What means economical growth, rollover migration and urbanisation for China and the world? Input presentation for a Social Mobility workshop.

1. SUSTAINABLE CHINA?
SAM Forum, 27.01.2009
Dirk Jehmlich, General Manager Asia-Pacific >> 1
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2. THE WORLD IS URBANIZING.
CHINA FASTEST.
Sustainable China? >> 2
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3. IN 2025 CHINA WILL HAVE
221 CITIES WITH A
POPULATION OF MORE THAN
1 MILLION. EUROPE HAS 35
TODAY.
McK, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 3
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4. 800 MILLION CHINESE WILL
LIVE IN CITIES BY 2020.
930 MILLION BEFORE 2030.
UN, 2004
Sustainable China? >> 4
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5. 700 MILLION OF THEM WILL
German Center for Industry and Trade, Shanghai, 2007
HAVE WESTERN SPENDING
CAPACITY BY 2015?
Sustainable China? >> 5
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6. THEY WANT TO MOVE OUT
FROM THEIR PARENTS INTO
BIGGER APARTMENTS, WORK
IN OFFICES AND DRIVE
THEIR OWN CARS.
Sustainable China? >> 6
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7. MEANS…
Sustainable China? >> 7
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8. 40 BILLION SQM OF FLOOR
SPACE WILL BE BUILT IN 5
MILLION BUILDINGS UNTIL
2025.
McK, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 8
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9. 50,000 OF THESE
BUILDINGS COULD BE
SKYSCRAPERS = 10 NEW
YORK CITIES
McK, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 9
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10. THIS MEANS 1 NEW BEIJING
EVERY YEAR FOR 35 YEARS.
35 X BEIJING = 2 X THE
TOTAL BUILT VOLUME OF
CHINA.
Sustainable China? >> 10
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11. 5 BILLION SQM STREETS
WILL BE PAVED UNTIL 2025
= A TWO LANE ROAD 40 X
AROUND THE WORLD.
McK, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 11
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12. TO HOST 140 MILLION CARS
ON THE ROADS BY 2020.
China Daily, 2004
Sustainable China? >> 12
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13. BUT STILL, SHANGHAI’S
TRAFFIC WILL EXCEED ITS
ROAD CAPACITY THREE
TIMES.
China Daily, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 13
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14. EVEN THOUGH 64% OF
PEOPLE RANK THE CURRENT
TRAFFIC SITUATION AS ‘BAD’
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
OR ‘VERY BAD’, 75% EXPECT
TO OWN A CAR IN 2020.
Sustainable China? >> 14
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15. 41% OF THOSE WHO NOW
TRAVEL BY NON-CAR
METHODS HOPE SOON TO BE
DRIVING. THOSE PRESENTLY
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
IN CARS INSIST THEY WILL
KEEP ON USING THEM.
Sustainable China? >> 15
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16. BY 2050 CHINA WILL HAVE
ALMOST AS MANY CARS AS
THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS
TODAY.
Economist, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 16
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17. TWO MILLION MORE CARS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE TO
BEIJING'S ROADS BY 2012.
China Daily, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 17
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18. THEY WILL NEED ANOTHER
60 SQ KM OF PARKING
SPACE = THE TOTAL AREA
WITHIN THE 2ND RING ROAD
AND AT LEAST 1.3 BILLION
China Daily, 2008
LITERS OF GAS EACH YEAR.
Sustainable China? >> 18
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19. IT WILL BE DENSE. 17,150
PEOPLE PER SQKM IN
SHENZHEN; 13,400 IN
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
SHANGHAI; 11,500 IN
BEIJING.
Sustainable China? >> 19
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20. URBAN EXPANSION IS
CONCENTRATED
IN A
MINORITY
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
OF CHINA.
Sustainable China? >> 20
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21. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 21
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22. SEPARATE IT FROM
CHINA AND YOU GET:
PEOPLE’S URBANITY OF CHINA
Sustainable China? >> 22
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23. PUC AREA IS ONLY 1/3 OF
THE USA AND YET PUC’S
POPULATION IN 2020 WILL
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
BE MORE THAN 1.5 TIMES OF
(EUROPE + USA).
Sustainable China? >> 23
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24. 96% OF…
CHINA’S POPULATION,
CHINA’S GDP,
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
CHINA’S ARABLE LAND.
Sustainable China? >> 24
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26. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 26
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27. THE EMERGENCE OF A
SINGLE MEGALOPOLIS OF
OVER 470 MILLION
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
INHABITANTS.
Sustainable China? >> 27
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28. INHABITANTS = CONSUMERS
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 28
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29. CONSUMERS CAUSE
CONSUMPTION.
Sustainable China? >> 29
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30. CONSUMPTION CONSUMES
RESOURCES.
Sustainable China? >> 30
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31. BUT WE ARE LIVING IN AN
AGE OF RESOURCE SCARCITY.
Sustainable China? >> 31
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32. CHINA OFFERS GREAT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL
INDUSTRIES. BUT THESE
OPPORTUNITIES ARE TIED TO
SERIOUS CHALLENGES.
Sustainable China? >> 32
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33. AGRICULTURAL GROUND
China State Environmental Protection Administration, 2007
AFFECTED BY ACID RAIN
NOW ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF
CHINA’S TOTAL USABLE
LAND.
Sustainable China? >> 33
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34. HEAVY METAL-TAINTED
FOODS AMOUNT TO 12
Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008
MILLION TONS PER ANNUM,
WITH ECONOMIC DAMAGE
AMOUNTING TO 20 BILLION
YUAN.
Sustainable China? >> 34
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35. POLLUTION HAS MADE
Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008
CANCER THE NATION’S NO. 1
KILLER. LUNG CANCER
CASES GREW UP 18.6% IN
2006 FROM 2005.
Sustainable China? >> 35
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36. ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM
AIR AND WATER POLLUTION
TOTALED 781 BILLION YUAN
IN 2007.
World Bank, 2007
Sustainable China? >> 36
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37. SOCIAL COST OF POLLUTION
NOW AMOUNTS TO 8-13% OF
Pan Yue, Vice Chairman of the CNEMC, 2006
GDP.
Sustainable China? >> 37
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38. STILL…
Sustainable China? >> 38
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39. CHINESE CONSUMERS WILL
DOUBLE THEIR FOOD
CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2020.
CHINA WILL ACCOUNT FOR
http://www.foodnavigator.com
1/3 OF WORLD MEAT
CONSUMPTION.
Sustainable China? >> 39
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40. 48% WANT TO COMMUTE BY
CAR.
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 40
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41. 63% WANT TO OWN A CAR.
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 41
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42. 75% DREAM OF HAVING A
GARDEN.
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 42
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43. 79% A SPACIOUS HOME.
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China? >> 43
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44. AND 90% WANT TO LIVE IN
A SUSTAINABLE
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
ENVIRONMENT.
Sustainable China? >> 44
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45. BUT…
Sustainable China? >> 45
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46. s
fish’
the
h
e bot
v
’t ha paw
an r’s eat it too.
c
e beaae and
You th k
andt have your c
tail can’ u
, yo
– or
Sustainable China? >> 46
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47. THIS IS WHERE
SUSTAINABILITY COMES
INTO THE GAME.
Sustainable China? >> 47
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48. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers
–What if you built the whole mass –Politics: China will be in transition –Sustainability in China is crucial for
of Western Europe in 20 years from centralized China to a United national security.
and 400 million urbanites then States of China. sustainability = peace
move in?
–Economics: Sustainability will be –Environmental pollution consumes
key to sustain economic growth and a serious share of economic growth
–What are impacts on brands, increase living standards. sustainability = profit
products and services?
–Society: China will be dominated by –Resource scarcity and wastage of
a urban middle class. resources risk global competiveness
–What are emerging challenges sustainability = growth
–Technology: China will be a global
and opportunities for you?
–High-speed urbanization
powerhouse for R&D and production
and a lab for new technical and sustainability = future
–What does it mean for Europe if social innovations.
R&D, production and
–Consumption: Shift from Made in
consumption all shift to Asia?
China to Made for China.
–Resources: Massive demand for raw
–What are quick wins of
materials, energy, skills and food
sustainable behaviour for each
outpace supply
stakeholder?
–How can planet earth deal with a
billion new middle class
consumers (long-term
achievements)?
Sustainable China? >> 48
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49. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers
–How will consumption patterns –Economic growth: GDP will fourfold
Consumption Pattern
be affected by shifts of wealth? until 2020; EUR 74 billion
–Qualities: efficiency, identity, investment for housing &
design, authenticity, quality, infrastructure
–What is the impact of comfort, convenience
–Urbanization: 400 mio new
immigration on market demand?
–Behaviours: access, value for urbanites by 2020
money, diversification
–How will increased global –Migration: 96% of China’s GDP is
distribution of talent change the consumed in east China
corporate landscape? Migration –Weak social security: 300 to 600
–Global: Talent Tango – learn in the billion USD by 2020 (best case USD
–Will we have climate migrants? 400 per capita)
West, earn in the East
–Growing income: 700 mio.
–National: from west to east; rollover
–Will walls be built up or will consumers with western spending
migration
migration flow more freely? capacity in 2015
–Climate: soil erosion, deforestation
–Environment: 130 mio. hectares of
and desertification will force millions
–What are corresponding of northern China’s arable land is
to move
investment opportunities? shrinking; EUR 39 billion
–Barriers: barrier-free migration for investment for ecological and
educated workforce only environmental projects
–Individualization: 79% of young
Chinese assume to live without
parents by 2020
Social Mobility in China >> 49
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50. Thank you!
Hamburg | Beijing
Dirk Jehmlich
General Manager Asia-Pacific
研究中心
Trendbüro
#2108 Xintai Building | 8 Xiaguangli | Chaoyang District | 100016 Beijing | China
Email: d.jehmlich@trendbuero.com | http://www.trendbuero.com
Contact >> 50
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