOM IS THE NEW SPEAKEASY as membership in
private groups is crucial to social success
• ZOOM IS THE NEW YOUTUBE with regularly-
scheduled interactive broadcasts, pod-based
commenting / learning / events
* @scottperry * April 202021
22. WHAT’S NEXT?
THE LITTLE SCREEN
• SCREEN TIME EXPLODES as kids use devices
for CONNECTION as much as CONSUMPTION
• CELEBRITIES GET MORE REAL as they build
new programming on top of existing podcast /
live-streaming channels
• AT-HOME STARS continue to grow / gain parity
with (and surpass) Broadcast as traditional news
and talk shows degrade quality
22 * @scottperry * April 2020
23. WHAT’S NEXT?
LIVE / EVENTS
• BALANCING THE NEED FOR HUMANS TO CONNECT IN REAL
LIFE — WITH THE ASSURANCE OF PERSONAL SAFETY — WILL
BE PARAMOUNT IN REGROWING ANY BUSINESS
• LIVE AIN’T GONNA BE THE SAME for bars, concerts, sports,
churches, and other mass gatherings
• SERIOUSLY. When you have been told for 12 weeks, “Walk out the
door and you die,” it is going to be HARD for people to go back to
their regularly-scheduled programming, especially if they are BROKE,
OUT OF WORK, and own a perfectly-functioning big-screen TV.
• ORGANIZERS must find ways to program events and monetize mass
viewership / participation, despite a huge short-term drop in revenue
23 * @scottperry * April 2020
24. WHAT’S NEXT?
IN CONCLUSION
• ONLY THE BEST OF THE BEST WILL SURVIVE
• RECENT TECH TRENDS HAVE ACCELERATED,
FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE
• OPPORTUNITIES EXIST AT THE MARGINS
• THIS RESET IS A SOCIETAL NIGHTMARE, BUT IS
ALSO AN ENVIRONMENTAL GIFT
• PLEASE MOVE FORWARD WITH RESPECT AND
REGARD FOR YOUR BROTHERS & SISTERS
* @scottperry * April 202024